Anticipation -- May 6, 2024

Locator: 47082INV.

Look at that, tomorow, anticipation: CHRD, OXY, CRC, OMG. 

*******************************
The Movie Page

Burn After Reading.

Coen Bros.

And an all-star cast. 

Absolutely amazing this movie is "free" (don't take that out of context) on Amazon Prime. 

After thirty years and a day with the USAF, with my last seven years at HQ Air Intelligence Agency, the movie resonated with me. Immensely.

Chart Of The Day: One Could Have Tripled One's Investment Thrice Since 2009 -- May 6, 2024

Locator: 47081INV.

And that's why the rich keep getting richer. 

 With a P/E of 18, currently pays over 5%.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

It's only make believe.

Link here.

The Coen Bros.

Cervical Cancer -- Audacious Goal; Social Security Update -- May 6, 2024

Locator: 47080ARCHIVES.

Stories that I no longer care about but which need to be posted for the archives.

Wiki: HPV. 

WSJ, May 6, 2024: eradication.

Alabama leading the way.

I was the first physician to brief the spouses (all women) of the senior leadership of the Air Intelligence Agency on the HPV that had just been approved by the FDC, 2006. It would be offered free to all military beneficiaries for whom the vaccine was approved and recommended. 

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Social Security Shape 

In better shape than this time last year.

Link here.

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The Book Page

My book for the next two weeks, from the public library: My Name Is Barbra, Barbra Streisand, c. 2023.

The New MRO Wells In Jim Creek

Locator: 47079B.

The well:

• 39983, 5,159, MRO, Rutledge 41-20H, Jim Creek, Dunn County, t2/24; cum 42K 3/24:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2024	27	20424	20417	25436	13561	12605	911
BAKKEN	2-2024	15	21454	21393	39082	13919	13807	74

Other wells on that 7-well pad, all producing and #17999 back on line:

• 39984,
• 39985,
• 17999,
• 39986,
• 39987,
• 39988,

The maps:

 

Monday End-Of-Day -- May 6, 2024

Locator: 47078B.

Updating headlines posted earlier today.

Investing:

• I'm investing as if the CVX - HES deal won't go through.
• I'm investing as if AAPL will give back all its recent gains and drop back toward support level. [I posted that early this morning. Later today: BRK will keep selling AAPL through calendar year 2024.]
• Monday night futures: flat.
  

Big investing story today: tech. Huge day for tech!

• Huge! Biggest winner? The bread-and-butter company in the tech sector: Micron.
• Palantir reported today: light guidance; up 3% for the day; holds after hours 

Big earnings story today! WMB.  Link here. Also, here.

• EPS: 59 cents vs 49 cents; a year ago: 56 cents
• an earnings surprise of 20%
• revenues: $2.77 billion, missing the estimate by 5%
• so, they brought in a lot less revenue but yet made more money per share than expected; what happened?
  

Trump headlines: what do these two headlines say to you? Both in the same day:

• facing prison sentence
• will expel 200 million migrants

War! Israel moves in on Rafah

• Biden: wait, I'm still finalizing plans to visit Columbia University

Out of touch: former CEO Howard Schultz on Starbucks.

• it's no longer about the "store experience"
• because I had to bring my car in for its annual inspection, I waited at Starbucks next door;
• the restaurant itself was "empty." There were two of us. The drive-through was busy but not as busy as I remember two years ago.
• the restaurant truly was "dead"
• it's become a drive-through kiosk -- you know, the kind where scantily clad women hand you a coffee for maybe a buck or two, not $7.
  

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.48.

Active rigs: 39.

Six new permits, #40718 - #40723, inclusive:

• Operators: Petro-Hunt (4), Oasis, Grayson Mill
• Fields: Charlson (McKenzie); Eightmile (Williams); Siverston (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Petro-Hunt has permits for four USA wells, SWSW 4-153-95, 
• to be sited between 141 FSL and 237 FSL and between 1097 FWL and 1141 FWL;
• Oasis has a permit for yet another Aune Federal well, lot 3, section 30-153-102; 
• to be sited 2546 FNL and 472 FWL;
• Grayson Mill has a permit for a Costanza well, NENE 26-150-98, 
• to be sited 970 FNL and 982 FEL;

One permit renewed:

• 28351, Formentera Operations, Grays State, SESW 36-164-101; Divide County;

One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed:

• 39983, 5,159, MRO, Rutledge 41-20H, Dunn County

Manic Monday -- May 6, 2024

Locator: 47077MONDAY.

Investing:

• I'm investing as if the CVX - HES deal won't go through.
• I'm investing as if AAPL will give back all its recent gains and drop back toward support level. [I posted that early this morning. Later today: BRK will keep selling AAPL through calendar year 2024.]

Big investing story today: tech. Huge day for tech!

• Huge! Biggest winner? The bread-and-butter company in the tech sector: Micron.
• Palantir reported today: light guidance; up 3% for the day; holds after hours 

Big earnings story today! WMB.  

Trump headlines: what do these two headlines say to you? Both in same day:

• facing prison sentence
• will expel 200 million migrants

War! Israel moves in on Rafah

• Biden: wait, I'm still finalizing plans to visit Columbia University

Out of touch: former CEO Howard Schultz on Starbucks.
it's no longer about the "store experience"

**************************
Irrational Exuberance: Lucid

1Q24 earnings:

• ticker: up during the day; down after hours
• after-hours earnings call: not as good as expected / hoped for -- but not a washout
• will allow the Prince to hold on for another year
• prior guidance: will deliver 9,000 vehicles this calendar year (2024)
• new guidance: affirming 9,000 
• numbers here
  
• EPS: interestingly enough, not reported in the CNBC story; 
• missed estimates by 22%
• but Benzinga has it; a loss of 30 cents vs estimate of a loss of 25 cents
  
• revenue: $172.7 million vs expectations of $156.99 million -- can we just call it $157 million?
• someone needs to explain how revenue exceed estimate, but estimates missed EPS by a whopping 20%;
  
• negative cash flow: $715 million -- which is almost a billion dollars
• CAPEX:
• 2023: slightly less than $1.0 billion
• 2024: forecast $1.5 billion
  

The question: how long will the Prince accept these losses?

Irrational exuberance:

Honda 2012 Mileage -- May 6, 2024

Locator: 47076HONDA.

Stats:

• gasoline: 12 cents / mile
• mileage, mostly local, very little highway: 28.6 mpg
• miles / day: 6.62

EOG Antelope-Sanish Area Waiting To Be Drilled; A Well Trending Toward One Million Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative; Managing Their Assets Brilliantly -- May 6, 2024

Locator: 47075EOG.

Look at this area -- the Antelope-Sanish may have the best wells in the Bakken, and yet look at all the permits that were canceled during the Covid era. EOG pivoted to the Permian; yet there's a lot of drilling left to be done in the Bakken.

The maps:

The producing well of interest:

• 24337, 2,519, EOG, Hawkeye 3-2413H, Antelope-Sanish, t5/13; cum 950K 3/24;

 Early production, managing their assets:

SANISH	10-2014	31	13034	12257	3269	55690	43161	9010
SANISH	9-2014	30	14109	14406	3349	50355	33802	13126
SANISH	8-2014	31	16476	16508	4166	60760	27406	32735
SANISH	7-2014	26	16956	16835	3479	60252	24858	34905
SANISH	6-2014	30	18214	18241	2846	50086	17343	32150
SANISH	5-2014	31	24017	23957	3524	65169	26116	38433
SANISH	4-2014	27	31057	30927	3828	48901	10965	37403
SANISH	3-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	2-2014	21	16165	16329	1976	37920	202	37623
SANISH	1-2014	31	24436	24815	2953	51779	415	51217
SANISH	12-2013	31	27300	27301	2940	51362	590	50772
SANISH	11-2013	30	31877	32028	3214	59465	0	59316
SANISH	10-2013	31	40483	40529	3815	71259	0	71106
SANISH	9-2013	30	43917	43941	3907	76231	0	76087
SANISH	8-2013	31	45849	46421	4712	78445	0	78292
SANISH	7-2013	31	49395	49130	6144	69907	0	69753
SANISH	6-2013	12	24333	23709	1802	3898	0	3842
SANISH	5-2013	17	14310	13379	3683	3421	0	3342
SANISH	4-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The Hess TI-T Lalim Wells

Locator: 47074LALIM.

Personal investing: today, will add to positions in --

• AVGO -- by rule
  
• QCOM -- by rule
  
• XOM -- special circumstance
• with the PXD close, XOM more than doubles its footprint in the Permian
• XOM: up 1.5% today
  
• no recommendation; see disclaimers.

The Hess TI-T Lalim wells in Tioga oil field. The Tioga area is where the North Dakota oil boom began back in the 1950s. 

This area must be the most drilled-out, explored area in North Dakota. It is "owned" by Hess. Look up "company town" in a dictionary and you will see an aerial photo of Tioga. And so I was incredibly surprised when I looked at the NDIC maps of these four new wells. The area is practically empty. Some old vertical non-Bakken wells and one old PA'd Bakken well -- but no horizontal Bakken wells in this drilling unit as far as I could see. And the surrounding area is pretty sparsely drilled also.

The wells:

• 39346, conf, Hess, TI-T Lalim-157-95-0214H-1, t11/23; cum 68K 3/24; F;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2024	31	13832	13834	23610	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2024	29	12799	12793	21441	16270	15937	333
BAKKEN	1-2024	31	11577	11505	20779	11453	10869	584
BAKKEN	12-2023	27	9364	9429	25140	10773	10459	314
BAKKEN	11-2023	26	18204	18422	46523	24805	18584	6221
BAKKEN	10-2023	2	2233	1855	1833	2209	0	2209

• 39347, conf, Hess, TI-T Lalim-157-95-0214H-4, Tioga, t11/23; cum 83K 3/24;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2024	31	13603	13597	21368	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2024	29	11992	11999	21296	15494	15182	312
BAKKEN	1-2024	31	11732	11751	26351	12304	11696	608
BAKKEN	12-2023	28	18463	18502	44167	24754	24093	661
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	25758	25703	20018	18180	13448	4732
BAKKEN	10-2023	1	1016	844	564	324	0	324

• 39348, conf, Hess, TI-T Lalim-157-95-0214H-3, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2024	20179	0
2-2024	13834	16214
1-2024	16651	20374
12-2023	18667	21990
11-2023	19772	25415

• 39349, conf, Hess, TI-T Lalim-157-95-0214H-2, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2024	14596	0
2-2024	16293	19537
1-2024	17375	21440
12-2023	21446	24843
11-2023	15450	20235

The maps:

RBN Takes A Look At Need For M&A -- May 6, 2024

Locator: 47073B.

WTI: $78.76.

Tuesday, May 7, 2024: 8 for the month; 72 for the quarter, 271 for the year
37106, conf, BR, Carlsbad 3A UTFH,

Monday, May 6, 2024: 7 for the month; 71 for the quarter, 270 for the year
39348, conf, Hess, TI-T Lalim-157-95-0214H-3,

Sunday, May 5, 2024: 6 for the month; 70 for the quarter, 269 for the year
40277, conf, BR, Carlsbad 1B UTFH,

Saturday, May 4, 2024: 5 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 268 for the year
39465, conf, Hess, EN-Bakke-157-93-1522H-6,

RBN Energy:  E&Ps' 2023 organic reserve replacement metrics weaken, spurring M&A consolidation. Archived.

U.S. E&Ps’ dramatic strategic shift from prioritizing growth to focusing on cash flow generation and shareholder returns has resulted in more earnings-call talk about dividends and share buybacks and less discussion about efforts to replenish and build their proven oil and gas reserves — a critically important factor in establishing company value. The emphasis on financial results has largely masked a sizable increase in the costs E&Ps are incurring to organically replace their reserves and a significant decrease in the volumes replaced. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll analyze the weakening in reserve replacement metrics over the last two years, a trend that has led many producers to grow their reserves through M&A. 

First, let’s define oil and gas reserves and review how they are reported by producers. As we explained in an earlier blog on reserve replacement, proved reserves are quantities of crude oil, natural gas and NGLs assumed to have at least a 90% chance of eventual recovery under existing economic and operating conditions. Oil and gas companies are mandated to report their proved reserves annually in their 10-Ks. The changes result from several factors:

• Extensions and discoveries, the most impactful, are reserves unlocked through the development of existing fields and successful exploration of new properties. These additions are funded by the company’s annual organic — or “finding and development” — capital spending. The level and effectiveness of this investment is critical to the long-term sustainability of an E&P.
• Revisions of previous estimates primarily result from changes in commodity prices — lower prices can make certain volumes uneconomic to produce, while higher realizations nudge volumes into the proved category. Poor well performance can also reduce estimates of future recoverable volumes from a field.
• Purchases and divestitures reflect the net result of M&A activity.
• Production volumes are subtracted from beginning-of-year reserves and current-year reserve additions to arrive at current year-end reserves.