Everything Everywhere Happening All At Once, Part 1 -- August 1, 2024

Locator: 48294ARCHIVES.

These are the stories that interest me most right now; links may eventually follow.

Politics:

• polls absolutely not looking good for Vance/Trump after "cats" and "hostage deal" comments
• presumed bounces before election:
• Trump has none
• Kamala has two: a) after she names her VP; and, b) after the convention
  
• we should know a lot more with regard to polling ten days from now, but right now some polls in swing states show huge lead by Harris
  
• Kamala doing final interviews for VP this weekend; will announce NLT than next Friday, I'm thinking Monday
• Trump underestimated the multi-racial demographic 
• next president will get at least one US Supreme Court pick; possibly two
  

Mideast:

• huge successes for Netanyahu the past two weeks; three top terrorists killed?
• but the story is not yet over

Investing

• if interested in equities, highly recommend following Evan over at twitter
• market is only going to get more volatile
• great, great buying opportunities for those with long horizons
• investors will stay the course

Chevron

• with regard to Hess / Guyana, Chevron in deep doo-doo
• Chevron / Hess need to find another path

EVs

• the narrative continues
• VW will close first automotive plant in Europe; first ever automobile plant closed in modern era

AI

• follow the money
• follow the data centers
• follow the chips
• investors
• stay focused: 
• copper, fiber, chips (CPUs, FPUs, NPUs), 
• data centers, hyperscalers, natural gas, utilities
  

INTC:

• down as much as 20% after hours; lowest in a decade;
• announced two-year warranty on all PCs affected by their fried CPUs; 
• will cost INTC huge amounts of money (think Ford, warranty costs)
  
• still hasn't released a fix for fried CPUs; fix not expected until mid-August

AAPL

• it will take a week to sort out the takeaways from the most recent quarterly earnings
• analysts don't get it: it's an "ecosystem" 
• services revenue is now becoming the story; 
  
• Apple, Inc. has more than 2.2 billion active and installed users
• does average Apple user spend $10 per month on Apple services?
• warranties
• AppleCare+ ($3/month)
  
• cloud storage (minimum: 99 cents/month; next level, $2.99/month; as much as $69.99/month)
  
• TV+ ($9.99 / month)
  
• ads
• Apple Music ($10.99 / month)
  
• is that $20 billion / month, almost free cash flow = $240 billion free cash flow?
• Apple's total net sales run about $400 billion annually
  
• new record set this last quarter but Tim won't release actual numbers
• an installed user:
• at a minimum: two mobile devices -- an iPhone and laptop
• most common: three mobile devices -- an iPhone, laptop, and tablet or watch
• rare, but not unusual: three mobile devices and a desktop
• perhaps not as rare as folks think: four mobile devices and a desktop
• each member older than ten years of age in a family has two mobile devices
  
• need for speed
• NVDA/AMD: moving at freeway speeds
• AAPL: taking the frontage roads
• INTC: in the ditch

• Apple's installed user base:

The Fed:

• panelists on CNBC fit to be tied that JPow and Fed "lied." Not following the data;
• had they stayed true to their word, would have announced a cut by now.
• anger / frustration will soon be forgotten; eager to see how long the buying opportunity lasts;
• September is a huge month for dividends; many folks hope buying opportunities last through the autumn;

Mad Money (CNBC): reruns --

• current episode: S18 E731 -- trying to find the date -- sounds like yesterday -- Thursday, August 1, 2024
• this is important because I missed today's episode; want to see the rerun tomorrow; eager to see what Cramer had to say about the debacle in today's (August 1, 2024) market
• cutting retail prices may drive foot traffic (think McDonald's) but it will hit margins --> will hit earnings --> will hit Wall Street; this is not rocket science
• Diageao YTD: -14.36% despite huge sales volume

Never quit reading.

Can You Visualize What This Pad Is Going To Look Like? Awesome -- So Much Work Left To Be Done In The Bakken -- August 1, 2024

Locator: 48293B.

Update

A 14-well pad in Bailey oil field.

The map:

The site with the rig on site:

• 40782, conf/drl, MRO, Orval 44-23H, Bailey,  

So much work yet to be done in the Bakken:

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Earlier Post

From May 14, 2024:

Locator: 47154B. 

Four new permits, #40748 - #40751, inclusive (May 14, 2024):

• Operator: MRO (whoo-hoo) (4);
• Field: Bailey (Dunn County -- whoo-hoo!);
• Comments:
• MRO has permits for four wells, NENW 26-146-93, Bailey oil field; 
• to be sited 740 FNL and between 2187 FWL and 2242 FWL: Gross; Rosenkranz; McAdoo; and Hafner;
• see the maps below from yesterday; the very same location; the same pad? 
• it looks like these wells will simply extend the line another 240 feet to the east;
  

Five new permits, #40743 - #40747, inclusive (May 13, 2024):

• Operator: MRO
• Field: Bailey (Dunn) -- YES!!!
• Comments: 
• MRO has permits for five wells, NENW 26-146-93; 
• to be sited 740 FNL and between 1922 FWL and 2002 FWL: Jens, Rappley, Eder, O'Donnell (Odonnell), and Sigrid. 
• these wells with share a pad with #40642, Thornton 31-26H.
• all are on confidential status, but I bet the horizontals run south, but they could certainly run north, but I'll put my money on the horizontals running south
• two producing wells in that drilling unit: #18736 and #17310

The map:

For All The Hand-Wringing On CNBC Today, Not Looking Like A Recession -- Yet -- August 1, 2024

Locator: 48292ECONOMY.

Link here. 

3Q24e: a GDP estimate of 2.5 down from 2.8 previously.

The Ledecky Saga -- August 1, 2024

Locator: 48291SPORTS.

Utility Stocks Surge -- August 1, 2024

Locator: 48290INV.

See this note. And this note.

In light of this, these two screenshots:

Five New Permits; Three DUCs Reported As Completed; Late Evening Trading WTI Back Over $78 -- August 1, 2024

Locator: 48289B.

From oilprice today: only in their dreams -- how many times have I seen such headlines in the past fifteen years ... including all the way up to $200 .....

********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.34 -- late trading, Thursday night, August 1, 2024.

Active rigs: 40.

Five new permits, #40989 - #40093, inclusive:

• Operators: WPX (3); Stephens Williston (2):
• Fields: Heart Butte (Dunn County); Stanley (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Stephens Williston has permits for two Prattsville Federal wells, SESW 7-155-90; 
• both to be sited 450 FSL with one 1859 FWL and the other 1894 FWL;
• WPX has permits for three FBIR MHA wells, NENW 18-149-92, 
• to be sited 1267 FNL/1864 FWL; 1282 FNL/1838 FWL; and, 1297 FNL / 1812 FWL

Four permits canceled:

• Whiting: four Holmberg permits, Mountrail County;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 29709, 1,678, CLR, Cuskelly7-7H1,
• 37571, 1,222, Cuskelly 6-7H,
• 40277, 0, BR, Carlsbad 1B UTFH,

AAPL -- Whoo-Hoo! LQ2024 -- June 2024 Quarter

Locator: 48288INV.

Surges after hours. 

Earnings call takeaways.

And this is their "slow" quarter.

AAPL won't cut its dividend. No headlines about cutting staff.

Meanwhile,  

INTC: worst Dow stock of the year — according to CNBC earlier this morning, before the market turned. Still no mention of fried CPUs. Later: down almost 15% for the day. Wow.

On a day like this, one can start to separate the winners from the losers. Investors should welcome days like this. When the Dow rises 600 points, everything looks good. When the Dow plunges 600 points, one can start to separate the wheat from the chaff.

But that's a story for another day. I'm trying to get off the internet -- going swimming.  

Not everyone is being punished. DoorDash, for example, is up almost 14% after hours, after earnings were reported. Again, corroborates my hunch. A plunge of 600 points on the Dow helps investors sort the wheat from the chaff. 

*************************
Intel -- INTC -- WSJ

Moments after posting the above, this was posted on line, WSJ. This was pushed to me on my iPhone as a WSJ alert.

[To put that in perspective: TWSJ publishes untold number of stories every day; I get no more than a half-dozen alerts from TWSJ every day. And today, this is one of two or three WSJ stories that got pushed to me. Speaks volumes.]

It's hard to get much worse.

Link here.

INTC dropped 5.5%, and then another 18% after hours? See ticker screenshot taken at 4:18 p.m. CDT, after the close, August 1, 2024:

**********************************
CNBC: "FAST MONEY"

Will they talk about AAPL? One of the bright spots today? LOL. The "Fast Money" panel absolutely hates AAPL.

Lots of talk about "recession is back on the table." "A hard landing."

"Fast Money" is now taking about INTC. Almost breathlessly. INTC earnings / conference call going on right now.

INTC announces a $10 billion cost cut plan but will continue to build-out its AI sector.

"Fast Money" panelist: "none of this is any good."

Another panelist: "shocked." And "shocked" with the comments made by Gelsinger.  

INTC now down to $23. 

The "Fast Money" folks seem like sharks circling Intel and Gelsinger. 

One panelist is "working overtime" / make a stretch that the INTC story is not unique. 

"Good for them" -- cutting their dividend. 

Carter: "isn't that something (the drop). Not executing." It's as simple as that. Actually it's more than that. But I've beat this dead horse one too many times.

It would have been a great seque to AAPL but nope, not to be. 

AAPL is up over 12%, YTD.

****************

Disclaimer Briefly
Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  

Finally, they talk about AAPL. Not much said. "Investors are simply going to have to wait." Services at a 20% growth rate a big surprise. Needs to be fact-checked. Services seems to be in a great place. Active base hit a new record. 

Tech is tracked here.

Chips are tracked here.

*******************************
The Story

Link here.

Intel plans to lay off thousands of employees this year and pause dividend payments in the fourth quarter as part of a broad cost-saving drive more than three years into Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger’s turnaround effort. [Three years' turnaround effort.]

Gelsinger laid out the plan to reduce costs by more than $10 billion next year as the chip maker reported second-quarter sales of $12.8 billion, down 1% and below analysts’ forecasts. Reaching that cost-reduction goal will require cutting jobs and lowering capital expenditures, among other moves, the company said.

Intel has struggled to gain a foothold in the market for artificial-intelligence chips that have driven the sales and valuations of Nvidia and some other rival chip makers. The heavy spending on those AI-focused chips to build out big data centers also has cut into demand for the non-AI processors for data centers that have long been central to Intel’s business.

“Clearly market conditions, some were good and some not so good, and you have to adjust the financial envelope appropriately,” Gelsinger said in an interview. “The AI surge was much more acute than I expected, and you have to adjust to those things.” [Did not mention much serious issues previously reported and well known to analysts.]

Intel will lay off about 15,000 people, most of them by the end of this year, Gelsinger said in the interview. The company reported about 116,500 employees in its core business at the end of June. [Trending toward 15%. Not trivial.]

Intel reported a loss of $1.6 billion for the second quarter, compared with a $1.5 billion profit a year earlier. It said it expected sales of roughly $13 billion in the third quarter, below analyst forecasts.

The pause in the company’s dividend follows a 66% reduction of the payouts last February.

Olympics Update -- Simone Biles -- August 1, 2024

Locator: 48287SPORTS.

This is an incredible story.

None of us have any idea how Simone Biles recovered.

But, my hunch: she had a formidable and dedicated psychologist. 

Decades ago, a very, very close colleague and I came together at the USAF F-15 base in Bitburg, Germany.

I was a flight surgeon, early in my career and willing to try anything, and learning fast. She was, I even remember her name after all these years,  a "Dr T---, "a seasoned psychologist who, for whatever reasons, left the civilian world to join the military. Her first assignment was as a staff psychologist at Bitburg Air Base. 

She entered the service as a major, an O-3, and being a bit older than most of us, she seemed a little bit out of her element. Actually, she probably wasn't. It was, instead, our white male prejudices, but be that as it may.

I was also, if I recall correctly, a major, an O-3.

If fighter pilots don't "accept" flight surgeons, I don't know the word to describe the feelings  they have about psychologists in their fighter ops. I'm sure she was ignored.

But "our" job was to ensure that fighter pilots were healthy -- physically and mentally -- when they stepped to their jets. We had a personal stake in this: we actively flew with them in the backseat of two-seat F-15s, of which there was one assigned for every seven standard single-seater F-15s in a typical squadron.

The two of us, the psychologist and I, developed a "mental health" course for the fighters. Of course, we didn't call it that. I forget what we called it and I forget how we were able to foist it on the fighter pilots in the first place (maybe more on that later), but we did. On a monthly basis, the two of us put on a "dog-and-pony" show for the "warriors at the tip of the sword" to discuss the mental health of fighter pilots. 

Pretty mundane stuff.

Sometime during that first year, the psychologist let me in on a "case"of which only she and her fighter-pilot patient (and I assume his squadron commander) were aware.

The fighter pilot was one of the top in his class. He had been assigned to Bitburg a. year or so earlier, doing as well or better than most of his colleagues. Only the best of the best F-15 fighter pilots were assigned to Bitburg AB.

Often, F-15s would take off simultaneously, wingtip-to-wingtip. Quite a site. And quite remarkable in its own right -- barreling down a runway reaching a 130 mph or so before rotating, wingtip-to-wingtip. 

One day, without warning, the pilot in question was unable to release his brakes to begin rolling, to begin the take-off sequence. He froze. It was as if a "giant hand" was holding his jet back and another hand was holding his throttle hand back. 

All he could do was taxi back to his TAB-V.  I have no idea what was going on frrom the time he froze to the time he began his taxi back. My hunch he concocted some story about a maintenance issue. 

But then it happened again and again. 

At some point, his squadron commander realized something else must be going on and -- huge credit to his insight -- he sought out the flight psychologist. Due to patient confidentiality issues and the sensitivity of the whole situation, the psychologist never let me "in" on this.

She must have worked with this pilot for six to eight months. I heard about it, probably at the four-month mark, and thought it was a "lost cause." And I was shallow enough now to understand the significance and importance of what she was doing.

At around six to eight months, the fighter pilot transitioned back to regular flying and fighting. 

I've long lost touch with all the players in this story. But this "story" certainly rhymes with the Simone Biles story.

Half-Time Report -- A Recession Is Back On The Table, Certainly A Bear Market -- August 1, 2024

Locator: 48286INV.

The market swing; with the economic data that was released today and the market sell-off today, across the board, the CNBC "Half-Time Report" analysts are all saying JPow and the Fed are now "behind the eight ball."

More damning, some are saying the market sell off is because JPow and the Fed seem to have "gone against their own word." Now that the data has come in and the data supports a Fed cut and that Fed does not begin cutting, traders are disappointed (angry) with the Fed for "lying" to them.

There's a general consensus the Fed and JPow have lost their credibility. 

There's a general consensus that JPow should have announced the first cut in his speech yesterday, July 31, 2024, and some suggest it is now obvious that the Fed and JPow should have begun cutting a month or maybe two months ago. 

The risk of recession -- a hard landing -- is now back on the table, according to panelists on the "Half-Time Report." 

It's interesting that the market started out green this morning, but then all of a sudden went red and "very" red very quickly. 

**********************
Apple

Not a good day for Apple to be releasing results.   Unless one's a buyer!

**********************
AI

Link here.

************************
Huge Buying Opportunity -- Thank You JPow

Huge cash flow and the new month has just begun. 

Wow. 

And a rolling 30-year horizon.

Massive Prisoner Swap About To Be Announced; AI, Large Data Centers, Natural Gas -- August 1, 2024

Locator: 48285GEO.

Massive prisoner swap: international --

• US, Russia and other countries
• Evan (WSJ) and Paul Whelan to be released.
• former president Trump's immediate response: 
• unable to be congratulatory
• unable to be gracious
• unable to show any warmth in his remarks 
• Trump is a hater, narcissistic, delusional, insecure, and a small man by any measure
  

Economic figures:

• productivity: significantly stronger
• unit labor costs: significant lower
• initial jobless claims: 249K vs 235K
• US equity markets response: improve slightly
• Steve Liesman comments
  
• hiring is slowing down
• the numbers are "very good"
• others comments
• yesterday, JPow seemed more concerned about slowing jobs than inflation
  

SRE: flat; trading at $80.06; in the old days, prior to the 2 - 1 split, this was a $140-stock;

INTC: worst Dow stock of the year — CNBC. Down again today in pre-market. Still no mention of fried CPUs. Later: down almost 15% for the day. Wow.

Now, on CNBC: segment on "Natural Gas Saving The Grid?"

• US just set an all-time record for the amount of natural gas used to produce electricity
• first four months of the year
• we've never used this much natural gas before in the history of the US
  
• hydroelectric: fell 20%; wind, natural gas couldn't off set loss of hydro
• concern whether nuclear energy will be sufficient going forward
• California changed course: will pivot on planned nuclear plant shutdown

West Virginia: setting natural gas production records with MVP coming on line.

See RBN Energy today.  

COP: beats. Will add the 20-cent VROC to the regular dividend in the fourth quarter.  See website.

HOUSTON—Aug. 1, 2024—ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) today reported second-quarter 2024 earnings and adjusted earnings of $2.3 billion, or $1.98 per share, compared with second-quarter 2023 earnings and adjusted earnings of $2.2 billion, or $1.84 per  share.  

• reported second-quarter 2024 earnings per share and adjusted earnings per share of $1.98.
• generated cash provided by operating activities of $4.9 billion and cash from operations (CFO) of $5.1 billion
• declared ordinary dividend of $0.58 per share and variable return of cash (VROC) of $0.20 per share payable in the third quarter.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.34.

Friday, August 2, 2024: 66 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 392 for the year
40449, conf, Empire North Dakota, Eagle 29 1
40410, conf, CLR, Dahle 5-35HSL,
40385, conf, Neptune Operating, Frederick 3-10 5H,
40305, conf, Stephens Williston, Cabot 15591-0112-2H,
39601, conf, Hess, BL-Iverson B-155-95-0807H-7,

Thursday, August 1, 2024: 61 for the month; 61 for the quarter, 387 for the year
40411, conf, CLR, Anheluk 4-26H,
40263, conf, Stephens Williston, Cabot 15591-0112-3H,
40089, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jean Ferari 26-35-2 4H,
40088, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jean Ferrari 26-35-3H,
39604, conf, Hess, BL-Iverson B-LN-155-95-0807H-1,

RBN Energy: AI, data center power demand and the implication for natural gas. Archived.

Data center power demand is soaring as AI — artificial intelligence — rapidly expands across all sorts of applications. That statement is certainly the top buzz factor in today’s energy markets. These facilities need 24x7, super-reliable power, and there’s only one power generation fuel that has any hope of keeping up with the demand surge: natural gas. While most data center developers would prefer green energy to cover their power requirements, the intermittent nature of wind and solar means that for many facilities, it can't happen, at least for the short-to-medium term hyped-up market we are seeing right now. But how much incremental power are we talking about? And how much natural gas will be needed? That’s what we’ll explore in today’s RBN blog. 

“Ever wondered why your smart speaker keeps asking for more power? It’s not just craving a caffeine boost — it’s trying to keep up with the insatiable demand of AI’s appetite for electricity!” Those aren’t our words. Instead, they’re what ChatGPT gave us (exclamation point included!) when we asked it to write a humorous first sentence for an RBN blog about AI and power demand. Not bad, really, but we’ll stick with human bloggers. (Well, for the time being at least!)

A Hat Trick? August 1, 2024

Locator: 48284GEO.

Tag: Mideast, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, Israel

Updates

August 3, 2024: this is even better. Link here. So, if the region goes back to all-out war, it will be:

• based on a lie; and,
• will bring back the full weight of the US Navy, during a US presidential campaign.

August 3, 2024: Iran's fake news, link here.

Original Post

And an update:

Initial reports, back on July 30, 2024:

Rumors: bullets grazed Iran's new president's right ear. Apparently sniper on top of mosque rooftop not seen. Iranian counter-snipers not trained to fire from slanted roofs. Inshallah.