Locator: 48505MUSIC.
At one time I had the CD, but that CD, like all the rest, has been gone for decades.
Friday, August 30, 2024
Best Mash-Up Ever? August 30, 2024
At one time I had the CD, but that CD, like all the rest, has been gone for decades.
Week 35: August 26, 2024 -- September 1, 2024
Locator: 48439TOPSTORIES.
Top story:
- Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway joins the $1-trillion club!
- Another incredible week in US equity markets
Top international non-energy story:
- Ukraine holds Russian territory; one of its six F-16's crashes;
- Gaza: Israel not backing down
Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
- Nvidia -- some say it stumbled -- LOL.
- Waiting for the Fed to cut rates -- September meeting
- back to a 25-bp cut?
- Trump / Harris: dead heat
- Trump now at odds with his VP running mate
- abortion rights: Trump now wants to extend abortion rights
- women working outside the home: Vance says "no way"; Trump: liked women as apprentices
- GM delays EV plans; joins F in delaying EV program
- US corporations stepping back from DEI
- colleges starting to see enrollment changes with end of affirmative action programs
Top national energy story:
- WTI recovers to $74 but still dismal
Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.
The market in a nutshell: At the close --
Five New Permits; Two Permits Renewed; One DUC Reported As Completed -- August 30, 2024
Locator: 48500B.
WTI: $73.55.
Active rigs: 41.
Five new permits, #41085 -- #41089, inclusive:
- Operators: Hess (4); Neset Consulting
- Fields: Blue Buttes (MKenzie); wildcat (McKenzie)
- Comments:
- Hess has permits for three BB-Sivertson wells and one BB-Federal well, SENE 20-151-95,
- all to be sited 1729 FNL at 416 FEL; 482 FEL; 515 FEL; and, 548 FEL;
- Neset Consulting has a permit for wildcat well, SENE 1-148-102, McKenzie County;
- to be sited 1059 FNL and 1220 FEL;
Two permits renewed:
- 33888, Silver Hill Energy, Blomquist, North Tioga, Burke County;
- 35407, Formentera Operations, Pacer, Ambrose, Divide County;
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
- 40488, 2,534, Grayson Mill, Wahus 12-1F XE 1H, McKenzie County;
Apple -- Nvidia -- OpenAI -- ARM -- Microsoft -- Several Billion Dollars -- August 30, 2024
Locator: 48499TECH.
There are two thoughts with regard to AI:
- it's all. hype
- we're in the middle of the biggest revolution since that "Industrial" one.
I'm in the second camp.
Big story today on CNBC: Apple OpenAI ARM.
Today: over at The WSJ -- link here.
From the linked article:
Apple AAPL and Nvidia are in talks to invest in OpenAI, a move that would strengthen their ties to a partner integral to their efforts in the artificial-intelligence race.
The investment would be part of a new OpenAI fundraising round that would value the ChatGPT maker above $100 billion.
The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that venture-capital firm Thrive Capital is leading the round, which will total several billion dollars, and Microsoft is also expected to participate. It couldn’t be learned how much Apple, Nvidia or Microsoft will invest into OpenAI this round.
To date, Microsoft has been the primary strategic investor in OpenAI. It owns a 49% share of the AI startup’s profits after investing $13 billion since 2019.
As the dominant global maker of chips that power ChatGPT and other AI models, Nvidia has long worked closely with OpenAI. Apple in June announced OpenAI as the first official partner for Apple Intelligence, its system for infusing AI features throughout its operating system. The new AI will feature an improved Siri voice assistant, text proofreading and creating custom emojis.
And, yes, for Apple, AI is all about creating more emojis.
Word search on the blog for Apple OpenAI ARM:
OpenAI: former head of NSA joins board. Who-hoo.
Cramer's First Hour -- August 30, 2024
Locator: 48498CRAMER.
Jim Cramer not "here" today. Today: David Faber and the "Brit guy" -- my least favorite, Wilfred Frost.
Wilfred Frost: Frost assumed his current role after stepping back from his anchor duties at CNBC in February 2022. Now, if only Brian Sullivan would "step back." And while they're at it, replace Phil.
Cramer's first hour: a mix of fact, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.
PCE: not only "in-line," but actually better than expected. The Fed: the 25 bp rate cut all but guaranteed. Whether it's 25 bp or 50 bp will be based on the employment numbers. Tea leaves suggest a cut of 25 bp. Begrudgingly by some governors. But they will go along to get along.
A reminder: historically, the months of August and September are the worst months of the year for investors who hope to pay more for shares.
Futures one-half hour prior to open:
At the open:
Tech: the CNBC crawler suggests tech will take off today. Intel (INTC) is the one to watch. If it does that I think it's going to do, it will be for the "wrong" reasons, but that doesn't matter for traders.
At the open:
- INTC: up 5%.
- NVDA: up 0.8%.
- AAPL: flat, but showing signs of life.
Dollar General:
- the amount of time the "Brit guy" is spending on Dollar General is insane;
- Dollar General is great for traders (up 3% since yesterday; absolutely predictable);
- this would have been a good stock for Warren Buffett to have bought yesterday
- but:
- Dollar General: a one-off;
- doesn't reflect US economy in the least; simply poor execution but CEO will suggest it's the "constrained consumer"
- the "constrained consumer" is moving to Walmart
Earnings:
GPD, 3Q24: tea leaves suggest an incredibly disappointing 1% for 3Q24, down from 3% in 2Q24. Everything suggests the Fed should move faster and more decisively, but they won't.
Dead: DEI.
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Disclaimer
Briefly
Reminder
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
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The Self-Study Page
Years ago I put together a self-study program on the US Civil War based on US Grant's memoirs. Target audience: middle school grandchildren. As far as I know, I never put it on-line; hard-copy / binder only.
Now, I'm ready to put together a similar self-study program on dinosaurs. This page is still in progress but would be the basis for a dinosaur self-study program. By the way, this whole subject will benefit greatly from AI but that's another story for another day.
A third self-study program: Greek dramatists. I have several sites on this subject, one example here.
I also have a "personal finance" page designed for high school students but no link; intended for two grandchildren right now.
Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? Guyana? Gulf Of Mexico? August 30, 2024
Locator: 48497PEAKOIL.
WTI: $75.96.
Sunday, September 1, 2024: 76 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 456 for the year
40477, conf, CLR, Clover 5-10H,
40460, conf, Slawson, SnakeEyes 6-20-29H,
Saturday, August 31, 2024: 74 for the month; 130 for the quarter, 454 for the year
None.
None,
RBN Energy: oil explorers plan for production growth in US Gulf of Mexico.
Crude oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is poised for a growth spurt through 2030 even as producers brace for a host of challenges, not least from forecasts that global oil demand will subside in the long term. But while the GOM’s supply accounts for a relatively small portion of total U.S. production, exploration and production companies (E&Ps) haven’t lost interest, in part because the Gulf offers key crude grades in high demand. In today’s RBN blog, we examine what is stoking the renewed interest in developing the GOM.
Nvidia Stumbles; Spotify Surges -- August 30, 2024
Locator: 48496INSANITY.
First the Nvidia earnings:
- 1Q25: look at those incredible margins and other data points, from left to right:
- largest revenue center, "Data Center": $22.6 billion; grew 23% q/q
- revenue: $26.08 billion; grew 18% q/q
- gross profit: $20.4 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 78% margin;
- operating profit: $16.9 billion; grew 3pp q/q; 65% margin;
- net profit: $14.9 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 75% margin;
Now, Spotfiy: link here (does not work on Firefox; works on Safari, Chrome). Spotify has never had a profitable year.
But their investors are doing great!
PCE -- August 30, 2024
Locator: 48495PCE.
up 3-tenths; better than expected (2-tenths)
prices came in as expected; everything with a 2-handle
consumer expenditures: just fine; up 0.4% vs 0.5%
this comes on top of a 3% GDP in 2Q24
market surges
incredible
everything as expected or better than expected
JPow and the Fed has "stuck the soft landing"
confirm that the inflation trend is as expected
"mission accomplished"
"time to take a victory lap"
"Fed will now focus on the other side of their mandate"
"the concern now: is the Fed acting too slowly to head off the downside risk?"
I'm getting tired of listening to "woe is us" Heritage Foundation.
there's probably a reason Brian Sullivan doesn't have his picture on the CNBC hall of fame.
Rick Santelli hasn't changed in all the years I've watched him
CNBC crawler: tech looks "to take off today"