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Sunday, April 21, 2024

WTI Drops Below $83; Trending Back To $82 — April 21, 2024

Locator: 47052WTI..

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The Fog Is Beginning To Clear -- Tectonic Shifts -- April 21, 2024

Locator: 47051ARCHIVES.

The fog begins to clear. Tectonic shifts:

  • geopolitical
  • EVs
  • renewable energy
  • Mideast
  • Covid
  • reproductive "health"
  • (China)

Putin, China, the US, Europe, global politics: except for its nuclear weapons, 

Russia never was much of a threat, but let's assume it was a big threat to the West. Yesterday. Fast forward to today: Putin is bleeding Russia's future. That seems important. This was posted about a year ago. A nice reminder after yesterday's US House vote to send more military aid to both Israel and Ukraine. The link.

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Fuel of the future? 

Natural gas. And oil. Two big developments this past week: 

Updates

April 22, 2024: link here.

April 22, 2024: link here.

Original Post

  • California refiners are now importing the dirtiest oil in North America -- with the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline; and, even more noteworthy,
  • TC Energy gets FERC approval for another pipeline bringing Canadian natural gas to the US west coast, specifically northern California, link here.

That second story is, in some ways, even more "delicious" than the Trans Mountain oil pipeline story. 

FERC had been asked by environmentalists and the attorneys general of Washington and Oregon to reassess its initial October 2023 approval of the project. The project has cleared required environmental reviews and was deemed necessary by FERC. The 2.7-bcfd GTN Xpress delivers Canadian-sourced natural gas from Washington through Idaho and Oregon to northern California. 

When the two big energy stories for the week are about natural gas AND heavy oil headed toward California, one can say the faux environmentalists have lost. To paraphrase Walter Cronkite, when you've lost California, you've lost the energy story.

The Biden administration can continue to put federal land off-limits to oil exploration but that won't stop the fossil fuel industry. 

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EVs

Updates

April 22, 2024: link here.

Original Post

EVs will be the wave of the future, but that future is a long way off and not in my investing horizon. Every time you read another EV story, it's bad news. Even China, for all the press, it's all hyperbole. It was reported that Tesla lowered its prices again this past week ... well, let’s put bullets to this. Tesla:

  • lowered its prices again:
  • announced no new vehicles:
  • said it was scrapping plans to bring an inexpensive EV to market; and,
  • most incredulous, said it was now pivoting to robotaxis.

Why is that incredulous? Because back in 2018 or 2020 or whenever, Elon Musk said "all" of his EVs would be robotaxis -- it was just software. What he said: we don't need to make a "new" EV -- all our EVs are "robotaxi-capable.”

So, what does it mean to convert from introducing a new, low-priced vehicle to robotaxis. It means Elon Musk is pivoting to what is most lucrative: software. 

Elon Musk is masterful at everything he does -- especially manufacturing. But these days it's all about margins, and tech is all about margins.

Manufacturing: really low margins, high CAPEX. 

EVs, Tesla: I wrote the above yesterday, Saturday. Since then, overnight, two more stories.

When you lose your base, you've lost the war. Again, paraphrasing Walter Cronkite. Link here.


From the linked article:

The proportion of Democrats buying Tesla vehicles fell by more than 60%, according to car buyers surveyed in October and November. 

Tesla has since made up ground with blue buyers, the research shows. But the dramatic drop highlights the risk hanging over Tesla with an increasingly political chief executive, at a time when electric-car makers are already struggling to appeal to many Republican buyers. 

The fall contraction coincided with Musk’s being increasingly vocal about illegal immigration, amplifying a tweet promoting antisemitic vitriol and publicly attacking Disney over his contention that the entertainment company had become too woke. (Musk has called the troublesome tweet foolish, and the Mouse House CEO has defended its positions while saying it needs to stay focused on entertainment.)

In many ways, Musk was sounding a lot like Donald Trump, embracing billionaire populism, and less like the green hero he was once celebrated as. 

XOM overtakes TSLA in market cap: link here.


Last week, cutting prices is not a sign of strength. Link here.
Tesla delivered about 387,000 units in the first quarter, down almost 9% year over year and below the lowest Wall Street estimates by about 20,000 units. 
After the disappointing first-quarter result, estimates for second-quarter deliveries were reduced to 472,000 units from 510,000, according to FactSet, up only 1% from the 466,000 units in the second quarter of 2023.

Model 3 pricing didn’t change. The base Model 3 still starts at about $39,000.

Mideast:

It speaks volumes that Iran did not escalate after Israel's response this past week.

In the big scheme of things, we didn't get much reporting / analysis what Israel achieved. 

Israel does a good job keeping secrets. 

But this is the best analysis I've come across.

Iran did not escalate for one simple reason: Israel demonstrated that it could hit Iran's nuclear facilities. 

Israel to Iran: attack again, and we will "take out" your nuclear facilities. 

What did Israel do to be able to make this statement? 

It is being reported that Israel "took out" the entire air defense of Iran's nuclear facilities.

By attacking Israel direclty, Iran gave Israel the opportunity it had sought for years: to take out Iran's air defenses around its nuclear facilities. Important? You might say so. Look at the lead story from yesterday's WSJ:  

Israel will commit suicide if it "turns out" Bibi prematurely.

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Tectonic Shifts

Putin is bleeding Russia dry.

Fossil fuel demand will continue to increase as the popularity of Greta declines.

Israel demonstrates it can take out Iran's nuclear facilities.

EVs: it's going to be a long, long slog. 

Covid: lessons learned, biogenetics and Big Pharma, economic and public health impact.

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EVs

Years ago I was part of a two-week "strategic-thinking" seminar in which a top-level Chrysler CEO participated. 

He was talking about the success of the Chrysler minivan.

In all the company's research, in addition to the revolutionary sliding door on the driver's side / street side of the van, the accessory minivan buyers were most interested in: the number of cup holders. True story.

Fast forward to EVs.

  • driving range;
  • type of charging receptacle (not whether charging stations are available -- they generally are not) but the type of charging receptacle (Tesla vs the US standard)
    • from February 12, 2024 -- that's just a couple months ago -- after decades of marketing EVs, we're still trying to solve the charging problem

Most amazing, there's a third component about which buyers don't know much but is critical nonetheless:

  • size of wheels (apparently 19-inch are the gold standard)

The size of wheels, not the number of cup holders.

Yeah, that, too, is tectonic.

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Covid

I'm still waiting for the 900-page book that covers the impact of the lockdown -- and everything else about Covid.

This is why I keep "flu" and Covid at the top of my list of links. 

The most interesting thing about the CDC link for the graph below? The fact that the CDC is no longer tracking Covid. It only tracks "seasonal flu" and to some extent "influenza-like illnesses" which would also include Covid.

Whatever happened to all those highly infectious Covid variants? Strange, huh? Update, here.

This past week: the most interesting graph. It's interactive. Spend some time looking at it. 

I've never seen anything like this, and I followed CDC "influenza" statistics religiously for 30 years while in the USAF when "seasonal flu" epidemics / pandemics were of major concern for America's military security.

NOTE: the vaccine - 

Chart of Covid-19 infections, link here:


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Reproductive "Health"

Being played out now.

Too early to tell if this is a tectonic shift and if it is, when and what its impact will be.

Early signs suggest this will be the beginning of the end of the GOP as the "silent majority" knew it. 

Millennials, GenXers, and the i-generations aren't buying what the "vocal" GOP minority is selling. Book-banning is so 1939. Abortion debate? Back to 1864.

Most thought this debate had been pretty much settled in 1960 and then "finally" settled in 1973. 

2022 was the new Arizona 1864.

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China

I don't see any tectonic shift vis a vis China. Yet. But if there is a Chinese tectonic shift, it will be in technology, specifically semiconductor chips and censorship. US tech companies could be big losers. A pivot to India and Indonesia. 

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Breaking: PGA -- We Just Saw The "Tiger" Shot Of The Year -- Sunday, April 1, 2024

Locator: 47052SPORTS.

PGA, the "Tiger" shot of the year.

  • Scheffler.
  • second hole.
  • par 5 eagle
  • from off the green -- way off the green.

Reminder: Talladega today at 2:00 p.m. I have no idea what network is "carrying" it but it does not matter. Hulu will have it.

NBA: I quit enjoying the NBA years ago when I noted that of all the sports I watch and enjoy, the referees play too big a role in the NBA to enjoy watching it any more. I assume most NBA sports fans would have disagreed. Now, today, in TWSJ, I have been vindicated. LOL.

Here's the headline:

Here's the lede:

Midway through this season, the NBA had a strange problem: Its players were too good. Teams were scoring more efficiently than ever, stars were putting up 60 and 70 points in a single game and there was absolutely nothing that defenses could do about it.

So the league set about fixing things.

In early March, basketball fans began to notice a subtle but consequential shift in the sport. Referees forgave a little more contact from defenders. They were more suspicious of star players who flopped and flailed on their way to the rim. And in a mid-March memo to teams, the NBA confirmed that its competition committee “continues to evaluate the state of offensive vs. defensive balance.”

Put simply: The NBA was making defense legal again.

If unable to connect the dots, maybe this will help. Near the end:

Even though this season’s shift didn’t involve any new rules being put on the books, coaches had spent the first part of the year clamoring for the adjustment they have lately seen.
In December, Golden State head coach Steve Kerr complained that star players were being allowed to “B.S. their way to the foul line.”
Those coaches got their wish.
In an April game, the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks set a mark that seemed unlikely a couple months before. The two teams combined to shoot just two free-throws—a record low in an NBA game. McCutchen noted that some scorers have been frustrated by the sudden disappearance of a friendly whistle. But over time, he expects that players and coaches will understand that these steps were taken for the overall health of the sport. 

Yeah, the NBA. It's all about the referees. No new rules. Simply "the league" telling the referees to start calling the game again.

Having said that, there is a rule or two, the NBA needs to change / eliminate.

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Taylor Swift for the Archives

As far as I can recall, not one group has ever released two "albums" at one time.

My hunch: several recording studios; several production companies working in parallel. If I were a Rolling Stone editor, I would want a lot of "behind-the-scenes" reporting. Many of the very best all-time hits were written in under six minutes but the producer took weeks to "release / complete" the final cut. To what extend was every "i" dotted and every "t" crossed before each individual song was considered complete?


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Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- Sunday, April 21, 2024

Locator: 47052WELLS.

Wednesday, May 1, 2024: 2 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 265 for the year

  • 40120, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 6-15-14TFH, Big Bend, npd,
  • 39526, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 3H, Burg, npd,

Tuesday, April 30, 2024: 64 for the month; 64 for the quarter, 263 for the year

  • 40233, conf, Empire North Dakota, Bufflehead 29-3A 1H, Starbuck, npd,
  • 40122, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 7-15-14TFH, Big Bend, npd,
  • 40121, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, npd,
  • 39525, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 4H, Burg, npd,
  • 39463, conf, Hess, EN-Bakke-157-93-1522H-5, Sorkness,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20241120314708
1-20241151019709
12-20231029610931
11-20231256612570
  • 39347, conf, Hess, Ti-T Lalim-157-95-0214H-4, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20241199915182
1-20241175111696
12-20231850224093
11-20232570313448
10-20238440

Monday, April 29, 2024: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter, 257 for the year

  • 39524, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 2H, Burg, npd,
  • 39346, conf, Hess, TI-T Lalim-LW-157-95-0214H-1, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20241279315937
1-20241150510869
12-2023942910459
11-20231842218584
10-202318550

Sunday, April 28, 2024: 56 for the month; 56 for the quarter, 255 for the year

  • 39523, conf, Kraken, Blue 2-35-26-2H, Burg, npd,
  • 37520, conf, BR, Mazama 2C UTFH, Elidah, npd,

Saturday, April 27, 2024: 54 for the month; 54 for the quarter, 253 for the year
None.

Friday, April 26, 2024: 54 for the month; 54 for the quarter, 253 for the year

  • None.

Thursday, April 25, 2024: 54 for the month; 54 for the quarter, 253 for the year

  • 37519, conf, BR, Mazama 2B MBH, Elidah, npd,

Wednesday, April 24, 2024: 53 for the month; 53 for the quarter, 252 for the year

  • 39869, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 4-5HSL1, Jim Creek, npd,
  • 39868, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 3-5HSL, Jim Creek, npd,

Tuesday, April 23, 2024: 51 for the month; 51 for the quarter, 250 for the year

  • 39581, conf, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-9,
  • 38562, conf, Hess, GO-HAUG-156-98-1918H-6, Wheelock,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-2024826911909
1-20241238535153
12-2023788710480
11-202355994488
10-202332300
  • 38561, conf, Hess, GO-HAUG-156-98-3031H-6, Wheelock,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20241108821818
1-20241131713411
12-202366688549
11-202384475933
10-2023506813707

Monday, April 22, 2024: 48 for the month; 48 for the quarter, 247 for the year

  • 39467, conf, Hess, EN-Erickson-LE-157-93-1003H-1, Sorkness, npd,
  • 37518, conf, BR, Mazama 2A UTFH, Elidah, npd,

Sunday, April 21, 2024: 46 for the month; 46 for the quarter, 245 for the year

  • 39883, conf, Whiting, Van Buren Federal 5103 42-36 4B, Foreman Butte, npd,
  • 39580, conf, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-9, Capa,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20241873475709
1-20242413054975
12-20232909957441
11-20233737363688
10-20231431927853

Saturday, April 20, 2024: 44 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 243 for the year

  • 40142, conf, CLR, Veigel 9-9H1, Rattlesnake Point, npd,
  • 39882, conf, Whiting, Van Buren Federal 5103 42-36 3B, Foreman Butte, npd,
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