Friday -- End-Of-Day-Report -- August 9, 2024

Locator: 48374B.

Pet peeve: when the media calls a plane falling out of the sky a "crash."  

• from the article: videos posted online showed a plane spiraling as it dropped from the sky. 
• passenger planes don't simply drop out of the sky -- but yes, when they hit the ground, it's a crash, but the initial problem was not "crashing into terrain." 
• the initial problem was falling out of the sky -- cause unknown
• I would assume radio communications will explain a lot; I could be wrong; we'll see. In fact, "no" radio communications before suddenly falling out of the sky will also be quite noteworthy
• Reddit got it correct: "a plane with 62 passengers just fell..."
  

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Back to the Bakken

Bakken lease: reported earlier. --

Pride Energy Co. entered the single highest bid—$15.1 million—for a 273-acre lease under the Missouri River outside of Williston, ND, according to preliminary sales data released Aug. 7 by the agency. Companies that win a lease in federal oil sales are given 10 years to start drilling for oil and gas. BLM applies a 16.67% rate from production on the leases.

• $15.1 million / 273 acres = $55,311 / acre 
• 273 acres = slightly less than 1/2 section 
• sections 16 / 17 / 21 / 22 -- 153 - 93 "available; far west Sanish;
• then almost all of the river west of / and including section 24 / 25 -154 95; Hofflund, Grinnell
  
• speaks volumes about the work left to be done in the Bakken
  

WTI: $76.84.

Active rigs: 34.

Two new permits, #41013 - #41014, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR, Grayson Mill
• Fields: Crazy Man Creek (Williams); Ragged Butte (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has a permit for an L And E well, SESW 9-151-101, to be sited 484 FSL and 18181FWL;
• CLR has a permit for an Alfsvaag FIU well, NENE 31-153-99, to be sited 283 FNL and 477 FEL

Approved for re-entry:

• 22204, BR, Manchester 24-9MBH, SESW 9-147-97, Little Knife, Dunn County; bottom hole location, lot 2, section 4-147-97; spacing unit, section 4 / 7 - 147-97; back on confidential list; well file still available; drilled back in 2014; test, 1/16/2015; IP of 2,040 bbls; 30 stages; 3.50 million lbs proppant; 

One permit renewed;

• 37261, MRO, Sophia USA 11-14TFH, Dunn County, wildcat.

Three permits canceled:

• Slawson (2): two Nightmaker permits, Mountrail County;
• Neptune Operating: a CPEUSC Riley Anne permit, Williams County

A producing well (a DUC) reported to be completed:

• 40271, 1,053, CLR, Sloan 3-18HSL,

The Market -- Morning Trades -- August 9, 2024

Locator: 48373INV.

The Fed: dual mandate --

• current numbers / goals completely arbitrary:
• inflation rate target: 2%
• unemployment: no numerical goals
  
• after thirty years of investing and following things fairly closely, one could argue, better numbers / goals:
• inflation rate target: 3%
• unemployment: no numerical goals
  
• better goals
• inflation rate target: no numerical goals
• unemployment: no numerical goals

The Fed:

• most recent comments from some governors suggest there might not be a rate cut in September;
• we're still not seeing the pain JPow wants to see
• previously posted

CNBC: this morning -- 

• INTC: down 4% in early morning trading; analyst -- avoid, avoid, avoid
• CSCO: could announce second round of layoffs; could be bigger than the one earlier this year; announcement could be as early as Wednesday next week; but a lot happening in CSCO that might explain this; down 0.8% today.
  

• MPC: up 21% over past year.
• Stellantis: to cut 2,450 hourly positions; will end production of its Ram 1500 Classic truck model at a Detroit plant. It will be interesting to see how this relates to Stellantis' commitment to a low-cost EV.
  

***********************************
Disclaimer Briefly 

Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  

Others:

• AAPL: up slightly:
• OXY: down almost a percent'
• F: up 5% over past 5 days; back above $10
  
• BRK-B: up marginally;
• SCHB: up slightly; mostly flat;
• SCHG: up 0.3%;
• SCHD: down 0.3%;
• CHRD: down 2.4% over past 5 days;
• NOG: up 2.25% over past 5 days;
• CRWD: up 21% over past 5 days; predictable;
• the problem was "solved" within 24 hours
• only Delta Airlines in the news -- but it took upwards of five to six days to resolve issues
• American Airlines was back up and running within six hours? Needs to be fact-checked. 
  

Around the net

$55K / Acre In The Bakken? August 9, 2024

Locator: 48372B.

BLM - Bakken: link here and link here.

From first link: 

The Bureau of Land Management netted roughly $24 million from an oil and gas sale on public lands in North Dakota and Montana on Tuesday, over the protests of climate organizations.

The oil lease auction was the most lucrative the Biden administration has held in the region this year, but it still fell short of what some drillers wanted to see on the table. It was opposed by several prominent environmental groups who have called on President Joe Biden to end oil sales on public lands because of fossil fuels’ contribution to climate change.

The auction included more than 5,000 acres, with most parcels clustered in the prolific Bakken oil region. A handful of parcels were also offered for auction in northern and southern Montana.

From second link:

The US Bureau of Land Management netted $23.9 million in high bids from its Aug. 6 oil and gas sale on public lands largely in the Bakken oil region of North Dakota.

Ten companies submitted 264 bids on the 4,800 acres, about 87% of the total acreage offered in North Dakota and northern and southern Montana, BLM Montana/Dakota field office said.

Pride Energy Co. entered the single highest bid—$15.1 million—for a 273-acre lease under the Missouri River outside of Williston, ND, according to preliminary sales data released Aug. 7 by the agency. Companies that win a lease in federal oil sales are given 10 years to start drilling for oil and gas. BLM applies a 16.67% rate from production on the leases.

The auction was the most lucrative this year in the region, despite protests by environmental groups, who urged the Biden administration to curb oil and gas leasing on public lands because of fossil fuels’ contribution to climate change. BLM took in a total of $663.5 million in high bids in a similarly sized lease sale in the same region in April. 

Back of the proverbial envelope:

• $15.1 million / 273-acre lease: $55,000 / net mineral acre
• easily compares with what the Permian commands
• small mom-and-pop mineral owners in the Bakken are being offered $3,000 / net mineral acre

• $15.1 million / 273 acres = $55,311 / acre 
• 273 acres = slightly less than 1/2 section 
• sections 16 / 17 / 21 / 22 -- 153 - 93 "available; far west Sanish;
• then almost all of the river west of / and including section 24 / 25 -154 95; Hofflund, Grinnell
  
• speaks volumes about the work left to be done in the Bakken

****************************
More Bakken

WTI: $76.12.

Sunday, August 11, 2024: 22 for the month; 78 for the quarter, 404 for the year
None.

Saturday, August 10, 2024: 22 for the month; 78 for the quarter, 404 for the year
None.

Friday, August 9, 2024: 22 for the month; 78 for the quarter, 404 for the year
40375, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Stocke 6-4-9H,
39603, conf, Hess, BL-Iverson B-155-95-0807H-8,
39252, conf, Hess, SC-4WC-153-98-3130H-4,

RBN Energy: tight US octane supplies can play a role in summer gasoline price spikes.

Some U.S. refiners report lower-than-market gasoline profit margins in the summer, which are often attributed to summer volatility specifications. But that is not always the primary issue; rather, some refiners have trouble generating enough octane-barrels due to the strong demand during the summer months, which can help drive price spikes. In today’s RBN blog we explain why, with a focus on octane, the primary yardstick of gasoline performance, quality and price, and show how refiners use a PIANO analysis to optimize their production.

TGIF -- August 9, 2024

Locator: 48371ARCHIVES.

Trump: delusional as ever. Link here. Front page, top story. Puts the Fed on notice. "I'll be in charge. I'll run the Fed."

Personal investing: at the open, will be adding to positions in NVDA, AMD, TSM, and AAPL.

****************

Disclaimer Briefly 

Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  

******************************
Mideast

Mideast: let's start the countdown --

• Friday, August 2, 2024: nothing
• Saturday, August 3, 2024: nothing
• Sunday, August 4, 2204: folks said "tonight" would be the night; nothing
• Monday, August 5, 2024: Trump says "tonight" will be the night. Nothing.
• Tuesday, August 6, 2024: twitter devoid of any incident in the Mideast overnight.
• Wednesday, August 7, 2024: Egypt tells airlines to avoid Tehran airspace Thursday morning (tomorrow morning) -- posted at August 7, 2024, 8:22 p.m. CDT, from the Drudge Report
• President of Iran asks (begs?) Supreme Leader not to go to war.
• Thursday, August 8, 2024: nothing
• Friday, August 9, 2024: nothing. Iran says Hezbollah will have to go it alone
• Iran: now suggests it will go after those who assassinated the terrorist leaders; won't attack Israel
• consensus is Iran does not have the resources to attack Israel; "can't afford a war";
  
• F-22s arrive in the Mideast; roost at undisclosed location (Kuwait?); location / number not released
  
• wow, how I wish was still active duty -- thirty years with the F-15 -- never got old
  
• Saturday, August 10, 2024: pending
  

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AI: The Revolution

AI:

• there are two camps
• hyped -- a bubble
• not hyped -- not a bubble
• I'm in the second camp; and putting money to back up my position; again, see disclaimer.

Talking head on CNBC this a.m.

• big beneficiaries of AI: META, GOOG, AMZN
• META has been amazing with how it has incorporated AI
• folks may recall the Huang-Zuckerberg interview of just a few days ago
  
• also mentioned, almost as a stand-alone in the second tier: Duolingo

Recurrent story, link here;

• real money going after real projects;

Three tech links:

• incredible graphic; good, bad, indifferent -- absolutely amazing: NVDA vs INTC;
• TSMC: sales surge, Barron's;
• NVDA: what TSMC's sales mean for Nvidia;

Back to Intel, link here. Old story; being re-posted by Reuters.

 Evan, link here:

The EV narrative continues, link here:

Beth Kindig: link here. Just a sampling -- seems more grounded than Cathie Wood -

McKinsey technology trends outlook: 

• McKinsey recently published the 2024 edition of McKinsey’s Technology Trends Outlook, which details the 15 most important tech trends for this year, as well as the tools and resources needed to bring these opportunities to life. 
• long story short: 
• tech investments decreased by 40 percent in 2023 to about $570 billion. This is likely due to a challenging macroeconomic environment, including elevated interest rates. 
• some domains still grew, including generative AI, which saw a sevenfold increase in investments—and a 700 percent spike in Google searches—powered by remarkable advancements in text, image, and video generation. 
• electrification and renewables received the most investment last year, even more than gen AI. These investments aim to accelerate decarbonization efforts across the energy production, storage, and distribution value chain. 
• tech job postings declined by 26 percent in 2023, but we expect that trend to reverse. Today, many job candidates don’t have the high-demand tech skills employers require, but in the future they will.

Renewable energy:

• Siemens Energy announces restructuring of wind business; link here;
• hopes to resume sales of defect-plague onshore turbines later this year