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Wednesday, March 20, 2024

A Ten-Well MRO Selmer Pad -- SWSE 11-145-94, Bailey Oil Field

Locator: 46817B.

Ten new MRO permits, #40609 - #40618, inclusive, March 20, 2024

  • Operator: MRO 
  • Field: Bailey (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for ten wells, SWSE 11-145-94; 
      • to be sited 593 FSL and between 1510 FEL and 1910 FEL: Selmer, Sneve, Severson, Betts, Foss, Elliot, Zwenke, Rocky, Eubanks, and Purrier

The wells:

  • 40609, Selmer 21-14H,
  • 40610, Sneve 31-14TFH,
  • 40611, Severson 31-14H,
  • 40612, Betts 24-11H,
  • 40613, Foss 24-11TFH,
  • 40614, Elliot 34-11TFH,
  • 40615, Zwenke 34-11H,
  • 40616, Rocky 44-11TFH,
  • 40617, Purrier 44-11H, 
  • 40618, Eubanks 44-11TFH,

Other wells in the drilling unit:

  • 17875, 608, MRO, Lily 24-11H, Bailey, t7/09; cum 231K 1/24;
  • 16582, AB/334, MRO, Knutson 21-2H, Bailey, t10/07; cum 155K 7/22;

Back To The Bakken -- Tell Me Again, Things Are Slowing Down In The Bakken -- Twelve New Permits -- March 20, 2024

Locator: 46816B.

WTI: $81.68.

Active rigs: 40.

Twelve new permits, #40609 - #40620, inclusive:

  • Operator: MRO (10); Koda Resources (2)
  • Fields: Bailey (Dunn County); Fertile Valley (Divide County:
  • Comments:
    • Koda Resources has permits for two Amber wells, SESE 13-160-103; 
      • both to be sited 410 FSL with one 1081 FEL and the other 1046 FEL:
    • MRO has permits for ten wells, SWSE 11-145-94; 
      • to be sited 593 FSL and between 1510 FEL and 1910 FEL: Selmer, Sneve, Severson, Betts, Foss, Elliot, Zwenke, Rocky, Eubsnks, and Purrier

Five permits renewed:

  • Enerplus (3): Quartzite, Marble, and Geneiss, in Moccasin Creek, Dunn County
  • Liberty (2): a Casey permit in Burke County, North Tioga oil field; and, an Oliver permit in Burke County, Gros Ventre oil field

Enerplus Danielle Wells

Locator: 46815B.. 

The Enerplus Danielle wells.

Six new permits, #440603 - #40608, inclusive, permits, March 19, 2024:

  • Operator: Enerplus
  • Field: Little Knife (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • Enerplus has permits for six Danielle wells, SWSE 12-145-97, 
      • to be sited 292 FSL and between 2212 FEL and 2392 FEL;

A well of interest:

  • 18334, 1,343, Enerplus, Danielle 12-1H, Little Knife, t2/10; cum 243K 1/24; stimulated 2/18/20; 35,937 (no typo) bbls; proppant, 1,633,364 lbs (no typo); cased hole.

The Market After JPow Says No Change In Fed Rate -- March 20, 2024

Locator: 46814INV.

Updates

Later, 2:37 p.m. CDT: S&P 500 crosses 5,200 for the first time ever. And $7 trillion on the sidelines.

  • all indices rise 1% with the Russell rising 2%
  • a record triple record close
    • Russell 2,000 doing particularly well
    • Dow up 365 points; now trading near 39,500
    • NASDAQ up 190 points
    • truly incredible
  • same ole buzz words being used by talking heads: stagflation; it gets tedious
  • JPow: the jobs data no longer matters; it's all about that 2-handle on inflation 
  • stickiness of inflation: housing; simply can't build enough houses --

Original Post

Most important data point: Fed rate increase remains off the table.

  • three rate cuts this year -- that's the consensus -- 
  • three rate cuts in a presidential election year? Not gonna happen.
  • if they get the 75 basis point cut this year, the only way it happens: one 25-basis point cut before the election and a 50-basis point cut after the election ... unless ....

GDP: Fed boosts GDP from 1.4 to ... drum roll .. 2.1

Market: all indices improve significantly; all indices solidly green. My portfolio which had been "red" turned to green; turned green on a dime. Amazing! [Later, during the JPow press conference, the market surges.]

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple

So, let's see what AAPL is doing after the Fed decision.

Ticker AAPL: unchanged; 0.5% on the upside. Whoo-hoo. Trending toward $177. [Later, wow, during the JPow press conference, AAPL up nicely, up $1.87, and now trending toward $178.] [Later, AAPL up over $2.00 and now trading above $180. This is truly remarkable.] [AAPL reportedly to be sued by DOJ for antitrust; shares drop over $2 / share after hours. If so, easy come, easy go.]

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Best Shoe Product 

Hands-free Skechers slip-ons. Just saying

Southern Surge -- Immigration -- A $7-Trillion Gift -- March 20, 2024

Locator: 46813IMMIGRATION.

From a while ago, link here. Note how far Biden moved the unemployment rate to a better number over the last three years (his first year numbers were "Trump's numbers").

The $7-trillion gift.


Link here.



Those states that best manage the new immigrants will do best.

GDP NOW Drops To 2.1 — March 19, 2024

Locator: 46812ECON.

Economy keeps surging. Link here.


Housing on a tear?
Link here.

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EIA Weekly Petroleum Repor

Link here.

  • US crude oil in storage: a decrease of 2.0 million bbls drops inventories to 445.0 million bbls, about 3%  below the five-year average
  • imports: 2.0% more than same period last year
  • refiners: a lower-than-normal 87.8%
  • distillate inventories are in great shape; only 5% below the five-year average
  • jet fuel product supplied down 02% compared to same period last year

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Tech

Tik Tok: link here.

AAPL: link here. All that negative talk for Apple and China? Not so fast. It looks China ops were ahead of the curve.

INTC:

  • is down 21% over past five years
  • CEO has spent last three years lobbying White House for financial incentives
  • yesterday: it was announced that INTC is in line for $8.5 billion in grants for sites in four states
    • Ohio, Oregon, New Mexico, Arizona 
  • CEO says that's not enough if US wants to re-gain bragging rights to global chip production
  • ticker today: up 15 cents; up 0.36% today
  • perhaps this is why -- $8.5 billion won't go far on a $100-billion spending spree, link here.
    • and, it's not going to happen overnight
    • five-year turnaround program
    • goal: to have 2-nm chips
    • TSM / Apple already at the 2-nm threshol
    • market caps:
    • Nvidia: $2 trillion
    • INTC: $175 billion

Samsung

  • soars more than 5%; link here.
  • Nvidia says it is considering Samsung chips for its GPUs

Dueling headlines:

SCCO: up almost a percent today; copper near record high.

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The Market

The market: not a "Fed-driven market." -- Senior analyst, CNBC

Link here for GDP Now. At 2.1 on March 19, 2024.

Supply chain inflation. Exactly what I said yesterday in the feature commentary — even the “80%.” What a great blog.

Economy keeps growing; complicates the Fed’s decision. And that’s a problem? Oh, give me a break.

Moving! Suncor — TMX — China. It’s happening.

Dividend watch: JPM to raise dividend second time in past year after notching record profit. CEO complains about economy and banking risks. Needs to be fact-checked. 

Chipotle (CMG) up 5%: announces a 50-1 split.

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Dueling Headlines

Reuters:

TWSJ:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $81.89. After today's weekly EIA report

Thursday, March 21, 2024: 122 for the month; 181 for the quarter, 181 for the year

  • None.

Wednesday, March 20, 2024: 122 for the month; 181 for the quarter, 181 for the year

  • 40053, conf, Oasis, K2 Holdings 5401 11-31 2B,
  • 39899, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 3422-1BH,
  • 39898, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 3422-2BH,
  • 38098, conf, BR, Stafford 12-34TFH,

RBN Energy: making the case for deepwater crude export projects.

With many years gone by and many millions of dollars spent, the deepwater crude oil export projects under development along the U.S. Gulf Coast are finally getting close to receiving their regulatory green light. These projects have sparked commercial and wider market interest because of the many benefits they may provide — including the ability to fully load the biggest tankers, the Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) capable of taking on 2 MMbbl, which could contribute to lower per-barrel shipping costs. In today’s RBN blog, we kick off an offshore oil terminal series, starting with the case for constructing at least one of the export projects.

Saudi, US, And Oil Production -- March 20, 2024

Locator: 46811OIL.

US Oil:

Link here. One of my favorite graphs. It's been a long time since we've seen this graph updated by the EIA. I wonder if folks see in this chart what I'm seeing?


If I'm reading this correctly, Saudi Arabia's production in the last ten years peaked at barely 10 million bopd in 2018 and by 2019 already on a declining slope. At low volume, 2020 and 2021, the years of the plague.

Saudi Arabia And AI -- March 20, 2024

Locator: 46810AI.

Tag: Saudi AI

Saudi Arabia "fences off" $40 billion for AI. Yeah, SA has a lot of money sloshing around.

Look at that: "... potentially become the largest player in the hot market (AI)."

From The New York Times, Maureen Farrell and Rob Copeland:

The government of Saudi Arabia plans to create a fund of about $40 billion to invest in artificial intelligence, according to three people briefed on the plans — the latest sign of the gold rush toward a technology that has already begun reshaping how people live and work.

In recent weeks, representatives of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund have discussed a potential partnership with Andreessen Horowitz, one of Silicon Valley’s top venture capital firms, and other financiers, said the people, who were not authorized to speak publicly. They cautioned that the plans could still change.

The planned tech fund would make Saudi Arabia the world’s largest investor in artificial intelligence. It would also showcase the oil-rich nation’s global business ambitions as well as its efforts to diversify its economy and establish itself as a more influential player in geopolitics. The Middle Eastern nation is pursuing those goals through its sovereign wealth fund, which has assets of more than $900 billion.

Officials from the Saudi fund have discussed the role Andreessen Horowitz — already an active investor in A.I. and whose co-founder Ben Horowitz is friends with the fund’s governor — could play and how such a fund would work, the people said. The $40 billion target would dwarf the typical amounts raised by U.S. venture capital firms and would be eclipsed only by SoftBank, the Japanese conglomerate that has long been the world’s largest investor in start-ups.

Remember, Saudi Arabia:

  • May 7, 2022: announced -- Saudi Arabia makes $6 billion investment in Lucid. 
    • will also invest $32 billion in mining the desert for rare earth metals. 
  • April 2, 1997: Saudi prince buys 5% stake in Apple for $115 million, link here.
    • 5% of $3 trillion = $150 billion

TikTok: it's all about the software.