Five DUCs Reported As Completed -- February 5, 2024

Locator: 46745B.

Personal investing: today I sold "all" my losers to raise cash for a "new" investment. For the archives. Most interesting: included a lot of energy stocks purchased in last three years. Did not sell any energy stocks with significant dividends that have built up over decades.

Vision Pro: Last week I suggested that all those folks concerned about the $3,500 price tag for Apple's Vision Pro had no clue. See this post. 

Compare with today's note: 

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.78.

Active rigs:37.

One new permit, #40502:

• Operator: CLR
• Field: Dimmick Lake (McKenzie County)
• Comments:
• CLR has a permit for a Kennedy 9-31HSL well, lot 2, section 1-150-97; 
• to be sited 260 FNL and 1776 FEL; the Kennedy-Miles pads are tracked here.
  

Three permits renewed:

• Petro-Hunt, three Clark Griswold Federal permits, Boxcar Butte, McKenzie County

Fifteen permits canceled:

• Zavanna (10): ten King Charles permits, all in Williams County;
• MRO (5): the following permits canceled -- Elizabeth Felix USA and Felix USA in Dunn County; Merwin USA, Foote USA, and Avallon USA, all in McLean County;

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported ass completed:

• 39391, 535, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matilda May 4-29-32-158N-100W-MMBH,
• 39392, 1,086, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Ruby 3-220-17-158N-100W-MBH,
• 39393, 889, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matilda May 3-29-32-158N-100W-MBH,
• 39394, 670, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Ruby 2-220-17-158N-100W-MBH,
• 39395, 974, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matilda May 2-29-32-158N-100WW-MBH-LL,

Deerborn, MI: McDonald's Capital Of The US? February 5, 2024

Locator: 46744RETAIL.

Earnings.

[A digression: (6.41 - 6.45) / 6.45 = 0.0062 = 0.62% miss on revenue. Earnings surprised by (2.95 - 2.83)/2.83 = 4.24, exceeding inflation.]

WSJ link here, Mideast boycott.

WSJ, link here, op-ed by Steven Stalinsky (not any member of the WSJ editorial board)

I was curious: how badly could a boycott in the US affect McDonald's?

Deerborn, Michigan, population: 108,421 (2021).

McDonald's density across US, number of stores / one million = 41.5 (2014).

Number of McDonald's in Deerborn, MI, area (google): 16 / 108,000

= 148 McDonald's restaurants / one million

McDonald's in Deerborn, Michian: averages 3 x that of the US overall.

Maps:

Plans:

McDonald’s expects capital expenditures of between $2.5 and $2.7 billion in 2024, more than half of which will be directed toward opening restaurants.

In December, McDonald’s announced plans to open nearly 10,000 new restaurants in the next four years, pushing the total number of stores around the globe to 50,000 by the end of 2027.

In 2024 alone, McDonald’s plans to open more than 2,100 locations, including 1,000 in China. The fast-food chain recently acquired a 28% stake in McDonald’s China from the investment firm Carlyle, boosting its total share of the China business to 48%.

The restaurants opened in 2023 and planned for 2024 will contribute nearly 2% to systemwide sales growth this year, according to the company.

The company aims to expand its loyalty program to 250 million active users by 2027 from the current 150 million, more than doubling the program’s sales to $45 billion a year. Other initiatives include scaling up its delivery, drive-through, and mobile-order businesses, as well as improving its core menu.

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors, and I'm always making wrong assumptions. And my editor is not much help.

Price Per Acre, Price Per Flowing Barrel -- February 5, 2024

Locator: 46743B.

For the archives.

Simply a reminder, nothing else. These prices were at the high end. I've long lost the bubble but in the Bakken around $25,000 / flowing boepd?

See tag for other posts.

Link here. Acquisition, 2022, Delaware Basin:

Link here. Acquisition, 2022, Midland Basin:

 

Eggs, Used Cars, Rent And All That Jazz -- February 5, 2024

Locator: 46742RENT.

So, in the big scheme of things, three things drove inflation a year ago, or so:

• eggs
• used cars
• rent, residential

So, eggs -- due to avian flu, supply shortage; grocer gouging -- not inflation due to money supply, Bidden stimulus, or labor costs. [Energy, of course, was never an issue -- WTI at "relative" lows for at least three years now.

Used cars: if you didn't buy a used car, it was a non-issue and now used cars are in abundant supply.

And rent? Well, here we go:

And not only that, but monthly rents are nearly back to pre-Covid levels, and probably even better than that if compared to "inflation" and cost increases in general.

Oil Money -- Russia, Saudi Arabia -- December, 2023

Locator: 46742SAUDI.

Russia:

Saudi Arabia:

Again, Incredibly Good Economic Numbers This Morning -- ISM Numbers -- February 5. 2024

Locator: 46741INV.

AAPL: wow, wow, wow -- AAPL surges today. Wow. Wow. Wow. 

New concern: the "bull market" is going to end because the economy is doing too well. LOL. Yeah, the economy is doing so well, JPow will have to keep rates higher for longer. This will kill the bull market.

Can't post this often enough:

CNBC pundits:

• two weeks ago: six rate cuts in 2024; first one in March; repeat in May;
• last week: five rate cuts; a March cut is off the table; the May cut is 50-50;
• this week: three rate cuts this year
• May, 2024: no cuts this year; okay maybe two -- one just before the election and one in November.
  

What we know, what is probable:

• Fed cuts come no more often than odd-numbered months
• JPow says three cuts remain on the table
• JPow telegraphs a 99% chance there will be no cut in March
• analysts now "bet" a Fed rate cut in May (month #5) no better than 50 - 50; not gonna happen; economy booming; 1Q24 GDP could be greater than 4.2%;
• sell in May, go away
• summer doldrums, July (month #7) -- a paltry quarter-point cut; and even that's questionable;
  
• September (month #9) -- a cut now would be seen as political; election just six weeks out; peak polling;
• November (month #11) -- with holiday sales surging, do we really need a cut?
• let's add up the "dot" graph
• May: yes
• that's it.
• why would the Fed cut if it doesn't have to cut? Has the Fed ever cut if they didn't see a need?
  

Random Update -- California Bullet Train -- Central Valley -- February 5, 2024

Locator: 46740CALTRAIN.

Tech Headlines -- February 5, 2024

Locator: 46741CHIPS.

Nvidia (NVDA), AMD, Intel (INTC) headlines.

Monday morning, February 5, 2024:

Hertz To Quit Buying Polestar; Volvo To Quit Funding Polestar -- February 5, 2024

Locator: 46742EVS.

EVs: link here. 

• scorecard
• cash burn 
• graphite
•  not for me. 
• "Energy transition is dead" is followed here. 
• EVs charging. 
• cold weather -- reality sets in -- January, 2024
• resale value -- a deal-breaker

Stellantis throws in the towel, also:

Hertz will stop buying from Polestar, also. Link here.  

Volvo to stop funding Polestar. Previously posted. For the archives.

OXY Vs NVDA -- February 5, 2024

Locator: 46749INV.

PGA: Pebble Beach, final round canceled. Wyndam Clark declared winner. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

Nvidia is up again today; OXY is down.

 Continue reading those 10-Ks.

WTI Falls Below $72 Despite Mideast Tensions -- But, Then Again, It's Monday -- February 5, 2024

Locator: 46748B.

Focus on fracking: weekly update posted. Wow, wow, wow -- the numbers really seem to shock -- certainly not supporting the narrative with regard to US economy. Lede:

Refinery utilization rate is lowest in 56 weeks; refinery throughput is lowest in 55 weeks; distillates production is lowest in 56 weeks; US gasoline​ supplies at a ​new 35 month high; gasoline​ ​imports at a 2 year low.

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

Locator: 46748B.

WTI: $72.01.

Tuesday, February 6, 2024: 7 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 66 for the year
38325, conf, EOG, Liberty LR 56-2320H,
38324, conf, EOG, Liberty LR 119-2320H,

Monday, February 5, 2024: 5 for the month; 64 for the quarter, 64 for the year
40046, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Stratton 16-12H Inj
30594, conf, EOG, Liberty LR 29-2320H,
30593, conf, EOG, Liberty LR 29-2320H,

Sunday, February 4, 2024: 2 for the month; 61 for the quarter, 61 for the year
39154, conf, Hess, RS-F Armour-156-92-1224H-4, ,

Saturday, February 3, 2024: 1 for the month; 60 for the quarter, 60 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: Williams acquires gas storage near the heart of LNG export demand.

Natural gas storage — especially well-sited storage with lightning-fast deliverability rates — is taking on a new significance (and value) as LNG export facilities and power generators seek to manage their often-volatile gas demand. But developing new gas storage capacity is costly and, with only a few exceptions, it’s hard to make an economic case for greenfield projects. That reality has spurred a lot of interest among midstream companies in acquiring existing storage assets and, where feasible, expanding that storage. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss one of the biggest storage-acquisition deals to date: Williams Companies’ recent purchase of six facilities with a combined working gas capacity of 115 Bcf in Louisiana and Mississippi. (It’s not all that Williams has been up to on the gas-storage front.) 

As we said  last year, storage has long been a critically important balancing mechanism in the Lower 48 natural gas market. In the Pre-Shale Era and the early days of the Shale Revolution, the storage market was driven primarily by the intrinsic value of capacity — i.e., the need to sock away gas in the lower-demand summer months for use in the peak winter months. More recently, the value of storage is being driven almost exclusively by extrinsic economics — i.e., how flexible and responsive capacity allows market participants to manage supply and demand during short-term market swings. This flexibility and responsiveness have become more important criteria for ensuring reliability as LNG export terminals and an increasingly renewables-heavy power sector navigate frequent gas-demand fluctuations day to day — or even intraday — as well as high-stakes, extreme weather events like 2021’s Winter Storm Uri and the cold snap that gripped Texas in mid-January.

CAT: Blowout 4Q23 Earnings

Locator: 46747ECON.

Link here. 

Or go direct to Barron's. 

One may want to re-read Paul Krugman's recent op-ed on the economy.

What economic peak? Caterpillar CAT 2.41% stock is higher after the company reported blowout fourth-quarter earnings that included improving profit margins. Cat announced fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $5.23 from sales of $17.1 billion on Monday morning.

A year ago, Cat reported EPS of $3.86 from sales of $16.6 billion.