Winter Storm -- March, 21, 2024

Locator: 46824WEATHER.

We generally have such incredibly nice weather here in north Texas this time of year, I forget that it was still winter just a couple of days ago. And I guess, they're still getting winter weather up north.

Connecting The Dots -- Absolutely Nothing About The Bakken, Investing, Or The End Of Apple As We Know It -- March 21, 2024

Locator: 46822MEASLES.

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Updates

March 24, 2024: if Disney thought Covid was bad for the park, just wait for measles. Link here.

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Updates

March 21, 2024: I had not intended to write any more about measles. Seriously. I said what I wanted to say and I thought it was over. Not measles but my "needing" to write about measles.

But, here, sitting in the car in the rain waiting for Sophia I came across an ad for a book just published by Princeton University Press. The ad piqued my interest but I couldn't find much about the book; apparently it's not yet being sold on Amazon -- I'll check again later -- I may have missed it -- and so taking my own advice, I started googling.

Twenty seconds later: Antonine Plague.

Some links:

• McGill: measles, the plagued that "ruined" Rome.
• wiki link here.

Now, the book that caught my eye today. Many sites prior to 2024 suggest that the pandemic was smallpox. Unlikely. Genetic analysis suggests smallpox didn't arrive on the scene until later. This book lays out the argument that it was measles.

Miscellaneous:

See this link from 2018.

Re-posting:

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Measles

Folks who think Florida's response to current measles epidemic is the right way to do things need to re-read the history of measles in the US.

The vaccine took about a decade to develop, from the mid-50s to mid-60s. Not readily available until mid- to late-60s.

In the late 1950s and early 1960s, nearly twice as many children died from measles as from polio. The vaccine Enders developed was based on the Edmonston strain of attenuated live measles virus, which was named for 11-year-old David Edmonston, the Fay student from whom Peebles had taken the culture that led to the virus's cultivation. 

Nearly twice as many children died from measles as from polio. Wow. Florida's response: parents know best.

In the mid-20th century, measles was particularly devastating in West Africa, where child mortality rate was 50 percent before age 5, and the children were struck with the type of rash and other symptoms common prior to 1900 in England and other countries. The first trial of a live attenuated measles vaccine was undertaken in 1960 by the British paediatrician David Morley in a village near Ilesha, Nigeria; in case he could be accused of exploiting the Nigerian population, Morley included his own four children in the study. The encouraging results led to a second study of about 450 children in the village and at the Wesley Guild Hospital in Ilesha.

Following another epidemic, a larger trial was undertaken in September and October 1962, in New York City with the assistance of the WHO: 131 children received the live Enders-attenuated Edmonston B strain plus gamma globulin, 130 children received a "further attenuated" vaccine without gamma globulin, and 173 children acted as control subjects for both groups.

As also shown in the Nigerian trial, the trial confirmed that the "further attenuated" vaccine was superior to the Edmonston B vaccine, and caused significantly fewer instances of fever and diarrhea. 2,000 children in the area were vaccinated with the further-attenuated vaccine.

Look at the mortality rate. Florida's response: parents know what is best for their children.

The measles vaccine -- and now the MMR vaccine -- has almost no side effects; one of the safest; one of the best. Parents know best. 

The measles vaccine: perhaps one of the best vaccines ever developed --

• 100% safe;
• 100% effective;
• two and done.

While typing that, CNBC had an advertisement on "women's health." Oh, give me a break. Maybe making sure little girls got their measles vaccine would be more effective. After decades of research and billions of dollars, breast cancer mortality pretty much unchanged and uterine cancer surging. 

Gotta love the anti-vaxxers.

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Today: Everybody's Reading The Blog

After posting the blog above, the following popped up today:

What A Day -- Apple Plummets --- Market Hits All-Time Records -- And After-Hours -- March 21, 2024

Locator: 46823ECON.

But, before we get started:

Now, back to regular programming: imagine what the market does when the Fed makes that first rate cut. HODL.

After hours, after another record-breaking day:

5% returns: I just mentioned this yesterday -- the paltry 5% returns. Link here.

Housing: doesn't look like these folks are expecting a recession any time soon. Link here. Contracts would have been signed a month or two earlier.

All indicators: a robust economy. Link here.

DUCs Posted; No New Permits; Seven Permits Renewed -- March 21, 2024

Locator: 46821B.

DUCs through February, 2024, posted. Link here.

WTI: $80.90.

Active rigs: 38.

No new permits.

Seven permits renewed:

• CLR: Plano FIU, Baker oil field. The CLR Plano FIU wells are tracked here.
  

DUCs -- Through February, 2024

Locator: 46820DUCS.

	Bakken
	Drilled	Completed	DUC
Dec-13	--	--	603
Jan-14	174	143	634
Feb-14	214	158	690
Mar-14	216	218	688
Apr-14	220	207	701
May-14	216	208	709
Jun-14	237	225	721
Jul-14	257	243	735
Aug-14	229	207	757
Sep-14	250	232	775
Oct-14	186	243	718
Nov-14	209	202	725
Dec-14	224	194	755
Jan-15	198	193	760
Feb-15	230	151	839
Mar-15	183	170	852
Apr-15	143	127	868
May-15	125	139	854
Jun-15	110	135	829
Jul-15	103	124	808
Aug-15	111	101	818
Sep-15	99	92	825
Oct-15	118	84	859
Nov-15	100	89	870
Dec-15	98	78	890
Jan-16	71	80	881
Feb-16	61	41	901
Mar-16	68	45	924
Apr-16	43	39	928
May-16	47	59	916
Jun-16	42	54	904
Jul-16	45	56	893
Aug-16	53	82	864
Sep-16	49	66	847
Oct-16	59	85	821
Nov-16	61	86	796
Dec-16	53	49	800
Jan-17	62	52	810
Feb-17	51	58	803
Mar-17	78	71	810
Apr-17	78	104	784
May-17	94	82	796
Jun-17	76	105	767
Jul-17	95	103	759
Aug-17	99	110	748
Sep-17	98	97	749
Oct-17	105	110	744
Nov-17	93	86	751
Dec-17	77	65	763
Jan-18	107	72	798
Feb-18	74	74	798
Mar-18	95	90	803
Apr-18	109	110	802
May-18	125	131	796
Jun-18	108	118	786
Jul-18	134	155	765
Aug-18	108	138	735
Sep-18	108	122	721
Oct-18	121	118	724
Nov-18	110	99	735
Dec-18	108	70	773
Jan-19	121	71	823
Feb-19	108	56	875
Mar-19	111	110	876
Apr-19	118	112	882
May-19	127	127	882
Jun-19	118	149	851
Jul-19	123	122	852
Aug-19	123	144	831
Sep-19	110	88	853
Oct-19	116	108	861
Nov-19	96	88	869
Dec-19	94	86	877
Jan-20	99	98	878
Feb-20	94	100	872
Mar-20	94	108	858
Apr-20	69	33	894
May-20	33	14	913
Jun-20	18	11	920
Jul-20	18	22	916
Aug-20	19	27	908
Sep-20	18	51	875
Oct-20	19	41	853
Nov-20	20	31	842
Dec-20	20	51	811
Jan-21	20	41	790
Feb-21	19	24	785
Mar-21	25	45	765
Apr-21	27	47	745
May-21	29	62	712
Jun-21	31	33	710
Jul-21	32	66	676
Aug-21	39	69	646
Sep-21	42	79	609
Oct-21	43	78	574
Nov-21	47	68	553
Dec-21	52	50	555
Jan-22	53	35	573
Feb-22	64	49	588
Mar-22	67	68	587
Apr-22	58	39	606
May-22	75	61	620
Jun-22	75	81	614
Jul-22	75	89	600
Aug-22	76	93	583
Sep-22	78	82	579
Oct-22	77	95	561
Nov-22	79	78	562
Dec-22	80	40	602
Jan-23	80	89	593
Feb-23	80	83	590
Mar-23	80	86	584
Apr-23	79	101	562
May-23	74	101	535
Jun-23	70	113	492
Jul-23	70	113	449
Aug-23	68	111	406
Sep-23	64	95	375
Oct-23	67	80	362
Nov-23	67	93	336
Dec-23	66	85	317
Jan-24	68	65	320
Feb-24	69	64	325