A $10-billion wind power project in Egypt, one of the world’s biggest, is set to see its construction start by March 2026, delayed from this year due to the process of land acquisition, the chairman of one of the companies involved in the project told Bloomberg.
The wind farm with a planned capacity of 10 gigawatts (GW) is being developed by Infinity Power, the largest African renewable energy developer, Hassan Allam Utilities, and the UAE's flagship renewable energy company, Masdar.
The construction was delayed from the initial timeline which envisaged breaking ground in 2024, due to the process of acquiring the land for the wind power development in the Upper Egyptian region of West Sohag, Mohamed Mansour, chairman of Infinity Power.
This is how they're trying to sell this project:
The huge wind project is expected to produce 47,790 GWh of clean energy per year and cut around 9% of Egypt’s annual carbon emissions by displacing 23.8 million tons of carbon dioxide annually.
The wind farm will also help Egypt meet its strategic objective of sourcing 42% of its energy from renewables by 2030. The 10-GW wind farm will save the country an estimated US$5 billion in natural gas costs per year.
*************************************** The Book Page
Actually two books.
Combee: Harriet Tubman, the Combahee River Raid and Black Freedom During the Civil War, Edda L. Fields-Black, 2024. Link here.
Night Flyer: Harriet Tubman and the Faith Dreams of a Free People, Tiya Miles, 2024.
It looks like that, of the two, I would prefer Tiya Mill's book.
Basis of essay by Casey Cep, "The North Star," The New Yorker, July 1, 2024, p. 61.
Tesla deliveries: to be reported the second day of the next quarter? Next Tuesday, July 2, 2024?
***************************** The Fed
The Fed, the "rate," the market, the talk: after lots and lots of discussion about the Fed and when will the Fed cut rates, and then today's numbers (the PCE) and then comments from various Fed committee members. the fog is starting to clear:
"they" may be talking about 2% inflation, but no one has really defined what components / what metric the Fed is really, really following (they have a "preferred" metric but that's just one of many); and,
no one has really, really defined how long the metric must remain at 2% for the Fed to cut.
If one has not yet noticed, the Fed's promise to cut the "Fed rate" is like watching Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown to kick, and furthering the analogy, if Lucy ever lets Charlie Brown kick the ball, he will find Lucy has moved the goal posts.
This is what's going on and how things will play out:
the Fed is not shooting for 2%; they're shooting for 1.5% inflation rate for several months and for indications that inflation has truly been tamed before they will make meaningful cuts;
to get to 1.5% inflation, we will have to see significant deflation (or is it called disinflation now?);
bottom line: the Fed is now targeting 1.5% not 2%;
the only way to get to 1.5% is to get through 2% and to see lots of pain;
the Fed hawks will want to see headlines of "pain" on the business pages of general interest magazines and other media outlets, not simply in the headlines of business magazines and other business media outlets.
the only "thing" now holding back that 2% target is rent, and maybe house prices, but in the big scheme of things, the only "thing" between now and 2% inflation is rent;
and the housing situation is so tight in the US, there is no chance landlords are going to lower rents, which is required if we're going to get to 2%.
So, again:
the Fed is targeting 1.5% inflation using undefined metrics and undefined time periods;
to get to 1.5%, lots of pain will need to be endured by the broad "middle class" -- however one wants to define that demographic
the lower class is relatively unaffected by inflation (and if they are, no one is listening to them anyway); and the wealthy are doing, doing very, very well with 5% in money market funds to hedge against their investments in Nvidia.
And, oh by the way, while contemplating the above, no one has ever explained to me why the Fed targets a 2% inflation rate, and not 1% or 1.5% or 3% or 3.5%. So, even targeting 1.5% is incorrect. In fact, the Fed is looking for something else, but the press and Steve Liesman need a number, and 2% is the Fed's number, though in fact, it should be clear by now, it's really 1.5% if one needs a number.
In fact, the Fed is looking for something else.
The Fed is looking for this: an undefined (for lack of a better word) "pain index."
The Fed's “pain index":
increasing unemployment rate, greater than 5% in U-3 unemployed;
the lack of "we are hiring signs" in the store windows on Main Street;
headlines in USA Today screaming the US economy is deteriorating;
a falling GDP but without going negative.
The Fed will get no credit if it lowers rates in a Goldilocks environment, but if the economy starts to deteriorate and the pain index is obvious to all, then JPow can swoop in, cut rates, and look like the hero. And if timing works out, the Fed’s dithering could prove to be incredibly fortuitous for the next president, whomever (whoever?) that might be.
***************************** The Market Today
The market was doing great the first half of the day, rising to new all-time highs in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ but then by the end of the day everything deteriorated. What happened.
This is so obvious.
Last day of the month; last day of the quarter; last day of the first half -- after an incredible one month, one quarter, one half -- the money managers sold, locked in their profits, will take next week off, and then get back in the market in late July before the summer doldrums really set in.
By the way, how bad was it?
Before the 10 - 1 split, NVDA was trading for $1,000 / share, or split-adjusted, $100 / share.
Now it's in the $125 range. Today. NVDA lost ... drum roll .... off 30 cents or thereabouts, and then NVDA rose after hours.
Although AAPL pulled back significantly today, AAPL was still up 1.42% for the week, and , like NVDA, rose after hours.
****************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market,
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my
posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market,
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
With only years, not decades, to go before California and other states mandate EVs across the board and with all the excitement (hype) regarding EVs, it is interesting to note this review in The WSJ today.
Why, oh why, oh why, if EVs are the future, why is Dan Neil reviewing the 2024 Chevrolet Colorado?
Dan raves about the Colorado, and then finished with this:
Why is Dan not extolling the virtues of an EV?
Whatever.
But it gives me a chance to take another look at truck classification.
From a post a long time ago:
*******************************
Truck Classification
In
a long note like this, there will be typographical and content errors,
errors of omission and commission. If this is important to you, go to
the source.
Class 1: passenger cars and really, really light-weight pickup trucks like the Ford Ranger, Toyota Tacoma, Nissan Frontier.
The
F-150 is almost a class 1, but it falls into the the class 2 category,
but class 2 is the only class further broken into class 2a and 2b. So,
the F-150 "upsets" the "trend" that one sees below.
Class 2a: F-150
Class 2b: F-250
Medium duty.
Class 3: F-350
Now,
it gets a bit interesting. An F-350 is a class 3 truck but an F-450
comes in both the class 3 flavor and the class 4 favor.
so, Ford markets two class 3 pick-up trucks: the F-350 and the F-450
class 3 F-450: the typical pick-up truck;
class
4 F-450: just the cab and the chassis; no "box." It's like the typical
urban tow trucks one sees everywhere picking up stalled EVs
Class 4: F-450 (chassis only model, as noted above)
A trend is starting to develop, continuing with medium duty.
Class 5: F-550
Class 6: F-650
Heavy duty
Class 7 26,001 - 33,000 pounds.: F-750; Kenworth K370, Mack MD, Peterbilt 220 and 337/348, etc.
Class
8, 33,001 - 80,000 pounds: Volvo Truck VNL, Freightliner Cascadia, Ford
F-750, Kenworths, Nikola TRE, Peterbilts, Western Stars, and so on.
I
figured out the nomenclature using the quarter-ton, half-ton,
three-quarter-ton naming, but now the "class nomenclature" makes sense.
Whether it was planned that way or not.
************************* Back to The WSJ Article
But this is why I am posting this.
In the comment section of The WSJ article:
This goes back to this by Dan Neil in the article:
Note: two things in that screenshot above -- first, the "size" of the pickup truck as the reader referenced, but also, the towing capacity.
Electricity rates by state, April, 2024, link here.
Electricity
bill, north Texas. Household energy: only electricity, no natural gas.
Utility says their electricity is 100% renewable.
My rate runs
about 15.6 cents per kWh, slightly higher than the "advertised" 14.25
cents, up slightly from 14.11 cents one year ago.
Record heat in Texas this spring. The grid held.
But note, the average high temperature unchanged from last year!
Two extra days this billing period compared to last year.
I've been less "stringent" this year with regard to conserving energy -- LOL. I am / was curious to see how that affects our overall usage.
So, less than the cost of a Starbucks coffee each day.
This year: 20 * 30 = 600
Last year: 18 * 30 = 540
15.6 cents last year = $84.24 last year.
15.6 * 600 = $93.60 this year.
Inconsequential.
************************** Kitchen Appliances
************************
The Movie Page
Wow, wow, wow. One of my favorite television personalities, Ms Della Street on Perry Mason. I always thought she was quite attractive, and then, what do you know? I just found Falcon Out West, starring Tom Conway, and ..... lo and behold --- starring Barbara Hale. Born in April, 1922, same year as my day, and this movie came out in 1944 -- making Barbara Hale about 21 years old when she made this film.
Wow.
Died in Sherman Oaks, CA, at age 94. Wow. Brings back memories of my few short years in southern California.
************************** Presidential Politics
The first presidential debate was last night.
Folks know how that turned out. Bottom line: Democrat movers and shakers are trying to figure out how to replace Biden at the top of the ticket.
Fast forward twelve hours.
I just received the current issue of The New Yorker, cover dated July 1, 2024, with the lead "The Talk of the Town" story, "Comment: Debatable." It was written before the first debate last night, and gives the writer's view of that (upcoming) debate. The author, Evan Osnos, completely missed what would be the topic of the debate.
Everyone tuned in to watch DJT.
But everyone left the debate remembering only the vacant look of the president.
For Evan Osnos to completely have missed this possibility tells us how well the White House has been "hiding" Joe Biden and how quickly the latter has gone "downhill."
Three comments and observations:
the spectacle last night raises the question whether the president has the stamina for a "classical" cross-country campaign. Spoiler alert: no;
the question whether Joe will renege on his agreement for two debates; and,
most importantly, donor funds for Biden will dry up even as Trump's donations surge.
In a "normal" situation, all would agree that Biden lost the election last night, but 2024 -- with DJT -- nothing is normal.
Having said that, the US Supreme Court is making a lot of decisions favoring Trump and not Biden. We can start with January 6.
Disclaimer: this is no endorsement of either candidate.
***************************** The Movie Page (Again)
Wow, wow, wow. Now, following Falcon Out West, we have the Scapegoat (1959), based on a novel by Daphne du Maurier -- one of my favorites, starring Bette Davis and Alec Guiness, with screenplay by Robert Hamer and Gore Vidal, another favorite.
All of these old films only became more poignant over time with much more meaning to me personally after my time in England, 2002 - 2006, or thereabouts.
The premise of the movie is most interesting. It will be interesting to see if it holds up. Nicole Maurey, b. 1925, would have been about 34 years old (?).
As
usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit.
There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not
quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better
understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do
not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans
based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this
stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to
the source.
These are cases, not permits.
31046, CLR, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acreunit, one well; Williams.
31047, CLR, Stockyard Creek-Bakken and/or Crazy Man Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well, Williams County.
31048, Formentera Operations, Frazier-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, eight wells, Divide County
31049, Hunt, Parshall-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; two wells; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, one well; Mounrail County.
31050, Hunt, Ross-Bakken establish four overlapping 2560-acre units, one well on the various section lines; Mountrail County
31051, Hunt, Clear Water-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, nine wells, Mountrail; or in the alternative establish two overlapping 1280-acre units, four wells one each unit, and an overlapping 1280-acre unit, one well between the units, Mountrail County.
31052, Equus Energy Partners and WGO Resources, create three 320-acre units; one well on each; Golden Valley County.
31053, Phoenix Operating, Kittleson Slough-Bakken, establish a 1920-acre unit, eight wells, Mountrail.
31054, Grayson Mill, Westberg-Bakken, authorize up to nine wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, McKenzie County.
30998, MRO, Bailey and/or Lake Ilo-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit one well, Dunn County.
30999, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, one well, Dunn County.
31000, MRO, Lake Ilo-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well, Dunn County.
31001, Five States Operating, Bull Creek-Madison, establish two 320-acre units, one horizontal well; Stark County;
31002, Oasis, Dollar Joe-Baken, establish an overlapping standup 2560-acre unit, two wells; Williams County.
31003, Oasis, Strandahl and/or Bull Butte-Bakken, establish two overlapping standup 1920-acre units, three wells on each unit, Williams County.
31004, Hess, Camel Butte and/or Blue Buttes-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 1280-acre unit; one well; McKenzie County.
31005, Hess, Sorkness and/or Big Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 1920-acre unit, two wells; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well, Mountrail County.
31006, Hess, Big Butte-Bakke, establish an overlapping standup 1920-acre unit; two wells; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; Mountrail County.
31007, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, one well, Mountrail County.
31008,
NDIC commission, confiscation of all production-related equipment,
#36308, Oltmans Ocelot, Freedom Energy Operating, Stark County.
31009, BR, revoking permit legalese affecting Enerplus, Little Knife.
31010, BR, revoking permit legalese affecting Enerplus, Little Knife.
31011, MRO, pooling
31012, MRO, pooling
31013, MRO, pooling
31014, MRO, pooling
31015, MRO, pooling
31016, MRO, pooling
31017, MRO, pooling
31018, MRO, Lake Ilo-Bakken; authorize five wells on a standup 1280-acre unit; Dunn.
31019, MRO, Lake Ilo-Bakken, authorize six wells on a standup 1280-acre unit; Dunn.
31020, BR, commingling,
31021, commingling,
31022, Lime Rock, pooling,
31023, Oasis, pooling,
31024, Oasis, pooling,
31025, Oasis, pooling,
31026, Oasis, pooling,
31027, Oasis, pooling,
31028, Oasis, pooling,
31029, Oasis, commingling,
31030, Hess, pooling,
31031, Hess, pooling,
31032, Hess, pooling,
31033, Hess, pooling,
31034, Hess, pooling,
31035, Hess, pooling,
31036, Hess, Blue Butte-Bakken twelve wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie.
31037, Hess, Blue Buttes-Bakken; eleven wells on a 1280-acr unit, McKenzie.
31038, Hess, Blue Buttes-Bakken, fourteen wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie.
31039, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, eight wells on a 1280-acre unit, Williams.
Lego: I can guarantee you that the homeless living in tents in Portland are not interested in Lego. Except for re-sale.
We're not yet seeing this in the DFW / north Texas area -- yet.
Residents in Portland, OR, now talk about "personal assistants" accompanying Walmart customers.
When I visited Portland, I stopped at Walmart to buy two items: socks and work gloves. Both items -- socks and work gloves in different parts of the clothing section -- and both were under lock and key. Both times I had to "buzz in" for assistance. My "personal assistant" arrived immediately, she did not speak English as her first language, was incredibly friendly, and was able to tell me my items would be at register 8 when I was ready to check out. And they were. Incredibly smooth process. No complaints.
Mercedes-AMG, Speed Champions set, $44.99, backorder;
amazing how many sets are on backorder (due mostly to shipping delays)
Debate:
clearly the pundits and headline writers didn't see the same debate that the rest of us saw. If one steps back and takes a broader view ... one sees a completely different landscape ...
an important economic measure for the Federal Reserve showed Friday that inflation during May slowed to its lowest annual rate in more than three years.
the core personal consumption expenditures price index increased just a seasonally adjusted 0.1% for the month and was up 2.6% from a year ago, the latter number down 0.2 percentage point from the April level,
both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones estimates.
May marked the lowest annual rate since March 2021, which was the first time in this economic cycle that inflation topped the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
reminder: March, 2021 -- the one year anniversary of the Trump-mandated Covid-19 lockdown. That's what Biden inherited.
Cramer:
soft landing
all that's left is the rent number
these were not numbers for a "Fed rate raise"
************************ Back to the Bakken
WTI: $82.10.
Sunday, June 30, 2024: 75 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 338 for the year None.
Saturday, June 29, 2024: 75 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 338 for the year None.
Friday, June 28, 2024: 75 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 338 for the year None.
The Panama Canal expansion completed in June 2016 was expected to allow
much larger LNG tankers to move product from Sabine Pass LNG and other
Gulf Coast export terminals through the canal to Asian and Latin
American customers. But water levels at Gatun Lake, which provides the
fresh water needed to operate the canal’s locks, have been well below
normal in recent years, limiting opportunities to use the canal and
complicating plans to ramp up LNG flows through it. In today’s RBN blog,
we look at the challenges of moving LNG through the Panama Canal, how
access to the waterway has been affected by drought and climate
conditions over the past decade, and the impact on the LNG market.
