Locator: 47092EARNINGS.
Reminder tomorrow:
Reminder, today:
Look at that, tomorrow, anticipation: ERF, STR, OMG.
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The Book Page
This week, I'm continuing to read A History of the Jews in America, Howard M. Sacher, c. 1993.
Absolutely fascinating. A great summer / beach book.
Locator: 47090B.
WTI: $78.31.
Active rigs: 40.
Five new permits, #40724 - #40728, inclusive:
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported to be completed:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 31 | 24015 | 23966 | 38938 | 16426 | 15267 | 1105 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 5 | 10889 | 10858 | 17638 | 7158 | 7101 | 38 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 31 | 17345 | 17265 | 53655 | 14066 | 12265 | 1717 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 152 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Locator: 47089EARNINGS.
Reminder, today:
Look at that, today, anticipation: CHRD, OXY, CRC, OMG.
OXY: Ticker today: flat during normal trading hours; flat after hours pending announcement; earnings report here. EPS: 75 cents.
OXY is scheduled to release first-quarter 2024 results on May 7, after market close. In the last four reported quarters, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 3.39%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 56 cents per share on revenues of $6.7 billion.
The top and bottom-line estimates suggest a decline of 7.7% and 48.6%, respectively, from a year ago. Missed on sales. Ticker down in after hour trading. Wow, you just get the feeling that nothing is going right for Buffett right now.
CRC: Ticker today: up slightly during normal trading hours; flat after hours pending announcement;
California Resources Corporation Common Stock is expected to report earnings on 05/07/2024 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Mar 2024. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 2 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.58. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $2.63.
CHRD: after market close; consensus EPS, $4.81; consensus revenue estimate is $766.26 mllion. Ticker today: up slightly during normal trading hours; flat after hours pending announcement; earnings here. Dividend: all in — $2.94.
Locator: 47087INFLATION.
12-pack, 12-oz bottles.
$12.99 / 2 = $6.50 / six-pack.
That seems less than upwards of $11.99 / six-pack often seen not too long ago. Just saying.
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The Book Page
Tolstoy, War and Peace, "... every army moves on waves of ignorance and misinformation."
Norman Mailer remembered having read that when writing The Naked and the Dead.
Then, epitomized in the Coen Bros Burn After Reading.
Locator: 47086AAPL.
Updates
May 7, 2024: what's wrong with the iPad? Opinion at Bloomberg. I love my iPad. I use it for entertainment. When I want to work, I use my laptop. In a world of apps, it's all about the iPad.
Original Post
Biggest takeaways:
Apple Special Event. On Safari, apple.com. On now.
Starts with quick update / review by Tim Cook.
MacBook Air: world's best-selling 13-inch laptop and 15-inch laptop.
iPad: an amazing device in all respects. Great versatility. Huge updates today:
"GoodNotes" and iPencil -- for college students
streaming and social media with high resolution
new iPad Air
new iPad Pro
Apple Pencil
College generation now talking about taking entire Apple Suite into the college library:
a
Locator: 47085INV.
AAPL: CPUs, GPUs, and NPUs.
SRE:
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Investing Philosophy
But first we start with "bacon vs Spam." Link here.
Now, back to regular programming.
Investing philosophy, from the blog November 6, 2023, some editing this date (May 7, 2024):
Personal investing:
I remain fully invested, holding no cash.
I have a predictable revenue stream.
I have a rolling 30-year investment horizon.
I have never and will never invest in bonds. My utility holdings and energy holdings now serve the same purpose as bonds.
I used to put my revenue stream into the market every two weeks; now I invest throughout the month, but zero out all cash by the end of the month.
I have six major buckets and invest at this ratio, with examples:
The percentages / allotments represent some major changes.
Those percentages will change periodically.
"Everything" right now suggests increased recession fears and/or market pullback after the first of the year (2024). Exhibits A and B:
Reminder:
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I
am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
From October 31, 2023:
From October 31, 2023 -- yesterday -- Goldilocks opportunity for investors.
Locator: 45881INV.
Cash has rarely been this hot on Wall Street. Financial advisers warn holding too much can burn a hole in your portfolio.
With markets rocky and cash earning 5% or more, investors have boosted their holdings of money-market funds to a near-record $5.6 trillion, according to the Investment Company Institute. Both individuals and institutional investors are piling in—asset managers now have roughly one-fifth of their portfolios in money-market funds, State Street data show.
Cash was trash for years on Wall Street, where low interest rates left investors buying every dip, saying there was no alternative to stocks. The prospect of a prolonged period of higher rates has upended that thinking, buffeting both stocks and bonds while increasing the returns offered by some of the safest, shortest-term investments such as money markets. Yet many advisers caution that fees, taxes and inflation all undermine those returns. And one of the biggest costs is opportunity:
By pouring money into cash, investors miss out on potential gains from holding a broad portfolio of stocks, bonds and other riskier investments. “Money-market funds are a rational place to be for the next six months. But over the long term, taking risks pays you more,” said Wylie Tollette, chief investment officer for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions.
“Keeping any more than a small allocation to cash in your portfolio, for any longer than the short-term, will ultimately cost you thousands or millions of dollars.” Though often treated as akin to a bank account, the funds differ from normal savings accounts and other cash-like investments, such as CDs. They typically lend cash to banks overnight (backed by Treasurys), park it at the Fed or invest in Treasury bills maturing in a few months. Still, they are considered equivalent to cash because investors generally expect to get their money back whenever they ask. To that end, the funds try to maintain a net asset value of $1 a share.
Barron's, on Apple and other dividend-paying growth stocks, link here.
Locator: 47084CHRD.
Reminder:
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I
am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder:
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I
am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
Reports after market closes this afternoon.
CHRD: merger of Oasis and Whiting. Now in process of acquiring Enerplus. Probably three of the best operators in the Bakken. Chord is an investor-friendly company.
Dividend history:
Ticker history:
One year ago, link here:
Investing:
But I wasn't paying attention.
By the way, an aside. I often don't check the market. I've discussed that often. I haven't looked at CHRD in a long time. I started accumulating a small position when the merger was announced and occasionally buy a few more shares, but I don't pay attention to the price -- simply buy according to my plan.
Okay, enough.
I wasn't paying attention. It appears no one else is either. Not one reader sent me a note regarding CHRD.
Friday, March 3, 2023:
Earnings call for CHRD: link here. Archived.
Highlights.
Three-mile laterals:
Taking our best view, which does incorporate significant year-on-year inflation that we've experienced, we expect to invest approximately $825 million to $865 million of capital in 2023, which is in line with consensus once accounting for the roughly $20 million of capital pushed from the fourth quarter of last year, which I discussed previously. Importantly, Chord's program focuses on operational efficiency and consistency, which we believe not only supports cost-effective operations, but also support safer operations.
This operational efficiency is also supported by synergies derived from the merger and our development strategy. 3-mile laterals are a big part of the 2023 story as we're expecting 3 milers to comprise approximately 50% of TILs in 2023. We brought online our first 3-mile laterals in the second half of last year in Indian Hills, and they are performing nicely. Slide 9 illustrates what we are seeing with remodel performance and colonnades in an economic uplift of about 25 points when going from 2 miles to 3 miles. In total, Chord's 2023 program is expected to result in a reinvestment rate of around 50% at $75 WTI.
Free cash flow:
In closing, Chord is generating strong returns, which supports our sustainable free cash flow profile and feeds our robust return of capital program. We demonstrated this with approximately $1.3 billion of free cash flow in 2022 and over $1.2 billion return to shareholders. Our operations team continues to improve the asset base demonstrably through spacing and longer laterals, which drives a longer, more predictable and more economic inventory life.
Buyback philosophy:
So I'd say, just broadly speaking, we tried to learn some from the lessons of the past and one of those clearly is to avoid procyclical buybacks. And so that certainly goes into our thinking. We've got a pretty disciplined view on how we think about share repurchases. As you noted, I think, importantly, we view them opportunistically, not really programmatically.
And I'd say we would define that opportunity as a combination of when our shares are trading under what we think our intrinsic value is at conservative pricing and when we're trading at a discount to our peers. And so we're really looking at dislocations on both of those -- on both of those items, not just a single item.
And so when we see that, depending upon the magnitude of those dislocations, I think you'll see us be pretty aggressive. Certainly, there was an example of that last summer. But really, it's not just -- it's not just our dis -- the discount to our intrinsic basin value, but also how we're trading relative to our to peers.
Dividend history:
Locator: 47083B.
Personal investing: today, will be adding positions STR, SCCO, and TSM.
Most important interview: CNBC interview with Eric Schmidt on AI.
AAPL: today at 9:00 a.m. CDT.
DIS: The new darling on Wall Street?
Cramer, et al, are apoplectic on Disney ticker action pre-market. Cramer is about to go ballistic. David Faber can't believe how far DIS fell despite earnings beat. They simply don't get it. Cramer mentions Morristown in passing. Wow, I miss Linda. Life is too short.
SRE: has reported.
CHRD: Anticipation.
Cash. Whatever.
Women working: another bragging point.
DEI: DOA.
WHOA: it's gonna be one of those days. Whoo-hoo!
Only in America:
Reminder:
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I
am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
An "artificial intelligence conference" in Washington, DC: is that an oxymoron?
Burn After Reading: great movie last night. "Free" on Amazon Prime last night.
JPow: I agree completely with Jim Cramer and his remarks on JPow. Cramer's got it right. Again.
Tyson: mentioned in passing by Cramer.
The collapse of the "news industry": link here. I normally don't follow Politico but this is a must-read essay. Mentioned Hunter S. Thompson.
Lucid, pre-market:
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $78.31. Israel begins Rafah invasion and WTI falls. Okay. Saudi continues to struggle.
Wednesday, May 8, 2024: 9 for the month; 73 for the quarter, 272 for the year
40119, conf, Neptune Operating, Heen South 5-8-17 7H,
Tuesday, May 7, 2024: 8 for the month; 72 for the quarter, 271 for the year.
37106, conf, BR, Carlsbad 3A UTFH,
RBN Energy: combination of factors pull US crude oil exports back from record highs. Archived.
The U.S. has become an oil-exporting powerhouse in recent years, propelled by booming shale production, notably from the Permian Basin. U.S. crude oil now flows more freely than ever to help meet global demand, including to Europe, which increasingly turned to the U.S. following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two-plus years ago, but exports have slowed recently. In today’s RBN blog, we examine a half-dozen reasons why the export surge has tapered off and why it may not change much in the weeks ahead.
According to our weekly Crude Voyager report, where we track individual vessels leaving the U.S. Gulf Coast with crude oil, exports established an annual record in 2023, averaging 3.8 MMb/d (far-right bar in Figure 1 below), 20% more than the previous annual record set in 2022. Except for COVID-impacted 2021, U.S. crude oil exports have increased every year since 2015, when the ban on most crude oil exports was lifted.
Figure 1. U.S. Gulf Coast Oil Exports by Year by Origin Terminal. Source: RBN
