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Saturday, February 24, 2024

An Old EOG Hawkeye Well Approaching One Million Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- February 24, 2024

Locator: 46897B.  

From May 18, 2016

Of the eight additional horizontals in this sections: the four running north to south (three sections long):

  • 22485, 1,926, EOG, Hawkeye 01-2501H, Clarks Creek, t1/13; cum 696K 10/19; only 21 days 3/16;; only 2 days 5/16; only 9 days; 6/16;
  • 22486, see below,
  • 22487, 67, EOG, Hawkeye 02-2501H, Clarks Creek, t12/13; cum 853K 10/19; only 22 days 3/16; 0 days 4/16; 1 day 5/16; 22 days 6/16;
  • 22484, 2,946, EOG, Hawkeye 102-2501H, Clarks Creek, t1/13; cum 601K 10/19; only 21 days 3/16; 0 days 4/16; 2 days 5/16; 6/16;

Updating these wells:

  • 22485, 1,926, EOG, Hawkeye 01-2501H, Clarks Creek, t1/13; cum 696K 10/19; only 21 days 3/16;; only 2 days 5/16; only 9 days; 6/16; cum 746K 12/23;
  • 22486, see below, cum 859K 12/23;
  • 22487, 67, EOG, Hawkeye 02-2501H, Clarks Creek, t12/13; cum 853K 10/19; only 22 days 3/16; 0 days 4/16; 1 day 5/16; 22 days 6/16; cum 966K 12/23;
  • 22484, 2,946, EOG, Hawkeye 102-2501H, Clarks Creek, t1/13; cum 601K 10/19; only 21 days 3/16; 0 days 4/16; 2 days 5/16; 6/16; cum 653K 12/23;

Updating Some Old XTO - Denbury Wells From 2012 -- February 12, 2024

Locator: 46896B.  

From September 20, 2012.

September 21, 2012: Michael Filloon on the dealRigzone story here. Oil and Gas Journal story here. Stories from all over. Forbes: perhaps the best story. Serendipity or planned all along? A securities firm following DNR, suggests KOG is worth as much as $15 and Whiting $70 based on what XOM paid DNR. The Motley Fool's take on this deal: they stress that this deal keeps DNR focused on its strengths: CO2 EOR in older fields. Motley Fool says drilling the Bakken was not one of DNR's strengths. In fact, DNR reported some great wells this past quarter:

  • 22115, 1,505, Denbury, Lundin 41-14SWH, Siverston, t712; cum 24K 7/12
  • 22151, 1,538, Denbury, Tobacco Garden 41-18SH, Tobacco Garden, t6/12; cum 34K 7/12
  • 21682, 1,454, Denbury, Lund 44-8SH, Siverston, t7/12; cum 6K 6/12;
  • 21950, 712, Denbury, Johnsrud 21-13SEH, Siverston, t4/12; cum 16K 6/12;
  • 21786, 1,494, Denbury Onshore, Rink 12-4ESH, Garden, t4/12; cum 19K 5/12; 
  • 21682, 968, Denbury, Lund 44-8NH, t7/12; cum 21K 7/12;
  • 21706, 2,002, Denbury Onshore, Lundin 11-13SEH, Siverston, t4/12; cum 31K 5/12
  • 21425, 1,105, Denbury Onshore, Johnson 43-27ENG, Murphy Creek, t5/12; cum 6K 5/12
  • 21424, 939, Denbury, Johnson 43-27WNH, Murphy Creek, t5/12; cum 8K 5/12;

These are very good wells.

So, let's update these wells:

  • 22115, 1,505, Denbury, Lundin 41-14SWH, Siverston, t712; cum 24K 7/12cum 201K 12/23;
  • 22151, 1,538, Denbury, Tobacco Garden 41-18SH, Tobacco Garden, t6/12; cum 34K 7/12; cum 314K 12/23;
  • 21683, 1,454, Denbury, Lund 44-8SH, Siverston, t7/12; cum 6K 6/12; cum 122K 12/23;
  • 21950, 712, Denbury, Johnsrud 21-13SEH, Siverston, t4/12; cum 16K 6/12; cum 177K 12/23;
  • 21786, 1,494, Denbury Onshore, Rink 12-4ESH, Garden, t4/12; cum 19K 5/12; cum 221K 12/23;
  • 21682, 968, Denbury, Lund 44-8NH, t7/12; cum 21K 7/12; cum 413K 12/23;
  • 21706, 2,002, Denbury Onshore, Lundin 11-13SEH, Siverston, t4/12; cum 31K 5/12;cum 369K 12/23;
  • 21425, 1,105, Denbury Onshore, Johnson 43-27ENG, Murphy Creek, t5/12; cum 6K 5/12; cum 153K 12/23;
  • 21424, 939, Denbury, Johnson 43-27WNH, Murphy Creek, t5/12; cum 8K 5/12; cum 173K 12/23;

Production data of cherry-picked wells

  • 21682:
BAKKEN1-2019291548016066193662699026151695
BAKKEN12-201851204424311517811328430
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-201826858789032437417287016976
BAKKEN7-201819704267852238710189010105
BAKKEN6-201824924083454000
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-2017208001300627311830080
BAKKEN5-201731145612411095508148840
BAKKEN4-2017301301115394343303898249
BAKKEN3-2017311253146296343313924131
BAKKEN2-2017281216126389744153888257
  • 22151:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20233142704152351815162435510510
BAKKEN11-20233043284492392715361324211832
BAKKEN10-202319193616032772793216326121
BAKKEN9-2023100042039
BAKKEN8-20230000000
BAKKEN7-20230000000
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-20230000000
BAKKEN1-20230000000
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-20220000000
BAKKEN9-20220000000
BAKKEN8-20220000000
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-20220000000
BAKKEN3-20220000000
BAKKEN2-2022713130604714250
BAKKEN1-20223181194559828762356223
BAKKEN12-20213186082360230522501262

Really? Didn't Everyone Already Know This? February 24, 2024

Locator: 46894INV.   

Updates

February 25, 2024

**********************************
What If?

Link here.

Form the linked article -- it's been two years since the Fed starting raising rates. Holy mackerel. Two years and the economy seems stronger than ever.

Not so fast, Goldilocks.

The past few months have seen the soft-landing hypothesis surge from behind and overtake recession as the consensus economic outlook.
Inflation has receded in the face of the Federal Reserve’s massive assault on interest rates.
Yet, paradoxically, employment has remained robust, with lots of new jobs created and layoffs near cyclical lows. Corporate earnings have been reasonably strong.

I know what the Goldilocks deniers are saying right now: Rate hikes don’t work overnight. They take time to stifle the economy. But it has been 700 nights and counting since the first increase, in March 2022. So, maybe Goldilocks deserves to take a bow (a victory porridge?) as the soft landing seems to be all around us, with recession in the rearview mirror.

That said, there’s another alternative, one that is definitely not consensus but seems to be accumulating more and more evidence in its favor. What if the economy—already defying economic theory by surviving in the face of sharply higher rates—is actually getting stronger?

That’s admittedly an odd thing to posit after two years of interest rate hikes. But as crazy as it sounds, evidence is starting to pile up for the acceleration hypothesis.

First, there are the “big” data points, like unemployment and the stock market. The change in nonfarm payrolls in December’s report was the strongest since September. January’s was even stronger.
The stock market, widely seen as a mechanism that discounts future growth, is up over 20% from late October to mid-February.
And much more at the link.

I call this the "touch and go" scenario and have called it that for at least a year.

I'm like Harold Hamm. No time for negative talk. It's "damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead." LOL.

I better put in the disclaimer. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

 Original Post

See this post, also.  

******************************
The Book Page

The book for the weekend:

The Anglo-Saxons: A History of the Beginnings of England, 400 - 1066, Marc Morris, c. 2021.

Timeline:

  • 55 BC: Julius Caesar, first Roman military incursions into "Britain"
  • 100 AD: Roman Britain established
  • 200 AD: all the familiar hallmarks of Roman civilization introduced; London, the administrative hub
  • Caerleon, Chester and York had been established
  • 122 AD: Hadrian's Wall
  • 360 AD: Picts from the north, and invaders from Ireland, the Scots and the Attacots, had started invading northern Britain
  • 367 - 368 AD: key date; "the barbarians" winning / Romans losing
  • 402 AD: last year in which Roman coins appear in Britain's archaeological record in any significant quantities
  • 406: the Vandals, the Alans, and the Sueves cross the Rhine frontier; invade Gaul; cause alarm among the Britons, thinking they might be next
  • 409: Romans no longer guaranteeing peace for the Britons, who revolt; Briton goes into free fall
  • 410: most of the archaeological record of Britain disappears; period in which Hoxne treasure was hidden
  • north Britain: invaders were Picts; southern and eastern Britain, the Saxons
  • Romans had religion; first, their pantheon and then Christianity; the Saxons were pagans, and sacrificed 10% of all their captives to a watery end;
  • no written history, but now, the Venerable Bede's Ecclesiastical History of the English People, who says the Brits asked for help to fend off the Picts and the Scots. The Saxons were invited in by the Brits but the Saxons came to conquer the whole country for themselves .... and the rest is history.
  • Bede: written in the early 8th century, a full 300 years after the events he was describinng
  • Bede's primary source: a written source by Gildas, an unknown author, The Ruin of Britain 
  • the most valuable account of the island's fifth-century history
  • the main event -- ultimate cause of Britain's subsequent misery: the arrival of the Saxons
  • Bede more concerned about historical accuracy; placed these events during the rule of the emperor Marcian, accession Bede dated as 449
  • 449 AD: adopted by later writers as the date of Saxon arrival
  • but more likely, 20 years earlier: around 430 AD
  • another written source, The Gallic Chronicle of 452 suggests the same date, around 430 AD
  • Saxon revolt, 441 AD: country divided in two -- the remaining Saxons in one area; the original Brits in another area
  • commonly held: Saxons in the east; Brits in the west; but probably much more complicated
  • then, in-depth archaeological history, pp 30 - 32
  • then, the political and DNA history, pp 32 -- 37.

To be continued elsewhere.

My own copy:

*****************************
The Dust-Veil Event: 536 AD

Link here.

The volcanic winter of 536 was the most severe and protracted episode of climatic cooling in the Northern Hemisphere in the last 2,000 years.
The volcanic winter was caused by at least three simultaneous eruptions of uncertain origin, with several possible locations proposed in various continents. Most contemporary accounts of the volcanic winter are from authors in Constantinople, the capital of the Eastern Roman Empire, although the impact of the cooler temperatures extended beyond Europe. Modern scholarship has determined that in early AD 536 (or possibly late 535), an eruption ejected massive amounts of sulfate aerosols into the atmosphere, which reduced the solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface and cooled the atmosphere for several years. 
In March 536, Constantinople began experiencing darkened skies and lower temperatures. Summer temperatures in 536 fell by as much as 2.5 °C (4.5 °F) below normal in Europe. The lingering impact of the volcanic winter of 536 was augmented in 539–540, when another volcanic eruption caused summer temperatures to decline as much as 2.7 °C (4.9 °F) below normal in Europe.
There is evidence of still another volcanic eruption in 547 which would have extended the cool period. The volcanic eruptions caused crop failures, and were accompanied by the Plague of Justinian, famine, and millions of deaths and initiated the Late Antique Little Ice Age, which lasted from 536 to 560. The medieval scholar Michael McCormick wrote that 536 "was the beginning of one of the worst periods to be alive, if not the worst year."

Michael G. L. Baillie (1944-2023) was a leading expert in dendrochronology, or dating by means of tree-rings, and Professor of Palaeoecology at Queen's University of Belfast, in Northern Ireland. In the 1980s, he was instrumental in building a year-by-year chronology of tree-ring growth reaching 7,400 years into the past. Instrumental in documenting the dust-veil event of 536.

Died last year (2023) -- can't find any obituary in any major newspaper.

I find the temperature drop of 2.5 °C most interesting; it is essentially the same number of degrees that global warming advocates are concerned about but in the opposite direction. It appears the optimum temperature for humans is a +/- 2.5 degrees around a "norm."

Never quit reading.

No Way The Fed Cuts Here -- February 24, 2024

Locator: 46893ECON. 

"When energy, BNSF, are losing money hand-over-first, 5% in Treasuries looks pretty good," to paraphrase the Omaha Oracle in his 2024 annual newsletter.

One man's opinion, link here

One of his two conclusions is correct.

 By the way, "Sold At The Top" has no clue.

Nvidia Wrap -- February 24, 2024

Locator: 46892NVDA.     

Does anyone really have time to read all these articles, or do we simply read the headlines, and move on ? Link here. I know one famous investor sits in his office and reads 10-Ks all day long. Was tech even mentioned in "The Letter" this year? It's almost as if "tech" is a four-letter word for some investors.

Barron's take, link here.

After clearing an already-high bar for its earnings on Wednesday, Nvidia’s stock gained $276.65 billion in market value on Thursday, the largest one-day gain for any company on record.
That’s larger than Meta’s record one-day market value gain of $204.49 billion, set on Februay 2, 2024.
Nvidia blew past expectations for its fourth-quarter earnings and revenue, and gave current-quarter guidance that well exceeded expectations.
Nvidia shares hit an intraday high of $785.75. With a current market cap of $1.963 trillion, Nvidia also easily surpassed Amazon.com and Google-parent Alphabet to become the third-largest U.S. company by market value, after Microsoft and Apple.

And, by the way, they did this with one hand tied behind their back:

  • Biden's doling out money to all "chippers" except Nvidia;
  • Biden has specifically designated Nvidia, among all the "chippers," as the biggest threat to US security
  • has banned sale of high-end / high-margin Nvidia chips to #2 global buyer, China
  • Biden's favs: Intel and GlobalFoundries
  • Nvidia was able to pivot quickly; seed corn will show results this year

P/Es and P/Ss, link here:

The superlatives keep coming, link here: 

Apple leads the list:

  • of the eleven cited, the oldest goes back to only 2020 -- speaks volumes about coming out of the pandemic
  • of the eleven cited,
    • Apple: four
    • MSFT: two
    • Nvidia: two
    • Meta: one
    • Amazon: one
    • Tesla: one

Is this useful? Link here.

NASDAQ, link here: