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Sunday, December 17, 2023

FCS -- December 17, 2023

Locator: 46332SPORTS.

Due to traveling and family commitments I was remiss in posting the results of the semifinals.

SDSU will meet Montana (or vice versa) in the championship game in Frisco, TX, just up the road from us on January 7, 2023.

That UAlbany - SDSU game -- wow, what a mismatch.


Focus On Fracking -- "The Over-Under" -- December 17, 2023

Locator: 46331WTI.

Link here.

But I'm curious. What's EIA's fudge factor this week? For those betting / wagering, the "over-under" is one million bopd. Here we go:

To account for that big difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a [ -1,046,000] barrel per day figure onto what is now line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil," thus suggesting there was an error in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed.... However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate [and sacrosanct], and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing, and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it's published, and just as it's watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry...

So, those who wagered the "fudge factor" would come in over one million bbls win. You win again.


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14

Jerry Lee Lewis.

I’m Glad I Found Willie Nelson Before He Was Famous — December 17, 2023

Locator: 46330WILLIE.

 A gazillion tweets and not one of the “Red-Headed Stranger” album.

Sad.

😞  ðŸ˜ž 😞.

I’ll be signing off now and reminiscing of the days I had with Belle and then many years later with ….

Released in 1975

What a wonderful life.

By the way, there’s one thing that beats everything else in life: conversations with the love of your life. I’ll leave it at that but the sentiment is not quite right. 

Best ad on “television” right now? Link here.

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Flashback: My First Command

MSgt McDermott, "my" first First Sergeant, perhaps "my" best First Sergeant ever. Wow, he was good.

Top Ten Lists, A Look Back -- 2023 And Recommendations -- 2024

Locator: 46329INV.

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Posted After January 15, 2024

Barron's Roundtable: long, long read. January 14, 2024. Eight stocks recommended. Lots of discussion. Link here.

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Posted Prior To January 15, 2024


Link here, AppEconomy, best companies of 2023:

  • META: the year of efficiency;
  • SpaceX: skyrocketing valuation;
  • Novo Nordisk: is Ozempic right for me?
  • MSFT: OpenAI, Azure, and Activision
  • Nvidia: company of the year

Barron's top ten for 2024, in alphabetical order, in BOLD, my favorite:

  • Alibaba
  • GOOG (Alphabet);
  • Barrick Gold
  • BRK (Warren Buffett)
  • BioNTech (partner PFE and competitor Moderna)
  • Chevron
  • Hertz Global
  • Madison Square Gardens Sports
  • PepsiCo
  • U-Haul Holding

Barron's top ten for 2023 (same link as above):

TMDW top ten for 2024, one-year change; 5-year change; new money -- not necessarily top picks for the year; for example, if I didn't have to re-balance my portfolio, AAPL would replace ABBV or WMT, as just one example. The following list is "fluid" but likely where 85% of my new money will be allocated in 2024, in order of preference:

  • TSM: 35%; 187%;
  • AVGO: 105%; 361%
  • MSFT: 54%; 277%
  • NVDA: 201%; 1,400%;
  • CAT: 28%; 138%
  • DE: - 11%; 170%;
  • WMT: 7%; 75%;
  • DVN: - 24%; 105%
  • NOG: 20%; 80%
  • ABBV: -5%; 81%;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Forbes: besides top ten stocks for 2024, a nice article about investing (not trading):

Unicorns, link here:

Top five on-line periodicals plus a few more if you need more:

  • WSJ;
  • Barron's;
  • The Atlantic;
  • The New Yorker;
  • New York Review of Books;
  • Boston Globe;
  • NY Times;
  • LA Times;

Top retailers:

  • computers, phones: Apple
  • toys: Lego
  • furniture: Stickley
  • fast food: McDonald's; Chick-Fil-A (tie; comparing apples to oranges)
  • streaming: Amazon, Hulu (tie)
  • home, grocery: Walmart

Seven dividend-paying big-cap stocks: 

Link here.


From Barron's, link here: the AI run is not over. 


From Barron's, link here: AAPL could hit market cap of $4 trillion in 2024.

Apple currently has a market cap of about $3.1 trillion. The stock would need to close at $257.19 a share or higher to reach the $4 trillion market cap milestone. That’s a 30.6% gain from Tuesday’s close.

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The Market 2023 Going Into 2024


From The WSJ

Mentioned:

  • S&P 500 ETF Trust
  • bonds
  • MMFs
  • crypto

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- December 17, 2023

Locator: 46328B.

The wells:

  • 39648, conf, Grayson Mill, Fleck 150-100-1-12-7H, Sandrocks, npd,
  • 39502, conf, Enerplus, Brown Bear 157-99-1-12-5H, Lone Tree Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20232482525077
9-20232841720755
8-20232095718788
7-20231469112220
  • 39501, conf, Enerplus, Brown Bear 157-99-1-12-4H, Lone Tree Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20231934618735
9-20231944016679
8-20232323618316
7-2023137999560
  • 39299, conf, Slawson, Minx Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, npd,
  • 38258, conf, Hess, EN-State B-LE-155-93-0916H-1, Alger,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20232021821629
9-20232224722908
8-20232246424880
7-20233564935727
6-2023122033961
  • 39647, conf, Grayson Mill, Fleck 150-100-1-23-6H, Sandrocks, npd,
  • 30263, conf, Slawson, Bazooka 1 SLH, Big Bend, npd,
  • 39500, conf, Enerplus, Brown Bear 157-99-1-12-3H, Lone Tree Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20231233410803
9-202344513394
8-20232051814747
7-2023123188900
  • 39290, conf, Hess, GO-Tong Trust A-157-96-2032H-4, Ray,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20231372121972
9-20231664329253
8-20232732547194
7-20233461059709
6-20237644470
  • 39646, conf, Grayson Mill, Fleck 150-100-1-12-5H, Sanddrocks, npd,
  • 39497, conf, Enerplus, Brown Bear 158-99-36-25-3H, Ellisville,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20231646113937
9-2023113788129
8-20231767812062
7-20231846813404
  • 39026, conf, Hess, GO-Golden Valley-157-96-2833H-3, Ray,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20231475033621
9-20231688335009
8-20231239120926
7-20233235891214
6-2023861032285
  • 38113, conf, Formentera , LFM1 21-33 161-93 CMB, Leaf Mountain,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2023107900
9-202363070
  • 39229, conf, Grayson Mill, Reidle 6-3F 1H, Briar Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20232558016402
9-20232601718760
8-20232546018534
7-20233286018697
6-20233281617625
  • 39698, conf, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HB, Reunion Bay, npd,
  • 39552, conf, Five States Operating, RH 1-8H, Rocky Hill,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-202334130
9-202333430
8-20236960
  • 39230, conf, Grayson Mill, Reidle 6-3F2H, Briar Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20231977313025
9-20232314017366
8-20232490021883
7-20233362818228
6-2023170199017
  • 39027, conf, Hess, GO-Golden Valley-LW-157-96-2832H-1, Ray,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20231341226673
9-20231902240477
8-20231805232166
7-20232792929481
6-2023121986940
  • 38257, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-10, Alger,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20232145126460
9-20232280126413
8-20232394525311
7-20232289116048
6-20232917919954
  • 39697, conf, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HW, Reunion Bay, npd,
  • 38254, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-7, Alger,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20231541918178
9-20231575618302
8-20231832020498
7-20231954920274
6-20231663815165
  • 38114, conf, Formentera Operations, LFM1 22-34 161-93 BTF, Leaf Mountain,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2023123160
9-202373400
  • 39696, conf, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HIL, Reunion Bay, npd;

The Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 17, 2023

Locator: 46327B.

Wednesday, December 27, 2023: 43 for the month; 192 for the quarter, 762 for the year
39648, conf, Grayson Mill, Fleck 150-100-1-12-7H,
39502, conf, Enerplus, Brown Bear 157-99-1-12-5H,

Tuesday, December 26, 2023: 41 for the month; 190 for the quarter, 760 for the year
39501, conf, Enerplus, Brown Bear 157-99-1-12-4H,
39299, conf, Slawson, Minx Federal1 SLH,
38258, conf, Hess, EN-State B-LE-155-93-0916H-1,

Monday, December 25, 2023: 38 for the month; 187 for the quarter, 757 for the year
39647, conf, Grayson Mill, Fleck 150-100-1-23-6H,
30263, conf, Slawson, Bazooka 1 SLH,

Sunday, December 24, 2023: 36 for the month; 185 for the quarter, 755 for the year
39500, conf, Enerplus, Brown Bear 157-99-1-12-3H,
39290, conf, Hess, GO-Tong Trust A-157-96-2032H-4,

Saturday, December 23, 2023: 34 for the month; 183 for the quarter, 753 for the year
39646, conf, Grayson Mill, Fleck 150-100-1-12-5H,
39497, conf, Enerplus, Brown Bear 158-99-36-25-3H,

Friday, December 22, 2023: 32 for the month; 181 for the quarter, 751 for the year
39026, conf, Hess, GO-Golden Valley-157-96-2833H-3,
38113, conf, Formentera , LFM1 21-33 161-93 CMB,

Thursday, December 21, 2023: 30 for the month; 179 for the quarter, 749 for the year
39229, conf, Grayson Mill, Reiddle 6-3F 1H,

Wednesday, December 20, 2023: 29 for the month; 178 for the quarter, 748 for the year
39698, conf, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HB,
39552, conf, Five States Operating, RH 1-8H,
39230, conf, Grayson Mill, Reidle 6-3F 2H,
39027, conf, Hess, GO-GOLDEN VALLEY-LW-157-96-2832H-1,
38257, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-10,

Tuesday, December 19, 2023: 24 for the month; 173 for the quarter, 743 for the year
39697, conf, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HW,
38254, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-7,
38114, conf, Formentera Operations, LFM1 22-34 161-93 BTF,

Monday, December 18, 2023: 21 for the month; 170 for the quarter, 740 for the year
None.

Sunday, December 17, 2023: 21 for the month; 170 for the quarter, 740 for the year
39696, conf, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HIL,

Saturday, December 16, 2023: 20 for the month; 169 for the quarter, 739 for the year
None.

Legacy Fund -- Deposits -- November, 2023

Locator: 46326B.

Link here.

Link here. For an oil play that was nothing but hype and a little oil, North Dakota's Legacy Fund has done very, very well.


I wonder: whatever happened to Jane?