Congratulatory Notes And Phone Calls Flooding Trump's Mar-A-Lago -- November 6, 2024

Locator: 48727STRONG.

All of a sudden, "everyone" wants to get a headline / photo-op congratulating Trump on his victory. Justin Trudeau was one of the first. I think Netanyahu was the first. The list now goes on forever. Amazing how fast things change. 

My hunch: the Trump train has left the station. There are two groups of movers and shakers, global leaders right now. Those already on the Trump train; those who have missed the train. 

************************
Flashback

This was from June, 2024. 

The Clinton quote says it all.

Pat Gelsinger -- News -- November 6, 2024

Locator: 48726INTC.

Tag: INTC, Intel, 18A

Times of India. Link here.

Reuters. Link here.

AI generated:

AI Overview

Learn more…

Intel's 18A fabrication technology is on track for a 2025 launch, with high-volume production scheduled to begin in the second half of that year. Here's some more information about the status of Intel 18A: 

• Yield

  Intel says its 18A fabrication technologies are producing good-quality chips. However, some industry experts are concerned about Intel's ability to achieve good yields, which could put the company at a disadvantage to competitors like TSMC. 
• Products

  Intel's first two 18A products, the Panther Lake AI PC client processor and the Clearwater Forest server processor, have powered on and booted operating systems. 
• Customers

  Intel has secured AWS as a customer for its 18A process. 
• PDK

  Intel released its 18A Process Design Kit (PDK) 1.0 in July 2024, which allowed partners to update their tools and design flows. 
• Roadmap

  Intel 18A is one of the final nodes in the company's "5 Nodes in 4 Years" roadmap. It's the first node to include Intel's PowerVia power delivery system and RibbonFET gate-all-around transistor architecture.

*****************************
Problems?

From September 9, 2024:

Link here.

Disappointing financial results. A 15% layoff of its workforce. Restructuring and cost-reduction plans which may include the sale of FPGA unit Altera and freezing its USD 32 billion German fab project. Now, there seems to be more bad news on the way for Intel, as its advanced nodes, specifically 18A and 20A, reportedly run into trouble.

Broadcom Regards 18A Not Ready for High-volume Production

According to Reuters and The Verge, Broadcom’s initial tests with Intel’s 18A (1.8nm-class) process did not meet expectations, creating additional pressure on the semiconductor giant’s efforts to catch up with TSMC in the foundry sector. The reports note that Broadcom tested Intel’s 18A by producing wafers with typical design patterns. However, its engineers and executives were said to be disappointed with the results, regarding the process as “not ready for high-volume production.”

A Broadcom spokesperson informed Reuters that the company has not yet completed its evaluation of Intel’s 18A, indicating that the assessment is still in progress.

The 18A node plays a crucial role in Intel’s roadmap, as it has been working on the process for years, targeting to begin mass production next year, with major clients including Microsoft, according to the Verge.

However, another report from Tom’s Hardware also suggests that a defect density below 0.5 defects per square centimeter is typically seen as a positive outcome, which Intel may have already accomplished. Citing CEO Pat Gelsinger’s previous remarks, the report notes that Intel is now below 0.4 d0 defect density, which can be considered a healthy process.

20 A Cancelled: Not a Bad Idea for Cost-reduction?

Another latest bad news, though, is that Intel announced that it will no longer use its own 20A process for the upcoming Arrow Lake processors aimed at the consumer market. In its own words, the Arrow Lake processor family will be built primarily using external partners and packaged by Intel Foundry.

The unexpected move, according to Intel, is made in order to focus resources on Intel 18A, helping the company to optimize its engineering investments.

SRE -- For The Archives -- November 6, 2024

Locator: 48725SRE.

Oil and natural gas.

Trump "gets it."

The tea leaves suggest Trump is about to unleash the US oil companies.

This could be an incredible four years.

Time to review the art of war:

Life during wartime, link here:

Trump's "takeover" of Washington, DC, was .... insane ....

... I don't think what just happened in the last twenty-four hours has really sunk in yet.  

I don't think something like this has ever been seen before. 

The word I heard most in the past twenty-four hours: repudiation. 

So, google biden harris trump repudiation and what do you get? 

 *************************************
Didn't See This Coming

This is a simple utility stock, nothing more, nothing less.

**************************
Cry To Me

Link here.

For Some, The Automobile Recession Has Become A Depression -- November 6, 2024

Locator: 48724EVS.

Link here.

Qualcomm -- Earnings -- 3Q24

Locator: 48723QCOM.

Link here.

Qualcomm reported fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday that beat Wall Street expectations for earnings and revenue, and the company guided to a strong December quarter.

The shares rose 10% in extended trading at one point before falling to a gain of about 4%.

Here’s how the company did versus Refinitiv consensus expectations for the quarter ending September 29, 2024:

• Earnings per share: $2.69, adjusted $2.56 expected 
• Revenue: $10.24 billion versus $9.90 billion expected
  

Qualcomm said it expects revenue in the current quarter of between $10.5 billion and $11.3 billion, with the midpoint of that range beating LSEG consensus expectations of $10.59 billion.

The company reported $2.92 billion in net income, or $2.59 per share, a sharp jump from last year’s $1.49 billion, or $1.23 per share. Qualcomm reported $33.19 billion in total revenue in its fiscal 2024, a 9% increase from 2023.

Seven New Permits For Hunt Oil And Grayson Mill -- November 6, 2024

Locator: 48722B.

Politics: the most fun I've had in a long time -- watching / listening to MSNBC all day, starting with The View and, no doubt, ending with Rachel Maddow this evening. [No Rachel Maddow this evening; she has a very limited schedule these days. I had forgotten.]

***********************
Back to the Bakken

WTI:

Active rigs: 38.

Seven new permits, #41316 - #41322 , inclusive:

• Operators: Hunt Oil (5); Grayson Mill (2);
• Fields: Parshall (Mountrail); Sixmile (Williams)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has permits for two Falcon wells, NENE 25-153-103, 
• to be sited 322 FNL with one at 1278 FEL and the other at 1248 FEL;
• Hunt Oil has permits for three Patten wells, SWSW 33-153-89; and two Shell wells, NENW 20-153-89, 
• with the Patten wells to be sited 326 FSL and 274 FWL; 304 FWL; and, 334 FWL; 
• the two Shell wells will be sited 365 FNL with one well 2405 FWL and the other well 2375 FWL

Two permits renewed:

• Zavanna: a SWD permit; and,
• Grayson Mill: also a SWD permit.

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37835, 7,497, MRO, Laverne USA 24-33H, Mountrail County; see this post;
  
• 37836, 5,888, MRO, Duane USA 24-33TFH, Mountrail County; see this post;
• 37993, 756, Slawson, Challenger Federal 8-29-32H, Mountrail County;
• 40476, 1,317, CLR, Clover 4-10H, Dunn County;
• 40490, 1,258, CLR, Roadrunner 4-15HSL, Dunn County;

Grayson Mill reported two dry holes:

• 40933, Falcon 25-27F 4H, Williams County;
• 40934, Falcon 25-27 5H, Williams County;

******************************
Grayson Mill: Two Dry Holes Will Be Re-Entered

From today's daily activity report, the dry holes:

The new permits:

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 2 -- Dow Surges 1300 Points -- November 6, 2024

Locator: 48721CRAMER.

Dow Surges 1300 Points!!

Pre-market:

Reminder: The View, today, 10:00 - 11:00 a.m. on ABC. 

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Incredibly "smooth" election. Did anyone expect things to be settled before daylight the day following the election? The records set by Trump overnight are simply amazing. Historians will be writing about this election for years to come.

BRK-B: up $16 / share. Why? Banks.

CAT: up $27 / share. Literally overnight hits a 52-week high. This is amazing.

UNP: up $11 / share. Again, trending toward a 52-week high.

Cathie Wood: the big winner today.

A new day in America. More tax cuts. Less regulation. More spending. The Fed will cut 25 points tomorrow and then pause for the rest of the year. Trump's tax cuts from four years ago will be extended. IRA ("green energy") will be modified. CHIPs will be in play. Increased tariffs on China, Mexico. Trump is not happy that Mexico has not "paid" for southern border surge. He will sort that out. 

IRA ("green energy"):

What will replace "green energy"? Three guesses and the first two don't count:

Washington: Dems will have "zero" power in Washington next year. Political analyst at CNBC, at 9:30 a.m., October 6, 2024.

A dream bookshelf:

***********************************
The Book Page

Alan Hollinhghurst's Lost England, Charles McGrath, from The Atlantic, November, 2024, p. 80. In his new novel, te present isn't much better than the past -- and it's a lot less sexy. Alan Hollinghurst, wiki.

The article begins, "Henry James is Alan Hollinghurst's favorite writer, and in his native England, Hollinghurst, now 70, has over the years acquired a bit of Jamesian eminence himself ... his first novel in 1988 ... [new novel] Our Evenings for much of its nearly 500 pages is an old-fashioned coming-of-age story, lingering, in Hollinghurst's impeccable prose, at all the traditional tropes: seaside holidays, public school, Oxford exams, punting on the Cherwell, the first stirrings fo gay sexual desire, an unrequited cruse on a straight classmate."

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• Longer version here.

A Proposal: Financial Literacy -- November 6, 2024

Locator: 48492PERSINV.

Human and Health Services: Financial Health For All Americans (FHFAA).

For all students entering ninth grade, age 14: each student gets a minimum of $1,000 for investment.

• starting in ninth grade, all students required to take a financial course each year of high school;  
• not more than one hour / week mandatory (four hours / month); 
• three hours /month didactic; one hour / month: laboratory or field trips
  
• each student given a minimum of $1,000 for investment purposes
• additional gifts each year optional (10th, 11th, 12th grade) with restrictions
  
• students must open an account with a financial institution of their choice in which this $1,000 is placed
• upon graduation, those students can keep anything over $1,000; any amount in the account less than $1,000 must be returned to the US government (IRS) upon mandatory filing
• seniors committing to federal or state service of some sort (military, public health, teaching) keep the entire amount in their ending account; do not need to repay any of the original gift
• source of $1,000 -- based on parents' income bracket:
• 24% tax bracket or greater: 3% of their parents' income to the student's investment account; parents receive tax credit equal to investment amount;
  
• 22% - 23% tax bracket: 2% of their parents' income to the student's investment account; parents receive tax credit equal to investment amount;
• less than 22% tax bracket: $1,000 for each student but funds come from US government (HHS)
• source of $1,000 -- grandparents allowed to contribute in lieu of parents'
• tax-free distributions from traditional and Roth IRAs.
  

Data points:

• graduating seniors in US: 4 million students 
• HHS budget, annual: $1.631 trillion = $1,631 billion
• up-front: 2 million x $1,000 = $2 billion = 0.1% of total HHS budget
• BRK cash horde: $300 billion
• upfront: $2 billion = 0.6% of the BRK cash horde
• MMF: $6 trillion
• upfront: $2 billion / $6 trillion = 0.03% of total assets in MMFs
• Federal funding for highways, annual: $50 billion
• upfront: $2 billion / $50 billion = 4% 

Cost: due to the payback requirements, in the out-years, once the program is fully established and five years "old," there should be minimal cost to the US government. 

Cramer's First Hour -- November 6, 2024

Locator: 48720CRAMER.

Pre-market:

Reminder: The View, today, 10:00 - 11:00 a.m. on ABC. 

Reminder: the IRA was all about "green energy." Congress likes to pass big legislation. It will be interesting to see how Trump re-writes the IRA. First Solar is down 14% in pre-market trading.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Trump and team: will hit the ground running. No immediate distractions. The defeat was overwhelming: popular vote by at least five million; electoral college landslide. 

Scott Bessent. 

Apple laptops and desktops: amazing how many Apple computers were seen on television overnight.

David Rubinstein: what a national treasure.

First things first:

• tariffs (requires no legislative support); and,
• extend those Trump tax breaks which are due to expire in 2025.

Deficits, all of a sudden, no longer matter. 

Absolutely incredible: Trump takes Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

Good, bad, indifferent: there will be new energy in Washington, DC, between now and January 20th. This should be incredibly "exciting." No matter what side of the aisle one is one.

Good, bad, indifferent: did anyone expect that the election results would be over / would be known in less than twenty-four hours?

Moreno, Ohio: impressive. 

New book: The Genetic Book of the Dead: A Darvinian Reverie, Richard Dawkins, c. 2024. Already ordered.

New book: Ancient Christianities: The First Hundred Years, Paula Fredricksen, c. 2024. Considering.

New book: Religions of Early India: A Cultural History, Richard H. Davis, c. 2024. Considering.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• Longer version here.

Montana Senate Race -- "Too Early To Call" -- November 6, 2024

Locator: 48719MONTANA.

Updates

6:16 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024: the race has been called. Sheehy defeats Tester! This should cement GOP control of the US Senate. Schumer is out.

 Original Post

Right now, 5:40 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024:

Delta between  Sheehy (265,049)  and Tester (227,892): 28,157 votes. 

82% of votes are "in." Estimated remaining: 109,000.

Tester needs to grab 28,157 votes plus one-half of 109,000 (54,500) = 82,657 votes out of the 109,000 votes left to be counted, or 75.83% of all outstanding votes yet to be counted.

Texas, North Carolina -- Peter Zeihan -- November 6, 2024

Locator: 48718ECONOMY.

Early Wednesday Morning -- Something Other Than The Election -- November 6, 2024

Locator: 48717AUTOS.

From yesterday, early morning:

Now this, link here. Quality issues? That's certainly what it looks like when one reads the story.

********************************
Back to the Bakken

DAPL: one would assume the election results would put an end to the DAPL issue.

WTI: $71.09.

Friday, November 8, 2024: 9 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 583 for the year

• None.

Thursday, November 7, 2024: 9 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 583 for the year

• None.

Wednesday, November 6, 2024: 9 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 583 for the year

• 40310, conf, Hess, EN-Rice A-155-94-0310H-8,

RBN Energy: pace of gas-flow growth through Agua Dulce will depend on downstream projects. 

There may be ongoing uncertainty about the timing and volumes, but it’s not difficult to anticipate that natural gas flows through the Agua Dulce Hub near Corpus Christi will be rising significantly over the next few years as new LNG export capacity starts up and new gas-fired power plants come online in South Texas and south of the border in Mexico. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the status of the pipelines under development to transport gas into and out of Agua Dulce and the LNG facilities and power plants being planned and built to receive that gas. We’ll also look at our forecast for pipeline-corridor flows in the Agua Dulce area.