Week 40: September 30, 2024 -- October 6, 2024

Locator: 48498TOPSTORIES.

Top story: 

• Mideast: on the brink of all-out war
• Israel pivots to take on Hezbollah in Lebanon
• Iran responds with upwards of 400 ballistic missiles over Israel, two consecutive nights
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Ukraine: same ol', same ol'.

Top international energy story:

• 
  

Top national non-energy story:

• Category 4 Hurricane Helene recovery phase
• East Coast / Gulf Coast port strike: lasted two days after Biden administration steps in
  

Top national energy story:

• WTI spikes on shooting war in Mideast
  

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

• 
  

Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

The market in a nutshell: At the close -- Dow sets another record -- broad rally --

Sorenson Wells -- Grayson Mill -- Alger

Locator: 48497B.

Five new permits, October 4, 2024, #41206 - #41210, inclusive:

• Operators: Grayson Mill
• Field: Alger (Mountrail County)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has permits for five Sorenson wells, NWNE 29-155-92, 
• to be sited 230 FNL and at the distances FEL: 2320; 2290; 2260; 2230; and 2200.

Four wells of interest:

• 21952, 4,293, Grayson Mill, Sorenson 29-32 3H, Alger, t9/12; cum 423K 8/24;
• 21954, 3,078, Grayson Mill, Sorenson 29-32 4H, Alger, t9/12; cum 399K 8/24;
• 18654, 4,335, Grayson Mill, Sorenson 29-32 1-H, Alger, t4/10; cum 560K 8/24;
• 19513, 4,661, Grayson Mill, Sorenson 29-32 2-H, Alger, t3/11; cum 530K 8/24;

Grayson Mill With Five New Sorenson Permits -- October 4, 2024

Locator: 48496B.

Geo-Politics: most interesting geo-political article of the week. Agree completely. Link to the WSJ.  From the linked article: 

Netanyahu ordered the airstrike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah from a New York hotel room, even as Biden administration officials scrambled at the United Nations a few blocks away to avert a widening Middle East war last week.

The decision to approve the Sept. 27 strike from U.S. soil without alerting the White House beforehand—and later to make public a photo of himself issuing the order—underscored the growing divergence between Netanyahu’s government and the White House.

In the short term, Israel’s unilateral decision-making about striking Iran risks embroiling the Biden administration in another unpopular regional conflict. In the longer term, it could be another flashpoint for critics who say the U.S. gives Israel too much leeway, not using its leverage to rein in its ally.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.38 ... for the weekend?

Active rigs: 39.

Five new permits, #41206 - #41210, inclusive:

• Operators: Grayson Mill
• Field: Alger (Mountrail County)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has permits for five Sorenson wells, NWNE 29-155-92, 
• to be sited 230 FNL and at the distances FEL: 2320; 2290; 2260; 2230; and 2200.

Four wells of interest:

• 21952, 4,293, Grayson Mill, Sorenson 29-32 3H, Alger, t9/12; cum 423K 8/24;
• 21954, 3,078, Grayson Mill, Sorenson 29-32 4H, Alger, t9/12; cum 399K 8/24;
• 18654, 4,335, Grayson Mill, Sorenson 29-32 1-H, Alger, t4/10; cum 560K 8/24;
• 19513, 4,661, Grayson Mill, Sorenson 29-32 2-H, Alger, t3/11; cum 530K 8/24;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 40504, 1,654, EOG, Mandaree 0916-02H,
• 40506, 1,392, EOG, Mandaree 0916-04H,
• 40507, 1,653, EOG, Mandaree 0916-05H,

Dow Closes At An All-time High Just Before The Close -- October 4, 2024

Locator: 48495ARCHIVES.

From the Drudge Report:

Final CNBC interview / graphic just before the close: interview with Cathie Wood while showing this graphic:

Having said that, it was a must-see interview. Her top four AI choices, IIRC: xAI. META (Llama), GOOG (Gemini), xAI, and OpenAI -- I could be wrong on those, but I thought that's what she said. See this post.

Rivian -- October 4, 2024

Locator: 48494RIVIAN.

Below the fold, posted earlier. Re-posting now with these comments:

• note the huge change in number of units as the production target: from 57,000 down to 47,000
• that's almost a 20% cut in the production target
• there were at least three problems / concerns with regard to the company's explanation for the change in the production target
• first, the explanation for the change was inadequate in detail; it was a non-answer
• second, was the company suggesting they had a mismatch in production targets for their two products? Mismanaged execution?
  
• third, "in-house" -- they blamed the problem on its own in-house motors -- the company seemed they were not suggesting there was a supply chain problem -- that's huge.
  

*******************************
Rivian: Earlier Posting

Cramer: wrong on Rivian. He's "buying" the company's "due to a (single) part availability."

• but he does admit he really doesn't know. He appears to be talking his book when it comes to Rivian.  
• Link here. 
• The company said the lower production target — down from 57,000 units to between 47,000 and 49,000 — was because of a “production disruption due to a shortage of a shared component” for its R1 vehicles and commercial van.
• Rivian spokesman said the component causing the problem is part of its in-house motors, but he declined to disclose any further details.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

MMFs -- An Increase Of $40 Billion Week Over Week -- October 4, 2024

Locator: 48493MMF.

My favorite chart.

Link here. 

Proposal -- Not Ready For Prime Time -- October 4, 2024

Locator: 48492PERSINV.

Human and Health Services: Financial Health For All Americans (FHFAA).

For all students entering ninth grade, age 14: each student gets a minimum of $1,000 for investment.

• starting in ninth grade, all students required to take a financial course each year of high school;  
• not more than one hour / week mandatory (four hours / month); 
• three hours /month didactic; one hour / month: laboratory or field trips
  
• each student given a minimum of $1,000 for investment purposes
• additional gifts each year optional (10th, 11th, 12th grade) with restrictions
  
• students must open an account with a financial institution of their choice in which this $1,000 is placed
• upon graduation, those students can keep anything over $1,000; any amount in the account less than $1,000 must be returned to the US government (IRS) upon mandatory filing
• seniors committing to federal or state service of some sort (military, public health, teaching) keep the entire amount in their ending account; do not need to repay any of the original gift
• source of $1,000 -- based on parents' income bracket:
• 24% tax bracket or greater: 3% of their parents' income to the student's investment account; parents receive tax credit equal to investment amount;
  
• 22% - 23% tax bracket: 2% of their parents' income to the student's investment account; parents receive tax credit equal to investment amount;
• less than 22% tax bracket: $1,000 for each student but funds come from US government (HHS)
• source of $1,000 -- grandparents allowed to contribute in lieu of parents'
• tax-free distributions from traditional and Roth IRAs.
  

Data points:

• graduating seniors in US: 4 million students 
• HHS budget, annual: $1.631 trillion = $1,631 billion
• up-front: 2 million x $1,000 = $2 billion = 0.1% of total HHS budget
• BRK cash horde: $300 billion
• upfront: $2 billion = 0.6% of the BRK cash horde
• MMF: $6 trillion
• upfront: $2 billion / $6 trillion = 0.03% of total assets in MMFs
• Federal funding for highways, annual: $50 billion
• upfront: $2 billion / $50 billion = 4% 

Cost: due to the payback requirements, in the out-years, once the program is fully established and five years "old," there should be minimal cost to the US government. 

Cramer's First Hour, Part 4 -- Economy -- October 4, 2024

Locator: 48491CRAMER.

Misery index: link here. Currently running 4.1 + 2.3 = 6.5.

Inflation: with regard to inflation, I point you to this post. By the way, I highly recommend parents and grandparents give a copy of this book to their graduating high school students and college students. I would also highly recommend that grandparents provide an ongoing stream of "income" for their grandchildren once the grandchildren enter high school. See this post.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 3 -- EVs -- October 4, 2024

Locator: 48490CRAMER.

Apple Vision Pro: Mets owner Steve Cohen seen wearing Vision Pro at the game! Mets take on the Phillies, best of five. First game, tomorrow, Saturday. New York Mets! Wow!

The meme: the Department of Defense is America's problem when it comes to the budget.

Link here. 

Presidential election: will be decided in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. Swing county in swing state. 

The county represents the northern boundary of the Philadelphia–Camden–Wilmington, PA–NJ–DE–MD metropolitan statistical area.

Cramer is amazing, what he knows. Right, wrong, indifferent.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 2 -- EVs -- October 4, 2024

Locator: 48489CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Cramer: wrong on Rivian.

• But he does admit he really doesn't know. He appears to be talking his book when it comes to Rivian.  
• Link here. 
• The company said the lower production target — down from 57,000 units to between 47,000 and 49,000 — was because of a “production disruption due to a shortage of a shared component” for its R1 vehicles and commercial van.
• Rivian spokesman said the component causing the problem is part of its in-house motors, but he declined to disclose any further details.

EVs: the memo is here. Needs government support. Wow, how much more support do they need? Mandates, tax credits. 

Stellantis: why autos get low multiples. Direct to Barron's. 

The problem for Stellantis isn’t with EVs or hybrids. It’s a more conventional issue.

The company let dealer inventory levels get far too high.

U.S. inventories for Dodge dealers ended August at almost 150 days of sales, up from 116 a year ago.

The industry tries to work with about 60 days of inventory on dealer lots.

The company has blamed poor marketing among other things. [Who is responsible for marketing?]

Whatever the root cause, the situation has angered dealers.

“The reckless short-term decision making to secure record profits in 2023 has had devastating, yet entirely predictable consequences in the U.S. market” reads part of a September letter from Stellantis’ U.S. National Dealer Association.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  

Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- Bidenomics -- October 4, 2024

Locator: 48488CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Carl, Santelli, and the judge. Add Sara Eisen to this and one would have the best CNBC panel. Period. Dot. Andrew Ross Sorkin was always weak. I often think he wishes he had four names, like George Herbert Walker Bush. Kernan has become a joke.

Blowout! Jobs. September jobs.

• 254,000 vs 150,000 forecast
• are you kidding me
• this number is extraordinary
• best job "print" since March, 2024, but that's truly an understatement; 
• doesn't really "paint the picture" 
• Florida's Marco Rubio on the jobs number. Tedious.
  

Surges! The market.

Cramer! A "no-landing" number. Stagflation -- rolls eyes.

Economy: has never happened before --

• full employment
• inflation below 2%; trending lower
• certainly not stagflation
• earnings better come in strong
• only battleground: AAPL

The question not being asked: how could analysts be so far off

• 254 vs 150
• revisions revised up (more jobs)

Unemployment: Table A-15: 

Acting labor secretary! Really remarkable! I'm impressed. She's exactly right with regard to the longshoremen (and women).

Big corporate monopolies: tech companies are finding work-arounds. Good, bad, indifferent. Just an observation.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  

Pre-Cramer, Part 3 -- October 4, 2024

Locator: 48489CRAMER.

Tag: EVs. 

Pre-Cramer: some days there is so much news, one has to get started early. 

Spirit Airlines: ticker plunging. Not surprising.

Rivian: ticker plunging. Company blames it on parts shortage. But admits that lower demand is also affecting production. Down 9% in pre-market trading. 

Pre-Cramer, Part 2 -- October 4, 2024

Locator: 48486B.

Pre-Cramer: some days there is so much news, one has to get started early. 

NIKE: compare this chart with that of NVDA just for the fun of it. The purpose is to show how really helpful these charts can be. Comparing the charts, not the companies. Link here.

Palantir: not for the faint-hearted. Look at the P/E.

EVs challenge, link here:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Pre-Cramer, Part 1 -- October 4, 2024

Locator: 48485B.

Pre-Cramer: some days there is so much news, one has to get started early.

NYM: steals one from the Brewers. Headed to the divisional playoffs. 

Gmail: revamped. I haven't noticed the change yet.

Spirit Airlines: just what the DOJ wanted. One less discount airline to compete with the majors. Wow. 

Palantir: okay.

Austin: The New Yorker, a few months ago. Worth a re-look. Musk re-locates to Austin. Yes, Austin. Link here. Texas relocation tracked here.

Ticket to ride: The New York Times.

Southern surge: adults are back int the room.

Apple SE: the news keeps getting better. The big news? It appears that Apple has no shortage of its phenomenal chips. One of many articles on the new SE.

Enbridge; to build a new pipeline for BP. Charles Kennedy. So you know it's a good article.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Twelve Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over The Weekend -- October 4, 2024

Locator: 48484B.

Chart of the day:

US field production of crude oil, link here:

• record: 13,308 million bopd
• streak: last four months over 13,200 million bopd
• streak: six of last nine months over 13,200 bopd

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.99. And more coming? This should cover generous payouts that have been promised the past two years. There have been concerns.

Sunday, October 6, 2024: 19 for the month; 19 for the quarter, 533 for the year
40308, conf, Phoenix Operating, Young 5-6-1-0H-LL
38206, conf, Petroshale, Bear Chase North 2TFH,
29658, conf, Grayson Mill, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-13HLW,

Saturday, October 5, 2024: 16 for the month; 16 for the quarter, 530 for the year
40276, conf, Phoenix Operating, Young 5-6-1 4H ,
40275, conf, Phoenix Operating, Young 5-6-1 3H,
40274, conf, Phoenix Operating,Young 5-6-1 2H,
40206, conf, Phoenix Operating, Young 5-6-1 1H,
37822, conf, Enerplus, Fennec 149-93-10B-15H,
17924, conf, Grayson Mill, Moberg 1-29H,

Friday, October 4, 2024: 10 for the month; 10 for the quarter, 524 for the year
40578, conf, Oasis, Iceman Federal 5601 34-04 5B,
40322, conf, Oasis, Iceman Federal 5601 34-04 4B,
38261, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817-5,

RBN Energy: CITGO refineries to be bought by Amber Energy seen as survivors in competitive market.

It now seems likely that Elliott Investment Management’s Amber Energy will acquire CITGO Petroleum for $7.3 billion in mid-2025, thereby ending a yearslong legal drama about the fate of CITGO’s three large U.S. refineries and related pipelines and terminal assets. So what exactly is Amber buying and how will the refineries in question fare in the increasingly competitive global market for refined fuels? In today’s RBN blog, we’ll summarize the long legal battle that led to Amber’s selection by a federal court’s “special master” as the preferred buyer, examine the assets to be acquired, and assess what’s ahead for CITGO’s refineries, which have a combined capacity of more than 800 Mb/d.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.