Counting One's Chickens Before They Hatch -- December 12, 2023

Locator: 46290INV.

Tea leaves.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Chevron: 

• raises its dividend like clockwork, every February
• currently $1.51 / share
• most recently, CVX paid its quarterly dividend yesterday
• my hunch: many long-term CVX shareholders have CVX trending toward zero-dollar-cost basis
• in February, 2024:
• expect to see an 8% increase in the dividend, payable March, 2024 -- 12 cents / share
• from $1.51 to $1.63 / share every three months
• CVX can sustain this payout on $60 oil;
  

Broadcom:

• expect a 20:1 stock split sooner than later.

WPX Missouri River Wells

Locator: 46289B.

Daily activity report, December 12, 2023.

Nine permits approved, #40386 - #40394, inclusive:

• Operator: WPX
• Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail County)
• Comments
• WPX has permits for nine Missouri River wells, NWSE 24-150-93; 
• to be sited between 2494 FNL and 2567 FSL and between 1989 FEL and 2150 FEL;

The maps:

An existing permitted location:

• 40237, conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HC, 

The other WPX Missouri River wells to be sited on that pad:

• HIL,
• HY,
• HA,
• HW,
• HX,
• HB,
• HZ,
• HD,
• HUL,
  

WPX With Nine New Permits; Five Permits Renewed -- December 12, 2023

Locator: 46288B.

WTI: $68.81.

Active rigs: 32. At or near the 52-week low. I wonder how Josh is spinning this over at "X." I quit following Josh months ago.

Nine permits approved, #40386 - #40394, inclusive:

• Operator: WPX
• Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail County)
• Comments
• WPX has permits for nine Missouri River wells, NWSE 24-150-93; 
• to be sited between 2494 FNL and 2567 FSL and between 1989 FEL and 2150 FEL;

Five permits renewed:

• Hess, two AN-Double Bar V permits and three AN-Lone Tree permits, all in McKenzie County

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as compldeted:

• 39327, 163, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-22-15H 4,
• 39369, 1,572, MRO, Amber 31-29,

The Graphics Page -- December 12, 2023

Locator: 46287INV.

I've been watching a lot of CNBC the last few weeks. It was worse than usual today at "Power Lunch." Even the host was (negatively) amazed how negative everyone was. Fortunately Josh was there to help us out.

It's been entertaining to listen to the bears and naysayers "explain" why they missed the 2023 market, and their negative thoughts going into 2024.

There really is a "buying" time and a "selling" time.

I can't think of two more diametrically opposed tickers, one for the bears playing defense, and one for the bulls on offense. And, yes, we all had the same information one year ago:

SRE is a brick in my investing foundation but I will never add another share. I've moved on. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Now, for the rest of the charts:

Amgen will raise its dividend from $2.13 to $2.25 -- a 5.6% increase -- which beats inflation, and about matches Treasuries and money market funds.

Dogs Of The Dow -- December 12, 2023

Locator: 46286INV.

Wow, everyone's reading the blog. Thank you. LOL.

Yesterday, I posted a short note on the "dogs of the Dow":

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Dogs Of The Dow

Link takes you to a newsletter subscription site. Maybe later I can find a better source. [Later: not necessary. We've already moved on to the Dogs of 2024.

Today, from Barron's, three "dogs" most likely to beat the Dow next year, 2024.

The Bloomberg list:

The first list included INTC and JPM which the second list did not.

The second list included GS (Goldman) and KO (Coca-Cola) which the first list did not.

The three stocks Barron's suggest could be the best of the lot in 2024:

• KO,
• GS,
• CVX

From the linked Barron's article:

Coca-Cola, Goldman, and Chevron yield 3.1%, 3.1%, and 4.2%, respectively. The average yield for the 2024 Dogs is about 4.8%. Walgreens yields north of 8% while Verizon yields about 7%. The average yield heading into 2023 was about 4.5%.

The dividend yield on the S&P 500 is currently about 1.6%. The yield on the Dow is about 2.1%.

The entire 2024 Dogs list is Verizon, chemical giant Dow Inc., Walgreens, 3M, IBM, Amgen, Cisco, Chevron, Coca-Cola, and Goldman. Intel and JPMorgan have dropped out of this year’s pack. They were replaced by Coca-Cola and Goldman.

Energy -- And Chart Of The Day -- December 12, 2023

Locator: 46285ENERGY.

Chart(s) of the day: one year ago and five years ago, we all had the same information (prospectuses):

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Europe: Energy

Europe: from Peter Zeihan today -- 

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Going Green

Headlines II -- Elison, Oracle, Vanderbilt -- December 12, 2023

Locator: 46284HEADLINES.

The fourth industrial revolution: industrial revolutions historically run ten years. 

StarLink: if you don't believe that about the 4th Industrial Revolution, look into some of StarLink's numbers being reported.

Think NVDA: from Oracle's earnings call -- 100 new data centers --

From yesterday:

The ten billionaires who saw their wealth grow the most in 2023. Link here. The list appears to be ranked by "increase in value (dollars)," not "increase by percent. If by percent, Jensen Huang might have led the list with Zuckerberg still coming in second, but I'm not sure about the math. By dollars:

• top of the list: Elon
• second: Mark Zuckerberg
• third: Jeff Bezos
• rest: Steve Balmer, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Larry Elison (ORACLE), Jensen Huang, Bill Gates, and Michael Dell

This was back in June, 2023. Elison was buying "tons" of Nvidia chips; now he's renting them out. Brilliant.

Oracle Corp is spending "billions" of dollars on chips from Nvidia Corp as it expands a cloud computing service targeting a new wave of artificial intelligence companies.

Oracle's cloud division is working to gain ground against larger rivals such as Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Corp . To get an edge, Oracle has focused on building fast networks that can shuffle around the huge amount of data needed to create AI systems similar to ChatGPT.

Oracle:

*********************************
The University Page

Link here.

Great update here.

Headlines -- November Inflation Report -- "Just Okay" -- December 12, 2023

Locator: 46283HEADLINES.

Personal investing, today:

• I've removed UBER from my "tech bucket." Replaced with ORCL. 
• I maintain only 20 different tickers in my new money positions
• gradually re-balancing my entire portfolio as I begin to very, very slow decrease by fossil fuel exposure
  
• will buy:
• AVGO, ORCL, WMT, XOM
• this is a change; I had planned to go all in with MSFT this month
  
• will sell:
• PFE: IRA RMD; inconsequential but I believe this is the last of my PFE holdings

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

 *********************************
Headlines

Usual disclaimers apply:

• done quickly
• errors: typographical and content

Inflation numbers released at 7:30 a.m. CT for November, 2023:

• WSJ: "annual inflation cooled" 
• Barron's: market rising after numbers released
  
• CPI up 0.1% vs unchanged estimate
• ex food and energy: 0.3% vs 0.3% estimate
• energy down y/y
• on track for continued inflation dropping
  
• food and shelter: both up slightly 
• used car prices went back up -- a surprise
• real earnings, inflation-adjusted: robust November
  
• Core CPI y/y: 4% vs 4% estimate
  
• market surges immediately after numbers released but then fell back; still very "green." As we get closer to opening, numbers continue to drop.
  
• Treasuries: 2-year and 10-year down
• Steve Liesman:
• comments incorporated above
• JPow: "show me the progress." Hasn't been any.
  

Right now: market appears positive with regard to JPow's speech yet to come.

What will get the Fed to move: a weakening labor market.

• analysts on unemployment: 4% unemployment is the goalpost
• as long as unemployment remains in 4% range and not trending significantly higher / faster, as long as inflation not at 2%, Fed won't cut rates

On CNBC early this morning:

• JPow starting to lose his credibility; not that he isn't cutting rates, the fact that he avoids the issue:
• Apple to give "some concessions" to the EU; and,
• Ford's plans to cut F-150 Lightning production.
• demand not there; Phil LeBeau will spin this story 
• major reversal for Ford
• 2023 sales: 20,365 
• will defer $12 billion in EV investment next year and now pushing that out
• already talking about huge loss of EV interest over the next few years
• what next for RAM and GM?
• solution: hybrids (fake EVs)
• wow -- Phil seems to be getting it ... he still comes across as a spokesperson for the US auto industry -- but then again, that's must me
  

Harvard: board remains supportive of President Claudine Gay; vote is in; she stays.

• if one understands how liberal Harvard University is / has become, this is not surprising
• UPenn is / was in a completely different situation

Today's Journalism -- December 12, 2023

Locator: 46282JOURNALISM.

Journalism 101: This boggles my mind. I may a gazillion spelling errors before finding them and correcting them.

But Newsweek misspelling Warren's last name in an article on Buffett? Wow. Speaks volumes about journalism today.

Link here. 

So, a journalist "analyzing" Warren Buffett misspells Buffett's name. Wow. I'm trying to think of something more basic. Still thinking.

More later with regard to the story.

Forecast Explains A Lot -- Jim Cramer Reads RBN Energy -- December 12, 2023

Locator: 46281ENERGY.

Forecast explains a lot:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.92.

Wednesday, December 13, 2023: 18 for the month; 167 for the quarter, 737 for the year
39716, conf, Petro-Hunt, Joel Goodsen 149-102-32C-29-1H,

Tuesday, December 12, 2023: 17 for the month; 166 for the quarter, 736 for the year
39715, conf,  Petro-Hunt, Joel Goodsen 149-102-32C-29-2H,
39312, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton-LN-153-99-1314H-1, 

RBN Energy: dock coast LPG export dock capacity maxing out; what happens to US markets? Based on his comments this morning, Jim Cramer reads RBN Energy daily.

Gulf Coast LPG export capacity is tight again, and it’s going to get worse before it gets better — terminal capacity to load more barrels of propane and butane simply has not kept up with production gains.

A number of new LPG dock expansions and greenfield projects are in the works, but they are 18 months or so away. In the meantime, production keeps rising, inventories are high, and it’s very unlikely we will see enough cold weather to balance the propane market. Bottom line: 2024 is shaping up to be a tough year for propane and butane prices. In today’s RBN blog, we examine what has been happening with exports, the looming dock capacity constraints, and the projects that will eventually relieve the imbalance. 

NGL export markets are a frequent topic in the RBN blogosphere, especially when LPG export capacity gets tight — such as the first round of export capacity constraints in 2012-16 when shale production was just kicking in, and then again in 2019-20. This year we’ve posted a number of blogs that considered the impact of increasing NGL production and the implications for exports. In Ready For It? we looked at what increases in Permian NGL production has meant for mixed NGL (aka Y-grade) takeaway capacity out of the basin — the market needs a lot more. Then, in in It's A Mystery, we questioned why, with all the new gas processing plants coming online, NGL production wasn’t growing even faster. (That mystery was solved as production statistics ramped up during the second half of the year.)