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Monday, July 15, 2024

One Step Closer -- What Apple iPhone Users Have Been Waiting For -- IOS 18 -- July 15, 2024

Locator: 48148APPLE.

Link here.

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Things Are Starting To Move Fast: Elon Musk To Donate $45 Million A Month To A New Pro-Trump Super PAC -- July 15, 2024

Locator: 48147POLITICS.

Elon Musk to donate  $45 million / month to a new pro-Trump Super PAC.

In her Wall Street Journal column just before the assassination attempt, Peggy Noonan made a very, very prescient statement. I'm paraphrasing her thoughts: things move slowly until they don't. When things start to move, they move very, very fast.

Link here.

Here's the actual quote:

Everything is about to change. It won’t stay stuck.

We don’t know exactly how the change will come but it will come, because what we have now can’t continue. Joe Biden can’t sustain a demanding campaign and is incapable of functioning for 4½ more years as the American president. We all know this. Only three people don’t know it. They think they can tough it out. But reality doesn’t care how tough you are, reality will have its way.

When things move, they’ll move fast. What should the Democratic Party do? 

That was my immediate thought when I read the headline that Elon Musk will start a new pro-Trump Super PAC ... or "Super Tramp PAC"? You all remember.

Also, it's been said many times that the US presidential campaigns don't begin until after the conventions.

This year, the Republican presidential campaign began with a bang, literally and figuratively on Saturday, two days before the opening of the RNC convention. 

July 13th. 

We don’t know exactly how the change will come but it will come ... in the July 11th edition of TWSJ. 

The assassination attempt just two days later. 

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Glad The President Clarified This -- July 15, 2024

Locator: 48146POLITICS.

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An MRO Reunion Bay Has Just Gone Over 600,000 Cumulative Bbls Crude Oil -- July 15, 2024

Locator: 48145MRO.

The well:

  • 36920, 4,336, MRO, Adonijah USA 44-5TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, first production, 11/20; t11/20; cum 239K 3/21; is anyone paying attention? Fracked 9/30/20 - 10/14/20; 11.1 million gallons water; 66.2% water by mass; 18.3% produced water by mass; Three Forks Second Bench; 24-hour oil: 4,336; 52 stages; 265K bbls volume; 16.92 million lbs proppants; cum 508K 11/22; cum 532K 3/23; cum 601K 5/24; full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-202431376839204474183981814730
BAKKEN4-20243033433360438215921157600
BAKKEN3-202431394038614438220132172442
BAKKEN2-202429428144825155249592466959
BAKKEN1-202431463744286418305933019494
BAKKEN12-202331418341245649284522814859
BAKKEN11-2023305349558361612709126629273
BAKKEN10-2023316331624773132883527749874
BAKKEN9-202327486147686838230762276991
BAKKEN8-2023243843398249312006419753122
BAKKEN7-2023315860584069632719226710185
BAKKEN6-20233051705122622825034247830
BAKKEN5-2023316555671382212886228476125
BAKKEN4-202330678267239166298322944093
BAKKEN3-202331751674879037332353287984
BAKKEN2-2023287686760490612954829097223
BAKKEN1-202320498149915703209982072586
BAKKEN12-202221407938825608180001766573
BAKKEN11-20221626032787390213056128701
BAKKEN10-2022317659763995783550034853171
BAKKEN9-202230829286841013035633352180
BAKKEN8-202229767678209681311043068755
BAKKEN7-20223110621105181190736622361700
BAKKEN6-20223013268128111579040170396660
BAKKEN5-20221028903147287412353122020
BAKKEN4-20222910426104211026044399427411219
BAKKEN3-20223113040129901504055246546820
BAKKEN2-20222712309123841292340098383761164
BAKKEN1-20223116566162471641644998444180
BAKKEN12-20211146395281495416728165030
BAKKEN11-20213016335162951661559196585270
BAKKEN10-20213124261240722318663008621240
BAKKEN9-20213029169288332774863657626470
BAKKEN8-20219709971076284104819872166
BAKKEN7-20211000110
BAKKEN6-20213021958221662289363512621020
BAKKEN5-2021312828328244261907074168370594
BAKKEN4-20213031750317992846860796572961559
BAKKEN3-20213137204372322936954912527030
BAKKEN2-20212731676316192477555989515472476
BAKKEN1-20213143625438824268363465608600
BAKKEN12-20203166239663207175386498825510
BAKKEN11-20202160451595837136064793612630
BAKKEN10-2020400306000
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The Slawson Thor Wells Tobacco Garden

Locator: 48144B.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed, from the NDIC daily activity report, July 15, 2024:

  • 40007, 980, Slawson, Thor 3-31-30H, Tobacco Garden, three days production;

A well of interest:

  • 21909, 869, Slawson, Thor 1-31-30H, Tobacco Garden, t2/12; cum 319K 5/24; recent production, see jump in production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20243194289396962213072129170
BAKKEN4-202413583852816752731950002254
BAKKEN3-20245228254784534280
BAKKEN2-20242918981956689298528400
BAKKEN1-2024522101370450
BAKKEN12-20237286727705294940
BAKKEN11-20233013081241411229321376
BAKKEN10-20232114421169463221221070
BAKKEN9-20230000000
BAKKEN8-2023103566431177797272
BAKKEN7-20233112321192423245623010

 The Thor wells:

  • 40009, drl/drl, Slawson, Thor 5-31-30H, Tobacco Garden, t5/24; cum 5K first 4 days;
  • 40008, drl/conf, Slawson, Thor 4-31-30H, Tobacco Garden,
  • 40007, drl/drl, Slawson, Thor 3-31-30H, Tobacco Garden, t5/24; cum 3K first 3 days;
  • 40006, drl/drl, Slawson, Thor 2-31-30H, Tobacco Garden, t5/24; cum 18K first 11 days;
  • 27008, PNC, Slawson, Thor 4-31-30HPNC, Tobacco Garden,
  • 27007, PNC, Slawson, Thor 2-31-30HPNC, Tobacco Garden,
  • 21909, 869, Slawson, Thor 1-31-30H, Tobacco Garden, t2/12; cum 319K 5/24; recent production, see jump in production --
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Monday's NDIC Daily Activity Report -- July 15, 2024

Locator: 48143B.

Burberry: crashes.

Drone kill: link here.


*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Bakken nomenclature: 

  • BR has changed its "well naming format" in the North Dakota Bakken: a "family name" -- chronologic number -- single letter; so, as an example:
    • Devils Backbone 5D:
      • a "family name": Devils Backbone
      • a chronologic number: 5
      • a single letter: D
    • the formatting change appears to have occurred in mid-2023; examples:
      • April 28, 2023: Demicks Lake 2C-TFH
      • June 14, 2023: Manchester 2E

WTI: $81.90.

Active rigs: 39.

Three new permits, #40922 - #40924, inclusive:

  • Operator: CLR
  • Fields: Cabernet (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for two Rutledge wells and one Entzel well, the first two NWNW 14-144-97; and, the Entzel NENW 14-144-97; 
      • all three to be sited 425 FNL and at 1277 FWL, 1309 FWL, and 1341 FWL.

Eight permits renewed:

  • BR: four Demicks Lake permits and four Clemens permits, Dimmick Lake, McKenzie County.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 40007, 980, Slawson, Thor 3-31-30H, Tobacco Garden, three days production;

A well of interest:

  • 21909, 869, Slawson, Thor 1-31-30H, Tobacco Garden, t2/12; cum 319K 5/24; recent production, see jump in production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20243194289396962213072129170
BAKKEN4-202413583852816752731950002254
BAKKEN3-20245228254784534280
BAKKEN2-20242918981956689298528400
BAKKEN1-2024522101370450
BAKKEN12-20237286727705294940
BAKKEN11-20233013081241411229321376
BAKKEN10-20232114421169463221221070
BAKKEN9-20230000000
BAKKEN8-2023103566431177797272
BAKKEN7-20233112321192423245623010

 The Thor wells:

  • 40009, drl/drl, Slawson, Thor 5-31-30H, Tobacco Garden, t5/24; cum 5K first 4 days;
  • 40008, drl/conf, Slawson, Thor 4-31-30H, Tobacco Garden,
  • 40007, drl/drl, Slawson, Thor 3-31-30H, Tobacco Garden, t5/24; cum 3K first 3 days;
  • 40006, drl/drl, Slawson, Thor 2-31-30H, Tobacco Garden, t5/24; cum 18K first 11 days;
  • 27008, PNC, Slawson, Thor 4-31-30HPNC, Tobacco Garden,
  • 27007, PNC, Slawson, Thor 2-31-30HPNC, Tobacco Garden,
  • 21909, 869, Slawson, Thor 1-31-30H, Tobacco Garden, t2/12; cum 319K 5/24; recent production, see jump in production --
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Historical Similarities -- The Current Equity Market Feels A Lot Like 1994 -- CNBC -- July 15, 2024

Locator: 48142INV.

To understand what CNBC is saying about the incredible 1994 bond crash / market recovery, this might be a reasonable article to read and consider:

From the linked article:

Stock investors should brush up on their Macarena skills and then sit down for a few episodes of "Seinfeld." These days, it's feeling a lot like the 1990s, some say.

For many investors, that brings to mind the overheated stock market of the tech bubble that spread in 1999, only to burst in early 2000.

But there were nine more years to the decade. The middle of the 1990s in particular was especially good for investors, with stocks posting big gains despite a slow-growth economy dubbed the "jobless recovery."

"While hoping the finale doesn't also repeat, we are seeing a lot of similarities between today's environment and the mid-1990s," says Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.

Recently, stocks have struggled to extend the big rally of 2013, when the S&P 500 index rose nearly 30%. So far this year, the S&P is up 0.89%, and some say the bull market is showing signs of fatigue.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has been the scene of most of the recent carnage. It's lost 6% since its March 5 high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, by contrast, is down 1% since its record set on Dec. 31.

Back in 1994, stocks stumbled but then quickly recovered as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. And in another similarity to today's backdrop, Washington was bitterly divided. Partisan fighting led to federal-government shutdowns in 1995 and 1996. But, as has been the case lately, the federal budget deficit narrowed.

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Holy Mackerel -- Morgan Stanley's #1 IT Pick -- AAPL -- July 15, 2024

Locator: 48141AAPL.

At the end of the day, I think the "oil" story is being missed. 

Until the "story" changes, the most exciting sectors / tickers for the next ten years:
  • energy -- fossil fuel -- as global demand continues to increase; absolutely not intuitive and "most" would disagree, but IYKYK (global demand for oil has hit new record, 103 million bopd)
    • in the energy sector, natural gas to provide electricity
    • four regional / state / ISOs to provide the electric grid
  • AI-dominant tickers
    • chips
    • software:
    • consumer electronics: there's only one
  • hyperscalers: data centers; cloud services
  • streaming, communications: 
    • there are only four in the mix that get my attention, and I wouldn't invest in any of them
  • last-mile delivery: there are only two that have my attention and only one in which I would invest
****************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  

Amazing: I've never seen so much time spent on AAPL by CNBC as we saw today. 

Price target significantly higher than today's close, but the "outside bull case" for Morgan Stanley has a price target of $379. 

Morgan Stanley is looking out over the next two years; this is not a trade -- this is a long-term investment story.

Many, many reasons Morgan Stanley argues the "bull case." 

Wow. 

CNBC's "Fast Money": on a day that was so amazing for AAPL, it will be interesting if AAPL is covered by "Fast Money" today. 

Dan Nathan, one of the four regular panelists absolutely hates AAPL -- he hates AAPL so much he has let us know that he has shorted AAPL. He was talking negatively about AAPL all the way back when AAPL plummeted to $165 earlier this year. The CNBC "Chart Master, Carter Braxton Worth, similarly consistently speaks negative of AAPL. The host, Melissa, remains balanced but I've never gotten the feeling she likes AAPL. 

Later, Fast Money: CNBC's "Fast Money" will cover AAPL according to the host's tease! 

But wow, Melissa is covering absolutely every other ticker than AAPL. She will get to AAPL but apparently in no hurry. Amazing. It's now 40 minutes into this one-hour program and AAPL has still not been mentioned. See this post for background for AAPL today. Now 45 minutes into the program and no AAPL coverage yet. Now "breaking news" with regard to one of many Trump cases. Breaking for commercial and then apparently will get to AAPL. And there it is: only panelist discussed it and brushed over it quickly, simply saying "AAPL's a bit too rich (at 32x next year's earnings) for him." Dan Nathan who had shorted AAPL did not say anything. LOL.

Meanwhile:



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MUST READ / MUST Watch: JPow's Comments At The Economic Club Of Washington, DC -- July 15, 2024

Locator: 48140JPOW.

Wow, wow, wow -- JPow at The Economic Club of Washington, DC --interview incredibly good. Anyone that missed this interview missed one of the best interviews I've ever heard on economics.

JPow was very, very freewheeling -- the interviewer was incredible. The interviewer was a doppelgänger for Leo G Carroll and was just as pithy and astute as the latter was in his Hitchcock movies. I'm thinking North By Northwest. 

JPow's  explanation of "transitory" was great. Great, great explanation.  Agree 1000%.

Just an incredible interview.

I'm sure the whole interview will be available later on CNBC or YouTube. Hopefully. A must watch. CNBC has a short clip.

Early on, JPow made it clear he was not going to talk about the market, future meetings, future changes in the "Fed rate," etc.

And then, less than a minute later he sent a very, very strong signal about the likelihood of a rate cut in September, if not July, 2024. Huge, huge signal. The "market" didn't catch the signal! Wow! Movers and shakers asleep at the wheel. It will be interesting if the CNBC panelists / anchors caught the signal. My hunch: unless JPow says something even more newsworthy, his comments / signaling will be the headline story.

Inflation target: 2%. That's the global-agreed-upon number set some years ago. He very clearly said that 2% is the "goal" set by the global community, but, he said very clearly, that a previous Fed chairman said if one waits until "we" get to 2% to cut rates that will be too late.

Employment target: not as amenable to a single number. Completely avoided the question.

Does JPow think we should eventually get back to "free money?" He said that was a very, very unusual period. Today, 5.3% is restrictive, but not particularly restrictive. The neutral rate is probably higher than the "free money" era. JPow suggests the Fed rate won't (ever) get back to "free money." 

That last statement / answer will provide huge information for those interested in "my favorite chart."

JPow suggests he's looking for a Goldilocks environment for both equity investors and those interested in bonds and Treasuries. That will make my wife happy.

An absolute pleasure to hear.

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Energy Snapshots -- One-Liners -- Provides Course Correction For Traders -- July 15, 2024

Locator: 48139ENERGY.

Ammonia fuel carriers: huge surge in interest. Maersk tankers and competitors bet billions on ammonia fuel carriers; owners place $16 billion of orders for ammonia, gas carriers. Maersk, Japanese, and Greek owners investing in this sector.  Link here.

Copper: vehicle electrification -- EVs -- requires 55% more copper mines by 2050. Link here.

US energy production / consumption spread widens. Link here.

US oilfield jobs: looking good.

Global oil demand: keeps surging. Link here.


And with global warming, demand will only increase. Exhibit A -- Saudi Arabia, link here.


From the linked article:
Saudi Arabia boosted imports of the dirtiest type of oil to the highest in more than three years to help meet power demand during the scorching summer.

Shipments of fuel oil rose in June to the most since at least the end of 2020, and are expected to remain elevated this month, according to data from market researchers Kpler and Vortexa. Purchases, which typically jump during the hottest months as air conditioners crank up, have risen as much as fourfold since March to about 350,000 barrels a day, according to Vortexa.

Saudi Arabia is the region’s biggest buyer of fuel oil, a type of dirty product that’s left over after refineries produce transport fuels like gasoline and diesel. It also burns crude oil directly to produce electricity, which likely contributed to the kingdom’s exports dropping to a 10-month low of about 5.6 million barrels a day in June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Fuel oil is mostly sold at a discount to crude since it’s heavier and more polluting.

Temperatures in Riyadh hovered in the mid-40Cs this week, according to AccuWeather, and can top 50C (122F) in the summer. The heat drives demand for electricity to power air conditioners, which in turn forces the kingdom to burn more oil.

And then there's AI, so it won't only be global warming driving energy demand. AI? Take a look at Taiwan. Link here.

And Taiwan's "woke" politicians appear to be asleep at the wheel. Link here.


And more, link here:

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My Favorite Chart -- The Issue Being Discussed On CNBC's "Halftime Report" Today -- July 15, 2024

Locator: 48138INV.

From July 10, 2024:

My favorite chart: link here.

Link here.

That increase, not only was it a reversal of the two previous months, the increase was not trivial. And, oh by the way, in the process, set an all-time record.

There are a lot of folks who have money on the sidelines -- albeit earning upwards of 5% -- but still -- a lot of folks with hundreds of thousands of dollars on the sidelines are starting to wonder if they just missed the biggest bull market in years.

Today, on CNBC's "Halftime Report," this was the discussion -- whether money is now coming off the sidelines (see chart above) pushing the market higher? 

My thoughts on this issue have not changed much. 

Regardless, this is the irony: a lot of folks took a safe/guaranteed 5% on their cash for the past year or so, and now that rates may be coming down they're looking at bringing money into the equity market. Meanwhile, the market has "exploded" / surged over the past few weeks, making it "scary" for these folks who like safety to now have to make a decision to get into equities, riskier by nature, and even riskier now with the surge in the equity market. 

Quite ironic.

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Apple Surges -- WTI Down -- Another Win For Trump -- NOG In The News -- Manic Monday -- July 15, 2024

Locator: 48137B.

One day only: MSNBC pulls "Morning Joe" off the air for one day, to "cool down" the rhetoric. 

Win for Trump: jude dismisses Trump's classified documents case. Will likely be appealed; will likely end up before US Supreme Court.

Apple: personal thoughts, flashback, March 22, 2024. Link here.

  • AAPL share price:
    • March 22, 2024: $172
    • April 19, 2024: $165
    • today, July 15, 2024: $235.60

BRK-B:  

  • BRK-B share price:
    • March 22, 2024: $412
    • April 19, 2024: $405
    • today, July 15, 2024: $432

Winner today -- CNBC flash: Netflix -- up almost $17; up 2.5%.

**********************************
July 15, 2024

WTI: $81.91.

Tuesday, July 16, 2024: 30 for the month; 30 for the quarter, 356 for the year
40430, conf, Neptune Operating, Gustafson 5-8 5H,
39637, conf, Hess, TI-State-158-95-3635H-3,

Monday, July 15, 2024: 28 for the month; 28 for the quarter, 354 for the year
None.

Sunday, July 14, 2024: 28 for the month; 28 for the quarter, 354 for the year
None.

Saturday, July 13, 2024: 28 for the month; 28 for the quarter, 354 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: Uinta's prolific waxy crude drives SM Energy / Norther O&G Purchase Of XCL. Archived.

The Uinta Basin is no Permian when it comes to drilling activity and production volumes, but the folks behind what may be the biggest M&A deal in Uinta history say the oil-production economics in parts of the quirky-as-heck play in northeastern Utah compare very favorably with the best of the Permian’s Delaware and Midland basins. And where else will an astounding 85%-plus of the produced hydrocarbons come out of the ground as high-quality waxy crude? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the recently announced plan by SM Energy and non-op specialist Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) to acquire XCL Resources in a pair of deals valued at $2.55 billion. 

That brings us to SM Energy and NOG’s recently announced agreements to acquire Uinta Basin producer XCL Resources, with SM Energy to purchase an undivided 80% interest in XCL for $2.04 billion (a combination of cash and debt) and NOG to buy the other 20% for $510 million (also a cash-and-debt combo). The deals — the largest ever for both SM Energy and NOG — are expected to close early this fall, subject to customary closing conditions. SM Energy will operate the assets the companies will  acquire from XCL, with NOG assuming its familiar role as a “non-op E&P.”

The agreements provide the acquiring companies with a total of 46,500 net acres in the over-pressured oil window in the Uinta (37,200 net acres to SM Energy and 9,300 net acres to NOG; see black-outlined area in Figure 1) and production of 53.5 Mboe/d (43 Mboe/d to SM Energy and 10.5 Mboe/d to NOG). Astonishingly, more than 85% of that production comes in the form of crude oil — and high-quality waxy crude at that, with an API gravity range of 36 to 43 degrees and the low-sulfur, low-TAN, low-metals and low-nitrogen benefits we cited above. (An over-pressured oil window is a geologic condition that favors higher levels of oil formation and production.)


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Futures Don't Mean Squat -- But Say What You Want -- I Prefer Green To Red -- July 15, 204

Good luck to all.

Locator: 48136INV.

 ***********************
Tech

Intel (INTC): screenshot -- 12:18 a.m., Monday, July 15, 2024 --

Nvidia (NVDA): screenshot -- link here -- 12:18 a.m., Monday, July 15, 2024 -- 

This is such an incredible story, I will probably re-post as a stand-alone story.

  • the article quotes NYU's Aswath Damodaran, Stern Business School:

  • in recent interview with CNBC said that the Magnificent Seven stocks have become the "value stocks for investors who care about earnings and cash flows."
  • the Magnificent Seven: in the last 18 months -- they've added $8.8 trillion in market cap
  • perspective
    • China, second largest market in the world, has a market cap of $12.1 trillion
    • these seven stocks have added more in market cap than the entire (combined) German market, the French market, the Swiss market
  • in the past: Damodaran had been consistently arguing that "major technology companies are fully or overvalued."
  • in his latest interview: "before we dismiss the Mag 7 stocks as risky tech companies, we should keep in mind that these are the money machines in this market."

BUT he says that the market overall is in a "danger zone."

Long, long article.

at No comments: