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Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Indian Affairs -- Going Down A Rabbit Hole -- Okie From Muskogee -- September 11, 2024

Locator: 48565INDIANAFFAIRS.

Yesterday I spent quite a bit of time going down this rabbit hole: it began here

It will take you to wiki; and, specifically, McGirt v. Oklahoma

I had no idea where the story would take me, but then coincidentally, it ended here:


It was a rabbit hole worth going down. Learned a lot.

More Oracle -- September 11, 2024

Locator: 48564TECH.

Updates

September 11, 2024, link here:

September 11, 2024, link here:

Original Post

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A Musical Interlude

Link here.


Link here.

From Twitter Tonight -- This Did Not Age Well -- Presidential Politics -- September 11, 2024

Locator: 48563POLITICS.

Updates

September 13, 2024:

CBS News, link here:

Reuters poll: OMG! Most recent poll shows Harris, 47%, to Trump's 42%. Link here.

What MAGA folks aren't saying: Trump just loss debate --

  • a woman
  • a woman of color
  • a woman of color who was said to be unable to talk in coherent sentences
  • no wonder Trump said he's done with debating her
  • most interesting: no one seems to care; no one is calling for another debate.

Original Post

JD Vance:

Childless cat lady:

Hess Will Report Some Nice Ron Viall Wells In Wheelock -- September 11, 2024

Locator: 48562B.

One of several Ron Viall wells in Wheelock:

  • 38686, drl/A, Hess, GO-Ron Viall-156-98-2513H-1, Wheelock, t2/23; cum 271K 724;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20243170567008128061851018363147
BAKKEN6-20242952375250105391640116279122
BAKKEN5-202425653065931386633550307162834
BAKKEN4-20243094479513185974374743479268
BAKKEN3-2024311154811455220444674946410339
BAKKEN2-2024291027610210192162722026626594
BAKKEN1-20242070367085135342653026168362
BAKKEN12-2023311410314104240775081550479336
BAKKEN11-2023301366813642193273481733928889
BAKKEN10-2023311336013349201253387633414462
BAKKEN9-2023241204812039214622652926170359
BAKKEN8-2023241484514909211203399633543453
BAKKEN7-2023311820618256268164067640342334
BAKKEN6-2023301868318734294993869437996698
BAKKEN5-20233130720305574920069841688381003
BAKKEN4-2023161478414815239602947428516958
BAKKEN3-20231312176122881898522197203091888
BAKKEN2-20232850602503616332942361410981263
BAKKEN1-20231844833132477468688

No New Permits; Five Permits Renewed -- September 11, 2024

Locator: 48561B.

NVDA:

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.31.

Active rigs: 39.

No new permits.

Five permits renewed:

  • Formentera Operations: three FLXS permits, one Tafelmeyer permit, and one Adeline permit.

Apple A18 -- The New iPhone -- The iPhone 16 -- September 11, 2024

Locator: 48560CHIPS.

Before we start, I wonder if any folks caught this? I have not yet seen this reported anywhere. What was the most recent Apple event called, the Apple event on Monday, September 9, 2024

Answer: Glowtime.

Now, what's the ticker symbol for Corning? Answer: GLW.  Now, I know GLW is not a perfect match for Glowtime .... but Glowtime / GLW certainly "rhyme." 

So, any connection? A little history from wiki:

Now, MacRumors, link here:


Note: the ceramic infused glass used by Apple appears to be an Apple exclusive. Nothing but the best when it comes to Apple. And it won't be mentioned by any analyst. LOL.  

Maybe it's nothing. But, wow, so many dots connected, going all the way back to Steve Jobs and his partnering with Corning. 

*****************************
Now Back To The Chip Story

From India Today, linked below:


From MacRumors, September 10, 2024:


Apple website:

  • iPhone 16: starts at $799.
  • iPhone 16 Pro: starts at $999.

Transistor count:

  • Apple's A18: 20 billion (last year's A17: 19 billion)
  • Intel's "Raptor Lake", CPU, laptop: 26 billion chip
  • Nvidia's GeForce 4090 RTX desktop GPU: 74 billion transistor chip

From Thinglabs (linked below):


On the blog:

Apple's A18 chip for the iPhone 16, several links:

From the blog:

CPUs, GPUs, NPUs, and all that jazz; Apple's M4 is revolutionary, June 30, 2024.

Transistor count, wiki.
Apple A17, wiki.

Again, CHIPS

It appears wiki has not updated its transistor count with Apple A18. I'm not sure if Apple has officially released the transistor count. 

It should be noted that the "absolutely transistor count" no longer has as much "utility" as a metric as it did in the past. 

The Apple A17:

The Apple A18: 


Note: the A17 is said to have 19 billion transistors, but wiki does not note the number of transistors in the A18. One source states the A18 has 20 billion transistors but that could be an estimate, rounding 19 billion to 20 billion. 

Again, other metrics are now becoming more important that simply the number of transistors on a single chip.

From the MacWorld link above:


From Thinglabs above:

With the release of the iPhone 16 series Apple unveiled the A18 chip, which is the fastest and most Ai capable ever. But the real question is how the A18 stacks up versus the A17 Pro (the chip that powered the previous generation iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max lines). Both chips are powerful but excel in different areas, catering to varying user needs. 
The A18 and A18 Pro push the boundaries for those seeking ultimate performance and features, designed to to redefine smartphone performance and AI handling. The A18 delivers impressive gains for standard iPhone models, while the A18 Pro sets a new standard for speed, efficiency, and advanced features. This silicon rivalry ultimately benefits consumers by offering a range of powerful options to suit their needs and preferences.
Apple’s newest chips, the A18 and A17 Pro, bring significant upgrades to iPhone performance. Both chips use advanced 3nm architecture, but the A18 Pro offers key improvements over its predecessor.
The A18 Pro delivers 15% faster CPU performance and 20% faster graphics compared to the A17 Pro, while using less power. This means smoother gameplay and faster app launches for users of the latest iPhones. The A18 Pro also features an upgraded neural engine for AI tasks and improved video processing capabilities. These enhancements translate to real-world benefits for iPhone users. Tasks like photo editing, video rendering, and running complex apps should feel noticeably snappier on A18 Pro devices compared to those with the A17 Pro chip.

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- September 11, 2024

Locator: 48558EIA.

Link here.

Weekly EIA petroleum report:

  • in storage: 4% below five-year average -- unchanged for quite some time;
  • refiners: 92.8% -- same ol' same ol'
  • jet fuel supplied: down 2.3% y/y -- that's a surprise

Cramer's First Hour -- Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Locator: 48557CRAMER.

Moment of silence: 9/11.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC

Debate last night: it was noted that the country really hasn't had an "active" president for the past year or so, and we've gotten along just fine. In broad brush:

  • Bush II: 9/11 -- worst attack on US soil since Pearl Harbor; commander-in-chief AWOL; failed intel; botched response;
  • Obama: transformed healthcare
  • Trump: universally agreed -- botched response to Covid-19; SCOTUS appointees set back US women's reproductive rights after decades of work
  • Biden: country back on track after Covid-19

Housing: intergenerational wealth transfer. 

BRK: keeps selling BofA.

Pre-market: after the inflation data -- which came in as expected; no surprises. But the Dow plummets on the data.The data does not support a 50-basis point cut; the market sees a 25-basis point cut. It's a good report but perhaps not great for the market. I can't see the Fed getting to a full cut of 200 basis points by the end of the year.

Cramer's lead story: the banks. 

Investing: for folks paying attention --

  • it's not whether to buy tech today; it's which / what tech to buy today; Sophia has her picks 
    • will add to positions in two companies today
  • tech is rising today

Spectrum: that will be the next discussion with regard to tech. DOD will be the big loser.

WTI: up nicely today; up 2.3%. Trading at $67.27.

Gamestop: I would be surprised if this is not a big story today. At least for some. 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Intergenerational Wealth Transfer -- Keeping The Housing Market Going / Growing -- September 11, 2024

Locator: 48566ECONOMY.

Link here

An intergenerational transfer of wealth is in motion in America — and it will dwarf any of the past.

Of the 73 million baby boomers, the youngest are turning 60. The oldest boomers are nearing 80. Born in midcentury as U.S. birthrates surged in tandem with an enormous leap in prosperity after the Depression and World War II, boomers are now beginning to die in larger numbers, along with Americans over 80.

Most will leave behind thousands of dollars, a home or not much at all. Others are leaving their heirs hundreds of thousands, or millions, or billions of dollars in various assets.


This is what keeps the housing market going.

From the linked article:
In 1989, total family wealth in the United States was about $38 trillion, adjusted for inflation. By 2022, that wealth had more than tripled, reaching $140 trillion. Of the $84 trillion projected to be passed down from older Americans to millennial and Gen X heirs through 2045, $16 trillion will be transferred within the next decade.

Oracle -- Chips -- The Excitement Continues -- September 11, 2024

Locator: 48565ORACLE.

Updates

September 11, 2024, link here:

Original Post

Electromagnetic Spectrum -- The USAF -- September 11, 2024

Locator: 48564SPECTRUM.

5G --> 6G. 

Spectrum: that will be the next discussion with regard to tech. DOD will be the big loser.

A brief explainer, electromagnetic spectrum, wiki

Military update. Is "weather" at risk?

The USAF 350th!

Hump Day -- A Petro-Hunt Zabolotny Well Comes Off Confidential List Today -- September 11, 2024

Locator: 48563B.

GDPNow, link here. This is interesting.

Politics: Drudge banner as good as it gets.

Debate: I was really looking forward to the debate. It might have been the first debate -- ever -- that I actually wanted to see. 

I watched one minute of Kamala's introductory statement -- about her family history -- and turned off the iPad. Barron's says that the first four minutes determined the outcome of the debate. I checked back in at about the one-hour mark; Trump was speaking -- talking about a 20% sales tax or something to that effect. After less than a minute I turned off the iPad again. It will be interesting to see the "Nielsen" numbers today.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.23.

Thursday, September 12, 2024: 32 for the month; 160 for the quarter, 484 for the year
39932
, conf, Hess, RS-Feldman-156-92-1423H-3,
39931
, conf, Hess, RS-Juma-156-92-1131H-4,

Wednesday, September 11, 2024: 30 for the month; 158 for the quarter, 482 for the year
40515
, conf, CLR, Hartman 12-28H,
40325
, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-9C-4-3H,
40148, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 1402-3BH,

RBN Energy: navigating the surplus in US LPG and ethane production.

Since 2011, U.S. natural gas liquids (NGL) production has more than tripled, while domestic demand has grown only modestly. Consequently, the only way NGL markets could balance was a dramatic increase in exports. Today, over 70% of U.S. propane production is exported, with the majority going to overseas markets, while other NGLs see varying export levels: 40% for butanes, 25% for natural gasoline, and 18% for ethane. Although U.S. NGL production growth is slowing, we still project an increase of 1.5 MMb/d over the next decade and a half, with 85% of that growth coming from the Permian Basin. As U.S. ethane and LPG production continues to rise, nearly all the export growth is expected to head to the Asia/Pacific region, with a significant portion going to one country: China. But is this outlook for U.S. NGLs realistic? And do we have adequate infrastructure — ranging from gathering systems to processing plants and fractionators, and from export terminals to the right kind of ships — to handle all of these volumes? In one of his hit tunes, Toby Keith clearly identified the problem for us: “Where You Gonna Go? And What Ya Gonna Do When You Get There?” These are key NGL market themes that we'll be exploring at our upcoming NACON conference on October 24 at the Royal Sonesta Hotel in Houston and that we’ll introduce in today’s RBN blog.