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Thursday, March 21, 2024

Winter Storm -- March, 21, 2024

Locator: 46824WEATHER.

We generally have such incredibly nice weather here in north Texas this time of year, I forget that it was still winter just a couple of days ago. And I guess, they're still getting winter weather up north.

Connecting The Dots -- Absolutely Nothing About The Bakken, Investing, Or The End Of Apple As We Know It -- March 21, 2024

Locator: 46822MEASLES.

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Updates

March 24, 2024: if Disney thought Covid was bad for the park, just wait for measles. Link here.

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Updates

March 21, 2024: I had not intended to write any more about measles. Seriously. I said what I wanted to say and I thought it was over. Not measles but my "needing" to write about measles.

But, here, sitting in the car in the rain waiting for Sophia I came across an ad for a book just published by Princeton University Press. The ad piqued my interest but I couldn't find much about the book; apparently it's not yet being sold on Amazon -- I'll check again later -- I may have missed it -- and so taking my own advice, I started googling.

Twenty seconds later: Antonine Plague.

Some links:

Now, the book that caught my eye today. Many sites prior to 2024 suggest that the pandemic was smallpox. Unlikely. Genetic analysis suggests smallpox didn't arrive on the scene until later. This book lays out the argument that it was measles.

Miscellaneous:


See this link from 2018.

Re-posting:

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Measles

Folks who think Florida's response to current measles epidemic is the right way to do things need to re-read the history of measles in the US.

The vaccine took about a decade to develop, from the mid-50s to mid-60s. Not readily available until mid- to late-60s.

In the late 1950s and early 1960s, nearly twice as many children died from measles as from polio. The vaccine Enders developed was based on the Edmonston strain of attenuated live measles virus, which was named for 11-year-old David Edmonston, the Fay student from whom Peebles had taken the culture that led to the virus's cultivation. 

Nearly twice as many children died from measles as from polio. Wow. Florida's response: parents know best.

In the mid-20th century, measles was particularly devastating in West Africa, where child mortality rate was 50 percent before age 5, and the children were struck with the type of rash and other symptoms common prior to 1900 in England and other countries. The first trial of a live attenuated measles vaccine was undertaken in 1960 by the British paediatrician David Morley in a village near Ilesha, Nigeria; in case he could be accused of exploiting the Nigerian population, Morley included his own four children in the study. The encouraging results led to a second study of about 450 children in the village and at the Wesley Guild Hospital in Ilesha.
Following another epidemic, a larger trial was undertaken in September and October 1962, in New York City with the assistance of the WHO: 131 children received the live Enders-attenuated Edmonston B strain plus gamma globulin, 130 children received a "further attenuated" vaccine without gamma globulin, and 173 children acted as control subjects for both groups.
As also shown in the Nigerian trial, the trial confirmed that the "further attenuated" vaccine was superior to the Edmonston B vaccine, and caused significantly fewer instances of fever and diarrhea. 2,000 children in the area were vaccinated with the further-attenuated vaccine.

Look at the mortality rate. Florida's response: parents know what is best for their children.

The measles vaccine -- and now the MMR vaccine -- has almost no side effects; one of the safest; one of the best. Parents know best. 

The measles vaccine: perhaps one of the best vaccines ever developed --

  • 100% safe;
  • 100% effective;
  • two and done.

While typing that, CNBC had an advertisement on "women's health." Oh, give me a break. Maybe making sure little girls got their measles vaccine would be more effective. After decades of research and billions of dollars, breast cancer mortality pretty much unchanged and uterine cancer surging. 

Gotta love the anti-vaxxers.

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Today: Everybody's Reading The Blog

After posting the blog above, the following popped up today:



What A Day -- Apple Plummets --- Market Hits All-Time Records -- And After-Hours -- March 21, 2024

Locator: 46823ECON.

But, before we get started:

Now, back to regular programming: imagine what the market does when the Fed makes that first rate cut. HODL.

After hours, after another record-breaking day:

5% returns: I just mentioned this yesterday -- the paltry 5% returns. Link here.

Housing: doesn't look like these folks are expecting a recession any time soon. Link here. Contracts would have been signed a month or two earlier.


All indicators: a robust economy. Link here.

DUCs Posted; No New Permits; Seven Permits Renewed -- March 21, 2024

Locator: 46821B.

DUCs through February, 2024, posted. Link here.

WTI: $80.90.

Active rigs: 38.

No new permits.

Seven permits renewed:

DUCs -- Through February, 2024

Locator: 46820DUCS.


Bakken


Drilled

Completed

DUC

Dec-13

--

--

603

Jan-14

174

143

634

Feb-14

214

158

690

Mar-14

216

218

688

Apr-14

220

207

701

May-14

216

208

709

Jun-14

237

225

721

Jul-14

257

243

735

Aug-14

229

207

757

Sep-14

250

232

775

Oct-14

186

243

718

Nov-14

209

202

725

Dec-14

224

194

755

Jan-15

198

193

760

Feb-15

230

151

839

Mar-15

183

170

852

Apr-15

143

127

868

May-15

125

139

854

Jun-15

110

135

829

Jul-15

103

124

808

Aug-15

111

101

818

Sep-15

99

92

825

Oct-15

118

84

859

Nov-15

100

89

870

Dec-15

98

78

890

Jan-16

71

80

881

Feb-16

61

41

901

Mar-16

68

45

924

Apr-16

43

39

928

May-16

47

59

916

Jun-16

42

54

904

Jul-16

45

56

893

Aug-16

53

82

864

Sep-16

49

66

847

Oct-16

59

85

821

Nov-16

61

86

796

Dec-16

53

49

800

Jan-17

62

52

810

Feb-17

51

58

803

Mar-17

78

71

810

Apr-17

78

104

784

May-17

94

82

796

Jun-17

76

105

767

Jul-17

95

103

759

Aug-17

99

110

748

Sep-17

98

97

749

Oct-17

105

110

744

Nov-17

93

86

751

Dec-17

77

65

763

Jan-18

107

72

798

Feb-18

74

74

798

Mar-18

95

90

803

Apr-18

109

110

802

May-18

125

131

796

Jun-18

108

118

786

Jul-18

134

155

765

Aug-18

108

138

735

Sep-18

108

122

721

Oct-18

121

118

724

Nov-18

110

99

735

Dec-18

108

70

773

Jan-19

121

71

823

Feb-19

108

56

875

Mar-19

111

110

876

Apr-19

118

112

882

May-19

127

127

882

Jun-19

118

149

851

Jul-19

123

122

852

Aug-19

123

144

831

Sep-19

110

88

853

Oct-19

116

108

861

Nov-19

96

88

869

Dec-19

94

86

877

Jan-20

99

98

878

Feb-20

94

100

872

Mar-20

94

108

858

Apr-20

69

33

894

May-20

33

14

913

Jun-20

18

11

920

Jul-20

18

22

916

Aug-20

19

27

908

Sep-20

18

51

875

Oct-20

19

41

853

Nov-20

20

31

842

Dec-20

20

51

811

Jan-21

20

41

790

Feb-21

19

24

785

Mar-21

25

45

765

Apr-21

27

47

745

May-21

29

62

712

Jun-21

31

33

710

Jul-21

32

66

676

Aug-21

39

69

646

Sep-21

42

79

609

Oct-21

43

78

574

Nov-21

47

68

553

Dec-21

52

50

555

Jan-22

53

35

573

Feb-22

64

49

588

Mar-22

67

68

587

Apr-22

58

39

606

May-22

75

61

620

Jun-22

75

81

614

Jul-22

75

89

600

Aug-22

76

93

583

Sep-22

78

82

579

Oct-22

77

95

561

Nov-22

79

78

562

Dec-22

80

40

602

Jan-23

80

89

593

Feb-23

80

83

590

Mar-23

80

86

584

Apr-23

79

101

562

May-23

74

101

535

Jun-23

70

113

492

Jul-23

70

113

449

Aug-23

68

111

406

Sep-23

64

95

375

Oct-23

67

80

362

Nov-23

67

93

336

Dec-23

66

85

317

Jan-24

68

65

320

Feb-24

69

64

325