Go Big Or Go Home -- Barron's -- April 8, 2024

Locator: 46957INV.

And this is without any rate cuts.

From Barron's today.

*****************
Tracking The Price of the Best Laptop 

 If it goes below $1,000 .... that would be a minus 25% ...

Two New Permits; Eleven Permits Renewed; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- April 8, 2024

Locator: 46956B.

Incredible economy:

An interesting opportunity:

• CAT hits an all-time high today, but then drops back
• pays 1.4%

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $86.43.

Active rigs: 36.

Two new permits, #40652 and #40653:

• Operator: Oasis.
• Field: Eightmile (Williams)
• Comments:
• Oasis has permits for a Lake Trenton Federal well and an Aune Federal well, with Lake Trenton Federal lot 2, section 31-153-102,
• to be sited 1782 FNL and 370 FWL; 
• and Aune Federal , lot 3, section 30-153-102, 
• to be sited 2546 FNL and 406 FWL

Eleven permits renewed:

• Hess (10): four SC-JW Hamilton permits, Long Creek, Williams; three SC-JW Flickertail permits; Ross, Mountrail County; and two RS-Nelson Farms, Ross, Mountrail County;
• Whiting: one Olson permit, Dollar Joe, Williams.

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39723, 1,484, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27FH,
• 39725, 1,773, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HT,
• 39727, 1,329, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HZ,
• 39851, 209, Oasis, Thunderhill Federal 5302 33-3 5B,

Update: Applied Digital, Ellendale, ND; AI, DataCenters Tags Added; US Data Center Average Size, 100K Sq Ft; Ellendale, ND, 340K Sq Ft -- April 8, 2024

Locator: 46955TECH.

The Big View:

• US cities and regions with highest concentration of data centers, link here.

Average size of data centers in US: 

Updates

April 8, 2024: published three days ago, over at DataCenter Dynamics -- this doesn't sound particularly good -- but then I don't understand these things ...

Applied Digital has entered an agreement with a single investor, receiving a $50 million unsecured loan for its data center in Ellendale, North Dakota.

Applied Digital, formerly known as Applied Blockchain, does not mine crypto but provides crypto and high-performance computing infrastructure to miners.

The convertible debenture bears no interest, has an original issue discount of five percent, and has a term of 54 weeks.

Ticker NASDAQ: APLD.

April 8, 2024: next big thing -- converting those empty malls to data centers.

April 8, 2024:

 ***************************
Original Post

November 15, 2023 -- Locator: 46058TECH.

Big winner in tech today: TSM. Let that sink in. Folks just don't know it yet.

Data center news:

• no update on that new data center in Williams County; dead? Maybe a reader knows.
• meanwhile, Ellendale, ND: 

Applied Digital Corp. has broken ground on its first 100-megawatt high-performance computing facility that will be located about 1 mile west of Ellendale.

The announcement was made Tuesday, Oct. 31, on Applied Digital’s website.

The facility is designed and built for artificial intelligence workloads such as generative AI, natural language processing, machine learning, rendering and traditional high-performance computing applications.

There will be 80 megawatts of IT (information technology) load but it's designed so that every rack in the building can be within 30 meters of the network core.

Meanwhile, to recap:

The MRO Sandstrom Well Is Back On Line, Goes Over 600K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- Perhaps Small Halo But If So, Subtle -- April 8, 2024

Locator: 46954B.

The well:

• 17771, A/IA/585, MRO, Jay Sandstrom USA 34-31H, Reunion Bay, t3/09; cum 542K 10/20; off line 11/20 remains off line 7/21; cum 571K 7/22; cum 591K 3/23; cum 607K 2/24;

When the well came back on line back in late 2021:

BAKKEN	5-2022	31	3405	3409	2282	4293	4087	98
BAKKEN	4-2022	27	2860	2867	2692	3193	2866	240
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	4013	4012	4234	3725	3614	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	3292	3275	3887	3955	3861	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	3868	3867	4423	5072	4960	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	3842	3806	4199	3982	3678	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	2517	2502	6891	2845	2656	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	873	866	10315	1201	1133	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	4	89	88	1086	210	104	106
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	0	0	88	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	4	109	190	17	344	207	110
BAKKEN	10-2020	24	444	478	135	1620	1186	276
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	1466	1468	661	4791	4527	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	2080	2068	946	6269	5918	45

The Enerplus "NASCAR" Pad Updated -- April 8, 2024

Locator: 46953B.

The map:  look how the April, 2024, map compares with the February, 2024, map at original post below the fold below.

The wells:

• 39341, conf, Enerplus, Stock 148-93-04A-09H, South Fork, t8/23; cum 118K 2/24;
• 39342, conf, Enerplus, Sprint 148-93-04A-09H, South Fork, t8/23; cum 119K 2/24;
• 39343, conf, Enerplus, Rally 148-93-04A-09H, South Fork, t8/23; cum 158K 2/24;
• 39344, conf, Enerplus, Pitstop 148-93-04A-09H, South Fork, t8/23; cum 163K 2/24;
  

 Original Post

Locator: 46739ERF.

Wells coming off confidential list this next week:

The wells:

• 39341, conf, Enerplus, Stock 148-93-04A-09H, South Fork,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2023	10430	10418
11-2023	23105	20284
10-2023	27121	21276
9-2023	23381	21336
8-2023	7306	6158

• 39342, conf, Enerplus, Sprint 148-93-04A-09H, South Fork,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2023	15110	14311
11-2023	17115	14583
10-2023	21273	16772
9-2023	28472	22071
8-2023	16923	7731

• 39344, conf, Enerplus, Pitstop 148-93-04A-09H, South Fork,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2023	28681	18528
11-2023	27507	16991
10-2023	28936	21930
9-2023	28494	23081
8-2023	9860	4942

• 39343, conf, Enerplus, Rally 148-93-04A-09H, South Fork,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2023	23500	23113
11-2023	25123	21613
10-2023	27074	21220
9-2023	34925	26158
8-2023	18172	8616

 The maps:

CLR Nashville Well At 650K Bbls Crude Oil -- April 8, 2024

Locator: 46952B.

CLR Nashville wells updated:

Locator: 44695B.

Four Nashville wells: one producing, three on SI/NC status:

• 31357, 1,102, CLR, Nashville 2-21H, Catwalk, 40 stages, 8.7 million lbs, t6/16; cum 517K 9/20; easily exceeding a 900,000 bbl-EUR type curve (per CLR corporate presentation, data as of 9/6/16): off line 5/20; back on line 8/20; cum 543K 7/21; cum 612K 3/23; cum 644K 2/24;
• 31358, 599, CLR, Nashville 3-21H, Catwalk, t11/16; cum 199K 9/20; off line 4/20; back on line 9/20; cum 214K 7/21; cum 244K 3/23; cum 256K 2/24;
• 31867, 1,079, CLR, Nashville 5-21H, Catwalk, t11/16; cum 318K 9/20; off line 4/20; back on line 6/20; cum 351K 7/21; cum 399K 3/23; cum 418K 2/24;
• 31868, 607, CLR, Nashville 4-21H1, Catwalk, t11/16; cum 172K 9/20; offline 11/19; remained off line through 1/20; twelve days in 2/20; off line 5/20; back on line 7/20; cum 183K 7/21; cum 206K 3/23; cum 216K 2/24;

Inflation Watch -- April 8, 2024

Locator: 46951ECONOMY.

Inflation watch: local Kroger's last week: buy two at regular price, get three additional items for free.

Two x $5.89 = $11.78 for two bags of Cheetos, one of my worst vices. LOL. Pairs with everything and anything.

$11.78 / 5 = $2.356.

$2.36 / $5.89 = 40% .... so 60% off?

*************************************
George Working On The Books

Office partner, George.

Photo by Sophia.

Morning Market -- April 8, 2024

Locator: 46950INV.

Cramer, a mixture of my comments, Cramer's comments, other -- this is my "personal take" -- may have nothing to do with reality; if any of this affects you, check other sources, do your own due diligence; I often get this stuff wrong; I'm the last person to whom you want to listen when talking investing.

• seems like a lot of talk / movement in tech all of a sudden
• first story and lengthy story: 2-nm chip; 
• US produces "zero" 2-nm chips
• AI runs on 2-nm chips 
• only one company now able to make 2-nm chips
• ready to scale
• TSM / Apple: partners
  
• TSM to get billions from CHIPS Act to build facility in Arizona
• reminder: Buffett dropped TSM like a hot potato last year after holding it for three months
• all tech companies up in pre-market except AMD; 
• QCOM, AVGO surprising strength
• S&P gainers: Micron at the top
  
• mentioned in passing by Sara Eisen in China: Micron 
• SecCommerce won't let Intel fail; incredible support for company in trouble
  
• folks need to pay attention to Jamie Dimon's comments today
  
• Sara Eisen in Beijing with Sec Yellen
• China could kill US auto industry -- self-driving EVs
• Chinese EV supply greatly exceeds demand; will dump; will sell at a loss to get market share
  

Buffett's favorite tech:

China's GDP, economy vs US:

Others:

NEOM, link here, previously posted:

***********************
Most Treasured Award

Thirty years plus a day in the USAF, my most treasured award, the "Road Runner Award of Excellence," for my service while assigned to Incirlik AB, Turkey, back in the early 1990s. 

Southern Watch. Link here.

Some have la camiseta, tengo la taza: 

WTI Recovers Overnight; Back Up -- Over $86; IDF Head Fake; A Re-Eval Of Robust Jobs Report And Fed Late To Game; Downturn In Economy Back On Table? April 8, 2024

Locator: 46949B.

Breaking, link here. CHRD up slightly at the opening.

Beautiful, beautiful day in north Texas right now: sun has no idea it's about to be eclipsed later this morning / early this afternoon.  Can you imagine the clout Celtic priests / druids had when solar eclipses occurred?

Head fake? IDF, Rafah?

Spirit? I've always maintained that when two companies announce a merger, it's very likely one or both are in financial trouble. March 4, 2024:

• One month later:

Chesapeake - Southwest Energy merger on hold: regulators. 

Boeing: another botched flight. Southwest Airlines. Likely to impact announcement. Southwest Airlines is expected to announce the launch of Dallas – Fort Worth airport service at the end of April though this could be pushed back by availability of aircraft (Boeing delays). 

Boeing CEO:

Student loan bailout: back on the table. I have no problem with student loan forgiveness.

TSMC: interesting offer from Biden administration. From Yahoo!Finance:

INTC: link here. Soon to see some interesting headlines from Intel.

Yellen / China -- back to tariffs, link here:

Personal investing:

• add to VZ position -- by rule
• debating whether to add more tech with recent TSM announcement
  
• sell all MCD -- by rule
• no recommendation
• see disclaimers

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $86.23.

Tuesday, April 9, 2024: 12 for the month; 12 for the quarter, 211 for the year
39782, conf, CLR, Thorvald 6-6H,
37471, conf, SOGC, Saetz Federal 4-36H,

Monday, April 8, 2024:10 for the month; 10 for the quarter, 209 for the year
39783, conf, CLR, Thorvald 7-6H1,
38012, conf, BR, CCU Plymouth 44-29 TFH,

Sunday, April 7, 2024: 8 for the month; 8 for the quarter, 207 for the year
39784, conf, CLR, Thorvald 8-6HSL,

Saturday, April 6, 2024: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter, 206 for the year
38973, conf, SOGC, Harris Federal 3-31H,

RBN Energy: short-side portfolio players seek to turn the tables on LNG trade. 

LNG commerce is composed of two primary models. One is the traditional point-to-point model, on which the industry was founded and still accounts for more than 60% of LNG trade. More recently, the portfolio model has emerged, pursued by upstream oil and gas majors, that would allow them to monetize their gas reserves by converting them to LNG and shipping the product worldwide in vessels under their control — an attractive strategy that also would allow them to increase their exposure in the LNG market to take advantage of international arbitrage opportunities. As such, they are always long in LNG and in the ships required to move it.

However, the portfolio model is being infiltrated by a buyer community looking to become short-side portfolio players and increasingly committing to long-term offtake agreements or FOB sales, then shipping LNG not only to meet their domestic market needs but to take advantage of regional pricing differentials. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the rise of the short-side portfolio player model and ask who might prevail in a potential clash of titans over market share and dominance.