AAPL Beats — Scrolling Down X -- Thursday -- May Day -- 2025

Locator: 485623ARCHIVES.

AAPL: top and bottom lines, beat. Link here.

Funniest story all day: Kamala Harris -- "elephants" in the room. Holy mackerel did she blow it.

Saddest story of the day: in the middle of the spring semester, a university with 160-year history, fails -- fundraising blitz fails; students need to find new school. 

Runner-up: Steve Doocy to step back -- will move to Florida; will provide commentary on "Fox and Friends" only three times a week. Will be on the road more to see his grandchildren. He won't regret that decision. Thirty years of getting up at 3:30 a.m. to be on set every morning.

Flooding in north Texas, Euless down the street from where we live, yesterday, April 30, 2025, link here:

****************************
Southern California
and
Danny B Harvey

Link here.

*************************
Iran Vs US

Tea leaves: everything points to the "death cross" approaching. Impact imminent?

• where we are this morning: one second before PAT 25 x AA 5342
• tipping point: that $70 million F-18E rolling off the USS Truman
• Hegseth: vs $5,000 drone from the Houthis? 
  
• Iran was fortunate it was not a $110 million F-35C that rolled off the a/c carrier
• reminder: it was a last-minute "wave-off" from Trump that stopped the inevitable two weeks ago
• if Israeli strike is imminent, what would be high on the list? Taking out the fuel needed for ballistic missiles
• CBS story.
• by the way, with sanctions on Iran, how in the world did all that fuel (from North Korea?) get delivered halfway around the world to Iran? Just asking.
• is Hegseth should be asking XO US Navy: exactly what our we "using" our nuclear submarines for?
  

**********************************
Kohl's

Two days ago: my wife and her closest friend talking about Kohl. Not impressed. 

Kohl's, link here. Conflicts of interest. Business "stuff," not personal. [Later: wrong: CEO was funneling business to his "romantic partner."]

One month ago, link here:

Four months ago: Kohl's CEO steps down after just two years on the job.

********************************
Elsewhere

Margin calls, link here:

Lessons learned: when the grids are >30% renewables, the grid becomes unstable.

Trump says no US LNG on tankers headed to China. Source. Needs to be fact-checked.

Emojis: so yesterday. Now? Self-generated stickers. Truly amazing and so much fun. Photo-bomb almost anything, including television / laptop screens and generate awesome stickers. Apple.

Most amazing story not getting much attention: ND senator, 81 years old, "life sentence" for sexual abuse. Previous current attorney general part of story. UND noted alumnus also part of the story. GOP politicos scrambling to distance themselves from story. Links posted earlier. Should raise Bismarck Tribune's "hits."

Trump's second term: 93% to go. Closer to day 1 than day 1460.

Last question: would you rather have no cargo ships leaving the US or no cargo ships arriving US? Asking for my wife.

********************************
The Book Page

Link here.

The Seven Storey Mountain: An Autobiography Of Faith, Thomas Merton, 1948, 1998.

The writing: incredible.

The story? I struggle with the story. 

Thursday -- May 1, 2025

Locator: 48562B.

Apple: referred for criminal contempt of court. 

• No links. Story will be everywhere by end of day.

MSFT, META beat earnings.

• MSFT surges 9%; EPS $3.44 vs $3.26; revenue $70.07 billion vs $68.44 billion (reported today)
• link here;
  
• QCOM: fell 5.4%; earnings miss; trade war; 
• EPS $2.85 vs $2.87; revenue $10.64 billion vs $10.84 billion (reported earlier this year)
• ORCL miss: 
• similar to QCOM's (reported earlier this year)
  

Recession: under JPow's watch? Every armchair investor saw this coming. The good news: the Fed "is monitoring the situation closely." LOL. Even Janet Yellen would not have let this happen.

Tariffs: photo-op.

• no cargo ships showing up at LA ports
• what's not being shown: no cargo ships leaving China for US destinations
• the US will do just fine

LA Lakers vs MN Wolves?

• clearly shows why LA made the trade.
• age
• LeBron: 40
• Anthony Davis: 32
  
• Luca: 26
  
• Anthony Edwards: 23
  

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $56.91.

New wells:

Friday, May 2, 2025: 7 for the month, 107 for the quarter, 299 for the year,
41142, conf, CLR, Hayes 9-6HSL,
28767, conf, Grayson Mill, Sand Creek Federal 153-96-21-28-2H,
28766, conf, Grayson Mill, Sand Creek Federal 153-96-21-28-10H,
25072, conf, Grayson Mill, Sand Creek State 153-96-16-2H,

Thursday, May 1, 2025: 3 for the month, 103 for the quarter, 295 for the year,
40983, conf, BR, Tilton 2E,
40484, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, Tucson W 158-94-26-35-3MBH,
28765, conf, Grayson Mill, Sand Creek Federal 153-9-21-28-3H, 

RBN Energy: M&A drove 2024 E&P reserve-replacement surge as organic growth lagged.

The tide is shifting in the energy sector back toward hydrocarbons as renewables face new, big hurdles.

The latest tangible sign of this shift is BP’s decision to refocus on traditional oil and gas and deemphasize renewables, which follows ExxonMobil’s and Shell’s restructuring of strategies in the same direction.

The likelihood that hydrocarbon demand will continue to grow throughout this decade has reinforced the importance of E&P companies adding to their proved oil and gas reserves. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze crucial trends from the 2024 reserve reporting of the major U.S. oil and gas producers.

Five New Permits; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- Down To 27 Active Rigs -- April 30, 2025

Locator: 48561B.

Saudi: link here, foreign exchange reserves. 

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $58.24.

Active rigs: 27.

Five new permits, #41863 - #41867.

• Operators:  Hess (4); Oasis,
• Field: Ellsworth (McKenzie); Cottonwood (Mountrail)
• Comments:
•  Hess has permits for two BW-KKMP wells and two BW-ABM wells, SESW 7-149-100, 
• to be sited 1037 FSl and 2331 / 2430 FWL;
• Oasis has a permit for Spyglass Federal well, SENE 13-157-93, 
• to be sited 2443 FNL and 800 FEL.

Three permits renewed:

• BR: three CCU Badger permits; Corral Creek, Dunn County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 40150, 1,068, CLR, Marshall 3-24H,
• 40497, 1,378, CLR, Marshall 2-24HSL,

Intel's Chief Commercial Officer And Sales Lead Resigns -- April 30, 2025

 Locator: 48560TECH.

Tag: INTC.

Chips are tracked here.

Tech is tracked here.

Intel today:

Updating The BR Lillibridge / Veeder Wells In Blue Buttes -- April 30, 2025

 Locator: 48559B.

The BR Lillibridge / Veeder wells are tracked here. 

The BR Lillibridge / Veeder wells are some of the nicest wells in the Bakken. Many have shown a very nice halo effect. These wells are in Blue Buttes oil field. One well with a huge halo effect:

• 19288, 984, BR, Veeder 14-24H, 33-053-03208, Blue Buttes, t4/11; cum 526K 1/21; not re-fracked according to FracFocus or the NDIC in 2017; huge jump 11/17; look at #32909 - 32911 above; re-fracked in December, 2019; see this note; cum 642K 2/25;

BAKKEN	4-2020	30	46913	46888	16696	64122	53751	10297
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	40249	39914	15938	55657	27008	28572
BAKKEN	2-2020	4	6677	6338	3276	11003	7849	3144
BAKKEN	1-2020	7	234	234	7130	431	414	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	1	177	255	0	2	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	17	1768	2256	753	3736	3694	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	24	2679	2588	1040	4012	3952	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	29	2520	2369	1130	3650	3578	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	3185	3250	1578	5363	5289	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	3115	2978	1507	4301	4224	0

Halo Effect In Reunion Bay, MRO's Everett Fisher -- April 30, 2025

Locator: 48558B.

• 18880, 129, MRO, Everett Fisher USA 41-6H, Reunion Bay, t7/10; cum 643K 2/25; note the jump in production back in 2021, verified in FracFocus, low volume re-frack:

Monthly production:

BAKKEN	6-2022	30	8540	8742	9959	21098	20629	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	9603	9302	11919	20460	19612	288
BAKKEN	4-2022	9	2274	2484	1732	5309	5176	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	11760	11658	8415	26578	26001	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	9872	9787	7085	22147	21696	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	18	7459	7474	5555	12205	11922	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	22	11379	11483	5687	21346	20876	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	24253	24280	13903	37945	37061	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	33008	32976	20218	39638	38535	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	25500	25647	24378	28366	27396	172
BAKKEN	8-2021	29	36363	35998	99154	51854	48761	971
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	23	1070	1422	319	1596	1178	223
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	1431	1345	337	2158	1624	286
BAKKEN	1-2021	29	1438	1470	323	2185	1262	673
BAKKEN	12-2020	30	1308	1251	266	1684	1152	283
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	1526	1608	334	2269	1798	207
BAKKEN	10-2020	25	1102	1064	228	1682	1308	175

Wednesday -- April 30, 2025

Locator: 48557B.

On growing old: link here. 

**************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $59.96. Trump wanted lower oil prices. Saudi will be reeling.

New wells:

• Thursday, May 1, 2025: 3 for the month, 103 for the quarter, 295 for the year,
• 40983, conf, BR, Tilton 2E,
• 40484, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, Tucson W 158-94-26-35-3MBH,
• 28765, conf, Grayson Mill, Sand Creek Federal 153-9-21-28-3H,
• Wednesday, April 30, 2025: 100 for the month, 100 for the quarter, 292 for the year,
• 41147, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 5C,
• 41067, conf, BR, Tilton 3D,
• 39816, conf, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-6,
• 39815, conf, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-5,
• 30265, conf, MRO, Whitney USA 14-9H,
• 30264, conf, MRO, Alvina USA 44-9H,  

RBN Energy: are Alaska LNG's strengths enough to outweigh its costs, construction challenges?The 

Trump administration is trying to breathe new life into the long-dormant Alaska LNG project, talking up its strengths and encouraging potential Asian customers and investors to consider it. But the project, a multibillion-dollar plan to pipe natural gas from Alaska’s North Slope to Anchorage and Cook Inlet for liquefaction and export, faces huge financial and administrative hurdles, plus the challenges of building it in Alaska’s rugged terrain and often-harsh climate. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine Alaska LNG’s competitive position and whether its reduced shipping costs, coupled with federal support, might be sufficient to outweigh the construction costs and other major obstacles the project faces.

Trump's Tariffs Are StartingTo Bite -- And Bite Hard -- April 29, 2029

Locator: 48555SOLAR.

By the way, before we get started, the elite universities are putting up a good front confronting Trump on the anti-semitism issue, but two things:

• a task force "from" Harvard -- a scathing report has just been released ("everyone" knew it was bad, but now we see how bad it was / it is);
  
• behind closed doors, the adage is, "don't ever try to take on an American president, any president"

It's been one hundred days.

And we move on.

Later

April 30, 2025: Equior, link at Reuters. Should have stayed in its lane, stayed with its core competency (oil).

Original Post

Link here.

First Solar, the country’s largest solar manufacturer, said that tariffs will significantly reduce revenue and earnings this year, sending the stock down 10% in after-hours trading.

First Solar missed Wall Street’s consensus expectation for the first quarter, reporting earnings of $1.95 a share versus the projection of $2.49 a share.

The company also revised guidance sharply lower. It said that tariffs could reduce its 2025 revenue from a range of $5.3 billion to $5.8 billion to a range of $4.5 billion to $5.5 billion. It reduced its earnings per share expectations from a range of $17 to $20 to a range of $12.50 to $17.50.

First Solar has several factories in the U.S., but also produces some of its solar film in India, Malaysia, and Vietnam, all of which are subject to new tariffs.

It plans to redirect its Indian supply to the domestic market in India, said CEO Mark Widmar. It may have to idle the factories in Malaysia and Vietnam.

Random Update Of MRO Activity In Bailey Oil Field -- April 29, 2025

Locator: 48554B.

In the map below, four older wells have been taken off line; they were taken off line all at the same time:

It turns out that the wells on the two multi-well pads were drilled / fracked / completed all within the last few months explaining why these four wells (circled in the graphic) above were taken off line and remain offline. I assume, if these wells are not closed in for good (plugged and abandoned) they will be back on line in a few weeks. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if they are all closed in. To some extent, they are now simply nuisances for the operator with 20+ new wells. Nuisances unless they show a typical Bailey oil field halo effect.

The wells revealed huge jumps in production years ago. See below.

The wells:

• 17844, 105, MRO, Winnifred Brown 34-10H, Killdeer, t9/09; cum 401K 6/24;
• 17817, 506, MRO, Kempf Trust, Bailey, t6/09; cum 627K 6/24; see jump in production below;
  
• 17875, 608, MRO, Lily 24-11H, Bailey, t7/09; cum 234K 6/24;
• 16909, 260, MRO, Lily Reiss 41-14H, Bailey, t2/08; cum 443K 7/24;

Example of the halo effect seen in Bailey oil field,

• 17817, 506, MRO, Kempf Trust, Bailey, t6/09; cum 627K 6/24;

BAKKEN	8-2018	31	11894	11800	10712	12116	11171	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	13300	13394	11636	12988	10220	1737
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	13485	13499	10835	10624	9525	67
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	15955	15954	13038	8021	2298	4520
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	18042	18024	14591	9004	0	6896
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	21106	21154	17908	10512	0	8072
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	22528	22522	19799	11149	0	8575
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	27388	27520	27949	13626	698	9819
BAKKEN	12-2017	27	26122	25939	22830	15939	688	12323
BAKKEN	11-2017	25	16671	16661	9612	10148	89	8166
BAKKEN	10-2017	13	12725	12614	0	6272	37	4801
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	1	0	0	20	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	19	448	506	252	394	135	119
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	742	709	144	520	256	17
BAKKEN	1-2017	30	670	747	276	493	193	60
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	844	766	205	575	230	69
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	792	779	161	529	251	13
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	818	855	175	543	264	5
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	833	856	172	500	104	128

Maybe more later.

Holy Mackerel! China's PMI Plunges -- April 29, 2025

Locator: 48553CHINA.

Link here. 

Before going further, a reminder: within the past few days China stated very clearly that it was waiving all tariffs on US ethane. Huge, huge, huge story.

Now, tonight, an even bigger story.

Now, combine this with the Musk satellite story.

Then, add in the Nvidia /TSMC story that's playing out in Phoenix. 

And then, another reminder, Apple is moving out of China as fast as it can. It will take a year or so, but Apple will be out of China well before mainland China invades Taiwan. 

One hundred days. 

Now, throw in the US energy story and the Spanish grid this past week.

This is going to play out in two phases, short term and long term.

As usual, I won't post my thoughts on what all of the above means and where we're headed short term and long term. I would get too much push back. I don't need it. 

All I can say, the China "manufacturing data" for April that has just come in is the biggest financial story so far in Trump's first 100 days. 

At this moment in time: the US has never looked so strong. I won't even mention that the Canadians have voted in another liberal PM. LOL. 

This is the lede to the WSJ story:

China’s economy showed its first big signs of damage from the trade war, as steep U.S. tariffs pummeled export orders and production at the country’s factories.

A gauge of new export orders fell in April to its lowest reading since Covid-19 was ravaging the country in 2022, while overall manufacturing activity in China was the weakest in more than a year, according to surveys published Wednesday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

The sharp pullback shows Trump’s eye-watering tariffs on Chinese imports are starting to squeeze the engine room of China’s economy, piling pressure on Beijing to boost its stimulus efforts to shore up growth.

It also adds to pressure on leader Xi Jinping to reach a deal on trade with President Trump—though for now the clear message from Beijing is one of resolute defiance in the teeth of what it describes as U.S. bullying. [But it didn't stop Xi from waiving all tariffs on ethane.]

China’s official purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector, a closely watched gauge of activity at China’s factories, came in at 49 in April, down sharply from the 50.5 reading recorded in March. A reading of 50 or above indicates factory activity is expanding, while below 50 points to a contraction. April’s reading was the weakest since December 2023.

A similar measure of new export orders plunged even more steeply, sinking to 44.7 in April, the lowest reading since December 2022, an early sign that trade between the U.S. and China is in danger of drying up as American importers cancel or delay orders after a rush to bring in goods earlier this year before tariffs came into effect. [Exactly predicted by Trump.]

 The billionaires in China won't accept this.

Texas, California Rambling -- April 27, 2025

Locator: 48552TEXAS.

Texas: everything suggests a Texas supercycle over the next four years -

• tech:
• how compelling is Google?
• Nvidia; two largest supercomputers, Dallas, Houston; part of $500 billion US push. Link here.
• TSMC: design service center in Austin; link here. 
• Meta: large data center in Temple; major office in Austin; plans to relocate some of its content moderation teams to Texas (from California?); and, completely off my radar scope -- considering reincorporation in Texas
• Tesla: reincorporated in Texas on June 13, 2024
• Apple: as part of its new US investments, with its manufacturing partners will begin production of servers in Houston later this year (for Joe Biden, this would mean, 2025)
• a 250,000-square-foot server manufacturing facility is slated to open in 2026 (Houston); will create thousands of jobs
• Oracle: moved its global headquarters from Redwood City, CA, to Austin, Texas, in 2000; will maintain huge footprint in Texas, but (unfortunately) is moving its headquarters again, this time to Nashville, TN
  
• energy: goes without saying, how much LNG Europe is going to need;
• PSX, which is closing its Los Angeles refinery this year (for Joe Biden, this would mean 2025); moved its headquarters from California to Houston, TX, about ten years ago
• COP, of course, moved to Houston, in 2016
• LNG exports from Texas already setting all-time records
  
• space exploration: NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin 

California: deep doo-doo

• majority of illegal migrants in California
• will greatly impact health care services in California
• gasoline in 2026: price will not be the story; availability will be the story
• bullet train: unlikely the Trump administration will provide any meaningful support
• the 2025 Pacific Palisades wildfire debacle is nowhere near any resolution; huge property tax loss for the region and the state; and much rebuilding yet to be done.

GPU Chip Count Updated -- April 29, 2025

Locator: 48551TSMC.

Note the charts below. There seems to be a trend.

**********************************
GPU Chip Account

Wiki. This chart has recently been updated. This is updated through 2025. Compare this upper graph with the lower graph.

 This was the previous chart at wiki. The most recent date below is 2024.

TSMC Tracked Here; TSMC Breaks Ground On Third Facility In Phoenix -- GPU Chip Account Has Been Updated By Wiki -- April 29, 2025

Locator: 48550TSMC.

Updates

April 30, 2025: same story, one day later, being reported on MacRumors. Link here.

Original Post 

Tech is tracked here.

Links here: 

• SemiWiki: start with this link. Archived here.
• Evan: link here.
• AZFS: breaks ground. April 29, 2025.

Look at the numbers.

In a historic announcement, in May 2020, TSMC shared its plans to invest $12B in Phoenix, Arizona – building an advanced semiconductor manufacturing fabrication. 

In December 2022, the company announced its commitment to build a second fab in Phoenix, increasing its total investment to $40B. 

Then in April 2024, the U.S. Department of Commerce and TSMC Arizona announced up to US$6.6 billion in direct funding under the CHIPS and Science Act, fulfilling a goal to bring the most advanced chip manufacturing in the world to the United States. 

TSMC also announced plans to build a third fab at TSMC Arizona. 

This third fab brings TSMC’s total U.S. investment to more than $65 billion, making this the largest foreign direct investment (FDI) in Arizona history, and the largest FDI in a greenfield project in U.S. history. 

Now with a third fab, TSMC Arizona will create approximately 6,000 jobs – and more than 20,000 accumulated unique construction jobs, as well as tens of thousands of indirect supplier jobs.

According to the Greater Phoenix Economic Council (GPEC), there are more than 140,000 jobs in occupations relevant to semiconductors in the metropolitan area and it is growing rapidly. An analysis by GPEC (April 2024) on the impact of TSMC Arizona notes that over a thirteen-year period, TSMC’s investment in Phoenix will:

• Create more than 20,000 accumulated unique construction jobs and over 18,000 supplier and consumer indirect jobs.
• Generate an estimated $1.2B in direct tax revenues plus $195.1M in indirect tax revenues — for a total of $1.4B in tax revenue to Arizona over a 13-year period.
• Create $4.6B of personal income, plus an additional $4.8B in indirect personal income for a total of $9.3B.
• Create $32.9B in economic output, with $17.2B in direct economic output, and $15.6B in indirect output.

**********************************
GPU Chip Account

Wiki.

MRO Proposes To Place A "Fracking Bore" Between Two Specific Pads In Bailey Oil Field -- April 29, 2025

Locator: 48549HALO.

See this post: the Bailey oil field is well known for its "halo effect."

See the NDIC hearing dockets, May, 2025, link here.

The case:

• 31720, MRO, an order permitting a "fracking bore" to be placed between two specific well pads; Bailey Field, Georgia well (#41345), the Bjorge well (#41302), and the Sunell wells (#41301). Dunn County.

 The maps:

NOG 1Q25 Results -- Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Locator: 48548NOG.

NOG 1Q25 results: link here.

• record total quarterly production; 135K BOEPD
• oil: 79K BOPD
• ratio: 58.3% oil
• Bakken gets gassier as it matures; reported record Appalachian volumes (gas play); Uinta volumes up 15% from prior quarter (SM Energy operator)
• financials:
• cash flow up 10% from 1Q24
• free cash flow up 41% from 4Q24
• transactions: added over 1,000 net mineral acres; 1.1 net wells for $4.8 million ($4,800 / acre)
• repurchased 499,100 shares of common stock at average price of $30.07 / share

************************************
More Bakken News

WTI: $60.18.

Active rigs: 25.

Seven new permits, #41856 - #41862, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR, Phoenix Operating, Devon (5),
• Fields: Upland oil field (Divide); Big Stone oil field (Williams); Briar Creek (Williams)
• Comments:
• Devon has permits for five Finn wells, NESE 12-152-104; 
• to be sited 2270 FSL and 581 / 701 FEL
• Phoenix Operating has a permit for a Willer well, NWNW 28-159-98, 
• to be sited 512 FL and 850 FWL;
• CLR has a permit for a Schilke well, lot 1, section 19-161-96, 
• to be sited 403 FL and 526 FWL;

Two permits renewed:

• BR: two Gorhman permits, Bailey, oil field, Dunn County;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 41137, 0, CLR, Shadowcat 1-31H, Divide County;

Netflix Hits An All-Time High And Then This -- April 29, 2025

Locator: 48547NETFLIX.

All eyes on SBUX right now. Later: a double miss. Down 1% after hours? Not sure how accurate but some reports. Margins up but that was about it. After hours, price recovers on guidance. Meanwhile, Visa (V) beats with strong report. Jumps 2% after hours.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Earlier:

 

One Hundred Days -- Promises Made -- Promises Kept -- April 29, 2025

Locator: 48546SATELLITES.

GDPNow: link here, -2.7. 

Inflation: last month's drop in pharmacy products was the largest decline in history.

Breaking: Netflix hit all-time highs today.

AAPL: gets strong price target boost based on earnings talk.

Two must-watch programs every day:

• Victor Davis Hanson; and,
• the Trump White House daily briefing.

Today's VDH was particularly good.  

Satellites: to reach its goal, China needs to launch 60 satellites every week between now and the end of 2030. If one Musk launch carries 20 satellites, that means China needs to launch 20 satellites three times a week. Three launches per week x 50 weeks = 150 launches / year. And do this for the five years.

In 2024, China launched a total of 68 orbital rockets. This is a new record for the country, exceeding the 67 launches in 2023. Initially, the goal was 100 launches, but this target was not reached.

Musk 2024 space statistics:

• launches, 2024: 130 missions total; "many" of them launched StarLink satellites
• increased number of satellites in space from 6,700 to 8,000 by the end of the year (2024)
• final launch in December: 21 satellites

The race: between China and Musk. EU is dead. The EU will make money regulating satellites.

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Menu

It only took 50+ years but I finally have the short-order restaurant in my kitchen that I've always wanted.

Top Stories Today -- April 29, 2025

Locator: 48545UKRAINE.

Wow, the blog got it exactly right.

Wow, wow, wow -- on China, trade, tariffs, Victor Davis Hanson led off with that. Wow.

See this post for today's big stories (about six big stories). I don't "predict" that Ukraine will be a big story each day, but today, after weeks (months?) of silence, I said Ukraine would turn out to be one of the big stories today. Pure serendipity. LOL.

One of the six: Ukraine. From the blog at break of dawn today -- Putin will get Crimea; hard to say how much more he will get --

Now this from x, link here:

And, oh, by the way, it was reported today that a senior Russian official has said NATO's newest members (Finland, 2023; Sweden, 2024) are in play now.

Anticipation: The Hess Ida Wells In Antelope Creek -- April 29, 2025

Locator: 48544HESS.

The well:

• 41586, loc, Hess, BW-Ida-149-101-1416H-4, Antelope Creek, t--; cum --; 

Scout ticket:

The permit application:

The maps:

Tuesday Morning -- Scrolling Down X -- April 29, 2025

Locator: 48543ARCHIVES.

Tariffs: that story that Amazon was going to publish tariff cost on each product it sold --> fake story, fake news. Trump fell for it. 

Ethane: China waives tariffs on US ethane imports. On Trump’s 100th day in office. Link here.

The EIA expects total U.S. petroleum products consumption to increase in 2025 and 2026.

CCS, XOM, Calpine, Permian, Gulf of Texas: link here. Great update. 

Gulf of America: doesn't roll off the tongue due to vowel alignment. Gulf of Mexico, worked. Gulf of Texas? Even better.

Scrolling down x:

• Netflix hit all-time highs today.
• Chili's Restaurants Parent stock plunges despite huge earnings
• UPS to cut 20,000 positions in 2025; employs 490,000;
• UPS stock "pops" after earnings beat; guidance is the concern;
• guidance is always the concern
• Amazon (Bezos) launches its first satellites to rival Starlink (Musk)
• Spain's electricity grid collapse; cause unknown; Spain lost 60% of its power in five seconds;
• minute-by-minute time line known; but second-by-second time line not known
• the fact the operators don’t know the cause is more worrisome than the fact it happened;
• the AI super chips to manage the grid: who made them?
• 60% of electricity on Spain’s grid was solar-generated at the time of the grid failure; link here;
• google: solar flares disrupting solar energy; link here;
• Trump's tariff talks provide relief hopes for Ford, GM
• also helping Tesla

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The Book Page

Logarithms lead directly to slide rules. From the book below, p. 60:

The production of slide rules, circular slide rules, and slide cylinders came to a halt in 1976, when the first low-cost electronic pocket calculator entered the market.

1976.

Wow. 

I graduated from high school, 1969, and college, 1973. Three years later, the end of the slide rule. I doubt Sophia even knows what a slide rule is. To what extent her older sisters know, I have no idea.

The book this week: The Daring Invention of Logarithm Tables: How Jost Bürgi, John Napier, and Henry Briggs Simplified Arithmetic and Started the Computing Revolution, color edition, Klaus Truemper, c. 2020, updates, 2023, 2024, and 2025. 

Klaus Truemper is Professor Emeritus of Computer Science at the University of Texas at Dallas. He is author of several books in Brain Science, Mathematics, and Computer science.

University of Texas as Dallas? UTD. Just a few miles up the road from where we live. Could be huge beneficiary of Nvidia's announcement to build a supercomputer in Dallas. UTD has transformed in the past five years. New kid on the block. Connection with Nvidia? 

Six links. This is not an investment site and no recommendations are being or implied.

• April 27, 2025, Motley Fool: link here. 
• April 27, 2025, SeekingAlpha: link here.
• April 27, 2025, TweakTown: link here.
• April 25, 2025, IBD: link here.
• April 24, 2025, TheStreet: link here.
• April 14, 2025, NvidiaBlog: link here.

Nvidia is working with its manufacturing partners to design and build factories that, for the first time, will produce Nvidia AI supercomputers entirely in the U.S.

Together with leading manufacturing partners, the company has commissioned more than a million square feet of manufacturing space to build and test Nvidia Blackwell chips in Arizona and AI supercomputers in Texas. Nvidia Blackwell chips have started production at TSMC’s chip plants in Phoenix, Arizona. 

Nvidia is building supercomputer manufacturing plants in Texas, with Foxconn in Houston and with Wistron in Dallas.

Mass production at both plants is expected to ramp up in the next 12-15 months.

The AI chip and supercomputer supply chain is complex and demands the most advanced manufacturing, packaging, assembly and test technologies. 

Nvidia is partnering with Amkor and SPIL for packaging and testing operations in Arizona.

Within the next four years, Nvidia plans to produce up to half a trillion dollars of AI infrastructure in the United States through partnerships with TSMC, Foxconn, Wistron, Amkor and SPIL.

These world-leading companies are deepening their partnership with Nvidia , growing their businesses while expanding their global footprint and hardening supply chain resilience. 

Nvidia AI supercomputers are the engines of a new type of data center created for the sole purpose of processing artificial intelligence — AI factories that are the infrastructure powering a new AI industry.

Tens of “gigawatt AI factories” are expected to be built in the coming years.

Manufacturing Nvidia AI chips and supercomputers for American AI factories is expected to create hundreds of thousands of jobs and drive trillions of dollars in economic security over the coming decades.

“The engines of the world’s AI infrastructure are being built in the United States for the first time,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia . “Adding American manufacturing helps us better meet the incredible and growing demand for AI chips and supercomputers, strengthens our supply chain and boosts our resiliency.”

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Ethane

Just a reminder with regard to ethane, the US, shale.

From a reader, January 20, 2021, link here:

I did a double take when you posted that story about the inaugural shipment from the Orbit Terminal on the maiden voyage of the Seri Everest.

That ~900 thousand barrels capacity is almost 4 times larger than the initial 'Dragon Ships' ethane carriers that were launched just 5 years ago.

Prior to that 2016 lifting of ethane from Marcus Hook, there was virtually NO 'industry' of seaborne transport of ethane except for small, infrequent barge transfers in the Baltic region.

The explosive growth of both ethane and propane production from US shales has prompted ...

1. Big build out of new steam crackers and Propane Dehydrogenation Units (PDHs) in India, Europe, and China to process ethane/propane as making products from these raw materials is MUCH cheaper than using naptha, the historical supply which is generally obtained from oil.

2. An entirely new 'industry' has emerged in the building and launching of ships designed for the express purpose of transporting liquified ethane and propane, something never before even contemplated.

There are now 'virtual pipelines' ferrying these products to Indian, Chinese, and European plants. A huge Propane Dehydrogenation Plant is opening next year in Belgium and a massive cracker/PDH complex in Antwerp is set to come online in 2024. US shale is expected to provide virtually all the raw products.

Folks who thought China was going to quit making plastic had no clue.

Huge win for Trump. 

And it comes back to this: who needs whom more?