Politics: "the GOP" needs to decide now whether it's better to have Trump back in office or start working for another outcome. For Trump to get back in office there's a lot of work that needs to be done.
The Pause: Qatar is taking advantage of Biden's US LNG export facility permitting pause. Folks ignoring the pause have no idea how fast global commerce is moving. Link here.
Chord Energy: The combined company is expected to be a premier operator in the Williston basin in North Dakota, with about 1.3 million net acres and 287,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in production.
after merger, a premier operator in the Williston basin in North Dakota, with about
1.3 million net acres and 287,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in
production.
At Daytona last week, they at least waited to lap six.
The biggest crash in Atlanta's NASCAR history.
This is not good for either NASCAR or the individual drivers. Maybe NASCAR drivers need a bit more training on strategy and the virtue of patience.
Sponsored by "Toyota -- let's go places."
The only place thirteen cars / racers are going today is to the garage.
************************** Cash Back On Credit Cards
I'm still "bothered" by Nicole's WSJ article with regard to Amazon some weeks ago.
Even without cash back with the Amazon credit card, Amazon's annual fee is still a great deal. As it is, my cash back will more than cover the annual fee -- several times over. I order books from Amazon on a regular basis and generally I don't pay anything for them, using cash back.
And, younger readers won't recall / know that years ago "all" credit cards carried annual fees. Now, almost all credit cards come with no fee and even have huge cash perks. Only the elite pay fees for their credit cards. The Amazon credit card I use has no fee.
Form the linked article -- it's been two years since the Fed starting raising rates. Holy mackerel. Two years and the economy seems stronger than ever.
Not so fast, Goldilocks.
The past few months have seen the soft-landing hypothesis surge from behind and overtake recession as the consensus economic outlook.
Inflation has receded in the face of the Federal Reserve’s massive assault on interest rates.
Yet, paradoxically, employment has remained robust, with lots of new jobs created and layoffs near cyclical lows. Corporate earnings have been reasonably strong.
I know what the Goldilocks deniers are saying right now: Rate hikes don’t work overnight. They take time to stifle the economy. But it has been 700 nights and counting since the first increase, in March 2022. So, maybe Goldilocks deserves to take a bow (a victory porridge?) as the soft landing seems to be all around us, with recession in the rearview mirror.
That said, there’s another alternative, one that is definitely not consensus but seems to be accumulating more and more evidence in its favor. What if the economy—already defying economic theory by surviving in the face of sharply higher rates—is actually getting stronger?
That’s admittedly an odd thing to posit after two years of interest rate hikes. But as crazy as it sounds, evidence is starting to pile up for the acceleration hypothesis.
First, there are the “big” data points, like unemployment and the stock market. The change in nonfarm payrolls
in December’s report was the strongest since September. January’s was even stronger.
The stock market, widely seen as a mechanism that discounts future growth, is up over 20% from late October to mid-February.
And much more at the link.
I call this the "touch and go" scenario and have called it that for at least a year.
I agree with Harold Hamm. No time for negative talk. It's "damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead." LOL. Speaking of which, I think Harold Hamm has passed the baton to Chord (Oasis,Whiting, and now Enerplus).
I better put in the disclaimer.
Disclaimer: this is not an
investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career,
travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think
you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
Goldman Sachs is upbeat about the economy this year. Its economists see healthy growth of 2.3%, unemployment staying below 4%, and the probability of recession at just 15%—all more optimistic than the consensus. And they see inflation, excluding food and energy, continuing to fall, to a little over 2% (using the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure) by year-end.
Forecasts are a dime a dozen. Why care about Goldman’s? First, because its economists have been firmly in the soft-landing camp, which now looks prescient.
Second, Jan Hatzius, the firm’s chief economist, made an equally out-of-consensus, and prescient, call in the opposite direction in 2008. Back then, he correctly warned that mortgage defaults could cause a severe recession.
Nailing one big call might be luck; nailing two gets you a following. Hatzius is one of the most closely followed economists on Wall Street and in Washington.
Chapter Seven: Imperial Overstretch? King Æthelstan and the Conquest of the North
King of Anglo-Saxons, 924 - 927;
King of all English, 927 - 939
the influence of the Scandinavians, Danelaw, language, etc, critical p. 253.
the
question of how many Scandinavians had settled in these areas cannot be
answered decisively, but ....
Across large areas of northern and eastern
England, we find many place names that end with either -by or -thorpe, both of which are elements imported form Old Norse
It
was at this point, for example, that the monastery founded by St Hild
at Streaneshalch became known as Whitby, and the settlement that had
been Northworthig was renamed Derby.
Almost half the place names in Yorkshire recorded in the Domesday Survey of 1086 had such Scandinavian origins.
In
addition, thousands of Norse loan-words appear in English sources
written after the late ninth century. One notable grammatically
borrowing was the words they, their, and them.
The Beatles, The Rolling Stones, Taylor Swift -- and so many more -- titans, but even a single song by a single artist can make my day. I'm thinking of Vern Gosdin.
If you have a well in your backyard and don't know how to find its API number, you can still find the well at FracFocus using other methods at the site.
Example:
39900, drl, Liberty Resources, Elroy E 158-95-7-6-2MBH, Temple
The scout ticket shows this well in "DRL" status but no indication if it's been fracked or not.
So, we go to FrackFocus and type in 3310506058 (the API number without the dashes and terminal four zeroes) and discover that indeed, this well has been fracked:
18362, 641, MRO, Uran 31-2H, Reunion Bay, t6/10; cum 549K 12/23; production since 2019, re-fracked December, 2020, a small re-frack, 4,7 million gallons of total base water.
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
12-2023
31
2451
2448
1050
5732
4338
1206
BAKKEN
11-2023
30
2327
2348
1033
5586
4133
1270
BAKKEN
10-2023
31
2561
2563
1089
5959
4679
1085
BAKKEN
9-2023
30
2219
2201
939
5391
4328
869
BAKKEN
8-2023
31
2067
2043
990
5351
4355
804
BAKKEN
7-2023
31
2465
2441
1031
5661
4727
729
BAKKEN
6-2023
30
2580
2473
1113
5366
5165
0
BAKKEN
5-2023
31
2665
2765
1167
6199
5414
579
BAKKEN
4-2023
30
2089
2181
1071
5686
4937
548
BAKKEN
3-2023
31
3194
3170
1295
7209
6128
874
BAKKEN
2-2023
28
4251
4141
1890
9577
8355
1051
BAKKEN
1-2023
25
3461
3471
1581
8094
6845
1104
BAKKEN
12-2022
27
3520
3645
1712
9572
8642
175
BAKKEN
11-2022
30
5869
5842
2360
11745
10334
268
BAKKEN
10-2022
24
3612
3634
1679
8372
7431
181
BAKKEN
9-2022
30
5078
5116
2208
9585
8686
0
BAKKEN
8-2022
31
5171
5089
2327
9183
6702
1548
BAKKEN
7-2022
31
4544
4628
2021
7476
6530
142
BAKKEN
6-2022
30
4123
4129
2277
6936
6055
107
BAKKEN
5-2022
25
2449
2401
1622
4809
3908
404
BAKKEN
4-2022
5
367
443
384
1334
1152
112
BAKKEN
3-2022
15
2413
2435
1217
7892
7343
92
BAKKEN
2-2022
28
5814
5694
2748
16811
15058
766
BAKKEN
1-2022
31
6705
7005
3406
19822
18578
85
BAKKEN
12-2021
31
7004
6693
3823
20535
18657
683
BAKKEN
11-2021
30
7164
7149
4579
21513
20277
0
BAKKEN
10-2021
31
7865
7723
5740
22623
21290
0
BAKKEN
9-2021
30
8924
9207
6880
23296
21813
0
BAKKEN
8-2021
31
10541
10436
8587
25041
24270
0
BAKKEN
7-2021
31
13833
13828
10180
22360
15440
5983
BAKKEN
6-2021
9
1804
1940
1352
4209
3957
125
BAKKEN
5-2021
26
13925
13674
7956
21420
20009
496
BAKKEN
4-2021
24
13782
13707
9043
19313
17666
767
BAKKEN
3-2021
27
13724
13623
9563
18209
17312
0
BAKKEN
2-2021
28
19012
19035
18743
19911
17544
1147
BAKKEN
1-2021
8
4047
4035
7140
3883
3349
269
BAKKEN
12-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
11-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
10-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
9-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
8-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
7-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
6-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
5-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
4-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
3-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
2-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
1-2020
1
1
0
0
9
0
9
BAKKEN
12-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
11-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
10-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
9-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
8-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
7-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
6-2019
6
223
211
81
525
0
478
BAKKEN
5-2019
31
1169
1334
388
2767
19
2489
BAKKEN
4-2019
30
1106
1094
379
2612
25
2337
A neighboring well:
35333, 1,414, MRO, Estenson USA 11-2TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/19; cum 384K 12/23; a typical "modern" frack: 8.299 million gallons total base water.
