All Of A Sudden, It's A Race -- July 23, 2024

Locator: 48219B.

Politics: all of a sudden it's a race. In most recent national poll, Harris, 44%; Trump, 42%.

Tesla 2Q24 earnings: the EV narrative continues. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $77.43.

Active rigs: 39.

Five new permits, #40950 - #30954, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR. (2), Hunt Oil (2), Empire North Dakota
• Fields: Beaver Lodge (Williams); Parshall (Mountrail); Starbuck (Bottineau)
• Comments:
• Empire North Dakota has permits for a Woodpecker well SWSE 29-161-78, 
• to be sited 410 FSL and 2370 FEL;
• Hunt Oil has permits for two Shell wells, NENE 7-153-89, 
• both to be sited 545 FNL, with one 355 FEL and 325 FEL;
• CLR has permits for two Vera wells, lot 1, section 1-155-95, 
• to be sited at 1140 FNL and 335 FEL, and at 1378 FSL and 310 FEL

Seven permits renewed:

• Enerplus: seven Fort Berthold wells, Eagle Nest, Dunn County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as being completed:

• 37107, 0, BR, Carlsbad 3B MBH,

AI Data Center Value Line -- July 23, 2024

Locator: 48218TECH.

For folks investing in AI, one might want to establish a strategic plan. Lots of ways to do that. 

Data center information is tracked here.

The AI data center value line, link here.

OpenAI and Broadcom, link here.

In case you missed it: I consider natural gas (production / delivery) an AI play.

Evolution: in biology, it is not uncommon for a DNA-RNA-protein to change over time (evolve). There are many examples of an organism that has benefited from a protein that evolved for whatever reason to  to be used for another function -- if that makes sense. We saw the same thing with NVID and we're going to see the same thing in energy. All that renewable energy stuff was for electrification for EVs. In fact, as EVs take a back seat / are delayed, all the electricity is now needed for large data centers. 

Back to biology, the phenomenon is known as "recruited genes," and a great example is provided with regard to the evolution of the eye. At the linked site do a word search for "recruited genes."

The earliest eyes were probably just simple eyespots that could only tell the difference between light and dark. Only later did some animals evolve spherical eyes that could focus light into images.

Crucial to these image-forming eyes was the evolution of lenses that could focus light.

Lenses are made of remarkable molecules called crystallins, which are among the most specialized proteins in the body. They are transparent, and yet can alter the path of incoming light so as to focus an image on the retina. Crystallins are also the most stable proteins in the body, keeping their structure for decades.

(Cataracts are caused by crystallins clumping late in life.)

It turns out that crystallins also evolved from recruited genes.

All vertebrates, for example, have crystallins in their lenses known as α-crystallins. They started out not as light-focusing molecules, however, but as a kind of first aid for cells. When cells get hot, their proteins lose their shape. They use so-called heat-shock proteins to cradle overheated proteins so that they can still carry out their jobs.

Scientists have found that α-crystallins not only serve to focus light in the eye, but also act as heat-shock proteins in other parts of the body. This evidence indicates that in an early vertebrate, a mutation caused α-crystallins to be produced on the surface of their eyes. It turned out to have the right optical properties for bending light.

Later mutations fine-tuned α-crystallins, making them better at their new job.

Vertebrates also produce other crystallins in their eyes, and some crystallins are limited to only certain groups, such as birds or lizards. And invertebrates with eyes, such as insects and squid, make crystallins of their own. Scientists are gradually discovering the origins of all these crystallins. It turns out that many different kinds of proteins have been recruited, and they all proved to be good for bending light.

Never, never quit reading. 

The EV Narrative Continues -- July 23, 2024

Locator: 48217EVS.

Everyone knows the "EV narrative" by now. 

So, just the links.  

GM backtracks. Link here.

Rivian, Ford, Apple, Tesla: former employees working together. Stealthworks.  Rivian's deal with Ford and Mercedes-Benz fell apart, but now, Rivian thinks it has a winning hand with Volkswagen. 

Mercedes: kept it quiet for a year, but the company's first mass-produced electric SUV went out with a whimper a year ago and we're just learning about it now. Link here.

Half-Time Report -- Secret Service Director Resigns — For The Archives -- Personal Investing -- July 23, 2024

Locator: 48216INV.

Link here.

 

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Personal Investing

Wow, listening to a Sara Eisen interview with analyst in AI -- gets me excited once again. I'm using pullbacks to add to my AI positions. The CRWD / CrowdStrike debacle was an incredible opportunity. 

Can't stress that enough. 

 

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Summertime

 

Twenty years from now, these kids are going to be thrilled with the AI investments that their great-grandfather Carl left them in 2019, and then the AI investments that their grandfather Bruce (me) left them, starting in 2024 and hoping to be complete by 2030. And hopefully, along the way, I'm leaving "good info" to their parents and to the grandchildren themselves. 

 

KMI: "jaw-dropping opportunity." Link here.

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Halftime Report

 

Cramer's first hour today was a dud, but today's "Halftime Report" is, again, awesome. 

 

By the way, have you all seen how AAPL is doing today -- all of a sudden?

Apple has bought back $87 billion of their own stock in the past year. Let that sink in.

• Josh Brown: Amazon -- his favorite stock this past year. Has doubled his position, and then doubled it again.
• Stephanie Link -- her favorite: Apple. But also holds Amazon.
  
• Continued to add to it in May but now some headwinds bother her. 275 million iPhones have not been updated in the past four years. AI will change that. The re-fresh cycle. Also owns AMZN. AMZN and AAPL are her only two MAG-7 holdings. Says AMZN will "crush it" in next earnings report, but Apple is still a turnaround story.
• Jenny Harrington: holds DIS and INTC; does not hold AAPL or AMZN. Also holds WMB. 

I consider natural gas (production / delivery) an AI play.  I'm not buying any more energy. I've been overweighted in energy for years, and for the past two years I've been trying to balance my portfolio -- mostly AI and some infrastructure such as CAT. 

UPS down 14% today. Not at all unexpected. I've talked about this before. 

AI target prices, link here:

****************

Disclaimer Briefly
Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• The audience for my investment-related posts: for the grandchildren who will inherit the estate and will benefit by knowing my strategy in putting that estate together. My investment-related posts are not for others. But it's the easiest way to keep my grandchildren in the loop.
  
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  

Intel In The News -- July 23, 2024

Locator: 48215TECH.

Link here. Link here.

Intel: admits its newest CPUs are crashing but they have identified a fix. 

 

Ticker:

Re-posting from July 14, 2024:

Locator: 48132INTEL.

We've talked about this for quite some time (see comments -- one of which is posted below).

Tech is tracked here. Chips are tracked here.

Now, we have the data.

Link here. 

The headline:

A typical comment:

Re-posting from July 3, 2024:

Locator: 48040TECH.

With regard to tech, chips, and investing, I consider this a big deal (for me). Note the usual disclaimer -- everywhere on the blog and also at the bottom of this page.

In the big scheme of things, I see:

• NVDA: GPUs
• AMD: CPUs
• MU: memory
• NPUs: multiple, proprietary
• AAPL: SoC

Tabs at the top of the page:

• Chips.
• Tech.

The big source: wiki.

• transistor county;
• system on a chip;

System on a chip: Apple and Broadcom graphics at wiki --

A quick perusal of all these sites, plus:

• the blog, January 20, 2023;
• Chip War, Chris Miller, c. 2022;
• around 2022, I pivoted from energy to tech and developed an investing map based on that book

Putting that altogether ....

.... so, when I saw this, I was quite pleasantly surprised.

AMD: to build a supercomputer, 30x larger than the world's largest operational supercomputer? Link here. Press release from AMD:

Be sure to read the comments at the link. Particularly this one: https://x.com/WatchThisIWC/status/1808252744056426652. 

So, it that just idle chatter coming out of nowhere? It sure seems "pie in the sky," but then this credible source, tom'sHARDWARE:

Possibilities:

• US public: only intel agencies, and AMD wouldn't be discussing this if that's where the offer existed
• US private: there are only a few companies that could pull this off; think of the trillion-dollar market cap club: Amazon, possibly; Apple, no; MSFT, no; Musk (TSLA), possibly; NVDA, obviously not.
• sovereign nations:
• as noted above, US, no
• Saudi Arabia: wouldn't surprise me
• Japan: why?

The timing is incredibly interesting. An AMD press release following an international conference: see above.

The Frontier computer at wiki.

Then to come full circle:

Putting that altogether ....

.... so, when I saw this, I was quite pleasantly surprised. As an investor, this is almost actionable intel:

• unlike global warming, climate change, the tech revolution is not controversial;
• the tech revolution is very, very real
• huge FOMO among sovereign countries, and large market-cap publicly-traded companies
• unlike the dot.com bust several decades ago, "real" hardware -- not just webpages and dreams -- are being sold
• the tech revolution is being "run" by huge, well-known, well-managed tech companies, not be start-ups that we saw during the dot.com bust
• unlike the dot.com period when start-ups depended on huge amounts of hedge-fund support, the companies involved in the tech revolution have huge cash reserves; they have huge cash reserves and/or equity valuation that is not considered wildly out of line
• this revolution is occurring despite high interest rates; imagine what happens when the Fed makes that first cut;
  
• tech companies are growing into their evaluations
• Exhibit A:
• Nvidia: a p/e of 73
• AAPL: below it's "usual" p/e
• AVGO: 73; 10-1 split pending
• QCOM: 27
• INTC: 33
  

While writing the above:

• MSFT hits a new all-time high;
• AAPL turns positive again; if closes in the green, will set a new record; hits a new all-time high;
• NVDA snaps several-day losing stretch and is now (nicely) green today;
• MU up nicely today.

****************

Disclaimer Briefly Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  

US Debt In The News -- Otherwise A Slow Beginning To The Day -- July 23, 2024

US debt:

• CNBC tried to get a scare headline out of the interview with CBO this morning; didn't get any "crisis" headline;
• now this, link here:

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Back to the Bakken

OKE: to expand pipeline capacity to meet growing demand at Denver International Airport. Link here.   

ONEOK Inc., Tulsa, Okla., plans to expand its pipeline capacity connecting Mid-Continent and Gulf Coast refined products supply with the greater Denver area to meet growing demand and increase connectivity with Denver International Airport.

The project—expected to cost $480 million and be completed in mid-2026—includes construction of a new 230-mile, 16-in. OD pipeline from Scott City, Kan., to DIA, and the addition or upgrading of certain pump stations along the existing refined products pipeline system, the company said in a release July 18.

Total system capacity will increase by 35,000 b/d and will have additional expansion capabilities.

WTI: $77.88.

Wednesday, July 24, 2024: 40 for the month; 40 for the quarter, 366 for the year
39968, conf, Petroshale, Primus 2TFH,
39636, conf, Hess, TI-State-158-95-3635H-2,

Tuesday, July 23, 2024: 38 for the month; 38 for the quarter, 364 for the year
39967, conf, Petroshale, Primus 2TF2H,

RBN Energy: how a slower energy transition might impact oil producers, refiners and consumers.

The last few years have been filled with often-spirited debate about the global energy transition and the move away from fossil fuels to fully embrace renewables and alternatives to keep the lights on, fuel vehicles and power the world’s economy. But there are a growing number of signs that a swift shift from petroleum is not realistic, which has implications in many areas, including which refinery expansion projects move forward (and where), when oil demand might peak, and which of the many forecasts for gasoline and distillate production will prove to be the most accurate. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from the new Future of Fuels report by RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice, including RFA’s expectations for how a slower transition might affect producers, refiners and consumers.