Never Quit Doing Your Homework -- Cramer -- Or It Mostly Luck? September 24, 2024

Locator: 48389COPPER.

For the archives: several years ago I started a position in both SCCO and Freeport-McMoRan -- the reasons should be obvious. I held both positions for awhile, although I was lukewarm about Freeport. Finally in 2022, or thereabouts, I had to make a decision, one or none, but no longer positions in two copper companies. For what it's worth, I decided to keep one copper company. My research suggested SCCO would do better over the long term. I chose SCCO over Freeport. I sold Freeport, and kept adding to my SCCO position on a regular basis. It's unlikely I will add much more to that position. It will be transferred to one of the grandchildren, I will forget all about it, and move on to something else.

Mostly luck, I would say. But, wow, the chart is amazing. In addition to the long-term difference, SCCO seems the better choice for volatility, something benefiting traders, which I am not.

Locator: 48376COPPER.

 *******************************
The Book Page

Christopher Isherwood, Inside Out, Katherine Bucknell, c. 2024. Notes here.

Wow, what a book. Connects a lot of dots. 

729 pages. 

The author is the editor of four volumes of diaries by Christopher Isherwood; The Animals, a volume of letters between Isherwood and his longtime partner, Don Bachardy; and W.H. Auden's Juvenilia: Poems, 1922 -1928. She is the director of the Christopher Isherwood Foundation as well as a founder of the W. H. Auden Society and co-editor of Auden Studies. Bucknell is also the author of four novels: Canarino, Leninsky Prospekt, What You Will, and +J. She lives in London. 

**************************
Marketing

I recently posted a short note on Apple's marketing. The more I see Apple Intelligence commercials the more I see how incredible Apple's marketing is / was. 

The new iPhone is so revolutionary, Tim Cook realized consumers would not be able to "absorb" it all -- so he opted to roll it out slowly. The early adopters have already upgraded but the vast majority of us are waiting ... and mostly learning what Apple Intelligence is all about. 

This one I particularly enjoy / find fascinating.

The "face" of the new Apple Intelligence commercials: 

Link at Adweek.

Apple Intelligence will launch on iPhone, iPad, and Mac devices along with the iPhone 16 release. The tools work across apps to help generate movies, search photos and videos, clean up images, transcribe audio, and prioritize emails.

Additional features will roll out throughout the year, including the ability to access ChatGPT and an updated version of Siri that will work across Apple and third-party apps.

This is going to be awesome. 

*****************************
Land of the Free

The phrase was made famous by Francis Scott Key, but one wonders where he got the phrase. I don't think it originated with him. It just doesn't fit what I know about global "politics" at the time. The phrase came out of the War of 1812 and more specifically the Battle of Baltimore, 1814. That certainly wasn't a war for freedom. It was a war for territory. Wasn't it? 

I think Francis Scott Key "stole" the phrase from some other source. 

I think Susanna Ashton stumbled across it without knowing! It practically jumps out at you in her new book, A Plausible Man. One link here.

The irony: the land of the free was not what we think.

Tell Me Again, Free Money Is Bad For The Economy -- September 24, 2024

Locator: 48388BIDENOMICS.

Tag: Krugman. Link here.

Link here. By the way, there is something that corroborates the graph below.

See this post.

Locator: 48324ECONOMY. 

US consumer, link here:

The meme: if the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points, the US economy must be in worse shape than we're being told.

I simply don't agree with that; I don't see that. The key word: "recalibration." 

Regardless.

Let's look at it this way. Binary.

The economy is in worse shape than they are telling us. Okay. The Fed did the right thing, cutting by 50 basis points.

The economy is doing much better than folks realize. The Goldilocks economy. Okay. The Fed sees the "need" / "opportunity" to "recalibrate" / "normalize" its effect on the economy. 

In either case, by reducing rates, the Fed's actions will "goose" the economy.

I go back to this post:

Easy money: the question is now being raised -- should "easy money" be the norm? The economy took off (excelled) when the US had twelve years of easy money; April, 2008 -- September, 2022. Actually 14 years. A generation of Americans have only known "easy money." It becomes an even more fascinating question when we look at the real reason for inflation. Was Paul Krugman right all along? Even Steve Liesman is willing to play along, entertaining that thought.

Or was it simply about easily accessible, easily affordable, dispatchable energy?

Let's not overthink this.

The EU's crude oil production:

At the end of the day, it's still a global economy. The economy of the US is head and shoulders ahead of whatever else is out there. The UK, as an example, is in great trouble, and despite that, England's central bank did not lower rates today. Meanwhile, the US in great shape, and the Fed cuts by a surprising 50 basis points. On CNBC just a few minutes ago (do folks remember Meredith Whitney from decades ago)?

Carl Q: should the Fed have cut the rate by 50 basis points?

Meredith Whitney: absolutely. I was surprised but absolutely the Fed should have cut rates by 50 basis points, and it needs to get to a 100-bp cut as soon as possible, certainly by the end of the year.

It is interesting that every talking head / analyst / economist that I've heard speak in the past eighteen hours agrees that the 50-bp cut was the right thing to do. Even those who expected a 25-bp cut enthusiastically support the 50-bp cut. I have never paid much attention (in the past) to those who are now arguing that the Fed should have left rates alone, or even, perhaps, even have raised them. 

The above charts are simply amazing.

One more:

All Of A Sudden, Efforts To Kill The Fossil Fuel Industry Seem Short-Sighted, Foolish -- Hope Springs Eternal -- September 24, 2024

Locator: 48387AI.

Link here.

OPEC thinking so also? Link here.

MRO Activity In Reunion Bay -- September 24, 2024

Locator: 48386MRO.

Disclaimer: done quickly while being highly distracted -- could be many typographical and content errors.

The wells:

• 40376, conf/drl, MRO, Becker USA 34-32TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum -- ; npd;
• 40377, conf/drl, MRO, Hultberg USA 44-32H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum -- ; npd;
• 40378, conf/drl, MRO, Humble USA 44-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum -- ; npd;
• 40379, conf/drl, MRO, Spaulding USA 42-32H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum -- ; npd;
• 40380, conf/drl, MRO, Thelma USA 14-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum -- ;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	2	0	0	9	0	0	0

• 40400, conf/drl, MRO, Donkin USA 14-33H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum -- ; npd;
• 37834, loc/drl, MRO, Betty Lou USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum -- ; npd;
• 37835, loc/drl, MRO, LaVerne USA 24-33H, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum -- ;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	7	16168	16101	13574	19357	18252	1034

• 37836, loc/drl, MRO, Duane USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum -- ;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	7	26377	26268	26893	32239	30396	1725

• 37837, loc/drl, MRO, Lillian USA 24-33H, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum -- ;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	9	31642	31511	26849	31513	29750	1650

• 37838, loc/drl, MRO, Dawson USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum -- ;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	14	31437	31307	41228	30567	28863	1595

• 37839, loc/drl, MRO, Gladheim USA 34-33H, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum -- ;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	14	31437	31307	41228	30567	28863	1595

• 37839, loc/drl, MRO, Gladheim USA 34-33H, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum -- ;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	18	47741	47544	47913	56489	53270	3013

• 37840, loc/drl, MRO, Olive USA 34-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum -- ;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	17	13144	13090	42053	13759	12986	724

Completed and producing wells:

• 33545, PNC, MRO, Robert 31-4H, Reunion Bay,
• 26805, 1,882, MRO, Renn 41-4TFH, Reunion Bay, t5/14; cum 334K 7/24;
• 26806, 2,574, MRO, Tollefson 41-4H, Reunion Bay, t5/14; cum 383K 7/24;
• 26807, IA/2,704, MRO, Earl Pennington USA 44-33H, Reunion Bay, t5/14; cum 577K 5/24;
• 27366, PA/2,395, MRO, Grover 11-3TFH, Reunion Bay, t5/14; cum 251K 10/19;
• 33548, 4,283, MRO, Alexander USA 44-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/18; cum 509K 7/24;
• 33549, 5,284, MRO, Pfundheller USA 44-33H, Reunion Bay, t7/18; cum 401K 7/24;
• 33550, IA/5,989, MRO, Kattevold USA 14-34TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/18; cum 406K 2/24;

Don't Skip Through This One -- Note The Initial Production Numbers -- MRO Inventory -- Four Bears Oil Field -- September 24, 2024

Locator: 48385MRO.

From today's daily activity report. These are extended, long laterals -- three sections (laydown) -- 1920-acre spacing.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 40169, 3,942, MRO, Lawson USA 11-20TFH, Four Bears:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	30	30960	31106	41459	48835	48378	341
BAKKEN	6-2024	16	31279	31078	50034	33338	33193	10

• 40170, 3,005, MRO, Star USA 11-20H, Four Bears:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	16	18505	18640	16685	20639	20450	141
BAKKEN	6-2024	20	26169	26001	19491	30241	30108	9

Other wells on that pad, from west to east, and all horizontals run to the east:

• 40160, conf/loc, MRO, Murray USA 13-20H, Four Bears, t--; cum --;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	20	49394	49305	35492	41468	41098	276

40161, conf/loc, MRO, Robertson USA 14-20TFH, Four Bears, t--; cum --;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	20	58637	58532	56184	61062	60506	415

40162, conf/loc, MRO, Murray USA 13-20H, Four Bears, t--; cum --;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	101789	101607	76312	132757	131530	916

40163, conf/loc, MRO, Emma USA 13-20TFH, Four Bears, t--; cum --;

40164, conf/loc, MRO, Murray USA 13-20H, Four Bears, t--; cum --;

40165, conf/loc, MRO, Stout USA 13-20TFH, Four Bears, t--; cum --;

40166, drl/drl, MRO, Harrison USA 12-20H, Four Bears, t6/24; cum 75K 7/24;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	75389	75394	54330	87306	86505	598
BAKKEN	6-2024	5	21728	21588	16878	22921	22821	7

40167, drl/drl, MRO, Vondall USA 12-20TFH, Four Bears, t6/24; cum 71K 7/24;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	28	46331	46405	63137	57723	57191	397
BAKKEN	6-2024	9	24357	24200	32573	27420	27300	8

40168, drl/drl, MRO, Andie USA 12-20H, Four Bears, t6/24; cum 7/24;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	30	39174	39275	50986	51436	50960	355
BAKKEN	6-2024	15	26644	26473	45200	36128	35969	10

The map:

 

Many wells of interest but too early to look at them at this point.

End Of Day Report -- September 24, 2024

Locator: 48384B.

US markets:

And, more, link here: 

Mag 7, link here: 

BRK-B, this past month:

NVDA:

This week:

Past year:

SCCO: up 7% today.

AMD: interests me with regard to "accelerated computing."

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.56.

Active rigs: 33.

Four new permits, #41171 - #41174, inclusive:

• Operator: CLR
• Field: West Capa (Williams)
• Comments:
• CLR has permits for two Kenneth wells and two Helen wells, NWNW 17-154-96; 
• to be sited 295 FNL and at 577 FWL; 609 FWL; 641 FWL; and, 673 FWL. 
• these wells will be on the same pad for the five wells that were permitted by CLR yesterday.

Two permits renewed:

• BR: two Omlid permits, Eliday oil field, McKenzie County,

Three permits canceled:

• Grayson Mill: two Helling permits and one Lonnie permit canceled; McKenzie County.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 40169, 3,942, MRO, Lawson USA 11-20TFH, Four Bears:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	30	30960	31106	41459	48835	48378	341
BAKKEN	6-2024	16	31279	31078	50034	33338	33193	10

• 40170, 3,005, MRO, Star USA 11-20H, Four Bears:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	16	18505	18640	16685	20639	20450	141
BAKKEN	6-2024	20	26169	26001	19491	30241	30108	9

Dry hole:

• 33896, dry, Oasis, Berry 5493 44-7 13B,

Apple: Master Of Marketing -- September, 24, 2024

Locator: 48383APPLE.

Constant theme from Apple analysts: the new iPhone 16 was released without its AI software.

Apple Intelligence starts to roll out next month and will be rolled out in modules for the indefinite future.

Bastrop, Texas -- September 24, 2024

Locator: 48382MUSK.

Tag: Musk  

From Chron: "X" moving from San Francisco to Texas, but not Austin. LOL.

Link here.

Texas relocation tracked here.

Bastrop is a city and the county seat of Bastrop County, Texas, United States. The population was 9,688 according to the 2020 census. It is located about 30 mi southeast of Austin and is part of the Greater Austin metropolitan area. 

Distance from Laredo, TX, to Oklahoma City, OK:  driving distance, I-35, 640 miles and travel time is about 11 hours.

I-35 corridor from Laredo, TX, to Oklahoma City, OK: five miles wide and 640 miles long.

• Laredo --> San Antonio --> Austin --> Waco --> DFW --> Oklahoma City

Global Warming -- Say What? It Was Never Real Anyway -- Or Was It? ETSC Update -- September 24, 2024

Locator: 48381ETSC.

Just one look.

ETSC is tracked here.

Link here.

Winners and losers.

A new copper supercycle is emerging. Posted June 11, 2024, absolutely prescient.

Commodity supercycle coming, September 2, 2024.

Just one look:

Just one look.

"Just One Look" was the only charting US hit for Doris Troy, who wrote the song, along with Gregory Carroll.

The song was recorded in 10 minutes in October 1962, with producer Buddy Lucas, as a demo for Atlantic Records. However, after Atlantic Records heard the demo, they decided not to re-record it, instead releasing it unchanged. The musicians included Ernie Hayes on organ, Wally Richardson on guitar, Bob Bushnell on bass, and Bernard "Pretty" Purdie on drums.

The song has been covered by The Hollies, Faith, Hope & Charity, Major Lance, Linda Ronstadt, Bryan Ferry, Anne Murray, Klaus Nomi, and Harry Nilsson in a duet with Lynda Laurence.

After moving to London in 1969, Doris Troy was signed by The Beatles to their Apple Records label, and released the Doris Troy album the following year, co-produced by Troy and George Harrison. Troy worked in the UK throughout the 1970s, appearing at Ronnie Scott's Club and recording a live album, The Rainbow Testament.

Halo Effect In Blue Buttes Oil Field -- September 24, 2024

Locator: 48380HALOEFFECT.

Tomorrow:

• 38259, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817H-7,  Blue Buttes:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2024	22572	38611
6-2024	21447	37437
5-2024	21245	35298
4-2024	28145	53503
3-2024	5007	7658

The BB-Olson wells are tracked:

BB-Olson Wells (Hess, Blue Buttes) and now, here, as of September,2023.

*********************************
Halo Effect

Some of the wells in this same vicinity of the above well:

• 23289, 1,500, Hess, BB-Olson 150-95-0817H-2, Blue Buttes, t3/13; cum 451K 7/23; nice halo effect, 6/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	25	5773	5842	6069	14972	11146	3808
BAKKEN	6-2024	27	16931	17001	9712	48951	47946	947
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	24267	24241	20734	53489	52246	1160
BAKKEN	4-2024	30	28744	28793	28923	57383	56127	1187
BAKKEN	3-2024	11	14431	14398	13766	24719	23600	1061
BAKKEN	2-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2023	16	1197	1219	280	2516	2277	89
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	3183	3203	800	7531	6955	276
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	3545	3591	886	7567	6324	933
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	3664	3618	786	7343	5221	1822

• 16610, 267, Hess, BB-Olson 150-95-0817H-1, Blue Buttes, t9/07; cum 477K 7/23; a real "steady Eddie,"
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	10010	9966	5130	14294	10502	3775
BAKKEN	6-2024	14	4875	4842	2359	7619	7375	236
BAKKEN	5-2024	8	0	0	73	504	501	2
BAKKEN	4-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2023	0	0	87	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	21	699	822	285	1429	1403	26
BAKKEN	6-2023	18	1298	1228	138	2404	2356	48
BAKKEN	5-2023	26	1046	1188	90	1991	1957	34
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	1835	1760	232	3982	3925	57

There are probably more. I just get tired of looking. The point has been made over and over and over -- an interesting phenomenon in the Bakken about which no one else seems to acknowledge but something small mom-and-pop mineral owners enjoy.

Again, the "halo effect" is multi-factorial. There is no one reason for this phenomenon.

It seems to be more common in some oil fields than in others. The Bailey oil field is particularly noteworthy when it comes to the halo effect.