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Monday, January 15, 2024

Barron's Round Table -- Monday Holiday -- January 15, 2024

Locator: 46553INV.

Todd Ahlsten

We are looking for earnings to grow by at least 10% in 2024, and more than half that growth will probably come from the Magnificent Seven [Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia NVDA, and Tesla]. There are massive waves of capital investment going on in the economy, in AI, cloud computing, and elsewhere. Mentions AMD when talking about AI. Also, Intuit, MSFT, Adobe, Amazon, Google. Picks: Intel (INTC), Oracle, Deere, TMO, Marriott International (MAR), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

Sonal Desai

We expect the Fed to lower rates by 75 basis points, but March is too soon for reductions to begin. The economy is robust. Inflation isn’t falling rapidly enough to justify a cut in March. Given the massive bond and equity market rallies at year end, financial conditions take us back to when the fed-funds rate was 1.75%. The market has eased for the Fed. 

William Priest:

Globalization is over. The law of comparative advantage is running backward. We are unwinding the efficiency and security of supply chains, which means higher costs. Different trading blocs could develop as the year unfolds. Countries will want to trade with “friends.”
We’ll wind up with a world of more tariffs.
Nevertheless, the dollar will maintain its haven status.
The deficit, and spending on Social Security and healthcare, military and education, and the interest on the debt are enormous.All these trends create a modest negative backdrop for the stock market. They are also bad news for emerging markets, which benefited from low-cost labor.
Now, AI and other technologies are supplanting labor. If you can substitute technology for labor costs and hold revenue constant, your margins go up. If you can substitute technology for physical assets, your asset returns go up. There isn’t a company in the world that isn’t focusing on these principles.

Abby Joseph Cohen:

Mario Gabelli

Rajiv Jain: best of the bench. Very bullish on US.

Power prices in Germany have gone up more than 50%. You can’t operate a chemical or almost any manufacturing plant with those kinds of prices, if sustained. Germany is reopening lignite coal mines because it shut down nuclear power plants and offshore wind isn’t dependable. The ESG [environmental, social, and governance] bubble is bursting in stock markets because reality is sinking in. You can’t say no to fossil fuels because half the world would starve without fossil. China is getting cheap Russian gas for $2.50-$3.50 per MMBtu. They’re doing fine from an energy perspective. 

What were the best-performing currencies against the dollar in the past three years? Not the euro. The yen is a disaster. The winners are the Mexican peso and the Brazilian real. I disagree with Bill. Emerging markets are doing fine, with the exception of China.

Henry Ellenbogen:

Duolingo: one of his 2023 picks. Mentioins Uber and Domino's Pizza when talking about AI.

David Giroux

Managed care, life-sciences tools, utility stocks, and waste. MSFT premier way to play AI.

Meryl Witmer:

First pick is Graham Holdings. Next and last pick, Wintrust Financial.

Bakken Production Update -- January 15, 2024

Locator: 46552B.

Reported yesterday; updated today.

India To Encourage Gasoline Sales -- January 15, 2024

Locator: 46551INDIA.

Now that John Kerry is stepping down, apparently the Indians feel it's safe to start dropping the price of gasoline.

Link here.


1,700 rupees = $20 USD.

A ton of crude oil: 7.5 bbls. 

$20 / 7.5 bbls = $2.70 / bbl. Okay.

It was 2,300 rupees = $28 USD = 28 / 7.5 = $3.75. 

Recently reported: Saudi Arabia also cutting price of their oil being sold to India.

Apparently India is passing the savings on to their citizens.

DFW Expansion -- For The Archives -- January 15, 2024

Locator: 46550DFW.

Links:
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Meanwhile, Winter Storm 2024, Gerri

Approaching white-out conditions in Nashville, TN, today.




A Bit More On Liberty Resources New Wells In Enget Lake -- January 115, 2024

Locator: 46549B.

Years ago when I first started the blog I made a big deal out of learning the nomenclature used by oil companies to name their wells. The names provided a lot of information regarding wells even when the permits, drilling units, wells were still on confidential status.

Same today. One can gather a lot of information regarding future wells by their names. From their names, I know that all four of these wells will run west to east. Enget Lake is east of Tioga but not known for particularly great wells, so these numbers surprised me, in a good way. At the right price of oil, this tier three or tier two area becomes a tier one area, something that has also been discussed before. 

In the names below, I do not know the "meaning" of "CA" or "NV." Possibly "California" and "Nevada"?

Look at the chronologic number of these wells.

  • 39280, conf, Liberty Resources, CA C 158-93-21-23-2MBHX, Enget Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20231750419121
10-20232051718047
9-20232110415025
8-2023131034271
7-202320640
  • 39279, conf, Liberty Resources, CA C 158-93-21-23-1MBHX, Enget Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20232192221376
10-20232109717923
9-20233643530436
8-2023178728131
7-20239110
  • 39278, conf, Liberty Resources, NV C 158-93-16-14-20MBHX, Enget Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20232080013796
10-20232093514139
9-20233361420184
8-202382747895
7-202332594250
  • 39277, conf, Liberty Resources, NV C 158-93-16-14-5MBHX, Enget Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20232010618445
10-20232245719153
9-20232660727402
8-20232429431101
7-2023213287

Quick! How Did Burritos Get Their Name? January 15, 2024

Locator: 46548BURRITOS.

Link here

See Texas relocations.

By the way, when did we last hear about Tulare, California? Yeah, when writing about the "bullet train." LOL.

Map

Dinuba and Delft Colony history.

Related:

The Comics -- Januuary 15, 2024

Locator: 46547DOOFUS.

I kinda wish he would hang around. What a doofus.  He steps down this year to join Biden's re-election campaign. 


... as bad as ISIS but maybe not as bad as the Houthis.

CREEP. Campaign to re-elect an elderly president.

And, then, "how bout them Cowboys?"

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- January 16, 2024

Locator: 46546B.

  • 35369, conf, Enerplus, Quoll 152-94-23CH, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2023032
10-202331853985
9-202318302301
8-202305030
7-202311633703
  • 30916, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 14-9 MBH-ULW, North Fork, npd,
  • 39280, conf, Liberty Resources, CA C 158-93-21-23-2MBHX, Enget Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20231750419121
10-20232051718047
9-20232110415025
8-2023131034271
7-202320640
  • 39279, conf, Liberty Resources, CA C 158-93-21-23-1MBHX, Enget Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20232192221376
10-20232109717923
9-20233643530436
8-2023178728131
7-20239110
  • 39278, conf, Liberty Resources, NV C 158-93-16-14-20MBHX, Enget Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20232080013796
10-20232093514139
9-20233361420184
8-202382747895
7-202332594250
  • 39277, conf, Liberty Resources, NV C 158-93-16-14-5MBHX, Enget Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20232010618445
10-20232245719153
9-20232660727402
8-20232429431101
7-2023213287
  • 39051, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 4B, Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20233799951817
10-20233808246685
9-20233912250076
8-20234304660331
  • 30915, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 14-9 TFH, North Fork, npd,
  • 39946, conf,  Resonance Exploration, Resonance Lodoen 12-36H INJ, Sergis, npd,
  • 30914, conf, BR, Curtis 14-9 MBH, North Fork, npd,
  • 39660, conf, EOG, Blueberry 2803-03H, Parshall,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20232088811730
10-20232770713963
9-20233087214563
8-20233875715915
7-2023197078819
  • 39659, conf, EOG, Blueberry 2919-02H, Stanley,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20231704511072
10-20232041411192
9-20232320112143
8-20233364915786
7-20231923211485
  • 39658, conf, EOG, Blueberry 2919-01H, Stanley,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20231704511072
10-20232041411192
9-20232320112143
8-20233364915786
7-20231923211485
  • 39052, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 5B, Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20233792252515
10-20234122056908
9-20233683647831
8-20233750341126
  • 38161, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 6-1-17MBH, North Fork, npd,
  • 39887, conf, Kraken Deacon 19-18-7 2H, Burg, npd,
  • 38160, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 7-1-17TFH, North Fork, npd,
  • 37344, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot 23-11 6TFH, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20231928621996
10-20232303323052
9-20232381320480
8-20232533322593
7-20231113110925
  • 35366, conf, Enerplus, Koala 152-994-23CH, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20231228867517
10-20231372932767
9-20231999835776
8-20234956467477
7-20231761517591
  • 39888, conf, Kraken, Deacon 19-18-7-3H, Burg, npd,
  • 39054, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 7B, Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20233837050778
10-20233584047030
9-20233450043084
8-20233748141215
  • 39053, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 6T, Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20232163627335
10-20232940338435
9-20232588333841
8-20232740230996
  • 38159, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 7-1-17TFH, North Fork, npd,
  • 35365, conf, Enerplus, Boomer 152-94-23CH-TF1, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20232048834762
10-20233171047807
9-20235116178148
8-20233834654821
7-202373807055
  • 35364, conf, Enerplus, Joey 152-94-23CH, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20231185827688
10-20231086931520
9-20231739937832
8-20232979549368
7-20231283715205
  • 39886, conf, Kraken, Deacon LW 19-18-7-12TFH, Burg, npd,
  • 38217, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 8-1-17TFH, North Fork, npd,
  • 36377, conf, Hess, EN-Enger-156-94-1423H-2, Big Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20231977431366
10-2023225044864
9-20231798021886
8-20233438652762
7-20232919744929
  • 39885, conf, Kraken, Kisner 24-13-12 4H, Green Lake, npd,
  • 36378, conf, Hess, EN-Enger-156-94-1423H-3, Big Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20231295930739
10-2023147804924
9-20231507519013
8-2023851110287
7-202363201694

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- Januuary 15, 2024

Locator: 46545B.

Wednesday, January 24, 2024: 44 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 44 for the year
37345, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot 23-11 5H,

Tuesday, January 23, 2024: 43 for the month; 43 for the quarter, 43 for the year
None.

Monday, January 22, 2024: 43 for the month; 43 for the quarter, 43 for the year
35369, conf, Enerplus, Quoll 152-94-23CH
30916, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 14-9 MBH-ULW,

Sunday, January 21, 2024: 41 for the month; 41 for the quarter, 41 for the year
39280, conf, Liberty Resources, CA C 158-93-21-23-2MBHX,
39279, conf, Liberty Resources, CA C 158-93-21-23-1MBHX,
39278, conf, Liberty Resources, NV C 158-93-16-14-20MBHX,
39277, conf, Liberty Resources, NV C 158-93-16-14-5MBHX,
30951, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 4B,
30915, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 14-9 TFH,

Saturday, January 20, 2024: 35 for the month; 35 for the quarter, 35 for the year
39946, conf,  Resonance Exploration, Resonance Lodoen 12-36H INJ,
30914, conf, BR, Curtis 14-9 MBH,

Friday, January 19, 2024: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter, 33 for the year
None.

Thursday, January 18, 2024: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter, 33 for the year
None.

Wednesday, January 17, 2024: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter, 33 for the year
39660, conf, EOG, Blueberry 2803-03H,
39659, conf, EOG, Blueberry 2919-02H,
39658, conf, EOG, Blueberry 2919-01H,
39052, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 5B,
38161, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 6-1-17MBH,

Tuesday, January 16, 2024: 28 for the month; 28 for the quarter, 28 for the year
39887, conf, Kraken Deacon 19-18-7 2H,
38160, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 7-1-17TFH,
37344, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot 23-11 6TFH,
35366, conf, Enerplus, Koala 152-994-23CH,

Monday, January 15, 2024: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter, 24 for the year
39888, conf, Kraken, Deacon 19-18-7-3H,
39054, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 7B,
39053, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 6T,
38159, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 7-1-17TFH,
35365, conf, Enerplus, Boomer 152-94-23CH-TF1,
35364, conf, Enerplus, Joey 152-94-23CH,

Sunday, January 14, 2024: 18 for the month; 18 for the quarter, 18 for the year
39886, conf, Kraken, Deacon LW 19-18-7-12TFH,
38217, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 8-1-17TFH,
36377, conf, Hess, EN-Enger-156-94-1423H-2,

Saturday, January 13, 2024: 15 for the month; 15 for the quarter, 15 for the year
39885, conf, Kraken, Kisner 24-13-12 4H,
36378, conf, Hess, EN-Enger-156-94-1423H-3,

Relocations To Texas In 2023 -- Top Ten -- January 15, 2024

Locator: 46544TX.

Talk about huge! Of the top ten relocations to Texas this past year, I selected three to feature, not knowing anything about their Texas destination. It turns out all three are within a bike ride from our little hovel: Hurst, Frisco, and Plano. Why? DFW. In passenger numbers, DFW will be #1 this year (2024) or next. 

Re-posting

This time emphasizing the top ten relocations in 2023 -- look at these three:

#6, Fisher Investments

In 2023, Fisher Investments announced it was relocating its corporate HQ from Camas, Washington to Plano. The company made the announcement after the Washington State Supreme Court ruled that a capital gains tax is constitutional. Fisher is one of the largest employers in Clark County with around 1,800 employees. Despite moving the headquarters, Fisher told a news source it will not close its Camas office but some staff will transfer to its office in Plano, Texas. The company says it currently has 1,200 employees in Plano. Ken Fisher, the firm’s executive chairman who founded Fisher Investments in 1979, lives in Dallas. 

And then, #1, Kelly-Moore Paints:

In 2023, Kelly-Moore Paints relocated its headquarters from San Carlos, California to Hurst, Texas – home of its state-of-the-art manufacturing facility. Their reputation for quality products is unsurpassed in the industry. Kelly-Moore produces some of the most technologically advanced paint products and sets the industry standard for new product development and quality control.

But I think this should have been #1:

#3, Ruiz Foods:

Ruiz Foods is America’s No. 1 frozen Mexican food company. At Ruiz Foods, good food always goes hand in hand with family. And it has since 1964, when Fred Ruiz made his first enchilada with his father, Louis, based on the family recipes of his mother, affectionately known as Grandma Rosie. The company has grown to over 3,500 team members across facilities in California, Texas, and South Carolina. They’ve make food from enchiladas to burritos, chimichangas, taquitos, tamales, quesadillas, breakfast burritos, and more!
Ruiz is moving from Dinuba, CA, a small town in the middle of nowhere, southeast of Fresno, CA. Now, moving to Texas.

 


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Original Post

Locator: 46540Apple.

Relocations, California to Texas, tracked here

Top ten relocations to Texas in 2023.

Link here.

Apple Park, Cupertino, is starting to look like a white elephant. The Siri team must have been a minuscule piece of Apple's overall operations if the move is/was made as a cost-cutting measure. Why else would the team move?

On the surface, it simply makes no sense. One almost gets the feeling that Apple is cutting its losses wherever it can. And it could be a shot across the bow as a warning to "California." But warning for what? It will be interesting to see what social media has to say about that (at the link).