Week 37: September 9, 2024 -- September 15, 2024

Locator: 48587TOPSTORIES. 

Top story: 

• woman of color defeats Trump in debate
• national polls: neck and neck
• where "it" will be decided: Pennsylvania
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Mideast: same ol', same ol'.
  
• Ukraine: same ol', same ol'.

Top international energy story:

• WTI: struggles; settles below $70.
  

Top national non-energy story:

• CNBC can't quit talking about a rate cut, risk of inflation; gets tedious.
• Fed rate cut: 25 basis points (75% chance); 50 basis points (25%)
  

Top national energy story:

• WTI dropped to as low as $66
  

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

The market in a nutshell: At the close --

Only One New Permit Today -- September 13, 2024

Locator: 48586B.  

WTI: $68.65.

Active rigs: 39.

One new permit, today:

• 41136, loc, Hunt Oil, Alexandria 161-100-17-5H-3, SESW 17-161-100, sections 5 / 8 / 17 - 161-100; Alexandria, Divide County

Powder River Basin Play In Converse County, Wyoming, Blocked By Federal Judge -- September 13, 2024

Locator: 48585PRB. 

Converse County, Wyoming -- The Powder River Basin play is tracked here. 

At that site, note:

September 16, 2018: The U.S. Bureau of Land Management has given final approval of the environmental impact statement on a 3,500-gas well project proposed by Jonah Energy in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin. 

Now, today, it is being reported that a 5,000 well project within a 1.5-million-acre play in Converse County, Wyoming, previously approved by BLM, has been blocked by a federal judge on environmental concerns.

Link here. 

The agency [the BLM] had approved developing up to 5,000 new oil and natural gas wells within a 1.5 million-acre area in Converse County, Wyoming, over a decade. 

The project is backed by energy companies including Devon Energy and Continental Resources. 

Two environmental groups, the Powder River Basin Council and Western Watersheds Project, sued in 2022, calling the project a "capstone" of efforts by the Trump administration to relieve the fossil fuel industry from environmental safeguards.

How Not To Invest -- September 13, 2024

Locator: 48583INVESTING.

On CNBC right now, a buy-side analyst is still bullish on Boeing. He says his company put Boeing on its "buy list" one year ago, and continues to recommend Boeing. In the past year, apparently, Boeing stock has lost 40% of its value. And now the machinists overwhelmingly voted against the new contract and are out on strike.

If this guy is still invested in Boeing .... oh, wow, what can I say?

It seems there must be a better way to invest than ... well, whatever he's doing. 

I was going to write more but I don't even know where to begin. 

I guess I would think along these lines if I wanted to still remain bullish on Boeing. I would play "would I rather" while waiting:

• pencil in the amount of cash I would want to invest in Boeing as my starting position;
• then, pick an equity (alt A) other than Boeing, and ask would I rather, at this point in time, with a six-month time frame would I like to put that cash into Boeing or in "alt A."
• then, whether it's Boeing or "alt A" play the game again, this time against "alt B.
• then, repeat.
• repeat six times.
• following the sixth iteration, put that penciled-in cash to the equity that is "still standing."
• Then, follow the Boeing story closely and play the game again every six months.

The biggest problem I have with starting a position in Boeing now or continuing to hold Boeing now is this: it's not as if one's only choice in the equity market is Boeing. There must be a ton of companies that are "in trouble" but have incredible potential. It seems there must be some alternatives to Boeing that meed all the criteria for holding Boeing now, but are better alternatives. 

Wow, I can think of a hundred alternatives to Boeing, and all of them pay a dividend while waiting.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• This is not an investing site.
• I have no formal training or education in anything financial.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

X-HQ Moves To Texas Today -- Flashback -- Apple's MacPro Assembled In Austin, Texas -- September 13, 2024

Locator: 48582TEXAS.

See also Forbes.

Other than add more to one of Sophia's positions in tech positions, the most interesting thing I did all morning was scroll through the companies relocating to Texas. This is an incredible list; absolutely amazing.

I was reminded to do that when CNBC reminded us today is the day that Elon Musk is moving twitter headquarters (X-HQ) from San Francisco to Texas. Wow. 

Previous announcement: SpaceX headquarters will be moved from Hawthorne, California, to Starbase at Boca Chica Beach, not far from Brownsville, Texas.

Among all the moves, the most "egregious" was that announced by Allegheny. The entire C-suite will move to Texas but all other employees and operations will remain in Pennsylvania.

FLASHBACK. In the process of reviewing these relocations, I was reminded of this which I had completely forgotten or completely missed, link here:

From the Forbes article linked above: 

A seismic shift is taking place in corporate America as even more companies announce plans to relocate from blue states to more business-friendly jurisdictions like Texas.

Last week [July, 2024], Elon Musk announced he would be moving the headquarters of two of his companies, X and SpaceX, from California to Texas. The “final straw,” according to Musk, was a new California law that blocks schools from notifying families if students change their gender identity.

But the underlying reasons for this ongoing migration go far deeper than one bad law.

The Great Corporate Migration Simply put, high living costs and operating costs in select metro areas are prompting companies to seek greener pastures elsewhere.

A staggering 465 headquarters have moved since 2018, with Texas welcoming the most at 209 relocations, according to commercial real estate firm CBRE (which itself moved from Los Angeles to Dallas in 2020).

By contrast, 79 companies left California’s Bay Area over the same period, 50 departed from Los Angeles and 21 moved away from New York City.

California’s losses are Texas’s gains. Between 2019 and 2022, the Golden State lost nearly $80 billion in tax revenue as residents fled high living costs and burdensome regulations, while Texas gained $31 billion (and Florida a whopping $116 billion). In 2022 alone, California lost about three times as much income to other states as it did in 2019.

Great graphic:

Cramer's First Hour, Part 3 -- Friday The Thirteenth, September, 2024

Locator: 48581CRAMER. 

WOW, WOW, WOW! WTI just hit $70.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Gold hits record high.

China: still in deep trouble.

Ticker to watch today: AAPL.

Oracle: first story, of course. Up $10 pre-market; up over 6%.

Too many story lines: link here. The Europeans must really, really like bureaucracies.

Sell-off of tech could be over. 

Apple iPhone 16 go one sale today; deliveries one week from today, and in stores next week. 

Uber: will have a huge day. Will make Josh happy. Josh Brown, the buy-side analyst.

Boeing; for the archives, machinists on strike. First time since 2008. Looking for 40% increase in pay (minimum) and return of defined pension plan. 

BRK: not having a particularly good week.

Personal investing: Sophia continued to add to her tech position.

*****************************
The Book Page

For those interested in this genre, highly recommend Geniuses At War: Bletchley Park Colossus, And The Dawn Of The Digital Age, David A. Price, c. 2021. "Riveting" -- Walter Isaacson. Agree. 

Every page with an interesting anecdote. Exhibit A:

Italian naval Enigma was cracked in September 1940 by a nineteen-year-old assistant cryptographer, Mavis Lever. The daughter of a postal worker and a seamstress, she had been at University College London studying German Romantic poets when the university evacuated to Wales at the outbreak of war.

"I thought I ought ot do something better for the war effort than reading German poets in WAles," she said later. "After all, German poets would soon be above us in bombers."

She thought at first of training to be a nurse but an acquaintance steered her to the Foreign Office, where she might be able to use her German skill; from there, she was sent to Bletchley Park. She knew nothing about codebreaking when she started. As it turned out, she liked the work, though she was annoyed by the widespread and freely voiced assumption that her boss, Knox, had hired because she was very pretty.

Dillwyn Knox was a veteran GC&CS [Bletchley Park] codebreaker. At a two-day meeting in July, 1939, in the early days of all of this, Knox was among the first to learn that the Poles had been reading German military Enigma messages for most of the past half-dozen years.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 2 -- Friday The Thirteenth, September, 2024

Locator: 48580CRAMER. 

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC. 

Most exciting news for air travelers: United Airlines to offer free Wi-Fi using SpaceX's Starlink. Other airlines will have to follow. Link here.

Sahm rule: "Sahm rule" creator Claudia Sahm says we're not in a recession. Speaks volumes about the "new" economists. Chief Economist New Century Advisors, former Fed economist. When asked directly: 50 or 25? Without hesitating, "absolutely 50." Fed rate cut. Employment numbers don't look comforting. Wow, she is really adamant about a 50-basis-point cut in the Fed rate. 

Exit, stage right: Elon Musk moves twitter headquarters (XHQ) out of San Francisco today -- moving to Texas.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- Friday The Thirteenth, September, 2024

Locator: 48579CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC. 

Oracle:

Jeep: how could this happen in the first place? Link here. With all the new Jeeps in our neighborhood I never saw this -- the Jeep sales debacle -- coming.

D3K2:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Two CLR Thorp Federal Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- September 13, 2024

Locator: 48578B.

Top story: on CNBC at 6:04 a.m. -- ORACLE!

US equities market: if it's a good day, we can thank China.  

Deflating: another green bubble.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.74. Continues to rise, to climb the wall of worry, despite the fact that the hurricane was a non-story.

Sunday, September 15, 2024: 34 for the month; 162 for the quarter, 486 for the year
40356, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 2-28H,

Saturday, September 14, 2024: 33 for the month; 161 for the quarter, 485 for the year
40221, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 1-28HSL,

Friday, September 13, 2024: 32 for the month; 160 for the quarter, 484 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: carbon-free power needs could bring Palisades Nuclear Plant, Michigan, back on online.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is preparing to oversee a restart of a shuttered nuclear power plant for the first time — the Palisades Nuclear Plant in Michigan. Other reactors have successfully restarted after stretches of inactivity but Palisades was in the process of being decommissioned and no longer has its operating license, so it faces a complicated — and unprecedented — path forward, helped in large part by a $1.52 billion conditional loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss what it will take to restart the Palisades plant, which could provide carbon-free electricity for 800,000 homes.

Electricity rates by state: link here.

• North Dakota: 14 cents
• Texas: 15 cents
• Michigan: 20 cents

The CLR Thorp Federal Wells

Locator: 48579THORP.

The wells:

• 40356, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 1-28H, t--; first month, 11,613 bbls runs;
• 40221, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 1-28HSL, t--; first month, 34,664 bbls runs;
• 38526, drl/A, CLR, Thorp Federal 9-28HSL1, Little Knife, t2/23; cum 217K 7/24;
• 38518, drl/A, CLR, Thorp Federal 8-28H, Little Knife, t2/23; cum 266K 7/24;
• 38517, drl/A, CLR, Thorp Federal 7-28H1, Little Knife, t2/23; cum 291K 7/24;
• 38516, drl/A, CLR, Thorp Federal 6-28H, Little Knife, t2/23; cum 369K 7/24;
• 38515, drl/A, CLR, Thorp Federal 5-28H1, Little Knife, t2/23; cum 179K 7/24;
• 38514, drl/A, CLR, Thorp Federal 4-28H, Little Knife, t2/23; cum 248K 7/24;
• 38513, drl/A, CLR, Thorp Federal 3-28H1, Little Knife, t2/23; cum 193K 7/24;

The map:

The Lede -- Friday The Thirteenth -- September, 2024

Locator: 48577ARCHIVES.

Keystone XL pipeline: biggest loser? Mexico. Amazing. More dots connect. Peter Zeihan.

To add insult to injury, Mexico's preexisting refineries were designed to process Mexico’s own heavy, sour crude, not the light, sweet stuff coming from the US. So, even if the US wanted to send some crude Mexico’s way, it would be futile. If Mexico continues down this path, they'll be forced to import refined US oil or rely on unstable regions for crude that matches their refineries’ needs. Either way, this dependency would cause major economic and political challenges.

College scene: highest-paid graduates.

Beyond the Ivies, colleges and universities with robust STEM programs finished strong: MIT claimed the top spot on Payscale’s ranking, The United States Naval Academy landed third, Harvey Mudd College fourth and the California Institute of Technology 13th. Stanford: 6th.

Students who choose to study science, engineering and mathematics generally outearn those who study liberal arts after graduation. Petroleum engineering is the highest-paying major overall, with graduates in that field earning an average $212,000 after working for 10 or more years.

Off-shore wind: link here.

The small print:

Accidents involving blades made by GE Vernova have delayed projects off the coasts of Massachusetts and England and could imperil climate goals.

GE Vernova a headline story yesterday on CNBC:

Perhaps The Most Interesting Story Yesterday -- And It Went By Without Anyone Seeming To Notice -- September 13, 2024

Locator: 48578BRK.

"If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?"

Link here.

The Taylor Swift Effect -- Or, The Childless Cat Lady's Effect -- Either Way ..... Friday The 13th, September, 2024

Locator: 48563POLITICS.

Updates

September 13, 2024:

CBS News, link here:

Reuters poll: OMG! Most recent poll shows Harris, 47%, to Trump's 42%. Link here.

What MAGA folks aren't saying: Trump just loss debate --

• a woman
• a woman of color
• a woman of color who was said to be unable to talk in coherent sentences
• no wonder Trump said he's done with debating her
• most interesting: no one seems to care; no one is calling for another debate.

Original Post

JD Vance:

Childless cat lady:

Grammarly? Nope -- Apple Intelligence -- September 12, 2024

Locator: 48576APPLE.

With the new iPhone 16 you won't need Grammarly.  Grammarly-equivalent is now "part" of iPhone 16's Apple Intelligence. 

So, whatever your iPhone 16 costs you, knock of $140 if you had planned to pay for Grammarly -- and that's an annual fee. Every year, $140 for Grammarly. Wow. 

Comes "free" with the new iPhone 16 and every iPhone after that.

Tell me again, Apple iPhones are too expensive. We haven't even begun to discuss the camera. I'm saving that for last. LOL.