GDP Now And Back To The Bakken -- March 14, 2024

Locator: 46762B.

GDP Now, link here, as of March 14, 2024: 2.3. Down from 2.5 on March 7, 2024.

Goldilocks, not a gilded age, except for some. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $81.26. 

• There was a tepid response for publicly traded oil companies -- probably because we've seen this before; if WTI tends to trend higher and if that lasts into the summer, and if there is no recession, equities in oil companies should do very well. But, wow, that's a lot of "if's." I counted three.
  
• PSX hit a 52-week high today as did MPC and Valero.
  
• with oil about to surge (?), I never would have expected that
  

Active rigs: 39.

Five new permits, #40584 - #40588, inclusive:

• Operators: SOGC (Sinclair)(3); Neptune Operating (2)
• Fields: Mary (Dunn County); Elk (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• SOGC has permits for three wells in NESW 31-147-97: 
• Bighorn, to be sited 2278 FSL and 1759 FWL; 
• the two Harris wells will be sited at 2273 FSL and 1799 FWL; and, at 2267 FSL andd 1838 FWL:
• Neptune Operating has permits for two Simpson wells, SESW 32-152-102; 
• both will be sited 466 FSL with one 1336 FWL and the other 1369 FWL;

Six permits canceled:

• Oasis: five Pederson permits in McKenzie County, and one MHA permit in Dunn County;

Illinois Health Care -- March 14, 2024

Locator: 46761ARCHIVES.

Adobe: after hours, plummets, down 10%. Has never been of any interest to me.
Ulta: great report; stock down almost 6% after earnings reported. Has never been of any interest to me.

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Illinois and Immigrant Health Care

Lousy headline, from The Chicago Tribune:

Much better headline, unfortunately, from Fox News, and more states will follow:

Data points:

• population, Illinois:
• 13 million, if this is individuals, then perhaps 13 / 2 = 6.5 million households (I don't know; a wag) (see this site for better numbers)
  
• new law:
• illegal immigrants and non-citizen green-card holders who have been in theUS for less than five years: no longer covered by a pair of the state's health insurance programs beginning April 1, 2024
• but they will be eligible for a trifold
• number of individuals about whom we are talking
• 6,000 to lose coverage
• estimated 98,500 enrollees, but in FY 24, over 120,000 have signed up
• 1.22 x 98,500 = 120,000
  
• costs
• original cost estimated: $220 million
• revised: $880 million above that = $1.1 billion
• "final": earmarked $550 million for FY24; "this year," beginning July 1, 2024:  $440 million from the state's general fund has been proposed for the program
• the state budgeted $550 million for the programs last year, and Governor Pritzker is proposing $440 million for them during the fiscal year that begins July 1, 2024. During a meeting before the Joint Committee on Administrative Rules on Tuesday, Healthcare and Family Services chief of staff Dana Kelly said removing the designated group recipients from the two programs would save a little over $13 million.
• per capita (all numbers rounded, some significantly)
• $13 million / 6.5 million households: a savings of $2 / household;
  
• $220 million / 6.5 million households: $35 / year
• $550 million / 6.5 million households: $85 / year
• $440 million / 6.5 million households: $70 / year
• $1.1 billion / 6.5 million households: $170 / year = $14 / month
• $500 million / 120,000 = $4,000 per enrollee
• other data points:
• 6,000 / 120,000 = 5%

The usual disclaimers apply. I'm doing this simply to help me put this in perspective. 

Director's Cut -- January, 2024, Data

Locator: 46760CUT.

Pending. Will be released at 3:00 p.m. CDT later today.

The Directors Cut page at the NDIC. 

MRO Wells In Four Bears Updated -- March 14, 2024

Locator: 46759MRO.

 Original Post Updated

Wells of interest:

• 19251, 406 (no typo), MRO, Quale USA 31-20H, t2/11; cum 357K 6/21; cum 370K 1/24; a jump in production back in 3/20;
  
• 36393, 5,281, MRO, Yesenko USA 11-21TFH, t9/19; cum 407K 6/21; cum 423K 1/24;
  
• 36394, 3,822, MRO, Yellow Bull USA 14-16H, t9/19; cum 321K 6/21; cum 333K 1/24; was off line 6/23 and 7/23;
  
• 40160, drl/conf, MRO, Susie USA 14-20H, Four Bears,
• 40161, drl/conf, MRO, Robertson USA 14-20TFH, Four Bears,
• 40162, drl/conf, MRO, artar USA 13-20H, Four Bears,
• 40163, loc, MRO, Emma USA 13-20TFH, Four Bears,
• 40164, loc, MRO, Murray USA 13-20H, Four Bears,
• 40165, loc, MRO, Stout USA 13-20TFH, Four Bears,
• 40166, drl/conf, MRO, Harrison USA 12-20H, Four Bears,
• 40167, drl/conf, MRO, Vondall USA 12-20TFH, Four Bears,
• 40168, drl/conf, MRO, Andie USA 12-20H, Four Bears,
• 40169, drl/conf, MRO, Lawson USA 12-20TFH, Four Bears,
• 40170, drl/conf, MRO, Star USA 11-20H, Four Bears,
  

The updated map:

 Original Post

Locator: 45497B. 

 Wells of interest:

• 19251, 406 (no typo), MRO, Quale USA 31-20H, t2/11; cum 357K 6/21;
• 36393, 5,281, MRO, Yesenko USA 11-21TFH, t9/19; cum 407K 6/21;
• 36394, 3,822, MRO, Yellow Bull USA 14-16H, t9/19; cum 321K 6/21;

Note: jump in production, #19251, above, in 2019, production:

BAKKEN	5-2020	31	5455	5526	1859	6676	5625	556
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	7035	7024	2551	8987	7780	631
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	8952	8846	3510	11451	9651	1113
BAKKEN	2-2020	20	6045	5927	2941	7207	5646	1117
BAKKEN	1-2020	1	10	45	0	32	0	31
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	3	83	158	15	93	0	70
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	1020	921	202	1439	0	1188
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	998	984	203	1380	23	1113
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	1050	1089	216	1518	0	1265

New permits for oil and gas wells in this same section, to be sited SWNW in section 20-152-93, running from west to east under the river/lake, daily activity report, August 28, 2023.

• 40160, loc, MRO, Susie USA 14-20H. Four Bears,
• 40161, loc, MRO, Robertson USA 14-20TFH. Four Bears,
• 40162, loc, MRO, artar USA 13-20H. Four Bears,
• 40163, loc, MRO, Emma USA 13-20TFH. Four Bears,
• 40164, loc, MRO, Murray USA 13-20H. Four Bears,
• 40165, loc, MRO, Stout USA 13-20TFH. Four Bears,
• 40166, loc, MRO, Harrison USA 12-20H. Four Bears,
• 40167, loc, MRO, Vondall USA 12-20TFH. Four Bears,
• 40168, loc, MRO, Andie USA 12-20H. Four Bears,
• 40169, loc, MRO, Lawson USA 12-20TFH. Four Bears,
• 40170, loc, MRO, Star USA 11-20H. Four Bears, 

Maps:

 

Investing -- March 14, 2024

Locator: 46758INV.

Link here. 

Apple Update -- March 14, 2024

Locator: 46757AAPL.

Link here. How could Apple use DarwinAI?

Link here.

Link here.

Link here.

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The Book Page

The book this week:

The Road Not Taken: Edward Lansdale and the American Tragedy in Vietnam, Max Boot, c. 2018.

Brings me to this website: "Foreign Correspondent."

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The Movie Page

Absolutely the right day to watch Poor Things again. 

Emma Stone, Oscar for best actress. 

She really did seem stunned at the Oscars. 

Definitely not one for the squeamish or those looking for a G-rated movie.

Another review, note source.

Rivian Update -- March 14, 2024

Locator: 46756EVS.

A panelist actually compared Rivian to Tesla, as a "valid" competitor. On what planet is that panelist living?

Rivian.

What investors are doing:

What traders are doing:

US Electric Power -- And The Grid -- And Policy -- March 14, 2024

Locator: 46755GRID.

Link here.

If you have time for just one "energy" article today, this is it.

Did anyone not see this coming? The next nominees for the Geico Rock Award might be Brad Plumer and Nadja Popovich.

Something unusual is happening in America. Demand for electricity, which has stayed largely flat for two decades, has begun to surge.

Over the past year, electric utilities have nearly doubled their forecasts of how much additional power they’ll need by 2028 as they confront an unexpected explosion in the number of data centers, an abrupt resurgence in manufacturing driven by new federal laws, and millions of electric vehicles being plugged in.

Many power companies were already struggling to keep the lights on, especially during extreme weather, and say the strain on grids will only increase. Peak demand in the summer is projected to grow by 38,000 megawatts nationwide in the next five years, according to an analysis by the consulting firm Grid Strategies, which is like adding another California to the grid.

“The numbers we’re seeing are pretty crazy,” said Daniel Brooks, vice president of integrated grid and energy systems at the Electric Power Research Institute, a nonprofit organization.

In an ironic twist, the swelling appetite for more electricity, driven not only by electric cars but also by battery and solar factories and other aspects of the clean-energy transition, could also jeopardize the country’s plans to fight climate change.

These are the only options and nuclear is not one of them:

• US: natural gas
• Europe: natural gas and coal
• China: natural gas and lots of coal
• emerging nations: lots of coal

More from the linked article

To meet spiking demand, utilities in states like Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia are proposing to build dozens of power plants over the next 15 years that would burn natural gas. In Kansas, one utility has postponed the retirement of a coal plant to help power a giant electric-car battery factory.

Burning more gas and coal runs counter to President Biden’s pledge to halve the nation’s planet-warming greenhouse gases and to generate all of America’s electricity from pollution-free sources such as wind, solar and nuclear by 2035.

“I can’t recall the last time I was so alarmed about the country’s energy trajectory,” said Tyler H. Norris, a former solar developer and expert in power systems who is now pursuing a doctorate at Duke University. If a wave of new gas-fired plants gets approved by state regulators, he said, “it is game over for the Biden administration’s 2035 decarbonization goal.”

Some utilities say they need additional fossil fuel capacity because cleaner alternatives like wind or solar power aren’t growing fast enough and can be bogged down by delayed permits and snarled supply chains. While a data center can be built in just one year, it can take five years or longer to connect renewable energy projects to the grid and a decade to build some of the long-distance power lines they require. Utilities also note that data centers and factories need power 24 hours a day, something wind and solar can’t do alone.

Putting this in perspective:

Many worry the grid won’t keep up.

PJM Interconnection, which oversees the nation’s largest regional grid, stretching from Illinois to New Jersey, is now expecting an additional 10,000 megawatts of demand by 2030 that wasn’t forecast last year. That’s akin to adding another New York City to the system.

“To see that come on all of the sudden, even for a system as big as ours, that’s significant,” said Ken Seiler, who leads system planning for PJM.

Akin to adding another NYC to the system.

And then this from Elon Musk and Barron's, link here:

Again, it's the grid. Gonna need a lot of blue collar workers to put up those transmission grids.

Fortunately we have a huge labor pool surging across the southern border -- we're gonna need that labor.

Don't Know Where The Market Is Headed, But On A Down Day In The Early Going, AAPL Up 1.5%; Up $2.61; Trading At $173.79 -- March 14, 2024

Locator: 46754INV.

Thinking big: if the pulls this off -- just incredible. This is the difference between those who can think big, and those who can think outside the box, and those that cannot do either.

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Saudi

Thinking big, also, link here.

Thursday -- Back To The Bakken

Locator: 46753B.

WTI: up 1.71%; up $1.36; trading at $81.05.

Friday, March 15, 2024: 115 for the month; 174 for the quarter, 174 for the year
39247, conf, Whiting, S-Bar Laurel 5393 34-1 4B,
38101, conf, BR, Stafford 11-34MBH,

Thursday, March 14, 2024: 113 for the month; 172 for the quarter, 172 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: trading evolves as US crude exports secure place in global.

As U.S. crude oil expands its foothold across the world, the markets that trade it have undergone some fundamental changes. Since the onset of the pandemic almost four years ago, these changes have included the shortening of the loading-date range for crude oil cargoes marketed along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Price reporting agencies (PRAs) like Argus have responded, launching crude oil assessments that reflect a narrower loading window. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at the changes and the new assessments Argus has rolled out to help crude oil traders manage their market exposure.

Before we discuss Argus’s initiatives, let’s recap some of what was happening in the oil markets during the early days of COVID-19. In early spring of 2020, Russia and Saudi Arabia were locked in a price war that resulted in the Saudis shipping out massive quantities to customers globally. Around the same time, market participants were taking stock of the bleak demand outlook from the widespread pandemic lockdowns. It was a perfect storm for the market — a supply glut plus softening consumption — that sent benchmark oil prices plunging, including the infamous brief trip for NYMEX crude oil futures into negative territory. Short of shutting in production, storing unsold oil became the best option for producers, who had no clear indication of when governments would remove COVID restrictions that would resuscitate demand.

WTI Breaks $81 — Pie Day — PGA — The Players Without The Players — March 14, 2024

Locator: 46753B.

Updates

Later, 1:49 p.m. CDT: inflationary pressures persist.

Later, 1:33 p.m. CDT: and this was before today's CPI data. Ouch. Link here.

Later, 11:56 a.m. CDT: on the "Half-Time Report," CNBC, folks are starting to talk about the possibility of a rate hike; senior CNBC analyst says too early to talk about; long way from a rate hike. But.

Original Post

SpaceX and WTI both "up" nicely before noon. Smiling faces. Sometimes.

SpaceX's Starship rocket, designed to eventually send astronauts to the moon and beyond, completed nearly an entire test flight on its third try on Thursday, making it farther than before through a cruise in low orbit but was destroyed during atmospheric re-entry, the company said.

SpaceX Starship launches successfully:

• notches records / milestones on path around earth; simply amazing;

All major indices green: at the open, but wavering; 

• tea leaves — market could close lower today; or, the market could have another great day; tea leaves soggy; unhelpful at the moment; energy-weighted portfolios should do well;
• indices turn red half-hour after opening;

WTI: up 1.71%; up $1.36; trading at $81.05. [Later: $81.25.]

• as soon as WTI hit $81, CVX went green, jumping a $1.10 from the morning's low.

Economy: 

• retail sales surge; less than expected but huge jump from prior month (January);
  
• inflation way down year/year; core PPI, 2.0% vs 1.9% forecast (hoped for?); isn't the Fed's magic number, 2.0%?
• some are asking: is the entire inflation number due to housing?
  
• tea leaves: Apple will continue to be able to pay savers 4.5%;
• cherry on top: WTI trending toward $81

Market: at opening, market likes the reported numbers.

CNBC: economic numbers this morning — a nothing-burger: five minutes after numbers released, talk on CNBC — 

• US Steel;
• Boeing
• Macy’s
• no talk about the numbers or the Fed
• Dick’s Sporting Goods: surges — tells me all I need to know about economy
• Family General / Dollar General: struggling; closing 945 stores; we know what that means:
• Nvidia - Oracle partnership;