Headlines — November 29, 2023

Locator: 46205B.

Decorating: there's a real trick finding "the line" and not crossing it when decorating one's house for the Christmas holidays.

In our very well-publicized-anti-Semetic neighborhood, I find it interesting that at least one Jewish family has found that line -- perhaps the best Christmas-decorated house in the area without going over the line. The definition of irony.

Music: I'm in my "Come on Eileen," Kevin Rowland, stage. My wife does not understand. Along with everything else, Roland has superb fashion sense.

Chatterjack: official results here. Photos here.

Supply chain: minimal anecdotal evidence that Amazon, UPS, FedEx are having trouble delivering products / orders on time. Right now, this appears to be one of the smoothest sales seasons ever. Having said that, many Lego sets on back order. I order a lot through Amazon and everything is arriving as quickly as ever. Third party sellers seem to be doing well also, meeting customers’ expectations.

Streaming: amazing how much great content is available and it’s only going to get better. Tonight, watching “Mighty Planes,” S1E1, the oldest DC-10 still flying. But there must have been at least thirty other streaming options. Last night it was a JFK assassination documentary. Tomorrow night: NFL football.

Dubai: amazing how often this place shows up in stories of all kinds.

COP28: another spin.

Headlines

Apple: holy mackerel! Did I miss this story? Am I missing something? If I’m reading this correctly why is this story not getting move coverage? Anyone following QCOM? Link here. I’ll probably post this as a stand-alone post. QCOM is up 20% in the past month and represents one of my bigger tech holdings. P/E under 20; pays 2.5%. Long backstory. 

Cyber Monday: after record on-line Black Friday sales, we now have reports of on-line sales on Cyber Monday.

OXY: in talks to buy CrownRock, a Permian producer. This has been telegraphed for weeks, if not months. $12.5 billion.

Nest camera: to tell you when garage door is open. Link here.

Arm / Apple: royalties. A must-read for investors.

Google: blinks.

Santa Claus rally: Cramer called it. 

WTI: quietly trending toward $80 again. [Later: turned negative later in day when OPEC+ adjourned meeting with "no change."]

Trump gag order: reinstated by appeals court.

Big News Comes In Three -- November 29, 2023

Locator: 46204OBITS.

Charlie Munger dies this past week, age 99.

Henry Kissinger, apparently died today, age 100.

His lawyers may want to review Warren's last will and testament to make sure all the i's are dotted and all the t's crossed.

Speaking of which ...  Kamala Harris had better stick close to her phone ... and have Chief Justice John Roberts, Jr., on speed dial.

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The Tide Is High

Investing -- Rambling -- November 29, 2023

Locator: 46203INV.

I'm now spending much more time watching CNBC each day -- this will last for awhile before I become bored again and move on to something else.

Some idle chatter:

The best hour of the day on CNBC, the "Halftime Report."

It becomes tedious: all day long, "we're" told that the run-up in the market is due to seven stocks. Most of the time -- all of the time? -- it is said as if that's "bad news." Why would that be bad news? All day long one is hearing where one might want to invest. One can lead a horse to water, but ...

My take on Charlie Munger's success that applies to all of us when it comes to investing (not trading):

• never quit reading
• develop a plan    
• stick to it
• tweak the plan at least annually
• don't take unnecessary risks
• why invest in a questionable equity when there are so many great options out there
• have a very, very close friend or investing colleague with whom one can discuss investing ideas
• have an investing revenue stream
• live to be at least 85 years of age
• have a succession plan
  

I used to think Jamie Dimon was brilliant, but the more I listen to him, the more he sounds like a banker

Understand the difference between investing and trading.

Josh Brown: it's amazing. If you want, you could hire him to be your financial advisor but most of us probably couldn't/can’t afford his fees. But one can listen to him on CNBC day in, day out for "free." 

Go back and look at Peter Lynch when he was active and Warren Buffett's early years. They both had one thing in common.

There's way too much talk about recession, inflation, cost of living: one can't do anything about any of that. Give me that data at the start of each day, like a weather report, and then move on to things about which I can control. Like where to invest, and why.

Along that same line: all that talk about another rise in the Fed rate. Absolutely won't matter. And one can't do anything about that anyway. I doubt Charlie Munger thought about Fed rates when investing for the long term.

Dinner is ready. More later.

Back to Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett. When did they become rock stars? I don't know but it's pretty amazing to be a rock star for twenty-five years. If Charlie and Warren became famous twenty-five years ago, they were .... 75 years old.

The Beatles: began as a group in 1960. Their last studio album? 1969 or 1970. Barely ten years.

Peter Lynch: a rock star for thirteen years. 

Louis Rukeyser? His show ran for 32 years, but peaked around 15 years on air. 

Way, way overrated: the concept of “dry powder.” Tech companies need huge cash hoards; BRK does not. Mom-and-pop retail investors don’t need huge cash hoards. Exception (perhaps): if MMFs pay interest rates greater than what we’ve seen recently.

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Flathhead Lake, Montana

From my sister from her McMansion on Flathead Lake, today:

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report; Gasoline Demand -- Seasonal Decline -- November 29, 2023

Locator: 46202ECON.

A top story over at Drudge today:

Weekly EIA petroleum report:

• crude oil: increased by 1.6 million bbls; at 449.7 million bbls, slightly above the five-year average;
• imports: same as a year ago
• refiners: 89.8%
• distillate fuel 11% below five year average
• jet fuel product supplied was up 5.5%

Gasoline demand: seasonal decline --

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 39.

WTI: $77.86.

Two new permits, #40357 - #40358, inclusive:

• Operators: Hunt Oil; Murex Petroleum
• Fields: Ross (Mountrail); Elmore (Renville)
• Comments:
• Murex has a permit for an Emu-Annis Jeannette well in SWSE 34-164-84, 
• to be sited 1964 FNL and 2093 FEL;
• Hunt Oil has a permit for a Trulson well in NWNE 11-156-90, 
• to be sited 214 FNL and 2148 FEL;

Two permits renewed:

• 38470, Crescent, CPEUSC Riley Anne in Wheelock, Williams
• 39462, Enerplus, Checkered in South Fork, Dunn;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39352, 314, CLR, Clyde Hauge 3-13H,
• 39494, 1,820, CLR, Thaxton 6-35H,
• 39495, 1,447, CLR, Thaxton 5-35H,
• 37852, 910, Slawson, Loon Federal 7-34-25TFH,

Wells of interest:

• 22514, CLR, Thaxton 24X-35B off line;
• 22515, CLR, Thaxton 24X-35F, off line;
• 25368, CLR, Thaxton 24X-35E, off line;
• 38985, CLR, Kieffel 2-26HSL, recently fracked; now reporting production; previously reported;
• 19486, Slawson, Genesis 2-13H, off line since 10/22;

Lego -- Nothing About The Bakken -- November 29, 2023

Locator: 46201LEGO.

Lego: gotta be quick, gotta be nimble, to find incredible buys on the other side of the candle stick! LOL.

• I just found a set on Amazon for 20% off Amazon's usual price -- and compared to our local store, the Amazon price was a whopping 28.6% less.

Lego: for the grandsons -- I found two of the Lego train cars for which they were looking -- $1.00 each. Yup, $1.00 each.

CNBC: I missed the best hour of the day -- but will catch a replay (streaming) later. 

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College Football

Link here.

Think of the television revenue for these two schools.

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Electricity

Our monthly electricity bill. Our only household energy bill is this one.

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Sixty Years Ago In Dallas

I found it strange that I saw nothing about the 60th Anniversary in Dallas.

Recession? What Recession? November 29, 2023

Locator: 46200B.

Note: change for the blog regarding links.

• in the past, it was my policy to "link everything";
• now, going forward, I will not "link everything." 
• it's taking up too much time and much of what I link is readily found anyway;
•  linking "everything": no value added.

Recession:

• all predictions over the past four years for a recession by 2023 are now officially wrong/dead and seen for what they were -- a misunderstanding of the macro-economy and the real cause of inflation post-Covid;
• that's not my conclusion: that's the conclusion of most analysts
  
• now, we start over: as of November 29, 2023 I'll be the first to call it: the US is headed for another recession.

Recession: most interesting -- some analysts are coming up with their own definition of a recession

• one analyst says simply: a recession is an increase in unemployment
• by that definition, he's sure to be correct sooner than later
• and, oh, by the way, he will always be correct -- recessions are a normal part of the business cycle.
  

GDP 3Q23: came in stronger than first indicated. 

Foot Locker: shares jump 100%; earnings beat; guidance upbeat. These are $300 shoes, folks. Recession. Americans running out of cash. BNPL.

WMT: shares down today. Say what? 

European inflation: drops faster than expected.

When you lose Consumer Reports:

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Lego Trains

Lego sells "Duplo trains."

In fact, Lego sells two broad categories of "Duplo trains."

The two categories are very, very different, and are differentiated by the color of their wheels.

One type of Duplo train has cars with red wheels; the other has cars with yellow wheels. Regardless of the type of wheels, cars with either type of wheels can be hooked together.

The Duplo train set with yellow wheels is meant to be pulled / pushed across the floor and not on tracks. Having said that, the yellow-wheel sets do have their own tracks.

Our grandsons have both sets, pretty much bought by mistake not realizing the two types were not meant to be joined together to run on tracks.

The Duplo train set with red wheels can be run on Lego tracks that can be designed in endless configurations, but the yellow-wheel cars can only run on a circular configuration.

The boys were bored with just running their trains in a circle.

Our grandsons were quite frustrated that not all their cars ran on tracks. If you look at the size of the wheels one can see why (yellow: very wide with dual flange; re: narrower with a single flange).

Our grandsons, age 3.5 years, noted:

• both types of cars (red wheels / yellow wheels) can run on flat, straight track of either kind, and both types of tracks can fit together;
• but the wider, double-flanged-yellow-wheel cars cannot run on curved tracks or bridges.

How do we know this?

Without any help from any adult, they put all their tracks together to make a large irregular oval. By trial and error (no doubt), they removed the curves/bridges of one type and replaced them with curves/bridges of the other type and managed to come up with a design that cars of both types could run on the irregular oval.  

This was their result. Note the mix of two type of track sections:

Note that cars with both types of wheels are running on the track.

Brilliant.

Eight Wells Coming Off Confidential List These Next Two Days -- The Bakken Keeps On Rollin' -- November 29, 2023

Locator: 46200B. 

Comments: some really, really good comments by Josh Brown yesterday regarding rate cuts, another rate increase. Really, really good comments.

Chattajack 2023: this deserves a stand-alone post; maybe later.

• photographs;
• our daughter's name is on the results page; first time she ever raced; ever, anywhere;
• course records.

Travel: we spent upwards of 15 years in Europe; it was awesome. Articles like this make me want to return to Europe. But, it won't happen. Sad. Link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $75.88.

Wednesday, November 29, 2023: 144 for the month; 144 for the quarter, 714 for the year
39174, conf, Liberty Resources, Sylvia N 158-93-16-14-4MBHX,
39172, conf, Liberty Resources, Alton N Federal 158-93-16-14-2MBHX,
39171, conf, Liberty Resources, Alton N 158-93-16-14-1MBHX,
37110, conf, BR, Carlsbad 4A UTFH,

Tuesday, November 28, 2023: 140 for the month; 140 for the quarter, 710 for the year
39820, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matilda May 6A-29-32-158N-1000W-MBH-LL,
39814, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 10-18H2,
39145, conf, Enerplus, LK Bice 147-96-6-31-2H,
37109, conf, BR, Carlsbad 3D MBH,

RBN Energy: For Florida, a proposed "rolling pipeline" for refined products.

Florida is entirely dependent on others for the vast amounts of refined products it consumes — every gallon of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel that’s pumped into cars, SUVs, trucks, locomotives and airplanes in the Sunshine State needs to be either shipped or trucked in. Now, a midstream company is planning a project that would enable large volumes of refined products to be railed into Florida by unit trains to three new storage and distribution terminals — and eventually several more. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the plan. 

Florida is the third-largest state in the U.S. by population after California and Texas, with more than 22 million residents, the vast majority of whom depend on gasoline or diesel to get around. On average, Floridians drive a collective 650 million miles a day, or enough to get Elon Musk to the moon and back more than 1,300 times. And speaking of hurtling through space, Florida is #2 — behind only California — in its consumption of jet fuel, a fact that will come as no surprise to anyone who has flown into or out of Orlando or Miami.