Locator: 48454B.
Putin: for the archives -
- Trump halts all "new" military support for Ukraine while "program/process" reviewed;
- Europe divided on how to proceed; at least two countries promising big bucks for Zelenskyy;
- without US hardware, big bucks simply extends WWI-like trench warfare with drones;
- Trump wants war to end; opposition wants to extend war -- "no compromises";
- Putin: will mediate US-Iran negotiations.
Tariffs, a five-year-old could understand, link here:
Democratic presidential hopeful: the first plausible contender has emerged -- Kathy Hochul, governor of New York.
Green: it never was about saving the world.
Hydrogen hubs, November 13, 2024. Link here.
Jet set dining: link to The WSJ.
Market corrections: Peter Lynch from a long time ago.
Free trade: needs to be fact-checked. But I know x wouldn't let it be posted if it weren't true. Link here.
Wow, eggs must be expensive in Canada with that 163% tariff on US eggs.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $67.20. And folks are complaining about the high price of eggs.
New wells:
- Wednesday, March 5, 2025: 14 for the month, 130 for the quarter, 130 for the year,
- 41017, conf, WGO Resources, Koon Harkins 1-35.
- 39978, conf, BR, Manchester 2E,
- 39944, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2033-8BH,
- Tuesday, March 4, 2025: 11 for the month, 127 for the quarter, 127 for the year,
- 41036, conf, BR, Phantom Ship 7B,
- 39977, conf, BR, Manchester 2D,
RBN Energy: move away from long-term deals carries risk for LNG buyers, producers.
The long-term contract has been the cornerstone of the global LNG
industry since its inception. Such contracts between upstream LNG
producers and downstream utility companies have provided buyers with
security of supply over a protracted period while guaranteeing producers
sufficient income to justify the investment in export facilities and
shipping fleets. But times are changing, with significant LNG volumes
under long-term contracts scheduled to expire by 2031. In today’s RBN
blog, we look at the potential implications for LNG buyers and producers
around the world, the options available to them, and how their choices
may impact LNG commercial models.
The
long-term LNG contract, typically running for 20-25 years, has allowed
producers, over time, to expand production — all LNG plants have spare
capacity — with the result that a short-term market has developed,
generally defined as contracts of four years or less. In 2023,
short-term volumes of LNG — which includes cargoes that were transacted
on a spot basis — accounted for 35% of global LNG imports, or 141
million metric tons (MT), compared to only 19%, or 41.6 million MT, in
2010. The increase in short-term trade is a reflection of the increasing
commoditization of LNG. Although the long-term contract remains, for
now, the major medium for contracting LNG supply, accounting for 260
million MT (34.4 Bcf/d) of 2023 imports, more than 100 million metric
tons per annum (MMtpa; 13.2 Bcf/d) of global long-term contracts are due
to expire by 2031, as shown in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. Long-Term LNG Contract Terminations Through 2031. Source: GIIGNL
We should emphasize that the impact of this trend, should it
continue, would affect U.S. LNG contracts at a later date. The first
U.S. LNG export facility, Cheniere’s Sabine Pass in Louisiana, shipped
its first cargo in 2016, so any long-term contracts for that site would
likely go until at least 2036. Meanwhile, Calcasieu Pass has 20-year
contracts that haven’t even started yet. Likewise, most of the new U.S.
projects being built offer 20-year contracts that won’t even begin until
the end of this decade. (To track the progress of U.S. LNG export
projects under development, see our weekly LNG Voyager
report.) It’s also important to note that the need for project
financing — and the long-term commitments that provide it — is not
needed for terminals that have already been built and the original
20-year-old deals underpinning them have expired, which makes shorter
arrangements more viable. In addition, some of the long-term commitments
signed recently for projects under development also provide volumes
today — bridging cargoes intended to meet a buyer’s potential supply
gap.
