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Thursday, December 21, 2023

Electric Grid In The Netherlands Has Reached Its Limit -- Could New EV Sales Be Suspended? December 21, 2023

Locator: 46373EVS.

This story posted yesterday in the Netherlands Times:

Map of the area affected is pretty much all the Dutch provinces that border the North Sea, or perhaps as much as one-third of the Netherlands, stretching from The Hague to Groningen. Amsterdam is on the main road between these two cities / provinces.

From the article:


How bad is it? Link to Reuters story earlier this year:



The map
:

ASML: is the only company in the world that currently produces extreme ultraviolet (EUV) orthography machines, which are used to produce cutting-edge semiconductor chips that companies like Apple rely upon.

The company is located in Veldhoven, Netherlands, a suburb on the southwest side of Eindhoven.

From wiki:


And more:

ASML, from Investopedia:


For The Archives -- EVs -- Re-Thinking These Mandates -- December 21, 2023

Locator: 46372EVS.

This tells me two things:

  • Mother Nature is in charge.
  • Mother Nature has a sense of humor.

For the archives. 

Irony.

Link here.

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The Book Page

The Winter's Tale, The Everyman Shakespeare,  William Shakespeare, c. 1991, editor, John F Andrews, Shakespearian expert.

The Grapes of Math: How Life Reflects Numbers and Numbers Reflect Life, Alex Bellos, c. 2014.

Mullen Is Up 75% Today -- What's Up? December 21, 2023

Locator: 46371EVS.

Mullen is up 75% today.

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Re-Posting

Locator: 45349EVS.

Warning: all readers should skip this page. I did this for my own benefit because I was starting to lose the bubble.


This is re-capping a rabbit hole from which acabo de volver

LOL.

It all started when I realized I omitted ELMS from my EV scorecard. Or if it's there, which it probably is, I missed it.

Long story short: ELMS went bankrupt; was bought by Mullan.

Mullan will roll out its class 3 truck on August 24, 2023.

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Tickers

ELMS:


MULN:


From the link above:
Mullen / ELMS: 
The $240 million cash purchase allows Mullen the capability to build up to 50,000 EVs annually, accelerating the launch of the Mullen FIVE and Bollinger B1 and B2 retail vehicles. The deal also gives Mullen control over ELMS’s inventory, intellectual property rights and plant in Mishawaka, Indiana.

Mullen, which went public in a 2021 SPAC merger, is in growth mode, acquiring in September a 60% controlling interest in Bollinger Motors, a Michigan-based startup that aimed to build battery-electric commercial trucks and off-road pickups. Electric Last Mile Solutions, another Michigan startup, filed for bankruptcy in June, less than a year after it went public through a $1.4 billion SPAC deal.

Several startups that went public in high-profile reverse mergers over the past couple of years have faced bankruptcy, SEC scrutiny or cash crunches. The purchase of ELMS will allow Mullen to “to shorten its production path and aggressively expand into the commercial and consumer EV market,” David Michery, CEO and chairman of Mullen Automotive, said in a statement.

The automaker plans to build the Mullen FIVE, as well as the Mullen Class 1 and Class 3 commercial delivery vehicles expected next year, at its factory in Tunica, Mississippi. In addition to the Mullen FIVE slated to enter production in 2024, the company plans to build the Five RS, an “ultra-high-performance EV sport crossover” with 1,000 horsepower, a top speed of 200 mph and 0-to-60 acceleration under two seconds.

Break, break. I also forgot to include Canoo (GOEV) on the EV scorecard, and any updates, or maybe I did and I forgot. I do remember the Canoo - NASA tie-up some month ago.
Today:


Ticker, GOEV:



From wiki:


Probability of bankruptcy: link here.

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Truck Classification

In a long note like this, there will be typographical and content errors, errors of omission and commission. If this is important to you, go to the source.


Vehicle classification in the US.

Light duty.
  • Class 1: passenger cars and really, really light-weight pickup trucks like the Ford Ranger, Toyota Tacoma, Nissan Frontier.
    • The F-150 is almost a class 1, but it falls into the the class 2 category, but class 2 is the only class further broken into class 2a and 2b. So, the F-150 "upsets" the "trend" that one sees below. 
  • Class 2a: F-150
  • Class 2b: F-250
Medium duty.
  • Class 3: F-350
  • Now, it gets a bit interesting. An F-350 is a class 3 truck but an F-450 comes in both the class 3 flavor and the class 4 favor. 
    • so, Ford markets two class 3 pick-up trucks: the F-350 and the F-450
    • class 3 F-450: the typical pick-up truck;
      • class 4 F-450: just the cab and the chassis; no "box." It's like the typical urban tow trucks one sees everywhere picking up stalled EVs
  • Class 4: F-450 (chassis only model, as noted above)
A trend is starting to develop, continuing with medium duty.
  • Class 5: F-550
  • Class 6: F-650
Heavy duty
  • Class 7 26,001 - 33,000 pounds.: F-750; Kenworth K370, Mack MD, Peterbilt 220 and 337/348, etc.
  • Class 8, 33,001 - 80,000 pounds: Volvo Truck VNL, Freightliner Cascadia, Ford F-750, Kenworths, Nikola TRE, Peterbilts, Western Stars, and so on. 
I figured out the nomenclature using the quarter-ton, half-ton, three-quarter-ton naming, but now the "class nomenclature" makes sense. Whether it was planned that way or not.

Battery Hell -- EVs -- Cathodes And Anodes -- An Update -- Decide 21, 2023

Locator: 46370BATTERIES.

Busy, busy day. On today's list:

  • Director's Cut: link here.
  • 177B Bleecker Street, link here.
  • cathodes:
  • art
  • evolution
  • GDP: link here.
  • OPEC
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Santa Claus rally: link here.
  • Mullen: huge jump in share price today; 1-100 reverse split.
  • Cintas: nice jump in share price; earnings reporting; best estimates.
  • French toast
  • SNAP: link here.
  • no shame
  • winter solstice: 9:27 p.m. tonight, December 21, 2023 -- at this moment, we turn the corner to slightly longer days; also called the hibernal solstice; early 17th century: from late Latin hibernalis, from hibernus ‘wintry’. Shakespeare was at his peak in the early 17th century -- could it be .. let's look -- possibly and probably not -- one source says first used, 1646, but a more authoritative source (OED) suggests 1626, and Sir Henry Neville died 1615, William Shakespeare, 1616. 

As you go through this blog and the linked articles, think about this:

Tesla is undoubtedly the leader in EV battery development and manufacturing.

If Tesla is having this much trouble, imagine the problems GM and Ford face. Both of these companies have stepped back from BEVs, which, of course, gives the advantage to a company that is only involved with BEVs, Tesla.

The Reuter's article is an incredible article. We've discussed it before

The terminals:

  • cathodes: lithium
  • anodes: heavy oil

The Reuter's article linked below leads me back to a nice primer on cathodes and anodes: heavy oil is dead. Long live heavy oil

From the linked Reuter's article:

AUSTIN, Texas, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Elon Musk says prototypes are easy, production is hell. And when it comes to the long-awaited Cybertruck, Tesla's hell is its pioneering 4680 battery.

Tesla delivered the first of its futuristic stainless steel-plated electric pickups last month and CEO Musk said in October that it would probably hit an annual production rate of a quarter of a million vehicles at some point during 2025.

But Tesla is still a long way off that kind of production pace, and one of the main bottlenecks is the speed it can make the 4680 batteries used in the Cybertruck with its new dry-coating technology, nine people familiar with the matter said.

AUSTIN, Texas, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Elon Musk says prototypes are easy, production is hell. And when it comes to the long-awaited Cybertruck, Tesla's hell is its pioneering 4680 battery.

Tesla delivered the first of its futuristic stainless steel-plated electric pickups last month and CEO Musk said in October that it would probably hit an annual production rate of a quarter of a million vehicles at some point during 2025.

But Tesla is still a long way off that kind of production pace, and one of the main bottlenecks is the speed it can make the 4680 batteries used in the Cybertruck with its new dry-coating technology, nine people familiar with the matter said.

Tesla's Giga Texas factory is currently churning out 4680 battery cells at rate only sufficient to power about 24,000 Cybertrucks a year, or about a 10th of the required output, according to Reuters calculations based on a combination of public data and unpublished figures provided by sources.

Being able to ramp up battery output massively by dry-coating electrodes - rather than using the slower, more costly wet-coating - was a key factor behind Tesla's forecasts in 2020 that it would more than halve battery costs, cut investment significantly, and create smaller, greener factories.

The nine people, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said Tesla had yet to crack dry-coating at the industrial scale needed to make 4680 batteries fast enough to hit its production targets.

The people said dry-coating the anode in the 4680 cells was not problematic but Tesla was struggling with the same technique for the cathode - the most expensive component in a battery.

Daily Activity Report -- December 21, 2023

Locator: 46369B.

WTI: $73.89.

Active rigs: 33.

Three new permits, #40406 - #40408, inclusive:

  • Operators: Phoenix Operating; Formentera Operations (2)
  • Fields: Foothills (Burke); Burg (Divide)
  • Comments:
    • Formentera has permits for two FTH1 wells SESW 22-161-92, 
      • to be sited 555 FSL with one 1731 FWL and the other 1696 FWL
    • Phoenix Operating has a permit for a Nate well NENW 27-160-99, 
      • to be sited 588 FNL and 1641 FWL;

Three permits renewed:

  • Petro-Hunt: three Burian permits in Little Knife, Billings County;

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 39591, 517, Lime Rock Resources, Moe 29-32-1TFH,
  • 39592, 547, Lime Rock Resources, Curly 29-32-1TFH,
  • 39593, 707, Lime Rock Resources, Larry 29-32-1TFHL,
  • 39594, 560, Lime Rock Resources, Chico 28-33-1TFHL,
  • 39663, 598, Lime Rock Resources, Lucky 30-31-TFHL,
  • 39664. 525, Lime Rock Resources, Dustry 29-32-TFHL,

Director's Cut -- October, 2023

Locator: 46368CUT.

Director's Cuts are tracked here

October, 2023, data posted here

Crude oil production down 3.7% m/m. First month in a long time (first time?) when natural gas production did not increase m/m. Big increase in number of wells permitted, m/m; from 59 to 77. At 18,619 producing wells, another new high for the number of producing wells. Crude oill production was down because number of completed DUCs decreased.

Bleecker Street, NYC -- December 21, 2023

Locator: 46367MARVEL.

Busy, busy day. On today's list:

  • Director's Cut: link here.
  • 177B Bleecker Street, link here.
  • cathodes: link here.
  • art
  • evolution
  • GDP: link here.
  • OPEC
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Santa Claus rally: link here.
  • Mullen: huge jump in share price today; 1-100 reverse split.
  • Cintas: nice jump in share price; earnings reporting; best estimates.
  • French toast
  • SNAP: link here.
  • no shame
  • winter solstice: 9:27 p.m. tonight, December 21, 2023 -- at this moment, we turn the corner to slightly longer days; also called the hibernal solstice; early 17th century: from late Latin hibernalis, from hibernus ‘wintry’. Shakespeare was at his peak in the early 17th century -- could it be .. let's look -- possibly and probably not -- one source says first used, 1646, but a more authoritative source (OED) suggests 1626, and Sir Henry Neville died 1615, William Shakespeare, 1616. 

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Bleecker Street 

This is where it all started:


The Sanctum Sanctorum: wiki --

The Sanctum Sanctorum is a fictional building appearing in American comic books published by Marvel Comics, as the residence and headquarters of Doctor Strange. Created by Stan Lee and Steve Ditko, the building first appeared in Strange Tales #110 (July 1963). It is located at 177A Bleecker Street in New York City's Greenwich Village neighborhood.
This is a reference to the address of an apartment once shared by writers Roy Thomas and Gary Friedrich. 

Bleecker Street, Manhattan Island, NYC, wiki

Bleecker Street is an east–west street in the New York City borough of Manhattan. It is most famous today as a Greenwich Village nightclub district. The street connects a neighborhood today popular for music venues and comedy, but which was once a major center for American bohemia. The street is named after the family name of Anthony Lispenard Bleecker, a banker, the father of Anthony Bleecker, a 19th-century writer, through whose family farm the street ran.

Connections:

  • James Roosevelt, great-grandfather of FDR
  • Elizabeth Blackwell, America's first female physician, established a clinic with her sister Emily
  • the Margaret Sanger Square, the headquarters of Planned Parenthood
  • original home of Sanger's Birth Control Clinical Research Bureau
  • Caffe Au Go go in the basement of the New Andy Warhol Garrick Theater
  • CBGP, was located at the east end of Bleecker Street, on Bowery
  • John Belushi
  • Robert De Niro grew up on Bleecker Street
  • Alicia Keys
  • Herman Melville lived there as a boy
  • Kate and Allie

Investing -- December 21, 2023

Locator: 46366INV.

Busy, busy day. On today's list:

  • Director's Cut: link here.
  • 177B Bleecker Street, link here.
  • cathodes: link here.
  • art
  • evolution
  • GDP
  • OPEC
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Santa Claus rally
  • Mullen: huge jump in share price today; 1-100 reverse split.
  • Cintas: nice jump in share price; earnings reporting; best estimates.
  • French toast
  • SNAP 
  • no shame
  • winter solstice: 9:27 p.m. tonight, December 21, 2023 -- at this moment, we turn the corner to slightly longer days; also called the hibernal solstice; early 17th century: from late Latin hibernalis, from hibernus ‘wintry’. Shakespeare was at his peak in the early 17th century -- could it be .. let's look -- possibly and probably not -- one source says first used, 1646, but a more authoritative source (OED) suggests 1626, and Sir Henry Neville died 1615, William Shakespeare, 1616.

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Half-Time Report (CNBC)

Personal investing: my favorite program on CNBC is the "Half-Time Report" and my favorite panelist is Josh Brown. 

Because of him, I am changing my personal investing as off 2024 (and will start today).  I will now add upwards of ten new ticker symbols but these ten -- which will vary on a day-to-day basis and will not move to the twenty tickers that are long-term holds unless they "can" replace one of the tickers in the top 20. None of the new ticker symbols will stay in the portfolio longer than eight months unless the become part of the top 20. If that makes sense.

SNAP: Josh commented on SNAP today. SNAP becomes the first of ten tickers in my new "personal investing" plan.

GDP: huge jump in most recent estimate for 4Q23. Link here. Jumps from a low of 1.2 to 2.7.

GDP components: I've never really paid attention to this -- it's really quite remarkable -- when one thinks about it ...

Santa Claus rally: Barron's.

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Competitive Pose

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today And Tomorrow -- Thursday, December 21, 2023

Locator: 46365B.

Busy, busy day. On today's list:

  • Director's Cut: link here.
  • 177B Bleecker Street, link here.
  • cathodes: link here.
  • art
  • evolution
  • GDP
  • OPEC
  • Apple (AAPL) 
  • Santa Claus rally
  • Mullen: huge jump in share price today; 1-100 reverse split.
  • Cintas: nice jump in share price; earnings reporting; best estimates.
  • French toast
  • SNAP 
  • no shame
  • winter solstice: 9:27 p.m. tonight, December 21, 2023 -- at this moment, we turn the corner to slightly longer days; also called the hibernal solstice; early 17th century: from late Latin hibernalis, from hibernus ‘wintry’. Shakespeare was at his peak in the early 17th century -- could it be .. let's look -- possibly and probably not -- one source says first used, 1646, but a mmore authoritative source (OED) suggests 1626, and Sir Henry Neville died 1615, William Shakespeare, 1616.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $73.52.

Friday, December 22, 2023: 32 for the month; 181 for the quarter, 751 for the year
39026, conf, Hess, GO-Golden Valley-157-96-2833H-3,
38113, conf, Formentera, LFM1 21-33 161-93 CMB,

Thursday, December 21, 2023: 30 for the month; 179 for the quarter, 749 for the year
39229, conf, Grayson Mill, Reidle 6-3F 1H,

RBN Energy: how gas pipeline rates are really set and why you should care.

The rates regulators set for transporting natural gas on interstate pipelines are all-important. They determine how much it costs to get gas from A to B, whether new capacity can be funded, and serve as the bedrock of regional gas price relationships around the nation’s pipeline grid. But the process for establishing those rates can seem opaque and is often misunderstood — it’s one of those things you need to be directly involved in to fully grasp. Well, RBN’s Advisory Practice lives and breathes gas pipeline rate cases month in, month out, and we thought it would be interesting — and kind of fun — to take you behind the curtain and explain how rate cases at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) really play out.