Locator: 46900TECH.
Tech:
CEO has been concentrating on government handouts, over-promising shareholders, and bamboozling Wall Street, in general.
Five years:
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A Musical Interlude
Locator: 46898B.
JOLTS today: based on jobs report today, the economy is doing very, very well. Amazing.
All day long talking heads talk about the Fed cutting rates as many as three times this year but some talking heads suggests folks making that prediction must be living in a different world. Right now, I can't imagine the Fed seriously considering a rate cut based on current data. The purpose of a rate cut is to make sure the Fed doesn't push the economy into a recession; the Fed is not there to protect a Wall Street bull run. A single rate cut or even two would have little effect on this economy. My hunch: the Fed is thinking it better to keep five arrows in its quiver in case a geo-political event upsets the apple cart. [Geo-political event? Cue up Drudge.]Most amazing thing I've come across the past two days: how fast the US military has modernized -- I was blown away by all the Virginia-class submarines in-service and more coming on line; and then the number and capability of the F-35.
That Israeli mission to take out an "embassy" in Damascus? A perfect mission for a couple of F-35s with a pair of F-15s at altitude providing command, control, and cover for the mission.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs: 37.
WTI: $85.15.
One new permit, #40633:
Three permits renewed:
Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
39986:
Seven-well pad in an already busy area:
Well of interest:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 9 | 1038 | 1035 | 1821 | 754 | 748 | 4 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2023 | 1 | 65 | 181 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2022 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2022 | 12 | 233 | 233 | 119 | 321 | 225 | 17 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2022 | 31 | 775 | 875 | 395 | 967 | 642 | 71 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2022 | 30 | 756 | 795 | 391 | 917 | 655 | 16 |
Locator: 46896B.
This past week it was being reported that North Dakota was approaching 5 billion bbls of crude oil production from the Bakken. KFYR.
And, then, of course, my all-time favorite: Jane Nielson.
By the way: I wonder if Jane Nielson is still following the Bakken?
From CNBC, Financial Times, June 11, 2013:
Global shale resources are vast enough to cover more than a decade of oil consumption, according to the first-ever U.S. assessment of reserves from Russia to Argentina.
The U.S. Department of Energy estimated "technically recoverable" shale oil resources of 345 billion barrels in 42 countries it surveyed, or 10 percent of global crude supplies. The department had previously only provided an estimate for U.S. shale reserves, which it on Monday increased from 32 billion barrels to 58 billion.
The pace of oil and gas production gains has consistently surprised forecasters since horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, better known as "fracking", were pioneered in U.S. shale rock formations about ten years ago. Only the U.S. and Canada were producing oil and natural gas from shale in commercial quantities, the department said.
From October 7, 2010 (search "OOIP"):
Whiting's current presentation is here.
Some data points from others:
These are comments sent in by readers commenting on Q & A portion of the presentation.
- WLL says they will recover eight (8) percent of the original oil in place (OOIP)
- WLL prefers < 30 frac stages
- WLL does not care for Eco-Pad format
- In addition to four to five long middle Bakken laterals in Sanish sections, WLL putting in "wing" wells (short laterals) as well as long TFS laterals
Recovering eight (8) percent of the OOIP is a huge story; original USGS estimates of recoverable oil in the Bakken was in the range of 1 - 3 percent. (I believe those figures came from USGS but might have come from other analysts after the 2008 USGS report.)
From October 29, 2010 (some old links will be broken):
Take a look at the current ERF presentation, specifically slide 19 (ERF's slide numbered "19").
Now, see if you can find some original estimates of recoverable oil from the Bakken (in percent). If my memory serves me well, USGS back in 2008 estimated that about two (2) percent of original oil in place (OOIP) would be recoverable, based on results to date and technology at that time. If I'm wrong on that, please let know (with links).
Then, Harold Hamm, CLR/CEO, said that he thinks some folks are already recovering at a rate of eight percent of OOIP. Two percent to eight percent may not sound like all that much, but it quadruples the original estimate in volume measured in barrels.
Now we have ERF estimating as much as:
- 12 - 16% in the Fort Berthold area, ND, Bakken
- 10 -14% in the Fort Berthold area, ND, Three Forks
- 15 - 20% in the Sleeping Giant, MT, Bakken
- 10 -15% in the several fields in Saskatchewan, Canada
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Flashback: Originally Posted January 25, 2011
The 2011 post:
A lot of good information in this story by Eric Fox.
When you finish reading the notes below, you might be interested in a very good discussion going on over at the Bakken Shale Discussion Group regarding almost the very same question, but limiting the discussion to "currently recoverable Bakken/TFS oil. [By the way, I still prefer referring to the Three Forks as the TFS rather than TF, but, I do believe that Three Forks is becoming the accepted name.]
Eric Fox summarizes the current estimates of recoverable Bakken oil:
Fox provides an update of net acreage held by several Bakken players:
- CLR's CEO Harold Hamm: 20 billion barrels (in fact, he has said as high as 24 billion barrels); he includes both the Bakken and TFS in his estimates, as two separate non-communicating formations
- US Geological Survey: 3.65 billion bbls of oil; plus 1.85 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 148 million bbls of natural gas liquids (2008 Survey); their 1995 report said the Bakken had only 151 million barrels
- North Dakota's assessment: 149 billion bbls of oil in place, of which 2.1 billion is recoverable (2008); two years later, ND assessed the TFS at 20 billion barrels in place, of which 1.9 billion is recoverable
- Dr Leigh Price: Saudi Arabian estimates; estimated the Bakken could generate between 271 billion and 503 billion bbls of oil with an average of 413 billion bbls; Price said his numbers are higher because he felt the Bakken oil was trapped in that formation and had not migrated to the Mission Canyon or Madison formation; Leigh put a recoverable estimate at 50 percent, suggesting that approximately 200 billion barrels of oil could be recovered
Although net acreage is important, just as in other real estate, in the Bakken it's all about location, location, location. So, without that information, be careful how you look at these numbers. I did not realize, or had forgotten that Whiting had that amount of acreage.
- CLR: nearly 900,000
- Whiting: 579,000
- Oasis: 300,000
- BEXP: 368,000
- KOG: 72,000
- Hess: 500,000
- GeoResources: 46,000
- Marathon: 385,000
- Occidental: 200,000
- SM Energy: 81,000
I'm hoping CLR hits an even million acres just for the bragging rights. [CLR has close to 900,000 net acres in the Bakken and the Three Forks. Note: earlier I have posted about the risk of double-counting acres in the Williston Basin. To the best of my knowledge, oil companies are not doing that but watch out for it in presentations.]
Locator: 46895B.
Another article by a Bloomberg writer who simply doesn't get it. Link here.
The Dallas Fed’s survey is a fixture in the energy sector, polling about 200 oil and gas companies based in Texas, New Mexico and Louisiana about their outlooks and views on the industry. It includes anonymous comments from executives, allowing them to offer unvarnished views they may not otherwise publicly express.
The dissonance between their comments and current conditions in the oil sector reflects the industry’s frustration with a president who has championed clean energy, pushed to limit new crude development on federal lands and, most recently, froze new permits to export liquefied natural gas.
Despite all that, fossil-fuel production has surged, and many oil companies have thrived. [And the writer's point would be?}
The fact that executives remain unwavering in their criticism shows just how deep today’s political tribalism runs. [Oh, give me a break.]
Nonetheless, US oil production is forecast to keep rising, on pace to end the year at about 14 million barrels a day, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. [Actually, according to everybody. This is like saying the sun will come up in the east, according to The New York Times.]
--David Wethe, Bloomberg News
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SLB Acquisition
Link here. Charles Kennedy.
SLB, the world’s top oilfield services provider, announced on Tuesday a definitive agreement to buy smaller competitor ChampionX Corporation in an all-stock deal valued at $7.75 billion, as the energy sector consolidation extends to the oilfield services segment.
SLB and ChampionX announced the agreement whose terms stipulate that ChampionX shareholders will receive 0.735 shares of SLB common stock in exchange for each ChampionX share. At the closing of the transaction ChampionX shareholders will own around 9% of SLB’s outstanding shares of common stock.
Locator: 46894USAF.
April 2, 2024: in this post, I argued that the military-industrial complex is huge for the US economy, but just one of many components.
Updates
April 2, 2024:
I would argue the F-35A Lightning II fighters are incredibly more
challenging to build than any passenger plane Boeing is building.
April 2, 2024: Quora thread.
April 2, 2024, from January 10, 2024, from National Interest:
Original Post
The recent announcement by the Biden administration sell 25 F-35A fighters to Israel prompted a re-look at this program.
The USAF fact sheet: link here.
The wiki fact sheet: link here.
I think most folks consider the F-35A simply a "better" F-15.
But look at this. The F-15 was not "associated" with close air support (CAS). That was the role of the F-16.
This is the big takeaway for me with regard to the F-35A: the F-35A a) an air superiority fighter; and, b) tasked with close air support. I'm not sure if we ever had that before, except for the F-4 in Vietnam -- air superiority and close support, but its deficiencies in air superiority were embarrassing and ultimately led to a replacement, the F-15.
Okay, so the USAF gains one aircraft that can do all three: missiles, bombs, and guns; and both the air-to-air mission and the air-to-ground missions.
A first derivative of that double mission:
it simplifies organization and training, particularly for ground
support (mechanics, replacement parts). The US can replace the F-15, the
F-16, and the A-10 with the F-35.
Air-to-ground missiles?
But this is a much, much bigger first derivative:
NATO countries, except the US, are financially stressed and pressed and absolutely cannot afford to develop their own 21st century joint strike force aircraft. Their only option? Yup. Buy from the US -- as Israel just did.
From the USAF Fact Sheet:
Locator: 46892B.
Answer to reader's question at this post.
TESLA: crushed. Phil LeBeaux trying his best to spin this story. 387,000 delivered; street expected 457,000. Most pessimistic were expecting a low of 410,000. This is a disaster.
I have at least six stand-alone posts / essays in draft form that need to be posted, but, again, there is so much going on, it is unlikely I will get to them all today.
The F-35A Lightning II: it turns out there is much more to the story than what I wrote earlier about the F-35A. The general premise that I laid out is perhaps only 10% of the story. I posted my "general premise" either yesterday or the day before. Then about 2:00 a.m. this morning, while studying an old photograph of an F-15 taken at Bitburg, Germany back in the 1980s or 1990s, I had a hunch there was a lot more to the story. I had enough to post an essay / a stand-alone blog but decided to wait until later today. I'm glad I waited. The banner story over at Drudge today confirmed my thoughts / my hunch. More on that later when I have more time.
U.S. job openings barely changed in February, staying at historically high levels in a sign that the American job market remains strong.
The Labor Department reported Tuesday that employers posted 8.76 million job vacancies in February, up modestly from 8.75 million in January and about what economists had forecast.
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Back to the Bakken
Charles Kennedy: link here -- folks may want to go back to the original Leigh Price paper. It appears the Bakken is about to go into the third inning, or as I call it, Bakken 6.0.
WTI: $85.07.
Wednesday, April 3, 2024: 3 for the month; 3 for the quarter, 202 for the year
36082, conf, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-1615H-11,
RBN Energy: making the most of butane in the gasoline pool.
Normal butane is an important gasoline blendstock, with a great combination of high octane and relatively low cost. It also has a high Reid vapor pressure, or RVP, which is a good news/bad news kind of thing because while regulators allow higher-RVP gasoline — that is, gasoline with higher levels of butane — to be sold during the colder months of the year, they forbid its sale during the warmer months, thereby forcing butane levels in gasoline to be kept to a minimum. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, air-quality regulations and seasonal shifts in butane blending may add complexity to gasoline production and marketing, but they also create opportunities to increase gasoline supply and earn substantially larger profits through much of the year.
Locator: 46891B.
A reader had a question about #39989, the McBride well. See question / comment at this post.
The answer is simple and straightforward. The answer lies in the maps. See below.
This page is in progress. I won't get back to it until later today but there's enough information here for any Bakken aficionado to be able to answer the reader's question.
In addition to the answer to the reader's question, there are several other observations / things to learn about the Bakken by studying this map.
By the way, MRO's nomenclature helps the company keep information about a well confidential while that well is on the confidential list.
"Come, Watson! The game is afoot!"
The six-well pad:
The maps (in progress, more to be added):
The video: link here.
