CLR With One New Permit; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 16, 2024

Locator: 48602B. Or not 2B.

WTI: $70.44.

Active rigs: 39.

One new permit:

• 41137, conf, CLR, Shadowcat 1-31H, SESE 31-162-95, wildcat, Divide County; to be sited 502 FSL and 502 FEL, spacing unit, section 31-162-95.

Wells of interest: the first well below is off line due to neighboring wells recently completed, but the second well is back on line and shows a definite halo effect from the Sinclair (SOGC) wells that came off confidential list today (Saetz Federal and Harris Federal):

• 27849, 935, SOGC (Sinclair), Bighorn 2-6H, Mary, t9/14; cum 217K 7/24;
• 19055, 1,089, SOGC (Sinclair), Bighorn 1-6H, Mary, t7/11; cum 271K 724;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37471, 1,277, SOGC (Sinclair), Saetz Federal 4-36H, McKenzie County; Lone Butte:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	22	26406	25794	64357	46203	4397	41806

• 37484, 1,558, SOGC (Sinclair), Saetz Federal 5-36H, McKenzie County; Lone Butte:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	14	25298	24474	44859	40408	0	4040

• 38972, 2,277, SOGC (Sinclair), Harris Federal 3-31H, Dunn County; Lone Butte:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	27	37517	37019	53578	58115	12999	45116

• 38973, 1023, SOGC (Sinclair),Harris Federal 4-31H, Dunn County; Lone Butte:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	32689	33106	54565	50285	6023	44262

BP -- On Shore Wind -- Sayonara -- September 16, 2024

Locator: 48601RENEWABLES.

Tag: wind energy.

Remember when BP's marketing tag was "BP = Beyond Petroleum." And their pivot to renewable energy. 

Link here. 

Magnificant 7 Partnerships -- AWS, NVDA, And CRWD -- September 16, 2024

Locator: 48600TECH.

Link here.

Long thread of interest.

Meanwhile, Oracle headed for record close. Up 5% late afternoon trading. Palantir (PNTR) up 3%.

Cramer's First Hour -- Empire State Manufacturing Survey -- Huge Surprise -- AAPL Plunges -- Monday, September 16, 2024

Locator: 48599CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  Link here.

.Goldman Sachs, link here:

Cramer: livid with anger about analysts reporting poor Apple iPhone 16 sales over the weekend -- iPhone 16 Pro and Max Pro. 

Cramer: still bullish on DIS. Owns it for his charitable trust. 

Tech: "everything" looks negative pre-market; exception -- Oracle up a bit. Cramer, et al, spent a lot of time on Oracle. Broadcom, Oracle, and Nvidia up double-digits last week. 

Personal investing: Sophia looking at taking advantage of buying tech on the dip. 

Empire State Manufacturing Survey, link here. Forecast: -0.5. Actual: up 11.5 points.

WTI: reclaims $70. 

AAPL: down over $8 at the open. Down 3.6%. 

Boeing: incredibly, 45 minutes into Cramer's first hour and has not mentioned Boeing, unless I missed it. But does discuss Cleveland-Cliffs and US Steel.

Musical interlude: Miami Vice.  

Later: again, on CNBC today, mid-day, the talk was back to "hard landing" vs "soft landing." It feels like we've been having this discussion for years. It makes one wonder how long we're going to have this discussion. As far as I can tell, there's been no "advertised" timeline.

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Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Update: TSMC -- Arizona -- September 16, 2024

Locator: 48598TSM.

Link here.

From the linked article:

TSMC first announced plans to build a new semiconductor fab in Arizona in 2020, and ever since then, it's reportedly been beset by multiple delays, labor shortages, and culture clashes. Now, things appear to be looking up for TSMC, as Bloomberg reports the company performed a successful yield test in April, and the results matched those from a TSMC fab in Taiwan.

TSMC produces its most advanced products in Taiwan. The company seeks to replicate those facilities in Arizona, but with less-advanced processes at first while its operations get up to speed. The test was reportedly performed on a 4nm process—several years behind the 3nm process it currently uses in Taiwan but still the node of choice for both Nvidia and AMD's latest hardware. Unfortunately, the report doesn't say what the yield numbers were. In an email to Bloomberg, TSMC stated that the company's project in Arizona is "proceeding as planned with good progression,” but it didn't mention what yields it has achieved. The Tainan facility that the Arizona fab is being compared to is home to Fab 18, which is used for both 5nm and 3nm wafer production, and has been producing 5nm chips since 2020.

TSMC was originally supposed to enter high-volume production at its Arizona facility this year, but that has been pushed back to 2025 due to labor shortages. However, the company has three different fabs planned for the desert location, and the yield test was performed on its first location, which has been four years in the making. According to the company, its second fab might be delayed until 2027, and TechSpot reports the third fab will come online at the end of the decade.

One central sticking point that could impact TSMC's plans in Arizona is when it will receive the promised funds from Uncle Sam. In April, TSMC was awarded $11 billion from the CHIPS Act, so it's probably looking at its checking account daily to see when the direct deposit will hit.

Road To Texas -- Housing -- September 16, 2024

Locator: 48597TEXAS.

 From local community report:

Texas needs about 306,000 more homes to meet demand, research shows.

The details: Texas’ population growth has outpaced homebuilding since 2020, according to the state comptroller’s office, resulting in a widespread housing shortage. Home prices shot up during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, as remote work policies allowed more people to move to Texas.

Zooming in: A Texan who wants to sell their current home and purchase a new one should make about $113,000 to qualify for a mortgage loan, compared to about $70,000 at the beginning of the pandemic, said Clare Knapp, a housing economist for the Austin Board of Realtors. A first-time buyer should have an income of about $78,000 to qualify for a loan, up from $45,000 in early 2020.

Manic Monday -- AAPL and Boeing In Focus -- September 16, 2024

Locator: 48596B.

Boeing: bankruptcy is now on the table.

Apple: pre-market, AAPP down $5 / share.

• Gene Munster:
• all AI features will take six months to roll out
• Munster's projections (sales): more optimistic than consensus

Tech: pre-market. All tech is trading down today.

TSM: from Peter Zeihan this morning --

The Trump administration demanded that TSMC build the best facility they possibly could in the United States, and it is…not happening. Taiwan's efforts in the US are little more than a kabuki effort to appease the US and maintain its favor. In contrast, new fabs in Japan are moving along swimmingly, as the Japanese didn't insist upon the cutting-edge technology that the US wanted.

Emmy:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.03.

Tuesday, September 17, 2024: 35 for the month; 163 for the quarter, 487 for the year
38262, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817H-4, Blue Buttes,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2024	27823	60727
6-2024	35268	66827
5-2024	21925	38988
4-2024	28966	48690
3-2024	17246	22471

Monday, September 16, 2024: 34 for the month; 162 for the quarter, 486 for the year
None.

Sunday, September 15, 2024: 34 for the month; 162 for the quarter, 486 for the year
40356, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 2-28H,

Saturday, September 14, 2024: 33 for the month; 161 for the quarter, 485 for the year
40221, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 1-28HSL,

RBN Energy: unprecedented TETCO East Louisian premiums not likely to stick around. Archived.

Natural gas futures contracts can be highly liquid and trade at high volumes, with prices constantly moving as new information arrives. But some contracts are far less liquid, so when a swing occurs it tends to last — and attract attention.

That’s been the case this year for some prices on Texas Eastern Pipeline (TETCO) in Louisiana. Starting in the spring, TETCO’s East and West Louisiana zones have seen unusually elevated prices for the 2026-29 time frame, a result of the East zone’s transition into a demand hub. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what is driving prices to historic premiums — and why they aren’t likely to become the new normal.