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Thursday, August 22, 2024

Eight New Permits, Three Permits Renewed; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- August 22, 2024

Locator: 48488B.

WTI: $73.02.

Active rigs: 38.

Eight new permits, #41052 - #41058, inclusive; and, #41060

  • Operators: XTO (7); Enerplus
  • Fields: Hofflund (Williams); Mandaree (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • Enerplus has a permit for a Percheron well, NWNW 29-149-93; 
      • to be sited outside of spacing unit;
    • XTO has permits for seven HBU Shoshoni Federal wells, NWNW 15-154-95, 
      • to be sited 565 FNL, and between 350 FWL and 560 FWL, at 30-foot intervals;

Three permits renewed:

  • MRO: Cecelia USA in Reunion Bay; Riley USA in Antelope oil field; Bracklin USA in Antelope oil field;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 31768, 1,815, BR, Ivan 3-1-29UTFH, McKenzie County,
  • 31769, 1,815, BR, Ivan 4-1-29MBH, McKenzie County,
  • 31770, 645, BR, Ivan 5-1-29UTFH, McKenzie County,
  • 39868, 1,571, CLR, Micahlucas 3-5HSL, Dunn County,

Cramer's First Hour -- August 22, 2024

Locator: 48487JOBS.

Unemployment claims

  • for the week ending August 17, 2024
  • forecast: 230,000 -- exactly in-line with 232,000
  • market: all indices remain green
  • S&P: up 10 point

Cramer's first hour: a mix of fact, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Cramer's first hour: all about retailers this morning -- how fast Costco, Walmart and Target are lowering prices. Afraid of being accused of price gouging? LOL. Apparently the DNC wants the price of oil cut in half. Okay. I'm not sure how "half-price oil" is going to help the renewal energy sector. Wow.

SNOW: plummets -- down 14% in pre-market trading. Wow. Guidance boost isn't enough to impress Wall Street. But 14%? Wow.

Palantir: ?.

Personal investing: the other day I suggested that Sophia might start looking at Rivian. I suggested to her, "no hurry." So, if not Rivian, what? 

Presidential politics: the fact that insulin is not free to all type 1 diabetics is a true travesty in this country. 

BRK: current holdings. For the archives. For the moment, I've lost interest. How much cash does he have? There's a huge difference between $279 billion and $189 billion.


Re-posting? I don't know. I can't remember if I previously posted this. Link here.

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Disclaimer Briefly 

Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  

"X-Ramp Design" -- Multi-Lane Highway Expansion Northwest Of DFW -- August 22, 2024

Locator: 48488X.

Link here

This is of local interest due to proposed new highway construction on a multi-lane highway from DFW headed west to Trophy Club, north of Ft Worth. 

The "geographic" population center of the Dallas - Ft Worth metroplex is currently north of Dallas -- Plano, TX, and north, along I-35E, straight to the Oklahoma casinos.

By 2050, it is projected that the "geographic" population center of the DFW metroplex will be much farther west: northwest of Ft Worth -- where the Texas Motor Speedway and a Buc-ee's are located. And I-35W taking DFW to Oklahoma City and to points farther north.

The proposal: add another lane of traffic in each direction on the 8-mile stretch of SH 114 between Grapevine, TX, -- where we live -- and Trophy Club, one of the most interesting planned cities in the area. 

Link here.

In that article, "X-ramp design" was mentioned.

From this site

"Speeders" like the "octagon" or "diamond" ramp design.

The "X-ramp design" eliminates that option for fast drivers.

EVs -- The Wall Street Journal -- August 22, 2024

Locator: 48485EVS.

Updates

August 23, 2024: link here. Another write-down.

Original Post

Link here.

Canceling plans .... not just delaying development and/or production but canceling plans.

Ford Motor’s decision this week to kill a highly touted future electric vehicle is a sign that the industry’s pullback on EVs is deepening.
The Dearborn, Michigan, automaker said Wednesday it is canceling plans for an electric, family-hauler sport-utility vehicle that Chief Executive Jim Farley once touted as a “personalized bullet train.”
The move added to the drumbeat of news from carmakers of delayed or scrapped investments into EV models, factories and battery projects.
General Motors, Volkswagen, Mercedes and other automakers also have curbed their EV ambitions in recent months.
Taken together, the walked-back plans are an acknowledgment that the big investments outlined at the start of the decade got ahead of the consumer’s appetite for a full switch to EVs.
While surveys have shown that as many as half of U.S. consumers are open to buying an electric car, their relatively high prices and concerns over charger availability are dissuading many. EV sales in the U.S. and other regions are still growing, but the pace of the increase has decelerated sharply, despite many new models hitting the market.

Reminder from earlier this summer --

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Wind 

The debacle worsens

The Fed -- August 22, 2024

Locator: 48484ECON.

The Fed's Jeffrey Schmid: listening to Steve Liesman's interview with "the Fed's Schmid" reminded me of my post back in late June, 2024. Wow, no sympathy / empathy for folks struggling with "restrictive rates." Schmid is still not convinced cuts are necessary. I agree, but that's different. LOL. So, the question becomes, will JPow hold back on cuts if he doesn't get a unanimous vote?

Re-posting, from June 28, 2024:

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The Fed

The Fed, the "rate," the market, the talk: after lots and lots of discussion about the Fed and when will the Fed cut rates, and then today's numbers (the PCE) and then comments from various Fed committee members. the fog is starting to clear:

  • "they" may be talking about 2% inflation, but no one has really defined what components / what metric the Fed is really, really following (they have a "preferred" metric but that's just one of many); and,
  • no one has really, really defined how long the metric must remain at 2% for the Fed to cut.

If one has not yet noticed, the Fed's promise to cut the "Fed rate" is like watching Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown to kick, and furthering the analogy, if Lucy ever lets Charlie Brown kick the ball, he will find Lucy has moved the goal posts.

This is what's going on and how things will play out:

  • the Fed is not shooting for 2%; they're shooting for 1.5% inflation rate for several months and for indications that inflation has truly been tamed before they will make meaningful cuts;
    • to get to 1.5% inflation, we will have to see significant deflation (or is it called disinflation now?);
  • bottom line: the Fed is now targeting 1.5% not 2%;
  • the only way to get to 1.5% is to get through 2% and to see lots of pain;
  • the Fed hawks will want to see headlines of "pain" on the business pages of general interest magazines and other media outlets, not simply in the headlines of business magazines and other business media outlets.
  • the only "thing" now holding back that 2% target is rent, and maybe house prices, but in the big scheme of things, the only "thing" between now and 2% inflation is rent;
    • and the housing situation is so tight in the US, there is no chance landlords are going to lower rents, which is required if we're going to get to 2%.

So, again:

  • the Fed is targeting 1.5% inflation using undefined metrics and undefined time periods;
  • to get to 1.5%, lots of pain will need to be endured by the broad "middle class" -- however one wants to define that demographic
    • the lower class is relatively unaffected by inflation (and if they are, no one is listening to them anyway); and the wealthy are doing, doing very, very well with 5% in  money market funds to hedge against their investments in Nvidia.

And, oh by the way, while contemplating the above, no one has ever explained to me why the Fed targets a 2% inflation rate, and not 1% or 1.5% or 3% or 3.5%. So, even targeting 1.5% is incorrect. In fact, the Fed is looking for something else, but the press and Steve Liesman need a number, and 2% is the Fed's number, though in fact, it should be clear by now, it's really 1.5% if one needs a number. 

In fact, the Fed is looking for something else.

The Fed is looking for this: an undefined (for lack of a better word) "pain index."

The Fed's “pain index":

  • increasing unemployment rate, greater than 5% in U-3 unemployed;
  • the lack of "we are hiring signs" in the store windows on Main Street;
  • headlines in USA Today screaming the US economy is deteriorating;
  • a falling GDP but without going negative.
The Fed will get no credit if it lowers rates  in a Goldilocks environment, but if the economy starts to deteriorate and the pain index is obvious to all, then JPow can swoop in, cut rates, and look like the hero. And if timing works out, the Fed’s dithering could prove to be incredibly fortuitous for the next president, whomever (whoever?) that might be.

Thursday, August 22, 2024

Locator: 48483B.

Devon: link here


 Reminder:

Natural gas: link here.

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Back to the Bakken Morning Report

WTI: $72.28.

Friday, Augus 23, 2024: 57 for the month; 113 for the quarter, 439 for the year
40394, conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HUL,

Thursday, August 22, 2024: 56 for the month; 112 for the quarter, 438 for the year
40393, conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HD,
39709, conf, Hess, TI-Larson-157-95-2536H-3,
39708, conf, Hess, TI-Larson -157-95-2536H-2,
24362, conf, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26 4H,

RBN Energy: a new gas gathering and processing network in the Midland.

The Permian needs more gas gathering and processing capacity pronto to support the expansion of crude-oil-focused drilling, and one of the Permian’s last privately held midstream companies is stepping up in a big way with the buildout of an entirely new — and very expandable — network in the Midland Basin. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the impending startup of a new Brazos Midstream processing plant in Martin County, its plans for another Midland-area plant and the company’s already expansive midstream holdings in the Delaware Basin. As you’ll see, Brazos’s strategy echoes that of a well-known predecessor. 

The new gas-related infrastructure the Permian needs to support continued growth in crude oil production has been the topic of several blogs the past few months. Each hammered home the same theme, namely that Permian oil production can only grow as quickly as the ability of gas gathering systems, gas processing plants and takeaway pipelines to handle the vast volumes of associated gas that emerge from West Texas and southeastern New Mexico wells with the shale play’s “black gold.”