Five New Permits; Three Permits Canceled; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- October 28, 2024

Locator: 48672B.

Hydrogen: from RBN Energy, September 10, 2024: 

RBN Energy: how existing US hydrogen infrastructure forms a base for future expansion. Archived.

The hype around low-carbon-intensity (LCI) hydrogen that captivated many energy transition fans over the past four years has lost some momentum of late as industry players recalibrate their investment plans in the face of spiraling costs. Still, the U.S. government is moving full speed ahead — the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (2021) and Inflation Reduction Act (2022) promise to flow billions of dollars into LCI hydrogen infrastructure via tax credits and other incentives.

Which raises this question: Will LCI hydrogen make economic sense or not? In November 2021, the Department of Energy (DOE) asked the National Petroleum Council (NPC) to take a deep dive into the topic. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a review of the issues at hand.

Reality sucks, link here.

Remember Plug Power? I was suckered into investing, but got out quickly.

The "hydrogen" headlines this past year

Updates

October 28, 2024: hydrogen stocks crash as hype faces reality check.

September 10, 2024: hydrogen infrastructure update, RBN Energy.

August 19, 2024: hydrogen collapsing.

April 24, 2024: what's holding back hydrogen vehicles.

March 11, 2024: natural gas pipelines and hydrogen hubs.

December 28, 2023: Biden hits the brakes on hydrogen. A flurry of year-end stories.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.69.

Active rigs: 41.

Five new permits, #41283 - #41287, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR (3); Koda Resources (2)
• Fields: East Fork (Williams); Deaneville (Divide County)
• Comments;
• Koda Resouces has permits for two Bock wells, NWNw 24-161-102, 
• both to be sited 483 FNL with one at 654 FWL and the other 689 FWL;
• CLR has permits for two Peterson wells and one Chloe well, SWSE 20-156-99; 
• all three to be sited to be sited 300 FSL and at 1753 FEL; 1817 FEL: and, 1785 FEL

Three permits canceled:

• MRO: Quincy, Ebeltoft, and Beverly Dunn County; NWNE 18-145-93;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37578, 0, BR, Mathistad 2B MTFH, McKenzie County;
• 37581, 867, BR, Cross 2A MBH, McKenzie County;
• 40601, 526, True Oil; Slash Federal 11-4 4-9 TF1H; McKenzie County;

Ford — $38,250 Loss Per EV Delivered — Warranty Costs With Significant Impact On Earnings — CEO Is Coy On Warranty Costs — Overall Guidance Is Seen As Disappointing By Headline Writers — October 28, 2024

Locator: 48671FORD.

Ford. Link here. Also here. Also here.

CEO does not provide “hard numbers” for either the loss incurred on each EV sold or the warranty costs going forward into the out years.

For most recent quarter: misses on top line; beat on bottom line.

Volkswagen: slashing jobs. Could close three car plants in Europe.

Presidential politics: if Trump loses by a whisker, the post-mortem could easily include the MSG rally this past weekend. 

Hyperscalars: spending will increase by 40% next year. Rest of the market, spending will increase by 1%.

Thanksgiving meal prices this year: lower than last year. My hunch: won’t get a lot of attention by the MAGA cult.

Apple's Big Week -- Apple Intelligence Starting To Roll Out -- M4 Across The Board -- Updated Models -- October 28, 2024

Locator: 48670APPLE.

Perhaps the best source: MacRumors.

Also: The Verge. 

Perhaps even better: twitter.

My hunch: Tim Cook's Apple device of choice while traveling -- the M4 13-inch iPad Pro with detachable keyboard and Apple Pencil. 

In carry-on, Tim Cook probably also carries the Mac Mini. Currently only the M2 is available at the Apple website but announcements suggest the Mac Mini will "soon" be released with the M4 chip.

Supercomputer -- Elon Musk, Jensen Huang -- October 28, 2024

Locator: 48669NVIDIA.

Supercomputer, link here.

TOP500 Project: it would take just that long for government regulators, lawyers, and politicians to come up with a basic outline for a plan for such a project.

Lithium Update -- October 28, 2024

Locator: 48668LITHIUM.

Lithium in Nevada (Elon Musk): from last week.

Pretty hilarious.

Today, link here. 

Texas: home of so much lithium we'll never run out!

Meanwhile, how much lithium do we really need? Link here. Lithium demand doesn't just decline, it tanks:

Chevron Trimming Non-Core Assets; Closing In On Hess Deal -- October 28, 2024

Locator: 48667B.

Israel: having spent a lot of time over the weekend reading the various reports and the social media response, one really gets the feeling that armchair analysts -- professional and amateur -- have no idea how big a story that the Israeli response was.  

One hundred aircraft, most of them older model fighters (F-16s and F-15s) and only a few stealthy fighters, slow-moving tankers, and I assume AWACS, and telegraphing Iranians and Washington, DC, the attack was about to come, and not one a/c was lost. Surgical strikes and not hitting oil and nuclear sites per Biden's demand. And from what I can tell, Iran's entire air defense system was taken out.

WSJ: link here. Actually we've seen this movie before. Nominees for the annual Geico Rock Award: Daniel Michaels, Rajesh Roy.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.75.

Tuesday, October 29, 2024: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter, 572 for the year

• 40592, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 5B,
• 26450, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 150-99-26-35-4H,
• 26449, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 150-99-26-35-3H,

Monday, October 28, 2024: 55 for the month; 55 for the quarter, 569 for the year

• 40598, conf,  CLR, Doe 7-23H,
• 40216, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-6H

Sunday, October 27, 2024: 53 for the month; 53 for the quarter, 567 for the year

• 40215, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-5H,

Saturday, October 26, 2024: 52 for the month; 52 for the quarter, 566 for the year

• 40597, conf, CLR, Doe 6-23H,
• 40591, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 4B,
• 40214, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-4H,

RBN Energy: Chevron trimming non-core assets in advance of closing on Hess deal. Archived.

The multibillion-dollar acquisitions that have become almost routine in the upstream sector the past few years are typically accompanied by asset rationalization — in other words, a thoughtful look at which elements of the pro forma company make sense followed by the divestiture of those that don’t. In many cases, a key aim of that rationalization process is trimming any debt associated with the acquisition itself. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the big steps Chevron has been taking to rework its portfolio — and sell off up to $15 billion in assets — as it inches toward closing on its $60 billion purchase of Hess Corp. 

ExxonMobil’s $64.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources ($59.5 billion in stock plus the assumption of $5 billion of Pioneer debt), which closed in May, may be the biggest individual upstream deal ever. But when you add ’em up, Chevron’s M&A hat trick — Noble Energy ($13 billion; closed in October 2020), PDC Energy ($7.6 billion; closed in May 2023) and, most recently, Hess Corp. ($60 billion; closing sometime next year) — gives the second-largest descendant of Standard Oil bragging rights as the #1 upstream acquirer in recent history, with deals totaling more than $73 billion, including the assumption of a combined $17.5 billion of debt.