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Thursday, September 5, 2024

Murfin Drilling Company -- First Permit In North Dakota -- September 5, 2024

Locator: 48540B.

The permit:

  • 41105, loc, Murfin Drilling Company, Steffan 1-30H, Willmen oil field,


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American Exceptionalism -- September 5, 2024

Locator: 48539CHIPS.

Link here.

Too bad this won't get wider exposure: over at Bloomberg. 

We can start with the CHIPS Act.

*****************************
And Then This

We'll Get A Chance To See
If More Deficit Spending
Really Leads To More Inflation

Link here.

****************************
A Musical Interlude

Link here.

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Trending Toward Another Billion -- BRK Sells Another $760 Million Bank Of America Shares -- September 5, 2024

Locator: 48538B.

Link here.


Link here.


$300 billion is close to a third of a trillion. Maybe he does think he can take it with him. LOL.
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Updating Oasis / QEP MHA Wells In Van Hook -- One Well Trending Toward 800K Bbls Crude Oil -- September 5, 2024

Locator: 48538B.

Two earlier wells:

  • 35453, 2,518, Oasis, MHA 7-27-26H-150-92, Van Hook, t7/20; cum 459K 7/24;
  • 35455, 681, Oasis, MHA 7-29-30H-150-92, Van Hook t7/20; cum 760K 7/24;

Initial production profile:

BAKKEN4-2021214211519957698486212
BAKKEN3-20212727632280561680725526221433383
BAKKEN2-20212830811307041970124549213383211
BAKKEN1-20213132315325932357124968216843284
BAKKEN12-20203134080340322724827179224504729
BAKKEN11-20203035178353563167526134210005134
BAKKEN10-20203138179392743461026523231763347
BAKKEN9-202028390133753750154291561534713809
BAKKEN8-20203153780541025354836764302116553
BAKKEN7-20201941144403187585729158211268032
BAKKEN6-20200000000

The following wells came off confidential list October 1, 2021. Production updated.

Friday, October 1, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 228 for the year:

  • 35456, con-->drl/A, Oasis/QEP, MHA 5-29-30H-150-92, Van Hook, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 302K 4/22; see production profile here; cum 499K 7/24;
  • 35454, conf-->drl/A, Oasis/QEP, MHA 5-27-26H-150-92, Van Hook, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 199K 4/22; cum 301K 7/24;
  • 35451, conf-->loc/A, Oasis/QEP, MHA 4-29-30H-150-92, Van Hook, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 342K 4/22; cum 561K 7/24;
  • 35449, conf-->loc/A, Oasis/QEP, MHA 4-27-26H-150-92, Van Hook, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 239K 4/22; cum 387K 7/24;

 Production profile for #35451: 

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2024318343832715782773361261601
BAKKEN6-202430806280391288263385560773
BAKKEN5-202431755076215444553942701265
BAKKEN4-202430936392866758644150861349
BAKKEN3-202417603359721606561435328807
BAKKEN2-20240000000
BAKKEN1-202400150000
BAKKEN12-2023514091466240912631059139
BAKKEN11-202330105301050715091849728005443
BAKKEN10-20231570147028121134350224179
BAKKEN9-2023197703773612767624135232596
BAKKEN8-20233113081130652008512513108741328
BAKKEN7-20233111240112092215595768800404
BAKKEN6-20231138563890673714551177169
BAKKEN5-202331128631287716260109249993561
BAKKEN4-2023301367513641204971217010878752
BAKKEN3-202328109451088214529103959173764
BAKKEN2-20230000000
BAKKEN1-20230000000
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-2022721312256371630181996808
BAKKEN10-2022301184711673826521525190102070
BAKKEN9-2022301499815058870125501219633027
BAKKEN8-202230205662078012406221161092810588
BAKKEN7-20223121247211081240525057176126750
BAKKEN6-20223016309160391483014909127801435
BAKKEN5-2022310978592429105288
BAKKEN4-20222816175161651174416479125683352
BAKKEN3-20223121024210381470522987191483112
BAKKEN2-20222821143210861488621695189552001
BAKKEN1-20223124770247991706125041177786411
BAKKEN12-20213127954277272024525647173657265
BAKKEN11-20213029054292722529527733176308917
BAKKEN10-20213134868344031668367731352023129
BAKKEN9-20213032121322843692436172428031892
BAKKEN8-20212319007188271758917843103707471
BAKKEN7-20213130947309292801925404158769528
BAKKEN6-20213041665416593888131744234408304
BAKKEN5-202124435844343634852359472010015760

In addition to the above wells, there are another six MHA wells sited in this same section on a single MHA pad to the south. The wells, drilled in early 2023, similar production profiles:
  • 35466, 
  • 35467, 
  • 35464, 
  • 35473, 
  • 35472, loc/A, Oasis MHA 6-29-30H-150-92, Van Hook, t3/23; cum 322K 7/23;
  • 35470,

More production: 

  • 35472, loc/A, Oasis MHA 6-29-30H-150-92, Van Hook, t3/23; cum 322K 7/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20243113351133137177791862781640
BAKKEN6-2024291171411704983075646641923
BAKKEN5-202431135841367412456936272222140
BAKKEN4-202430143011427415827979977452054
BAKKEN3-20243118090181722265114565126501915
BAKKEN2-20242917016170021854212805103962409
BAKKEN1-20242918441185171658213703109922711
BAKKEN12-20233131742315803371926599235063093
BAKKEN11-20232024418242521948815617530510312
BAKKEN10-2023001380000
BAKKEN9-202329168571689320060830947843525
BAKKEN8-202331236252356225095992288421080
BAKKEN7-20232715609155651890082847921363
BAKKEN6-2023852725349742811921042150
BAKKEN5-2023252224422355211671290212216686
BAKKEN4-20233035756357302750922461210091452
BAKKEN3-20233139563393342871219686181721514
BAKKEN2-20230000000
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Without Comment -- September 5, 2024

Locator: 48537ARCHIVES.

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Seven New Permits; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 5, 2024

Locator: 48536B.

WTI: $69.15.

Active rigs: 37.

Seven new permits, #41099 - #41105, inclusive:

  • Operators: Enerplus (4); CLR; Medora Minerals, Murfin Drilling
  • Fields: Little Knife (Dunn County); West Capa (Williams); Davis Creek (Billings); and, Willmen (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • Murfin Drilling has a permit for a Steffan well, lot 1, section 30-142-97, 
      • to be sited 333 FNL and 343 FWL;
    • Medora Minerals has a permit for a Davis Creek well, NENE 28-139-100, 
      • to be sited 300 FNL and 820 FEL;
    • CLR has a permit for Christiana well, NWNW 17-154-96, 
      • to be sited 295 FNL and 385 FWL;
    • Enerplus has permits for three more Hamilton wells and another Lind well, lot 4, section 2-145-97; 
      • to be sited between 471 FNL and 545 FNL and between 1025 FWL and 929 FWL;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 40360, 1,052, Blueberry 2918-04H,
  • 40448, 524, EOG, Blueberry 2918-05H,
at No comments:

Dollar General -- What A Week -- September 5, 2024

Locator: 48535INV.

Last week, September 2, 2024, on the blog:

Dollar General: consumers are "strapped," feeling the pain. Link here. But they can afford $100,000 EVs.  

Dollar General was in the news again yesterday. From CNN: dollar stores are struggling; blame Walmart. 

Exactly my thoughts; I never thought this had anything to do with the "strapped" consumer. Folks -- at all income levels -- are simply finding better value with Walmrt, particularly home delivery, something dollar stores (probably) don't have.

CNN still blames the "strapped consumer" / inflation for the problem facing dollar stores.

One needs to read the CNN article closely to really understand what's going on. It's not the "strapped consumer."

Flashback:

Where are we today, with the reset?

Great, great example for agile traders, which I am not. For those agile enough, one could have bought at $80 and then sold quickly at $92 -- a quick 15% short-term gain. Wow.

But now, back to $80. 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
at No comments:

Broadcom -- AVGO -- Beat, Beat, Shares Fall -- September 5, 2024

Locator: 48534AVGO.

CNBC anchors suggest AVGO will trade up / down as much as 7% after number reported.

Let's see the trading of AVGO after the market close.

At the close before the announcement: up slightly.

Expectations:

  • EPS: $1.20
  • Revenue: $12.97 billion

Minute by minute (C: close; A: announcement):

  • At C + 5.00 -- up $1.58 / up 1.03%
  • At C + 13.00 -- up 39 cents / up 0.3%
  • At A -- down $6 / down 5%
  • At A +5.00 -- down $5 / down 3%
  • At A + one hour -- down $11 / down 7%

Actual vs expectations:

  • EPS: beat; $1.24 vs $1.20
  • revenue: beat; $13.07 billion vs $12.97 billion

Announces quarterly dividend of 53 cents / share.

Prior to the 10 - 1 split, the quarterly dividend was $5.25. Now, first dividend after the 10 - 1 split, 53 cents.

at No comments:

Saudi Arabia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- September 5, 2024

Locator: 48533SAUDI.

Link here.

Link here.

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Cramer's First Hour -- September 5, 2024

Locator: 48532CRAMER.

NFL: season opener tonight! 

AVGO: Broadcom reports after market closes today. Whoo-hoo!

Cramer's first hour: a mix of fact, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.   

Personal investing: Sophia added to her NVDA (Nvidia) position this a.m. The third month of each quarter is a big quarter for Sophia with regard to investing. She will also be buying a very, very, very small amount of silver. Just for fun, not for investment. Nvidia, two green lights yesterday:

  • no subpoena! LOL;
  • Nancy Pelosi keeps buying! LOL.

VP Harris proposed tax increases: will affect 0.5% of American taxpayers. Annual income minimum to be affected: $1 million. That's annual income, not net worth. Link here.

From Beth, link here:


Liz: posts a gazillion charts but very little actionable information for the small retail investor. Twitter so much better.

Inflation: the last piece of the puzzle is now in place -- wage inflation is way down. Corroborates Fed's decision to focus on jobs now, not inflation. But apparently the newest jobs data not exciting Wall Street. Having said that, the numbers suggest a productivity boom in sight or already in place -- Steve Liesman. Losing vacancies but not losing jobs: ratio is now about 1:1. But as economy weakens, we'll start seeing loss in jobs. Downside risk in labor market. Still likely: 25 bp.

Immigration: huge advantage for US. Without question. Even "illegal immigration" results in companies paying into social security. But US immigration is much bigger than that. Previously posted. So, as immigration czar, she must have done a pretty good job. Opening the border temporarily but blocking any path to citizenship for illegal immigrants seems to be working.

NVDA: another down day; Cramer started his hour with this discussion.

Jeep: a disaster. Ford: a great month.

***********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

at No comments:

Eight Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over Next Two Days -- September 5, 2024

Locator: 48539B.

WTI: $69.38.

Friday, September 6, 2024: 18 for the month; 146 for the quarter, 470 for the year
40480, conf, CLR, Roadrunner 6-15H,
39543, conf, Grayson Mill Knight 35-26F 7TFH,
39542, conf, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26F 6H,
39256, conf, Hess, SC-4WX-LW-153-98-3130H-1,
37579, conf, BR, Croff 2B MTFH -- Croff wells are tracked here.

Thursday, September 5, 2024: 13 for the month; 141 for the quarter, 465 for the year
40479, conf,  CLR, Roadrunner 5-15H,
40457, conf, Slawson, Nightmaker 6-17-8TFH,
37580, conf, BR, Mathistad 2A MTFH,

RBN Energy: weak pricing bleeds gas producers, dims reslts for others in overall profitable Q2.

One of the most compelling Greek myths is the story of Sisyphus, a man condemned by the gods to eternally push a giant boulder to the top of a mountain, only to have it crash back down to the valley just short of his goal. His plight is not a bad metaphor for the long-term historical trend of U.S. E&Ps, which neared pinnacles of financial stability in 1999, 2008, 2014 and 2020 — just before price drops sent returns plunging. Producers seem to have ducked out from under the curse recently, recording record post-pandemic profits in 2021 and 2022, then settling into an extended period of stable, elevated returns. However, deteriorating gas realizations have at least paused the boulder’s climb for all E&Ps and sent it rolling back for gas-weighted producers. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the overall positive returns for Oil-Weighted and Diversified producers and the more dramatic impact of low pricing on the Gas-Weighted E&Ps.

Recovering from a pandemic low of $16.55/bbl in April 2020, the WTI monthly oil price exceeded $70/bbl in June 2021 and has stayed above that mark ever since. Prices exceeded $100/bbl for five months in early 2022 before retreating but have generally stayed in the $75-$85/bbl range subsequently. As a result, average realizations, or upstream revenues per barrel of oil equivalent (boe), for 2021-Q2 2024 (gray line inside dashed black box in Figure 1 below) have exceeded every year between 2015-20. Profits have stabilized at a historically elevated level and every E&P in our Oil-Weighted and Diversified peer groups has reported a net pre-tax operating profit since Q2 2021. While earnings peaked in 2022, returns have been sufficient for producers to subsequently reward shareholders with substantial returns in the form of dividends and share buybacks.

at No comments: