Locator: 49850B.
CNBC: still limiting screen time to first ten minutes of Jim Cramer every morning. Haven't missed Steve Liesman a bit.
Unemployment rate: dips to 4.4%.
Job creation: at 50,000 misses estimates of 75,000.
4Q25 GDP: off the chart! Link here. Even Cramer is suggesting US 4Q25 GDP is 7%.
Goldilocks economy: GDP off the chart with unemployment rate dropping, inflation slowing?
US trade deficit drops unexpectedly: lowest since 2009.
Venezuela oil: Trump gets it. Brings me back to the Keystone XL pipeline arguments. American public never understood that debate.
Iran: goes dark. Really, really dark. My hunch: CIA and Mossad on the ground giving US, Israel timely updates.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $58.25.
New wells reporting:
- Sunday, January 11, 2026: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 16 for the year,
- 41386, conf, Hess, GN-Stundal-LE-158-97-1819H-1,
- 40581, conf, KODA Resources, Stout 1831-4BH,
- Saturday, January 10, 2026: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 14 for the year,
- 41349, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Patten 3-27-15H,
- Friday, January 9, 2026: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 13 for the year,
RBN Energy: while many US refiners face a gloomy outlook, things look brighter in PADD 3. Link here. Archived.
The U.S. refining industry has been on a real rollercoaster ride
in recent years, as the disastrous COVID shutdown period of 2020 — which
led to the closure of many refineries — was closely followed by the
“Platinum Age” margins experienced when demand recovered in 2021 and
2022. Since then, the trend has been mostly downhill, as demand growth
has slowed and new refining capacity has come online from projects that
were delayed during the pandemic. But while many of these trends were
felt across the U.S. (and even globally), there have been major regional
differences in refiner market performance, a dynamic we expect to
continue as we head toward an uncertain future, made even more so by the
recent events in Venezuela. In today’s RBN blog, we take a
region-by-region look at the future of the U.S. refining industry and
explain why reductions in refining capacity are expected in some areas
while others may be in a position to thrive.
Before
we get into the regional outlook, let’s take the 50,000-foot view of
where things stand today at the global level. Since 2010, global
refinery net capacity has increased by about 700 Mb/d per year, with
significant year-to-year volatility (see Figure 1 below). A decades-high
level of net refining capacity additions of 2.1 MMb/d took place in
2023, the largest annual increase since 1977, followed by a
still-significant 1.15 MMb/d of net additions in 2024. While our
preliminary estimates show an addition of more than 1 MMb/d in 2025,
they were negated by an even-larger level of refinery closures,
resulting in a net capacity decrease
of about 200 Mb/d (which excludes all the temporary loss of operating
capacity in Russia). Most of the capacity growth in recent years has
come from projects that suffered pandemic-related pauses or slowdowns,
with large projects in the Middle East, Asia Pacific and Africa
(primarily the Dangote refinery in Nigeria) leading the way. In our upcoming Future of Fuels
report we will include a forecast for net capacity changes expected
over the next five years (through 2030) based on our analysis of which
new projects will be completed in that timeframe and planned refinery
closures.
