MRO With Two More Bailey Oil Field Permits -- June 12, 2024 -- IN PROGRESS

Locator: 47826MRO.

From today's daily activity report:

• MRO has permits for two more wells in Bailey oil field, a Kleven well and a Margaret well, both SESE 21-146-93, 
• both to be sited 622 FEL, with one to be sited 438 FSL and the other 478 FEL;

The map:

Other permits, wells sited in this section:

• 38793, drl/A, MRO, Rowe 14-21H, Bailey, t3/23; cum 192K 4/24;
• 38794,
• 38795,
• 38796,
• 38797,

• 40708, conf/loc, MRO, Simmons 31-27H, Bailey, 
• 40824, conf/loc, MRO, Simmons 31-27H, Bailey, 
• 40828, conf/loc, MRO, Kleven 31-28H, Bailey, 
• 40829, conf/loc, MRO, Margaret 41-28H, Bailey, 

• 18253, 344, MRO, State Ralph Howard 31-16H, Bailey, t1/10; cum 575K 4/24; 
• 24091, 1,832, MRO, VMR Trust 11-16TFH, Bailey, t3/15; cum 261K 4/24; 
• 28848, 1,554, MRO, Sydney 14-9TFH, Bailey, t3/15; cum 282K 4/24; 

Selected production data:

• 18253:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2024	17	3272	3332	3343	3979	3895	49
BAKKEN	3-2024	31	6052	6041	6711	6961	6710	199
BAKKEN	2-2024	29	5572	5537	5154	4942	4901	5
BAKKEN	1-2024	31	5287	5308	7366	5653	5604	3
BAKKEN	12-2023	31	6943	6978	7446	6997	6923	23
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	7520	7484	8922	6705	6609	50
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	8471	8422	8698	6142	5760	345
BAKKEN	9-2023	23	4911	4940	5446	2961	2919	21
BAKKEN	8-2023	29	8066	8085	10291	5908	5870	2
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	10342	10345	16625	7328	7272	19
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	13035	13033	21368	8070	8031	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	15682	15699	25691	11388	11342	4
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	18583	18565	39146	12609	12552	10
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	18103	18041	51509	13518	13286	188
BAKKEN	2-2023	20	9640	9660	39455	6790	6669	97
BAKKEN	1-2023	10	8543	8523	37986	5915	5684	210
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	22	1127	1322	824	746	0	513
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	1581	1586	1147	1034	0	718
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	1676	1624	1310	1104	0	763
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	1775	1847	1288	1160	0	807

BR With Three DUCs Reported To Be Completed; MRO With Two New Bailey Oil Field Permits -- June 12, 2024

Locator: 47825B.

McDonald's: in case you missed it. 

McDonald's is making things fair for everyone. Because those who drive through can't take advantage of free refills, McDonald's will now remove all self-serve soft drink / soda machines. That way those who drive through won't feel they are being discriminated against. It won't happen overnight; McDonald's goal is to have the new policy in place everywhere by 2032.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.32.

Active rigs: 35.

Five new permits, #40828 - #40832, inclusive:

• Operators: Hess (3); MRO ((2);
• Fields: Robinson Lake (Mountrail); Bailey (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for three EN-Horst wells, SWSE 34-155-93; 
• to be sited 1540 FEL and between 512 FSL and 578 FSL;
• MRO has permits for two more wells in Bailey oil field, a Kleven well and a Margaret well, both SESE 21-146-93, 
• both to be sited 622 FEL, with one to be sited 438 FSL and the other 478 FEL;

Two permits renewed:

• Slawson: two Nightmaker permits, Big Bend, Mountrail;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported to be completed, Carlsbad wells tracked here:

• 37108, 0 (no typo, typical for BR), BR, Carlsbad 3C UTFH,
• 37109, 0 (no typo, typical for BR), BR, Carlsbad 3D MBH,
• 37110, 0 (no typo, typical for BR), BR, Carlsbad 4A UTFH,

Focus On Dividends -- CAT -- June 12, 2024

Locator: 47824DIV.

CAT: link here.

"The Nobel Prize" In Economics, 2025: To Jay Powell; The Oscar For Best Supporting Actor In A Dramatic Series, 2025: Jay Powell -- June 12, 2024

Locator: 47823MARKET.

Tag: economy, JPow, the Fed, crazy.

Quick! Name one other individual that even comes close to winning in these two categories.

Link here.
Link here.

All you have to know about the market today:

• BRK-B: down, red, negative.
• Dow: down 60 points; down 0.15% (where Buffett plays)
• S&P 500: up 42 points; up 0.75%;
• NASDAQ: up 260 points; up 1.5%.
  

Another record:

Later:

Flashback: The Early Bakken -- History Of The Bakken -- June 12, 2024

Locator: 47827HISTORY.

For the archives. The early Bakken.

I'm in the process of moving / transcribing my scores of handwritten and typewritten journals, diaries and notes to the web. 

This from December 27, 2009:

On another note: my dad says the word on the street is that 90 wells a year will be drilled for the next 20 years in Williams County. Is that possible? Rough calculations: there will soon be 100 rigs in North Dakota. A well can now be drilled in less than 30 days but let’s take time off for refurbishing wells, etc., and just say a rig drills 10 wells a year: that’s a 1,000 wells/year in North Dakota. 

Right now there are about four counties where most of the work is being done: Mountrail, McKenzie, Williams and Dunn. But in addition, there’s Burke, Bottineau, McLean, Mercer, Golden Valley, etc. Let’s say 50% in Mountrail, 10% in each of the other “big four,” and 10% for all the rest. 10% of 1,000 wells is a conservative 100 wells next year in Williams County. Whether it can sustain for 20 years is another story, and, of course, for it to continue, they need to continue getting good wells. Time will tell. But 100 wells in Williams County is huge.

How did things turn out?

CY 2023:

• 859 oil and gas permits were issued
• 187 of those permits were for wells in Williams County

CY2022:

• 814 oil and gas permits were issued
• 253 of those permits were for wells in Williams County

CY2017:

• 1189 oil and gas permits were issued
• 319 of those permits were for wells in Williams County

For The Archives -- US Supreme Court -- Law Of The Land -- Chevron -- June 12, 2024

Locator: 47826SCOTUS.

I'm posting this now for the archives.

I have not read much of it, am vaguely aware of the issue, but want to post this now, and then track it here, on this page.

This is likely to be a huge, huge deal.

First, from Bloomberg today, in it's entirety.

The Labor Department has shifted away from a legal doctrine directing courts to defer to an agency’s reasonable reading of ambiguous laws as it defends against challenges to high-profile wage and overtime rules—a signal that it’s bracing for the US Supreme Court to shred the Chevron standard, Rebecca Rainey reports.

US Justice Department attorneys initially responded that the agency’s rules should be granted Chevron deference—a defense that was later dropped when the cases were appealed. The agency says it’s not necessary to rely on Chevron because the rules expanding overtime pay eligibility and limiting when employers can pay tipped workers a lower minimum wage were issued within DOL’s statutory authority.

The shift in legal strategy comes as agencies brace for the Supreme Court to rule before the end of its term in a pair of cases that could gut or largely scale back Chevron.

Agencies’ silence on Chevron has mounted in recent years, amid growing skepticism of the doctrine, but increased following the high court’s decision last year to take up the issue.

Business groups, seizing on the Chevron abandonment, say it shows the rules are illegal exercises of agency power. 

“The Department’s brief does not mention Chevron even once,” the National Restaurant Association argued in its lawsuit challenging the DOL’s final tipped wages rule, issued in 2021.

That Bloomberg note then ends and links to this page:  

First: 

• Chevron dropped from two Department of Labor (DOL) cases on appeal
• Part of a larger litigation strategy at Justice Department

Then: 

The US Labor Department is abandoning a legal doctrine under which courts defer to agency interpretations of laws as a shield against challenges to some of its most high-profile rulemakings, a sign it’s attempting to head-off the US Supreme Court’s expected gutting of the Chevron standard.

Business groups have cited the 1984 ruling in Chevron Inc. v. Natural Res. Def. Council, Inc. in their arguments against DOL rules expanding overtime pay eligibility and limiting when employers can pay tipped workers a lower minimum wage. They argue that the regulations fail to carry out Congress’ clear direction on the law.

While US Justice Department attorneys representing the DOL initially responded that the agency’s rules should be granted Chevron deference, that defense was later dropped when the cases were appealed.

The agency says it doesn’t need to rely on Chevron because the rules were issued within its statutory authority. However, business groups are seizing on those omissions and arguing they provide evidence that the rules are illegal exercises of agency power.

“The Department’s brief does not mention Chevron even once,” the National Restaurant Association argued in its lawsuit challenging the DOL’s final tipped wages rule, issued in 2021. “Nowhere does the Department expressly contend that the Final Rule satisfies any of the specific steps of the Chevron analysis, much less all of them, as the Final Rule must in order to be valid."

And it continues from there.

AI -- June 12, 2024

Locator: 47825AI.

WWDC24 is tracked here.

From TWSJ: 

Joanna got it exactly right.

Again, Apple integrates everything. Apple is one big eco-techno-niche. 

One can see how Apple will do this. At the Keynote presentation, watch four minutes (or slightly less), starting at the 46-minute mark -- the new Apple calculator, and Notes -- "Smart Script" -- starts about 48:45. 

Apple integrates all its hardware with all its applications through AI. For Apple, AI is not an AI-App-icon. It is integral to M4 -- an SoC with its CPU-GPU-NPU nestled together with software already optimally configured by one "company." 

Note: 

• $3.00 trillion --> $3.33 trillion = an increase of $0.330 trillion or $330 billion in just a few hours.

Market cap for:

• BA: $310 billion
• GM: $55 billion
• JPM: $552 billion (which, by the way, is "negative" today)
• MU: $155 billion (up over $5 today)
• SNOW: $43 billion
• KO: $270 billion

One can assume the Apple short squeeze continues. Perhaps intensifying.

With Only 34 Rigs -- June 12, 2024

Locator: 47824WTI.

Link here.

And as consolidation continues, all things being equal, rig counts will continue to decrease.

Rig counts are no longer relevant (don't take that out of context). Rig counts haven't been relevant for years, probably since 2016.

What is relevant? The fracking techology and "fracking schedule" introduced by guys like Harold Hamm.

Whatever happened to Carbo Ceramics?

AAPL In Early Morning Trading -- June 12, 2024

Locator: 47823BRK.

Tag: Apple, AAPL, BRK.

BRK has sold positions in AAPL in two consecutive quarters, 4Q23 and 1Q24. 

What was he thinking?

Story Of The Day -- USA Today -- In Texas, Of Course -- Just Northeast Of San Antonio -- June 12, 2024

Locator: 47822TEXAS.

Tag: Buc-ee's. 

Link here.

From the linked article:

Spread over 75,000 square feet, the new Buc-ee’s in Luling is "the largest Buc-ee’s location in the country, bringing the largest Buc-ee’s back (to) where the legend began," the company said in a news release in May. The new store has replaced the city’s current Buc-ee’s store, which was the brand’s first ever family travel center, built in 2003.

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- June 12, 2024

Locator: 47822OIL.

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here: 

• US crude oil in storage: 4% below five-year average;
• refiners: 95.0%
• jet fuel product supplied: up 11% y/y

Venezuela -- June 12, 2024

Locator: 47821VZ.

From Peter Zeihan today:

A country that once boasted high education levels, cultural achievements and a thriving oil industry, has managed to turn a winning hand into a losing one.

Leaders like Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro helped lead the country down the path of collapse.

At this point, the only thing keeping the country afloat is the partial lifting of sanctions by the Biden administration; however, the continued neglect is leading Venezuela’s oil industry towards failure.

Without skilled labor or a major company to step in, we could see Venezuela become a net oil importer within a year.

Once the oil goes, so does everything else. We're talking economic woes, societal dislocations and famine.

Major company or country. I'm thinking China. Possibly Russia/Cuba. One has to think big. Outside the box.

Here We Go -- Again -- AVGO To Hit 52-Week High -- Recession, Stagflation, Correction? Not Today -- June 12, 2024

Locator: 47820TECH.

Market at open:

• inflation numbers excite investors; better than forecast;
• Dow jumps 300 points;
• S&P 500 hits yet another record

Heat map, live:

ORCL: link here.

From the linked article:

Nvidia was rising early on Wednesday following earnings from cloud-computing company Oracle which referenced demand for its chips as it strikes more deals to support artificial-intelligence technology in its data centers. 

Nvidia shares were up 0.2% at $121.20 in premarket trading after the stock closed down 0.7% on Tuesday. 

Nvidia’s 10-for-1 stock split took effect after Friday’s closing bell. Demand for Nvidia’s chips was emphasized by enterprise-software giant Oracle in the latter company’s own earnings report after the market closed on Tuesday. 

Oracle CEO Larry Ellison said the company was using Nvidia chips in a deal to provide additional AI training capacity for ChatGPT-developer OpenAl. 

Oracle said its capital spending is likely to double in 2025, which includes the cost of building a data center for OpenAI. 

While Oracle didn’t specify how many Nvidia chips would be used, it noted in a statement that its infrastructure for training AI models can scale up to 64,000 Nvidia Blackwell graphics-processing units or GB200 Grace Blackwell Superchips.

AVGO:

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Disclaimer Briefly Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

After Yesterday, Not On My BIngo Card Today -- Futures Surge -- WTI Trending Back Toward $80 -- June 12, 2024

Locator: 47819B. 

Inflation numbers today, link here:

The market's response:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $79.08.

Thursday, June 13, 2024: 61 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 324 for the year
40313, conf, Empire North Dakota, Woodpecker 29-11 1H,
40091, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 3T,

Wednesday, June 12, 2024: 59 for the month; 123 for the quarter, 322 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: US to shut northeast gasoline reserve after ten years, but will it be missed? Archived. The very final sentence of the article at the link answers that question. Spoiler alert: no.

The March appropriations bill passed by Congress and signed by President Biden to fund the federal government mandated the emptying of the federal gasoline reserve in fiscal year 2024, which concludes September 30, followed by its eventual closure. 

That means about 1 MMbbl — 42 MM gallons — of gasoline will find its way to the market in the next few months, or in as little as a few weeks. 

The Department of Energy (DOE) is planning to distribute those barrels by the end of June to help keep a lid on gasoline prices ahead of the July 4 holiday and into the heart of the summer driving season. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the decision to close the reserve and the potential impact of those barrels hitting the market.