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Sunday, January 11, 2026

US Economy -- On Fire In A Good Way -- January 11, 2026

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See website disclaimer. 

From the x-files. 

This is "just nuts." In a good way:

US economy -- on fire in a good way -- what investors may be seeing:

  • 4Q25 GDP: looking at 7%
  • jobs: looking good for US citizens; non-US citizens losing jobs;
  • TSMC: the buck stops here ... for "everyone" 
  • GOOG: hitting on all 16 cylinders
  • NVDA: hitting on all 8 cylinders
  • AMD: needs an unscheduled tune-up 
  • MU: hitting on all 4 cylinders
    • announces largest ever megafab outside NYC --what's that all about -- link here;
    • see below the fold 
  • AAPL: engine light on
  • QCOM: with serious front-end shimmy
  • BA: ready for take-off
  • WMT: looking like a Ferrari
  • TGT: many feel differently, but to me, starting to look like an Edsel
    • may be a great trading stock but I don't much there for a long-term investment 
  • BRK-B: parked in long-term parking; saving money but not getting anywhere 
  • CAT with dynamic CEO -- Jim Umpleby -- look at that resume -- see wiki. 
    • highly recommend: a meaningful conversation with ChatGPT regarding Jim Umpleby
    • Umpleby reminds me a lot of the early Jack Welch before Welch transformed GE into a financial behemoth 

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Micron -- Huge Fab Facility -- Syracuse, NY

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Amazon has now replaced BRK in my portfolio for any new money; Amazon has taken the role of BRK in my my portfolio. AMZN is not a new position; it's been in the portfolio for quite some time.
  • Longer version here. 
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World At War -- Following Successful Attack On Iranian Nuclear Facilities; Hamas In Gaza; Successful Extrication Of Maduro From Veneuela; DHS Will Now Send In "100s" More ICE Agents To Minneapolis; Trump Considering Attack On Iran; Ukraine-Putin Still At War; Trump Plans To Take Greenland One Way Or Another -- January 11, 2026

Locator: 49882ARCHIVES.

For the archives,  subject line says it all:

  • following successful attack on Iranian nuclear facilities; took out all radar sites;
    • Iran is flying blind;  
  • destroying Hamas in Gaza; 
  • successful extrication of Maduro from Veneuela; 
  • DHS will now send In "100s" more ICE agents to Minneapolis; 
  • Trump considering attack on Iran; 
  • Ukraine-Putin still at war; 
  • Trump has given fair warning to Mexico, Colombia on drug cartels;
  • Cuba's existential problem after Maduro removed from Venezuela;
  • Hegseth not taking any pushback from retired general officers; 
  • Trump plans to take Greenland one way or another -- biggest pushback? From his own generals. GOP in US Congress will take big gamble stopping Trump on this. How much political capital will each side be willing to give?
  • when does Trump sleep?
  • futures, equities: flat Sunday night, 5:00 p.m. CT --  
  • WTI: $59.12 -- Sunday night, 5:00 p.m. CT --  

Trump theme song for Greenland plans, link here:

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Walmart, Wing -- Announce Expansion Of Partnership -- Apple, Amazon In Crosshairs -- January 11, 2025

Locator: 49881DRONES.
Locator: 49881WALMART. 

Updates

January 11, 2026: in addition to Wing drones (Google-owned) expanding partnership with Walmart, Google is making it easier for folks to buy from Walmart, others directly through Google search. Is Apple falling further and further behind Google / Android due to slow rollout of Siri AI?

January 11, 2026: I took family (wife, and Sophia) to Walmart's drone launch center and watched two drones take off almost simultaneously on a Sunday. 

January 11, 2026, from The Verge, TechCrunch:


 

January 10, 2026, from ChatGPT:

Walmart partners with specialized drone delivery companies that design, operate, and supply the aircraft and logistics technology. The major partners in its drone delivery program include:

🚁 Key Drone Providers Working With Walmart

1. Wing (Alphabet/Google’s drone unit)
Alphabet’s drone delivery business — formerly part of Google X — provides the aircraft and drone delivery service for many Walmart locations, especially in the Dallas–Fort Worth area and newly expanded cities like Houston, Atlanta, Orlando, and Charlotte. 
2. Zipline
Zipline is another provider whose fixed-wing drones have been used in Walmart pilots. Zipline designs and operates its own delivery aircraft and has been approved for Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) flights, allowing broader service reach. 

3. (Earlier Partners – Phase-Out) DroneUp and Flytrex
Walmart previously worked with DroneUp (a delivery services provider; note it does not manufacture the drones itself). 
Flytrex has also been part of earlier retail and food deliveries in some markets (though not currently highlighted as a primary vendor in recent expansions).


In short: the drones delivering your Walmart orders are made and operated by Wing and Zipline, with prior pilots involving DroneUp and Flytrex.

Original Post  

Walmart Supercenter, Bedford / Euless, Texas. North Texas, Ft Worth suburb. 






Videos:

 

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Starlink -- Iran -- January 11, 2026

Locator: 49880STARLINK. 
Locator: 49880MUSK_IRAN. 

Link here. 



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Seasonal Flu -- A Deeper Look -- January 11, 2026

Locator: 49879INFLUENZA. 

In a long note like this, there will by typographical and content errors. Not proofread prior to posting.  

There are two main types of human seasonal flu:

  • influenza A 
  • influenza B

Both circulate annually

  • A: often leading to more severe illness and pandemics
  • B: generally milder, later-season outbreaks

Timing:

  • A: generally appears first, earlier in the season; think -- before the New Year
  • B: generally appears second, later in the season; think -- after the New Year
  • explains why the double spike in flu cases annually; there may be other reasons, also

Host:

  • A: animal hosts, particularly birds and pigs
  • B: only human; no other animal host 

Main types

  • A: subtyped (like H1N1, H3N2) because it rapidly mutates
  • subtypes are further typed by clades
  • because this year's K clade is particularly virulent, we'll probably be hearing more about "clades" in the future 
  • B: strains, like Yamagata (not seen since 2000, link here; first seen in 1988) and Victoria (currently circulating); 
    • is Covid somehow related to demise of Yamagata?
    • Yamagata, Japan: far north of Tokyo on main island; west of Sendai 

"Strains" / main types:

  • A: subtypes, divided by surface proteins (H & N); e.g.:
    • A(H1N1 and A(H3N2)
    • mutates rapidly and often; leads to new strains and pandemics
    • subtypes are further typed by clades
    • because this year's K clade is particularly virulent, we'll probably be hearing more about "clades" in the future 
  • B: lineages, not subtypes 
    • long history of lineages; seldom mutates; no need to subtype
    • seldom mutates
    • only two lineages in recent history: Yamagata, Victoria
    • Yamagata: believed extinct; hasn't been seen since 2000; some disagree;
    • Victoria circulating now
    • evolved separately, primarily in their HA (or H) protein
    • thus vaccinating for one won't protect against both

Current season, 2025 - 2026

  • influenza A: A(H3N2)
  • subclade K; new, n    ot seen before; seems to be particularly virulent
  • influenza B: Victoria strain

Current vaccine, 2025 - 2026

  • all flu vaccines are now trivalent
    • exception: nasal FluMist quadrivalent 
    • target three different types of influenza:
    • two types of influenza A
      • A(H3N2), J.2 subclade
      • subclade K: J.2.4.1 -- but subclade "migrated" antigenically from vaccine
      • A(H1N1) 
  • one type of influenza B (since Yamagata strain has not been seen since 2000)
  • up until recently, the vaccines had been quadrivalent (to also cover Yamagata)

Fluzone and Fluzone High-Dose

  • most common vaccine; probably the one you were given; link here;
  • Fluzone High-Dose: specifically designed for folks >65 years of age
  • preservative-free, single-dose
  • contains 4x the amount of antigen compared to standard-dose flu vaccines
  • A/Victoria/4897/2022 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus
  • A/Croatia/10136RV/2023 (H3N2)-like strain
  • B/Austria/1359417/2021-like (B/Michigan/01/2021-like, B Victoria lineage) virus

Effectiveness:

  • Subclade K "drifted" from vaccine shortly after vaccine developed 
  • Recent 2025 data published in The Lancet showed Sanofi's high-dose vaccine significantly reduced the risk of hospitalizations for pneumonia/influenza and cardio-respiratory events in older adults. 

Spanish Flu:

  • exceptionally deadly
  • H1N1, not further subtyped?
  • first seen:
  • Camp Funston, Kansas (USA), March, 1918, possibly earlier in Haskell County, Kansas 
  • Etaples, France, or Aldershot, England in late 1916 / early 1917
  • northern China: late 1917
  • how it could have spread: Chinese laborers were then mobilized and transported across North America to the Western Front, potentially spreading the virus along the way. 
  • why "Spanish Flu"?
  • this flu was incredibly deadly (particularly in the West) at the same time major fighting (WWI)
  • due to deaths and WWI, military authorities censored release of flu data; did not want to give enemies intel regarding effect of flu on fighting forces
  • Spain was a neutral country; thus no censorship; and reported cases and high number of cases reported relative to other countries, led it to be called "Spanish Flu"; in fact, it appears there was nothing "Spanish" about it.
  • based on all we know about seasonal flu now, the Chinese source seems most likely

Which was worse? Covid-19 or Spanish flu

  • this is interesting (note: most of the information below was as of 2021 -- when the Covid 19 outbreak was still significant):
  • globally: Spanish flu -- 50 to 100 million deaths
  • America: it took awhile but apparently Covid-19 is now considered the deadliest disease even in America, surpassing that of the 1918 Spanish flu; link here. 
  • numbers:
    • Spanish flu, 1918: 675,000 US deaths stretched over two years; no vaccine; burned itself out on its own
    • Covid-19: as of September 20, 2021, 675,400 US deaths
  • of great concern considering how aggressive the US was managing Covid:
    • U.S. deaths make up roughly 14% of the nearly 4.7 million fatalities that have been reported worldwide in this pandemic to date, even though the country’s population comprises only about 4.2% of the global population. Could be simply a reporting phenomenon, but still 4% vs 14% is a huge anomaly.
  • US Civil War: generally accepted, 620,000 deaths, but new data suggests upwards of 750,000 deaths in the US Civil War
  • Population growth in the US: Comparing events that happened more than a century apart has its perils. For instance, the population of the United States in 1918 was a third of what it is now. So as a percentage of the national population, the Spanish flu deaths still has the lead on Covid-19.
  • Mean age of those dying:
    • 1918, Spanish flu: age 28
    • Covid-19: mostly the elderly
  • Bottom line: thus, in terms of cumulative years of life lost, the Spanish flu’s impact thus remains greater.

Swine flu, pandemic, 2009

  • "swine flu" is an influenza A(H1N1) virus -- H1N1 was originally from pigs, but now a common seasonal flu
  • at the time it was a novel influenza A(H1N1) -- caused the first flu pandemic in over 40 years 
  • "the A(H1N1)pdm09 strain became seasonal H1N1, and a specific swine H3N2 variant later incorporated a gene from that H1N1 strain"

Confusing the issue:

A(H3N2) variant viruses emerged in pigs with H1N1 genes: A separate swine-origin H3N2 variant virus, known as A(H3N2)v, emerged in humans around 2011. 

This specific H3N2v virus was concerning because it had acquired the matrix (M) gene from the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus, which was thought to contribute to its transmissibility to humans. This variant virus is different from the standard seasonal human H3N2 virus.

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Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- January 11, 2026

Locator: 49878WELLS. 

The wells: 

  • 41292, conf, Hess, GO-Morgan-156-97-1806H-3, Dollar Joe, three-section, 1920-acre, standup spacing; horizontal runs south; 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20252048843890
10-20252205944632
9-20252773348766
8-202547507113439
7-20251428446871
  • 41255, conf, Oasis, Erickson 5203 14-25 5BX, Glass Bluff, well of interest: #21900, IA;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20251310211604
10-20251690014214
9-20252057417083
8-20252038815592
7-202586694407
  • 41254, conf, Oasis, Erickson 5203 14-25 4B, Glass Bluff, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20251434613255
10-20251775215160
9-20252018116527
8-20251766813416
7-202569823685
  • 41253, conf, Oasis, Erickson 5203 14-25 3B, Glass Bluff, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20251224210705
10-20251535912716
9-20251696514209
8-20251888114574
7-202566773397
  • 41061, conf, Oasis, Erickson 5203 14-25 2B, Glass Bluff, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20251293611825
10-20251564113976
9-20251802115172
8-20251555211845
7-202563953222
  • 41856, conf, CLR, Schilke 3-19H, Upland, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20252990110376
10-20252660819830
9-20252309924844
  • 40247, conf, Hunt Oil, Palermo MCNIC 156-90-22-34H 4, Ross, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2025177745006
10-2025125173692
9-2025194834528
8-2025216415437
7-2025104463274
  • 40077, conf, Devon Energy, Cuda 15-27F 3H, Round Prairie, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20252306322347
10-20252586023321
9-20253899233502
8-20252730617961
7-20252589711755
  • 41350, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Patten 2-27-22H, Parshall, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2025140333432
10-2025148793666
9-2025184873817
8-2025143243477
7-20259046993
  • 36614, conf, BR, Sandi 2B UTFH, Elidah, npd, 
  • 41964, conf, Petro-Hunt, Lovdahl 158-94-32D-30-1HS, Tioga, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2025110519076
10-202547404543
  • 41364, conf, BR, Sandie 1B MBH, Elidah, npd, 
  • 40912, conf, Hess, GO-Layton-156-97-1931H-2, Dollar Joe, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20252690377723
10-20252568260758
9-20252495259504
8-20252915676393
7-20252226524322
  • 40582, conf, KODA Resources, Stout 1831-5BH, Fertile Valley, npd, 
  • 41293, conf, Hess, GO-Morgan-156-97-1806H-2, Dollar Joe, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20252315625883
10-20252226840729
9-20252419141573
8-20252056732809
7-20252298639138
  • 42031, conf, WGO Resources, Ueckert 1-8, wildcat, NWSW 9-139-104, npd, 
  • 41363, conf, BR, Sadie IA UTFH, Elidah, npd, 
  • 41195, conf, Hess, GN-Gtundal-158-97-1819H-2, New Home, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20251700526751
10-20251421018770
9-20251105914995
8-20251358517144
7-2025730510754
  • 41386, conf, Hess, GN-Stundal-LE-158-97-1819H-1, New Home, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20251635627763
10-20251822626125
9-20251138713268
8-20251952222498
7-20251791611845
  • 40581, conf, KODA Resources, Stout 1831-4BH, Fertile Valley, npd, 
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Wells Coming Off The Confidential List The Next Week -- January 11, 2026

Locator: 49877WELLS. 

Wednesday, January 21, 2026: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 21 for the year,
41292, conf, Hess, GO-Morgan-156-97-1806H-3, 

Tuesday, January 20, 2026: 33 for the month, 33 for the quarter, 33 for the year,
41255, conf, Oasis, Erickson 5203 14-25 5BX, 
41254, conf, Oasis, Erickson 5203 14-25 4B, 
41253, conf, Oasis, Erickson 5203 14-25 3B, 
41061, conf, Oasis, Erickson 5203 14-25 2B, 

Monday, January 19, 2026: 29 for the month, 29 for the quarter, 29 for the year,
41856, conf, CLR, Schilke 3-19H, 

Sunday, January 18, 2026: 28 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 28 for the year, 
40247, conf, Hunt Oil, Palermo MCNIC 156-90-22-34H 4, 
40077, conf, Devon Energy, Cuda 15-27F 3H, 

Saturday, January 17, 2026: 26 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 26 for the year, 
41350, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Patten 2-27-22H, 
36614, conf, BR, Sandi 2B UTFH, 

Friday, January 16, 2026: 24 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 24 for the year, 
41964, conf, Petro-Hunt, Lovdahl 158-94-32D-30-1HS, 

Thursday, January 15, 2026: 23 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 23 for the year, 
41364, conf, BR, Sandie 1B MBH, 
40912, conf, Hess, GO-Layton-156-97-1931H-2, 

Wednesday, January 14, 2026: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 21 for the year,
40582, conf, KODA Resources, Stout 1831-5BH, 

Tuesday, January 13, 2026: 20 for the month, 20 for the quarter, 20 for the year,
41293, conf, Hess, GO-Morgan-156-97-1806H-2, 

Monday, January 12, 2026: 19 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 19 for the year,
42031, conf, WGO Resources, Ueckert 1-8, 
41363, conf, BR, Sadie IA UTFH, 
41195, conf, Hess, GN-Gtundal-158-97-1819H-2, 

Sunday, January 11, 2026: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 16 for the year,
41386, conf, Hess, GN-Stundal-LE-158-97-1819H-1, 
40581, conf, KODA Resources, Stout 1831-4BH, 


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