Unemployment And Inflation -- For The Archives -- October, 2024

Locator: 44349JOBS.

For the archives. I've lost interest in this metric, also. The official unemployment rate is U-3. The unemployment rate on which I focus, U-1. We've discussed it before. U-1 is the simplest, unadjusted, straightforward. One number: 15 weeks. .

Seriously, is there any significant difference between 1.4% and 1.6%? 

I'm sure it's neither significant nor reproducible. A statistician might have the equations to "prove" the change is significant, but it's not significant to you or me.

*******************
Inflation 

I haven't read the article yet, just the headline, but after posting this note, I'll read the article. 

The headline suggests that too many "smart" people are/were "over-thinking" things. With regard to inflation, they're still over-thinking it. It's all about supply / demand. 

The price of eggs had nothing to do with the $40-trillion US debt. It had to do with bird flu and the culling of chickens. 

So, now I'll read the article. LOL.

Link here. 

President Biden hadn’t even been inaugurated when he and his senior advisers made a monumental gamble in January 2021 that would reverberate through his presidency. Fresh on the heels of a $900 billion Covid-relief bill that Congress had approved weeks earlier, Biden proposed a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill.

Biden and many of those advisers had been part of the Obama administration. Barack Obama took office under similarly gloomy circumstances in January 2009, during the low point of the global financial crisis. Years of high unemployment followed, with much of the world mired in a trap of low growth and very low—even negative—interest rates.

One lesson Democrats took from that episode: Spend aggressively when interest rates are low. It is better to overfill the cup than underfill it. 

It's a long article. It's amazing how much the writer had to write to explain it. Nick Timiraos isn't over-thinking it. He has it right, but for all the writing he did, he failed to come out and say it simply: inflation was a result of the mismatch in supply and demand. 

If one accepts that, it's easy to come up with the solution that the Biden administration failed to see. Folks in the administration over-thought it and Biden / Harris were poor communicators.

Ford Boosts Year-End Discounts On It's Bestselling EVs -- November 17, 2024

Locator: 44348EVS.

Link here.

From the linked article:

We’re officially into the traditional year-end sales period for automakers. That means big discounts are on the way, as both manufacturers and dealerships want to get rid of unsold inventory to make room for next year’s models.

This season, Ford has decided to boost incentives on its bestselling electric vehicles, the 2024 F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E models.

Google: ford ceo on the lightning the mach-3. 

Updating An Old Newfield Barracuda Well -- #25994 -- Sandrocks -- November 17, 2024

Locator: 44347B.

The well:

• 25994, 1,016, Ovintiv/Newfield, Barracuda 150-100-11-2-3HR, Sandrocks, t10/13; cum 123K 7/16; cum 212K 3/23;

Last updated March, 2023.

Now look at this:

•  25994, 1,016, Ovintiv/Newfield, Barracuda 150-100-11-2-3HR, Sandrocks, t10/13; cum 123K 7/16; cum 212K 3/23; cum 309K 9/24;

ool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2024	30	4865	4903	13879	30189	30067	2
BAKKEN	8-2024	31	6743	6641	17134	33160	31404	1632
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	8871	9008	18990	36314	34920	1270
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	9784	9609	21798	29505	29259	127
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	12144	12153	26743	37699	37318	258
BAKKEN	4-2024	30	20384	20444	31995	31617	29572	1936
BAKKEN	3-2024	31	16295	16312	43782	21505	20588	796
BAKKEN	2-2024	22	14188	14101	102339	19526	19298	140
BAKKEN	1-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2023	12	140	168	193	980	980	0
BAKKEN	8-2023	14	784	708	522	1135	1135	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	1239	1345	914	2797	2518	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	16	546	434	386	804	242	42

Sundry form received March 28, 2024:

And this, a sundry form dated November 6, 2023:

The wells on that pad:

• 25457, 1,320, Grayson Mill, Barracuda 150-100-11-2-4H, Sandrocks, t9/13; cum 286K 9/24;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2024	30	4184	4275	10976	29532	29161	251
BAKKEN	8-2024	31	6392	6340	13630	40141	39934	83
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	9424	9509	17520	57385	55099	2162
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	8902	8821	25663	41659	40487	1053
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	14501	14417	27735	61380	56266	4994
BAKKEN	4-2024	30	16976	17033	27717	51577	50235	1232
BAKKEN	3-2024	26	15166	15374	26126	32501	32261	143
BAKKEN	2-2024	27	20280	20078	106971	37515	32586	4824
BAKKEN	1-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2023	8	526	541	131	189	189	0
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	597	616	465	1072	1072	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	1114	1103	734	2235	1956

•  25456, dry, Newfield, Barracuda 150-100-11-2-3H, Sandrocks,
• 25455,1,061, Grayson Mill, Barracuda 150-100-11-2-2H, Sandrocks, t9/13; cum 351K 9/24;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2024	30	8665	8563	12283	32104	31951	33
BAKKEN	8-2024	31	9982	9911	12385	32639	31318	1197
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	14923	15176	20273	38855	38134	597
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	17307	17194	22152	33375	32733	527
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	29857	29514	30581	46527	45955	449
BAKKEN	4-2024	23	24338	24437	34841	27049	26574	387
BAKKEN	3-2024	31	19443	19226	67904	30752	29551	1080
BAKKEN	2-2024	14	8836	8895	49733	12964	12123	785
BAKKEN	1-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2023	15	549	567	381	601	601	0
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	1202	1202	1187	1396	1396	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	1262	1266	1408	1728	1449	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	1246	1240	1776	1383	1113	0

Now, wells to the north, wells of interest. These wells are sited to the north and their horizontals will run south parallel to the Barracuda wells sited to the south (see above):

The wells:

• 39610, conf, Grayson Mill, Barracuda 150-100-2-11-5HLW, Sandrocks,
• 39611, F/A, Grayson Mill, Barracuda 150-100-2-11-6H, Sandrocks,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2024	30	5697	5703	14739	44472	43655	581
BAKKEN	8-2024	31	7652	7642	16442	53839	51804	1734
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	10813	10638	19639	55768	52497	3060
BAKKEN	6-2024	15	5132	5332	10159	12784	11565	1133
BAKKEN	5-2024	30	18740	18694	26450	67908	64045	3610
BAKKEN	4-2024	30	32663	32742	42457	71766	64704	6824
BAKKEN	3-2024	25	35772	35744	49896	62713	60352	2361
BAKKEN	2-2024	13	19636	19307	36364	26670	21910	4760

• 39612, F/A, Grayson Mill, Barracuda 150-100-2-11-7H, Sandrocks,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2024	30	5293	5311	14412	40620	39874	530
BAKKEN	8-2024	31	7444	7512	17565	44136	42467	1422
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	13512	13265	23244	61714	58094	3387
BAKKEN	6-2024	12	4703	4897	9870	12618	11486	1052
BAKKEN	5-2024	29	18203	18169	26974	56999	53757	3030
BAKKEN	4-2024	30	32189	32217	37541	71975	64892	6844
BAKKEN	3-2024	26	30385	30556	47458	51225	49297	1928
BAKKEN	2-2024	19	28041	27568	56078	41070	33740	7330
BAKKEN	1-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

• 39572, F/A, Grayson Mill, Barracuda 150-100-2-11-8H, Sandrocks,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2024	30	12838	12659	20271	41173	40453	512
BAKKEN	8-2024	22	9375	9489	18075	23801	22895	772
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	18068	18209	28042	62865	59177	3450
BAKKEN	6-2024	28	24099	23932	35750	73551	66536	6521
BAKKEN	5-2024	29	26133	25955	38154	58321	55004	3100
BAKKEN	4-2024	30	29608	29652	45222	55002	49589	5230
BAKKEN	3-2024	27	29171	29358	60526	51830	49879	1951
BAKKEN	2-2024	25	28027	27548	97362	48636	39956	8680

• 39573 conf, Grayson Mill, Barracuda 150-100-2-11-9H, Sandrocks,
• 39574 conf, Grayson Mill, Barracuda 150-100-1-12-1HLW, Sandrocks,

Updating The First Economically Successful Horizontal Well In The Bakken -- November 17, 2024

Locator: 44346B.

Link here.

******************************** 

First Economically Successful Fracked Horizontal Well In The Bakken

• 8201, 87, CRL, Robert Heuer 1-17R, a re-entry in a Madison -- DRY -- hole; Sadler field, 319,444 lbs of 20/40 sand; short lateral; t3/04; cum 123K 7/16; cum 145K 3/23. Re-entered. An old Madison well, re-entered -- the Bakken formation.
  

Update:

• 8201, 87, CRL, Robert Heuer 1-17R, a re-entry in a Madison -- DRY -- hole; Sadler field, 319,444 lbs of 20/40 sand; short lateral; t3/04; cum 123K 7/16; cum 145K 3/23; cum 149K 9/24. 

Back in 2010 / 2011:

BAKKEN	9-2011	27	2662	2998	1305	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2011	31	3207	3286	1878	2963	2963	0
BAKKEN	7-2011	31	1316	837	1625	961	961	0
BAKKEN	6-2011	22	644	1163	533	370	370	0
BAKKEN	5-2011	31	1205	813	547	639	639	0
BAKKEN	4-2011	29	1407	1777	503	1054	1054	0
BAKKEN	3-2011	31	2302	2298	910	2372	2372	0
BAKKEN	2-2011	26	4089	4628	1514	3218	3218	0
BAKKEN	1-2011	29	4778	4207	2739	3514	3514	0
BAKKEN	12-2010	31	1719	1185	2691	1561	1561	0
BAKKEN	11-2010	3	38	196	5	47	47	0
BAKKEN	10-2010	31	520	375	133	527	527	0
BAKKEN	9-2010	30	537	555	145	513	513	0
BAKKEN	8-2010	31	513	560	148	520	520	0
BAKKEN	7-2010	31	477	569	140	510	510	0
BAKKEN	6-2010	30	519	555	207	349	349	0

A Lana Del Rey Night; Movie Night -- November 17, 2024

Locator: 44345MOVIENIGHT.

For me, it's going to be a Lana Del Rey night. LaDeRe fans will know what I'm saying.

My wife hates LaDeRe. She doesn't get it. 

And then I stumbled across this: link here.

The insurance companies killed hitchhiking.

From the linked article:

The guest room might be gone, but my memories of it are not that distant.

In grandparents’ homes or family friends’, a room ready to host people overnight can still be found. It’s a reminder that the concept was en vogue not too long ago.

According to design writer and author Sarah Archer, the guest room as we once knew it is a product of the 20th century.

“Before the post-World War II housing boom, the idea of having enough extra space to keep a bedroom ready for visitors at a moment’s notice was pretty rare, and for the most part, only the wealthy could afford [it],” she explains. “Postwar suburban houses offered more room to spread out—for the white middle and lower-middle classes, specifically—which meant that guest rooms became more common, along with dens or family rooms. The guest room was essentially a sign of modest but serious wealth: What’s not there—storage, an actual person’s bedroom, a real workshop—says as much as what is there.”

The reasons for the guest room’s popularity are the same behind its demise. You know the facts: Homeownership has been replaced by rental agreements, flatshares are more common than family units, and suburban homes have given way to (very) small city apartments.

“Today, square footage is at such a premium, the idea of having a guest room feels like a luxury from the Gilded Age,” Sarah adds.

When you get less space for your money, prioritization becomes key. It’s something design advisor and WeIncontro founder Helena Agustí knows all too well. Her unique eye for decoration has made the homes she’s lived in real Instagram candy. When she searched for a new rental last year, a space to host guests was at the top of her want list.

Decades ago, while hitchhiking across the country (the US) I stayed overnight in any number of homes of those giving me a ride offered me. Is that not amazing? Total strangers picking up a hitchhiker and offering me a place to stay overnight.

One might want to look at the "origin" of "AirBNB." 

I remember keeping a sleeping back at a girlfriend's apartment when going to graduate school in Los Angeles. 

And then, Glen Campbell wrote a song about that. LOL. 

**************************
Movie Night

Play Misty For Me.

Clint Eastwood's directorial debut. Wow. A Malpaso Company production. 1971. My second year in college. I had seen southern California once -- the year before. Then I went back, four years, 1973 - 1977, University of Southern California.  Followed by three more years in northern California.

Apple's Number 1 Problem -- Doesn't Own This Space -- November 17, 2024

Locator: 44344APPLETV+.

NFL Streaming: it's a mess. Link to Reddit.

Too Little Too Late -- The Ukraine -- An Update -- November 17, 2024

Locator: 44343UKRAINE. 

During the campaign, Kamala Harris never said anything about doing this, or even considering this. 

The big question: who made this decision? 

As a reminder:

• Commander-in-chief: President Joe Biden
• Secretary of Defense: Lloyd J. Austin III
• US European Command (USEUCOM) / Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR: General Christopher G. Cavoli
• USAEUR-AF: US Army Europe and Africa
• USAFE-AFAFRICA: US Air Force
• USNF Europe-Africa: US Navy
• NATO, Chiefs of Defense, US: General Charles Q Brown, Jr.
• Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff: General Charles Q Brown, Jr.
• nation's highest-ranking military officer; principal military advisor to the president.
• US Permanent Representative to NATO: Ambassador Julianne Smith.
  

From wiki:

The United States Secretary of Defense is the head of the United States Department of Defense, the executive department of the U.S. Armed Forces, and is a high-ranking member of the federal cabinet.

The SecDef's position of command and authority over the military is second only to that of the president of the United States, who is  the Commander-in-Chief.

This position corresponds to what is generally known as a defense minister in many other countries.

To ensure civilian control of the military, U.S. law provides that the SecDef cannot have served as an active-duty commissioned officer in the military in the preceding seven years except for generals and admirals, who cannot have served on active duty within the previous ten years. Congress can legislatively waive this restriction and has done so three times, for George C. Marshall (Truman), James N. Mattis (Trump), and Lloyd J. Austin, III (Biden).

Subject only to the orders of the president, the SecDef is in the chain of command and exercises command and control, for both operational and administrative purposes, over all DoD-administered service branches – the Army, Marine Corps, Navy, Air Force, and Space Force – as well as the Coast Guard when its command and control is transferred to the Department of Defense.

Only the secretary of defense (or the president or Congress) can authorize the transfer of operational control of forces between the three military departments (Department of the Army, the Navy, and the Air Force) and the eleven Unified Combatant Commands.

Because the secretary of defense is vested with legal powers that exceed those of any commissioned officer, and is second only to the president in the military hierarchy, its incumbent has sometimes unofficially been referred to as "deputy commander-in-chief."

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is the principal military adviser to the secretary of defense and the president; while the chairman may assist the secretary and president in their command functions, the chairman is not in the chain of command.

The secretary of state, the secretary of the treasury, the secretary of defense, and the attorney general are generally regarded as the four most important (and are officially the four most senior and oldest) cabinet officials because of the size and importance of their respective departments.

The current secretary of defense is retired general Lloyd Austin, who is the first African American to serve in the position.

Has Austin, III, been over-ruled by Biden for the past two years?

Williams County -- Along The Montana State Line -- The Grayson Mill Sponheim Wells -- November 17, 2024

Locator: 44342B.

 

 

 The wells:

• 40335, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 2H, Briar Creek, t7/24; cum 30K 9/24;
• 40334, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 1H, Briar Creek, t7/24; cum 50K 9/24;
• 40352, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 5H, Briar Creek, t7/24; cum 90K 9/24;
• 40029, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 4H, Briar Creek, t6/24; cum 90K 9/24;
• 40028, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-45 3H, Briar Creek, t7/24; cum 90K 9/24;

The Incredible Duo -- Burgum-Wright -- Batman-Robin -- Don Quixote-Sancho Panza -- Zorro-Tonto -- November 17, 2024

Locator: 44341ENERGY.

Both will sit on the National Security Council. Historic. 

Finally, we're getting secretaries back in their correct lanes. And, not only that, they can drive.

Biden's DOE secretary was out of her lane and couldn't drive. And she had no guardrails.

Oklo. 

Link here.

From wiki:

Christopher Allen Wright is an American energy executive who is the chief executive of Liberty Energy. He is the presumptive nominee for United States Secretary of Energy under Donald Trump's second presidency, and will serve on the National Energy Council if confirmed by the Senate. He is a board member of Oklo Inc., a nuclear technology company, and EMX Royalty.

Digital Trends -- New Link -- November 17, 2024

Locator: 44340DIGITAL.

Blog inks are linked here. 

New link added today: DigitalTrends.

Apple -- Update -- November 17, 2024

Locator: 44339AAPL. 

Tag: Apple.

I might come back to these three links later.

MacBook Pro 16 vs MacBook Pro 14. Link here. The only Apple laptop with the new M4 chip?

Windows Bluetooth. Link here. Apple aficionados will know why I posted this.

India: link here. India's Tamil Nadu plant. 

India's "Silicon Valley": Tamil Nadu.

It's funny. A reader asked me what book I might want to recommend. I mentioned the book on the history of India. The reader, a huge investor in tech, said he did not have time for that -- rather, he was reading Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. My two books on India:

• India: A History, John Keay, c. 2000, 2010. 
• Vishnu's Crowded Temple: India Since The Great Rebellion, Maria Misra, c. 2007

EVs -- November 17, 2024

Locator: 44338EVS.

DigitalTrends: link here. 

Northvolt EU EV declaring bankruptcy: link here and here, The NYT.

Jeep: prices have gone through the roof; buyers are bailing; dealers are furious; how not to run a auto manufacturing business. Link here.

Auto worker wipeout, MSN: link here. Why car companies are cutting thousands of jobs.

Cheap EVs: google hertz's tesla fire sales continue -- full article here --

EVs: by now, we should be further along. Link here.

“Issues like charging infrastructure, high upfront costs, and potential lifestyle disruptions continue to deter many from making the transition,” Accenture says.

Meanwhile, charging infrastucture has continued to expand this year in the U.S., led by networks such as ChargePoint, Tesla’s SuperCharger, and Electrify America.

Wholesalers such as Costco and Walmart are adding EV-charging capacity. But the race to make EVs more affordable is facing hurdles now that Chinese-made electric vehicles face stiff tariffs in both Europe and America. [And the article doesn't even mention EV credits are likely to go away under Trump.]

Trump to end EV credits?