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Tuesday, August 6, 2024

The Renewable Energy Narrative Continues -- Why? Because The US Is Awash In Cheap Natural Gas -- It All Began With The Bakken Revolution -- August 6, 2024

Locator: 48353NATGAS.

I remember when I first started the blog, more than ten yeas ago, Nancy Pelosi recommended that natural gas be considered a) a renewable energy source and not a fossil fuel; and, b) the bridge to future green energy. Absolutely amazing; brilliant woman. If I recall correctly, T. Boone Pickens had the same idea. 

Link here

Five New Permits; Nine Permits Renewed, Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- August 6, 2024

Locator: 48352B.

WTI: $73.02.

Active rigs: 36.

Five new permits, #41000 - #41004, inclusive:

  • Operators: Koda Resources (4); Iron Oil Operating
  • Fields: Daneville (Divide); Buffalo Wallow (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Iron Oil Operating has a permit for a Buffalo well, NENE 18-148-100, 
      • to be sited 257 FNL and 711 FEL;
    • Koda Resources has permits for four Bock wells, SESW 33-161-102; 
      • to be sited 377 FSL and between 1948 FWL and 2053 FWL

Nine permits renewed:

  • MRO (6): Treasure USA, Shell USA, Judith USA, Elva USA, Carolyn USA, and Anita USA, all in McGregory Buttes, Dunn County;
  • Enerplus (3): Cadence, Tempo, and Octave, McGregory Buttes, Dunn County;

Three DUCs reported as completed:

  • 39758, 1,047, EOG, Mandaree 120-1015H,
  • 40008, 1,744, Slawson, Thor 4-31-30H,
  • 40282, 1,320, Whiting, Sanish Bay E Federal 5292 31-6 5B,

As "We" Start To Recover From The "Market Re-Set" -- A Clearer Picture Develops -- August 6, 2024

Locator: 48351INV.

Of note, Intel, too important to fail:

From Reddit, link here:

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Tickers

NVDA:

INTC:

CHRD:

The EV Narrative Continues -- Tesla -- This Is Not The Chart Of A Thriving EV Company -- August 6, 2024

Locator: 48350TESLA.

The EV narrative continues.

Link here

It certainly appears 2023 - 2024 will be the watershed years when we look back on the EV industry in 2035.


 


Activity In The Bakken -- August 6, 2024

Locator: 48348B.

Most exciting Bakken operator: Chord Energy

Most exciting Bakken non-operator: NOG

Most aggressive Bakken operator (in a good way): Phoenix Operating

The Zavanna Collie Wells

Locator: 48347B.

We will sort out this activity later.


 


The wells:

  • 39979, conf/drl, Zavanna, Collie 13-25 1H, Epping,
  • 39980, conf/drl, Zavanna, Collie 13-25 2H, Epping,
  • 39981, conf/drl, Zavanna, Collie 13-25 3H, Epping,
  • 39982, conf/drl, Zavanna, Collie 13-25 4H, Epping,
  • 40523, conf/drl, Zavanna, Collie 13-25 5H XE, Epping, 

Wells of interest:

  • 22553, 527, Zavanna, Sabertooth 1-24H, Stony Creek, t8/12; cum 379K 6/24;
  • 18014, 1,057, Zavanna, Bobcat 1-25H, Stony Creek, t1/10; cum 226K 6/24; off line

AI Revolution Does Not Look Like The Typical Bubble -- August 6, 2024

Locator: 48346AI.

Forbes: excellent newsletter updated the "AI bubble." Great, great newsletter. I would link it but I can't find it on the browser. Pushed out as a newsletter for subscribers. 

From oilprice.com today:

Two camps:

  • AI is a bubble;
  • AI is not a bubble.

I'm in the second camp.

Earlier today I posted this two-liner:

  • AI revolution: more evidence today that the folks who suggest "AI" is a "bubble" do not understand what's going on. One can start here. Or here.
There are many more links that I have in the queue ready to be posted but I simply have run out of time, energy, and interest. When I clean off the desk, I may post them.

The Renewable Energy Narrative Continues; SunPower Files For Bankruptcy -- Add Another Log To The Fire -- August 6, 2024

Locator: 48345SOLAR.

The sun didn't come up for a lot of these companies this morning. My hunch: most of these failed CEOs are now lobbyists for the industry.

We're seeing it in both solar and EVs: when the "subsidies" go away, EVs and solar energy fail.

Link here.

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Put Another Log On The Fire

 Link here.

Does anyone remember this list?

This is the new list. I assume there are further updates or companies I missed. The bankruptcy updates are incomplete; I ran out of time updating all the companies that went bankrupt. I'll probably come back to complete the list later.

  • Tonopah Solar Energy LLC / Solar Reserve ($737 million) -- added July 30, 2020
  • Evergreen Solar ( Lost $25 million) -- bankrupt
  • SpectraWatt ( Lost $500,000)
  • Solyndra ( Lost $535 million) -- bankrupt
  • Beacon Power ( Lost $43 million) -- bankrupt
  • Nevada Geothermal ( Lost $98.5 million)
  • SunPower ( Lost $1.2 billion) -- files for bankruptcy -- August 6, 2024; is this the second time?
  • First Solar ( Lost $1.46 billion)
  • Babcock and Brown ( Lost $178 million)
  • EnerDel’s subsidiary Ener1 ( Lost $118.5 million) -- filed for bankruptcy -- January 26, 2012
  • Amonix ( Lost $5.9 million) -- filed for bankruptcy -- July 21, 2012
  • Fisker Automotive ( Lost $529 million) -- file for bankruptcy -- June 18, 2024
  • Abound Solar ( Lost $400 million)
  • A123 Systems ( Lost $279 million) -- filed for bankruptcy -- October 16, 2012
  • Willard and Kelsey Solar Group ( Lost $700,981)
  • Johnson Controls ( Lost $299 million)
  • Brightsource ( Lost $1.6 billion)
  • ECOtality ( Lost $126.2 million) -- filed for bankruptcy -- September 16, 2013
  • Raser Technologies ( Lost $33 million)
  • Energy Conversion Devices ( Lost $13.3 million)
  • Mountain Plaza, Inc. ( Lost $2 million)
  • Olsen’s Crop Service and Olsen’s Mills Acquisition Company ( Lost $10 million)
  • Range Fuels ( Lost $80 million) -- filed for bankruptcy -- December 2011
  • Thompson River Power ( Lost $6.5 million) -- filed for bankruptcy -- July 17, 2012
  • Stirling Energy Systems ( Lost $7 million) -- filed for bankruptcy -- September 29, 2011
  • Azure Dynamics ( Lost $5.4 million) -- bankrupt
  • GreenVolts ( Lost $500,000) -- filed for bankruptcy -- August 8, 2023
  • Vestas ( Lost $50 million) -- wind -- still "viable" as of 2024
  • LG Chem’s subsidiary Compact Power ( Lost $151 million)
  • Nordic Windpower ( Lost $16 million) -- filed for bankruptcy -- October 2012
  • Navistar ( Lost $39 million) -- narrowly avoided bankruptcy when bought
  • Satcon ( Lost $3 million) -- filed for bankruptcy -- October 17, 2012
  • Konarka Technologies Inc. ( Lost $20 million)
  • Mascoma Corp. ( Lost $100 million)

Here we go: the complete list. I believe this is for one the past 18 months -- calendar year 2023 and through 2024 so far.

The solar industry experienced exponential growth over the last decade as costs fell and favorable policies helped drive mass adoption.
However, 2023 has brought immense challenges, with higher interest rates, tighter financing, and adverse policy shifts in key states contributing to over 100 solar bankruptcies based on our industry data, a number unseen before in our almost 20 years in the solar sector.
California was particularly hard hit due to new net metering rules under NEM 3.0 that radically reduced system economics. These adverse state policy impacts exacerbated financing shifts, triggering plummeting demand and an 80% decrease in rooftop solar installation volume.
The California Solar & Storage Association reports that the fallout includes thousands of stalled projects, over 17,000 industry layoffs, and a wave of high-profile bankruptcies. While stronger players demonstrate some resilience, impacted homeowners and solar employees face prolonged uncertainty. The outright collapse of many once fast-growing solar firms provides a sobering case study on the potential unintended consequences of incentive transitions.

Solar Trust of America, LLC: link here.

The Sun Came Up This Morning -- Just As It Always Does -- August 6, 2024

Locator: 48344B.

Personal investing: added to an energy position for Sophia.

Tim Walz: Minnesota governor selected as Kamala Harris' VP. Follows a long line of highly notable and successful Democrats from Minnesota, beginning with our all-time favorites, Walter Mondale and Hubert Humphrey.

Biggest question: where will INTC open today? It may open up 27 cents, at $20.38. NVDA will open up $1.75. 

LEGO: has 187 "new" sets -- link here. Some are announced, but not yet available; can pre-order. Many on back-order. The 2024 Advent calendar available for pre-order. Amazingly, this one is almost always on back-order:

Mideast: let's start the countdown --

  • Friday, August 2, 2024: nothing
  • Saturday, August 3, 2024: nothing
  • Sunday, August 4, 2204: folks said "tonight" would be the night; nothing
  • Monday, August 5, 2024: Trump says "tonight" will be the night. Nothing.
  • Tuesday, August 6, 2024: twitter devoid of any incident in the Mideast overnight.

Mideast: the only thing I'm tracking today -- "Mideast" over at twitter. 

WMB, link here:

SRE misses. Ticker had trended toward $84, now trading at $78. Pre-split adjusted, this was a $140 stock (at best); now split adjusted it's just under $150.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.90. Held above $70. That's all we can ask for right now.

Thursday, August 8, 2024: 19 for the month; 75 for the quarter, 401 for the year
40236
, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Stocke 5-4-9H,
39602, conf, Hess, BL-iverson B-155-95-0807H-7,

Wednesday, August 7, 2024: 17for the month; 73 for the quarter, 399 for the year
None.
Tuesday, August 6, 2024: 17 for the month; 73 for the quarter, 399 for the year
40207
, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jean Ferrari 26-35-2 5H-LL,

RBN Energy: the "city" of Crane, TX, emerges as pivotal hub in Permian's evolving oil connectivity. Archived.

Crane, TX, entered the 20th century with a population of only 51 people but a staggering 21,400 cattle and sheep, reflecting its ranching roots. Established as a railway station along the Kansas City, Mexico & Orient Railway (KCM&O) in 1911, Crane initially relied on ranching and the railroad industry. However, the discovery of oil in the Permian Basin in 1926 drastically shifted its economic landscape, turning Crane into a bustling oil boomtown. And that was just the beginning. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the central role Crane plays in bringing crude from the prolific Permian to the U.S. Gulf Coast.