Locator: 48343TECH.
Tag: ASML, INTC, Intel, chips, AI.
Monday, August 5, 2024
Yahoo.Com -- Something To Think About -- August 5, 2024
Locator: 48342SOURCES.
Remember how, when you were a kid, when the Sunday newspaper came or the daily newspaper arrived, the first thing you turned to ? The comic pages?
Well, that's how it is for me when checking the news. First thing, every morning when I wake up, usually about 5:30 a.m. -- on the iPad -- in bed -- I turn to Fox News. Seriously. Better than the Sunday comics.
From there:
- CNBC
- Drudge
- X
Then it starts to get more difficult and more serious:
- The WSJ
- The NYT
- Barron's
- Forbes
But even after all of that, something seems to be missing. Interestingly enough, the best -- and I'm serious -- source of headlines is Yahoo.com.
I'm sure I'm forgetting something but I will update this page if necessary.
Search engine: google.
But there are some areas in which google fails. In those cases, I used Reddit. I don't use Quora as a search engine but it often pops up as a source for topical information.
CoWoS
Locator: 48341CHIPS.
Original post: August 4, 2024
Two camps:
- AI is a bubble;
- AI is not a bubble.
I'm in the second camp.
Earlier today I posted this two-liner:
- AI revolution: more evidence today that the folks who suggest "AI" is a "bubble" do not understand what's going on. One can start here. Or here.
There are many more links that I have in the queue ready to be posted but I simply have run out of time, energy, and interest. When I clean off the desk, I may post them.
But in the process of shutting down for the night, something new, at least for me, popped up: CoWoS.
Start here. I follow Beth Kindig.
From there, go to these three links:
After reading those articles, you should have one question.
Here's the answer to that one question, from Tom'sHardware of all things -- whoo-hoo -- if it's at Tom's it's credible and it's good: link here.
I think I've read almost everything there is to read about the market these past couple of days, and almost everything these is to read about Nvidia, and I'm struck by the fact that the most interesting observation was not made.
And if after all the reading I've done, and no one, I mean no one, has made that observation, then I have no interest in posting it.
She knows what I'm talking about And IYKYK. I know.
And with regard to the market, I couldn't be happier. I have significantly more cash flow now than I did during my peak earning years. I have a rolling 30-year horizon when it comes to investing. I no longer invest for myself. I'm done. I now invest for my five grandchildren. At these prices I'm buying as much as I can as quickly as I can. The third month of each quarter is the best month of each quarter for cash flow -- mostly dividends. August is nice and I will pick up some shares in some nice companies, but September is what I'm really waiting for. If the Fed can just hold out until late September, LOL. My grandchildren, twenty years from now will not ask what I paid for AAPL or CAT or CVX or SRE. They will simply be thrilled with the number of shares of XOM they have and the dividend income. Last week, for every three shares of anything I was buying, I can now buy four shares. It adds up.
By the way, all that money taken out of the equity market this past week -- will it all end up in MMFs? We will see when "My Favorite Chart" is posted two months from now.
I've already got my "buys" planned for tomorrow regardless what the market does. But it won't be any of the ones I've just mentioned.
But enough of this. I will be adding CoWoS to my "Tech" page and my" CHIPS" page.
The EV Narrative Continues -- August 5, 2024
Locator: 48340EVS.
EVs: consistent and recurrent theme on the blog:
- by now, "we" should be much farther along the S-shaped curve;
- Volkswagen (VW) looking to close an EV manufacturing plant in Belgium; first auto manufacturing plant to close in Europe; lack of interest in EVs in Europe
- American car companies can't afford to keep making EVs
- Tesla talking a big story, but failing to meet milestones
Search "EV narrative" on the blog for much more. Also this tag: EVS_NFM_UD.
Now this today, link here:
The data points:
The biggest European car market, Germany, saw the sales of electric vehicles plummet by 36.8% in July from a year earlier, as EV sales are softening worldwide and as Berlin ended subsidies at the end of 2023.
New car registrations of battery vehicle vehicles (BEVs) in Germany slumped to 30,762 vehicles in July from the same month of 2023.
July marked the largest annual drop in EV sales since the government ended subsidies for EV acquisitions in December 2023.
While BEV sales plunged, the overall car market held relatively flat. New car registrations of gasoline-powered passenger vehicles rose by 0.1% year-over-year in July, and diesel car sales increased by 1.4%.
Tesla’s new registrations slumped by 36.7% in July compared to the same month of 2023, and was among the worst-performing foreign brands in Germany last month.
Renault, Hyundai, and Fiat, among others, also saw their sales on the German market fall in July compared to a year earlier.
EV demand has visibly softened over the past year, leaving legacy automakers in the U.S., Germany, and France struggling with an overcapacity of their EV models as they realize that the transition to fully electrified transportation will be taking longer than they thought.
Earlier this year, BEV sales in the United States fell for the first time since the onset of Covid in 2020.
Peak Oil! What Peak Oil? One New Permit; Fourteen Permits Renewed; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- August 5, 2024
Locator: 48339B.
US shale production surprise, link here.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI; $74.21.
Active rigs: 43.
One new permit, #40999:
- Operator: Enerplus
- Field: Little Knife (Dunn County)
- Comments:
- Enerplus has a permit for a Lind well, lot 4, section 2-145-97,
- to be sited 481 FNL and 1058 FWL
Fourteen permits renewed:
- MRO (7): Collins USA, Ratcliffe USA, Rothgarn USA, Banta USA, Oukrup USA, Restad USA, Strobeck USA, all in Lost Bridge, Dunn County
- Oasis (2): two Cindy Blikre permits, Lindahl, Williams County
- Liberty Resources (2): a Herseth permit, and a Holmen permit, both Gros Ventre, Burke County;
- Koda Resources (2): two Stout permits, Fertile Valley, Divide County
- Whiting: a Larson permit, Corinth, Williams County
Producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 33973, 667, Enerplus, Titanium 147-93-16A-21H,
- 39757, 1,383, EOG, Mandaree 146-1016H,
- 39782, 1,535, CLR, Thorvald 6-6H,
- 40242, 3,670, MRO, Leny Jo 21-6H,
A Little Bit Of Everything -- And, No, This Is Not Like 1987 Or Even 2000 -- August 5, 2024
Locator: 48338ARCHIVES.
Market: wow, dividends and bonds that are already part of one's portfolio are looking really, really good.
Mideast: let's start the countdown --
- Friday, August 2, 2024: nothing
- Saturday, August 3, 2024: nothing
- Sunday, August 4, 2204: folks said "tonight" would be the night; nothing
- Monday, August 5, 2024: Trump says "tonight" will be the night.
Mideast: the only thing I'm tracking today -- "Mideast" over at twitter.
Trump says Israel will attack Iran tonight. Remember the time difference. "Tonight" in the Mideast means prime time television in this time zone (US central daylight time).
What does Iran have to lose if it persists in a regional war? A loss of its nuclear "weapon" sites. Israel is looking at an excuse / reason to take them out. A small response to Hezbollah / Hamas will not suffice, but an attack by Iran itself opens the doors for bigger targets for Israel.
Mideast: link here. Since this is not even a "thing" -- if one looks at the map there is no way Iran would fly over Saudi Arabia to attack Israel.
Iran shares no border with Israel, nor does Saudi Arabia.
To attack Israel, Iran would have to fly over a) Turkey (unlikely); b) Syria; c) Jordan (unlikely); Iraq (unlikely).
So if Iran can't even entertain flying over Saudi Arabia to attack Israel, what is Prince MSB really saying?
The Prince is saying it loud and clear: Saudi Arabia is not going to get engaged in a regional war. Saudi is not about to risk its oil over an Iranian mis-step.
AI revolution: more evidence today that the folks who suggest "AI" is a "bubble" do not understand what's going on. One can start here. Or here.
MLB app: I'm not going to provide the specifics quite yet, but "the MLB" has just got a new subscriber. Me.
Someone sent me tickers for a Texas Rangers game this week, and to get them, I needed to download the MLB app. Which I did. Thirty seconds while visiting Chipotle with Sophia, see below.
Downloaded the app on a lousy internet connection: no problem. And the tickets showed up. Small miracle. All the person had to know to send me tickets was my e-mail address. And my e-mail address for that app is attached to the IP of my mobile device and the risk of nefarious activity trends toward zero.
The market: link to The WSJ.
No worries from me. I'm taking all available cash and buying as fast as I can. Well, methodically and according to rule. The best news. Monthly dividends for August have yet to flow. For example, Apple / AAPL will pay August 15th. Whoo-hoo. Hopefully market doesn't recover until October. September is the big month for dividends, plus other mailbox money.
The last big opportunity to buy AAPL: when it sunk to $160.See disclaimers for the blog.
This is not 1987. Or 2000. Link to The WSJ.
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On Inflation And Fast Food Restaurants
Counter-intuitive: my nephew and I went out for Texas BBQ yesterday, Sunday. He mentioned he had been listening to a personal finance/investing podcast last week in which the analyst suggested that McDonald's low sales were due to the "Ozempic effect."
I doubted that Ozempic has anything to do with McDonald's low sales. First of all, Ozempic has not yet entered the mainstream to even begin to effect McDonald's. That may happen, but it will take awhile. Second, I'm not even convinced that the demographic group that is currently taking Ozempic is even going to McDonald's in the first place.
McDonald's sales, if they are down, are down because of the (perceived) high price for their entrees. Folks are cutting back on their visits to McDonald's because of their high prices. My nephew mentioned that McDonald's is now costing him upwards of $12 / meal for each of his eight-year-old twins.
Today, after "Tubular Camp," Sophia wanted to go to Chipotle, her favorite restaurant, by far. Nothing else comes close. I seldom go to Chipotle -- the servings are way too big for me. But if Sophia asks, I will take her to Chipotle. Today we invited her grandmother, May. I did not order anything but had a couple bites of the Chipotle salad that my wife ordered. Wow, it was incredible.
Sophia's burrito was too big -- as usual -- to finish in one setting. So, she had half of it there, and then took the other half home to enjoy later.
The Chipotle entre -- a burrito, a bowl, a salad -- all run about $9. My nephew mentioned that a McDonald's meal was trending toward $12 in the Minneapolis area. The most expensive item at McDonald's on a per serving basis? French fries. Chipotle: doesn't have French fries.
So, first observation with regard to McDonald's low sales. If you are a single, young, working adult going out to lunch, do you choose McDonald's where the perceived price for a meal is trending toward $12 or to Chipotle where an entree is about $9. Even if the prices for the lunch are about the same, where is that single, young, working adult likely to go?
The real question is this: if prices are really high, because of inflation, if you are going to pay "up," that is pay more because of inflation, are you going to pay "up" for mediocre fare or pay "up" for great fare? Are you willing to pay the same inflated price for McDonald's as you would for Chipotle?
Now, the second observation. Prices are high or "inflated" mostly due to what? It's my understanding the main reason for "inflated" fast food prices is due to wages. Wage inflation.
Wages aren't going to come down, and fast-food prices aren't going to come down. What could a fast food restaurant do to encourage customers: offer a "better" product for the same price! What a concept. Domino's can improve their product so many ways without adding anything (or at least not much) to the cost. After all, the "inflated" price of the pizza is due to wages. A 13"-pizza will cost the Domino's franchise almost nothing more than a 12"-pizza (or whatever the the current size is).
Across the board, Chili's, McDonald's, Wendy's, Domino's need to improve their products and advertise that improvement -- it's the wages that are said to be driving the inflated prices, not the ingredients.
My hunch:
- a) people will "pay up" for a Chipotle's; they won't "pay up" for a McDonald's.
- b) we should see "better" choices across the board at fast food restaurants, and "better" can come in many, many different ways.
McDonald's big problem: they really can't do much to change the perception of the quality of their product. The only way they can improve their product: lower the price.
Domino's: advertise a slightly "better" product than what the competition is serving, and keep the price the same. Because it's all about wage inflation, a slightly "better" product is not the problem.
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On Reading
I'm having a blast this summer getting back into my reading routine.
Currently reading:
- Jackie Kennedy (second book on Jackie K in past few months)
- Camera Girl: The Coming of Age of Jackie Bouvier Kennedy, Carl Sferrazza Anthony, c. 2023. Amazon.
- Jackie: Public, Private, Secret, J. Randy Taraborrelli, c. 2023.
- The Naked and the Dead, Norman Mailer
- A Walk on the Wild Side -- Nelson Algren
- Homer: Iliad (now that I'm older, I think the Iliad is a "better" book than the Odyssey
- The Greek playwrights: ASE (Aeschylus, Sophocles, and Euripides)
- native American history (two books)
I'm absolutely convinced that reading age-appropriate books on the following for the grandsons, age five to twelve, would be superb:
- the Bible (already being accomplished by the parents)
- Homer
- Shakespeare
By high school, I would add:
- Memoirs of US Grant
- Socrates, Plato, and, Aristotle (SPA)
- the Greek playwrights (ASE)
Literature:
- Catcher in the Rye
- The Great Gatsby
Fine art:
- Romanticism
Architecture:
- Frank Lloyd Wright
I'm struggling with coming up with a good book of the American Revolution. The ones I have are too detailed, don't have quite the flavor I'm looking for.
I'm also looking for a good book on chess. Not one about all the moves, per se, but more of history and philosophy of the game. Hard to articulate. Possibly this one.
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Teaching Reading
Three most important things when teaching children almost any subject:
- consistently and continually put things in context;
- the art of scaffolding; and,
- the techniques of speed reading.
Spaceholder
The Best Laptops Of 2024 -- NY Times -- August 5, 2024
Locator: 48336APPLE.
Eight best models.
First decision, Mac or something else.
Among the Macs, #1, look at that price! Wow.
An M4 MacBook Air will have to wait. Insert sad face here.
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Development in Grapevine, TX
It's Kamala's Race To Lose -- August 5, 2024
Locator: 48335POLLS.
Link here. From +4 points for Trump, to +3 points for Kamala.
Might As Well Separate Out These Posts For A Stand-Along Blog Today -- August 5, 2024
Locator: 48334BUFFETT.
There will probably be more before the day is over.
Headline: chance of recession rises from 15% to 25% -- was that Morgan Stanley? It was one of the big banks that came out with that over the weekend. The narrative: "... but still highly unlikely." And if it does, we won't know about it until well into Kamala's presidency.
Buffett: brilliant. The Sahm rule.
The Buffett indicator: if the indicator sounded an alarm five days ago, imagine how long and how loud the alarm is today! OMG! Link here. And if the Fed cuts rates, the indicator will only get worse. Buffett indicator here.
There is no recession. Link here.
Speaking Of Popped Bubbles -- August 5, 2024
Locator: 48332NATGAS.
Tag: natural gas, EVs, bubble, bubbles
Speaking of bubbles, from yesterday.
Cheap natural gas will destroy solar, wind.
Today, link here. Green energy flops ... in Europe!
I don't know if folks have been following the story, but for the past year -- maybe longer -- the natural gas story has been truly staggering.
The US, particularly, is absolutely awash in oil and it could be a whole lot "worse."
This is just the tip of the iceberg, as they say, link here.
And then we have the RBN Energy story today with regard to the Diversified Energy Co. Posted earlier:
RBN Energy: Diversified Energy Co (yes, that's a thing) plots growth through culling, harvesting mature gas wells.
The term “exploration and production company” has been widely used for only four or five decades, but the activities it represents have a history that dates back to the first oil well drilled by Edwin Drake in Titusville, PA, in 1859. Ever since that world-changing event, discovering and developing new sources of oil and gas has remained the industry’s passion, exemplified by wildcatters and, more recently, by the technological wizards of the Shale Revolution. To this day, every major public upstream company still invests in finding and developing reserves — except one. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the unique approach taken by Diversified Energy Co., which has grown substantially by ignoring the “E” part of E&P.
EVs: another bubble that already popped ... but it's getting worse (assuming a "popped bubble" can get worse). Link here.
The EV industry has been set back at least five years, after Ford's most recent quarter, and the news that VW is likely to shut down an EV manufacturing plant in Belgium (a small country in Europe).
The EV industry should by a lot farther along that S-shaped curve by now, but the industry is nowhere near the entry point of that S-shaped curve. Reminds me of failed middle school science fair projects.
Speaking of which: F will drop below $10 / share at the opening. But that's still a whole lot better than $4.33 on March 20, 2020. Trump was president then, if I recall correctly. Talk about an incredible buying opportunity back in 2020 and now .... it looks like another buying opportunity ... for those with a rolling 30-year horizon.
AI-Bubble -- Markets Crash -- It Appears JPow And The Fed Have The Pain They Were Waiting For -- Now Will The Fed Cut Rates? August 5, 2024
Locator: 48330MARKETCRASH.
JPow: the American idiom "two clever by half" comes to mind, but technically doesn't work. Wow, this blog was right on target -- some weeks ago. Over the weekend:
Blame it on the Bossa Nova: link here.
With regard to price of oil, US recession trumps war in Mideast. WTI down 2%; trading at just under $72.
Look back:
Equity markets crash. That is today's meme. Or, "buying opportunity."
Buffett: brilliant. The Sahm rule.
The Buffett indicator: if the indicator sounded an alarm five days ago, imagine how long and how loud the alarm is today! OMG! Link here. And if the Fed cuts rates, the indicator will only get worse. Buffett indicator here.
There is no recession. Link here.
What will I be following? Will INTC go below $20. It's already down 6.4% in pre-market trading and only eleven cents above the all-important $20-floor. As a reminder: Intel is too important too fail.
CNBC, first hour, my favorite CNBC hour: I won't see it this morning -- or all week for that matter -- I'll be driving Sophia to her water park camp on Lake Grapevine each day. Whoo-hoo.
Absolutely awash in natural gas: link here.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $71.92.
Monday, August 5, 2024: 16 for the month; 72 for the quarter, 398 for the year
40353, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Stocke 4-4-9H,
Sunday, August 4, 2024: 15 for the month; 71 for the quarter, 397 for the year
40451, conf, Neptune Operating, Frederick LE 3-10 11H,
39512, conf, Liberty Resources, Haley # 158-93-29-32-2MBH,
Saturday, August 3, 2024: 13 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 395 for the year
40450, conf, Neptune Operating Frederick 3-10 6H,
40336, conf, CLR, Dahle 4-35H,
39513, conf, Liberty Resources, Haley E 158-93-29-32-3MBH,
RBN Energy: Diversified Energy Co (yes, that's a thing) plots growth through culling, harvesting mature gas wells.
The term “exploration and production company” has been widely used for only four or five decades, but the activities it represents have a history that dates back to the first oil well drilled by Edwin Drake in Titusville, PA, in 1859. Ever since that world-changing event, discovering and developing new sources of oil and gas has remained the industry’s passion, exemplified by wildcatters and, more recently, by the technological wizards of the Shale Revolution. To this day, every major public upstream company still invests in finding and developing reserves — except one. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the unique approach taken by Diversified Energy Co., which has grown substantially by ignoring the “E” part of E&P.
Things We Wouldn't Know If We Didn't Have Twitter -- August 5, 2024
Locator: 48329DEADBEARCUB.
That story about the dead bear cub being run over and killed by a bicycle in NYC's Central Park?
Turns out it -- the dead bear cub -- was planted by RFK, Jr, who is currently forecast to receive 6% of votes to be cast for US president.
The New Yorks Times reporter that reported the story? RFK, Jr.'s second cousin, Tatiana Shlossberg.
She says she "didn't know." LOL.
Jackie Kennedy's family diagram here (incomplete; does not show the Schlossbergs
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Meanwhile
From Powerline over the weekend:
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Meanwhile, Iran's Rapid Response
Not so rapid.
If there's going to be a regional way, apparently Iran wants it to be fair: Iran delaying attack to allow US Navy to get into position
Overnight headlines:
- no attack yet
- a lot of reservations
- Iran says it reserves the right to attack
- Israel says it reserves the right to attack first if attack seem imminent
- Turkey says it reserves the right to invade Israel if it wants
- Blinken is frustrated; Biden sleeping; Kamala laughing; Trump mum
- Iran says it will attack its six Mideast neighbors if any of them interfere
- including UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia