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Saturday, April 13, 2024

It Appears Iran’s Attack On Israel Has Begun — April 13, 2024

 Locator: 47001MIDEAST.

Google: Iran Israel

Not being reported: every USAF and NATO military aircraft, including drones, between Iceland and the entire Mideast has turned off its transponder. Fact-check: FlightRadar 24.

On another note, I’ve not been able to find the aircraft generally associated with Elon Musk.

By the way, the attack on Israel looks entirely feeble and suggests it’s a political decision made in an attempt to keep the current Iranian regime in power. It seems to be a typical Mideastern (non-Israeli) response a) to save face, or b) to make a statement. But it’s certainly not T E Lawrence at Tafilah.

Later: Iran says the drones are targeting three Israeli air bases including one F-35A fighter base. My hunch: those fighters are already air-borne.  You can easily find Nevatim ("Sprouts") Air Base on a google map.


Iran's biggest worry: one of their drones actually does significant damage to that air base.

The Masters:

"While Tiger Woods commanded thousands of patrons, you could count up most of Mickelson’s traveling gallery and still have a hand free to carry a commemorative Masters cup of Domestic Beer." Phil Mickelson carded a 2-over 74 on Saturday, and now sits at 6-over on the week. — Bill Busbee.

The network did its best to not feature any of the LIV players. They tried to avoid Bryson De but obviously couldn't avoid him entirely.

Tiger? Visions of grandeur. The only question tonight is whether he finishes a full round tomorrow.

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Reminiscing

Another beautiful evening here in north Texas. Breezy and feels cooler than the reported 79°P. The high was 82°P earlier this afternoon.

Just a "typical" afternoon, doesn't really remind me of anything. 

There are two "periods" that bring back incredible memories. When I experience them I almost find myself in a fugue state: I'm walking, and then, all of a sudden, I come to a stop, literally and figuratively. 

Of the two, there is one such "period" that stands out. Here in north Texas, it occurs quite frequently, about 10:00 p.m. when it's dark but not midnight dark. The temperature is comfortable -- sweater or light jacket -- and not much wind. It's just so incredibly beautiful, I come to a stop and think about where I am, what I'm doing, and then the feelings of north Yorkshire come flooding over me.I t's such an incredible feeling, I literally freeze, some to a stop and remember my summer evenings in north Yorkshire, near the Scottish border. Wow. 

Tonight, on the balcony, late afternoon / early evening (7:01 p.m. CDT). No memories. Just a relaxing moment enjoying the breeze, knowing that in two or three months it's going to be miserably hot. The swallows are out. I'm on the shady side of the apartment complex. All shadows, any sunlight I actually see is reflected off the buildings to the north and east.

Olivia, our graduating high school senior, is at prom tonight. Beautiful, beautiful evening for a prom. Last year at this time, she was a junior and a captain of her soccer team that had just returned from the state tournaments, having taken the state championship for the first time in her high school's history. This year, her team, did not even make it to state. 

Their cross-town rivals, Colleyville Heritage did. They went to state undefeated, won their semi 4 -1 and advanced to finals, where, in an incredibly close game, they lost 3-2, in the last couple of minutes. They lost to Frisco which has won the state championship on four occasions. This would have been Colleyville's first state championship to the best of my knowledge. We used to share the fence line with Colleyville Heritage High School but now live about four long city blocks from the school. I was extremely sad for their loss. Our youngest granddaughter, Sophia, attended that school complex for a few years -- the high school, middle school, and elementary school are co-located, and Sophia was there for the first couple of years of elementary school, until a change in zoning and she ended up at a different school. Ironically, a better school. LOL.

I was devastated when Olivia's team did not advance to state soccer finals, but within 24 hours, Olivia had moved on. She was starting to receive letters of acceptance to college. More on that later, when she lets us know where she will be going, probably two weeks from now.

In a way it worked out for the best that she did not end up at state; she had so much to do the past couple of weeks, including one last time with her robotics club, of which she was the president. Her robotics team did advance to state this and although they did not win the overall "tech" award, they won the award for best team spirit, which, of course, is a direct reflection of the club president.

Back to some reading.

Update CPUs, GPUs -- Designers -- Fabricators -- April 13, 2024

Locator: 47000CHIPS.

Since Intel's 2023 10-nm chip, the following are in the wild:

  • Apple: 5 nm, Apple M2 Pro
  • Apple: 5 nm, Apple M2 Max
  • Apple: 5 nm, Apple M2 Ultra
  • AMD: 5 nm, Epyc Bergamo
  • AMD: 5 nm, Instinct M13000A
  • Apple: 3 nm, 2024 -- all systems -- desktop, laptop, smartphones
  • Apple: 2 nm, target -- 2025. 

Why is Nvidia not on this list? The above chips are microprocessors (CPUs). Nvidia is designing / selling GPUs.

  • Nvidia's market: GPUs. And at this link, only two designers and one fabricator:
    • designers: Nvidia, AMD --
      • AMD's best: 153 million transistor count; 2023
      • Nvidia's best: 208 million transistor count; 2024
    • fabricator:
      • TSMC

Inflation Watch -- Liz Sonders -- Services -- Products -- April 13, 2024

Locator: 46999INFLATION.

This link is a few days old, but still relevant.

Huge implications for fast foot restaurants and costs for customers; challenge for operators.

Apple M4 -- April 13, 2024

Locator: 46998APPLE.

Tag: 2-nm, 3-nm, 5-nm, 2 nm, 3 nm, 5 nm

Generally when Apple introduces a new chip, the company "stages" the chip's deployment in its various computers, laptop and desktops. But this is very, very unusual, to say the least.

Link here.


Look at this:
Last year, Apple introduced the M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max chips all at once in October, so it's possible we could see the M4 lineup come during the same time frame.
Gurman says that the entire Mac lineup is slated to get the M4 across late 2024 and early 2025.
The iMac, low-end 14-inch MacBook Pro, high-end 14-inch MacBook Pro, 16-inch MacBook Pro, and Mac mini machines will be updated with M4 chips first, followed by the 13-inch and 15-inch MacBook Air models in spring 2025, the Mac Studio in mid-2025, and the Mac Pro later in 2025.

The entire lineup? This suggests to me that the Apple-TSM partnership is working and that supply chain issues have resolved.

It also means that Apple-TSM is years ahead of some designers-foundries making ever "smaller" chips.

Apple is said to be nearing production of the M4 processor, and it is expected to come in at least three main varieties.
Chips are codenamed Donan for the low-end, Brava for the mid-tier, and Hidra for the top-end.
The Donan chip will be used in the entry-level MacBook Pro, the ‌MacBook Air‌ machines, and the low-end ‌Mac mini‌, and the Brava chips will be used in the higher-end MacBook Pro and the higher-end ‌Mac mini‌.
The Hidra chip is designed for the ‌Mac Pro‌, which suggests it is an "Ultra" or "Extreme" tier chip.
As for the ‌Mac Studio‌, Apple is testing versions with an unreleased M3-era chip and a variation of the M4 Brava processor that would presumably be higher tier than the M4 Pro and M4 Max "Brava" chips.
M4 versions of the Mac desktops could support as much as 512GB Unified Memory, which would be a marked jump over the current 192GB limit.
The M4 chips will be built on the same 3-nanometer process as the M3 chips, but Apple supplier TSMC will likely use an improved version of the 3-nm process for boosts in performance and power efficiency.
Apple also plans to add a much improved Neural Engine that has an increased number of cores for AI tasks.

Overview of top stories re: M4.

Reuters, link here.

For folks who follow / know / understand the Nvidia pivot, the question is this: can Apple pivot as quickly? When it comes to hardware-software integration for AI who is in the catbird seat? We should know in a few weeks.


But then look at this. I've always kept with / bought / upgraded to the lowest-cost, basic iPhone. I may break that tradition and buy the iPhone 17 when it's released.



How important is the 2-nm chip? It has its own wiki page

As such, "2-nm" is used primarily as a marketing term by the semiconductor industry to refer to a new, improved generation of chips in terms of increased transistor density (a higher degree of miniaturization), increased speed, and reduced power consumption compared to the previous "3-nm" node generation.

As of May 2022, TSMC was expected to begin risk "2 nm" production at the end of 2024 and mass production in 2025; Intel at that time forecasted production in 2024, and Samsung in 2025.

For the record, the only company reporting transistor density for the 2-nm chip is TSMC. Neither Samsung nor Intel is / are reporting transistor density for the chip. TSMC is reporting an incredible 258,700,000 transistors / mm^2.

The current published record is the Apple A17, link here: 183,044,315, which is a 3-nm, 2023 chip.

The best Intel could do as of 2023: 10 nm. Wow.

Since Intel's 2023 10-nm chip, the following are in the wild:

  • Apple: 5 nm, Apple M2 Pro
  • Apple: 5 nm, Apple M2 Max
  • Apple: 5 nm, Apple M2 Ultra
  • AMD: 5 nm, Epyc Bergamo
  • AMD: 5 nm, Instinct M13000A

Why is Nvidia not on this list? The above chips are microprocessors (CPUs). Nvidia is designing / selling GPUs.

  • Nvidia's market: GPUs. And at this link, only two designers and one fabricator:
    • designers: Nvidia, AMD --
      • AMD's best: 153 million transistor count; 2023
      • Nvidia's best: 208 million transistor count; 2024
    • fabricator:
      • TSMC

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Tech

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

Meal Kit Companies -- April 13, 2024

Locator: 46995ECONOMY.

I talked about this earlier this week and now, one day later, TWSJ has a long video on the subject.

Link here.

The target audience: single men earning "hundreds of thousands of dollars per year."  Julia Nguyan, CEO, Methodology.

The fad wears off.

The decline rate for these guys is worse than the Bakken's.

The Best Minds Gave Us Apple M4 -- April 13, 2024

Locator: 46994APPLE.

Link here.

From Yahoo!Finance "Morning Brief" today. They just don't get it.

In fact, the best minds gave us the Apple M4.

Also from "Morning Brief":

BlackRock with a 36% profit announcement in 1Q24.  Link here.

Apple's best day in a long time.

Part Time Jobs -- April 13, 2024

Locator: 46993JOBS.

Link here. Another individual who doesn't understand the current economy.

Student Loans -- April 13, 2024

Locator: 46992STUDENTLOAN.

"Finance Guy" is consistently wrong over at twitter.

Link here

Economy -- April 13, 2024

Locator: 46991ECONOMY.

Finally, someone gets it. But still no mention of RMDs, a recurring theme on the blog. And at a mandatory 4% withdrawal rate, those IRAs will continue to grow and be passed on to heirs who must deplete the IRAs within ten years. 

Link here to Carl Q.

 Nice thread on inflation. Link here.

Chicago: something tells me this is bogus or out of the norm, but if accurate, it tells me all I need to know about Chicago.

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My Favorite Branch

Our local Schwab branch hosted an eclipse event last week. Awesome. Right across the street from Trader Joe's.