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Tuesday, November 21, 2023

Wow, Wow, Wow -- BRK Gained Nearly 17% Y/Y -- November 21, 2023

Locator: 46130NVDA.

From CNBC today:

Berkshire owns a vast array of well-established businesses, ranging from its crown-jewel Geico insurance to BNSF Railway to about 6% of Apple.

Shares of the conglomerate have gained nearly 17% this year after hitting an all-time high in September.

Wow, wow, wow, shares of BRK have gained nearly 17% this year after hitting an all-time high in September. Think about that. Seventeen percent in one year. A genius.

Let's look at Nvidia:

Yup, that 17% is pretty impressive. 

It gets tedious.

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The Mother Road

Route 66.

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Headlines

Sam Altman; back in as CEO, OpenAI.

GM: won’t be advertising during Super Bowl.

Angus Bull Sales: it appears the “season” for Angus Bull Sales has begun. Link here.

Politics: more and more, it appears Trump’s candidacy is gaining more and more traction, not less, despite the ongoing court cases accusing Trump of wrongdoing. 

State supreme courts, in state after state, are throwing out cases attempting to keep Trump’s name off state ballots for US president. 
Tonight, it was announced that the last remaining US House seat was won by a Trump supporter in Utah, beating out a “moderate” Democrat. (Was there ever any doubt?) 
Right now, the polls suggest Trump would steamroll into the White House in a race against the incumbent but those are just polls. How the election would actually unfold is a completely different story. There’s at least one wedge issue that might be key in a Biden upset.

Boston Red Linenine slow zones eliminated.

The Bad News Keeps Coming -- EVs -- November 21, 2023

Locator: 46128EVS.

Longer. Much longer. Link here.

Demand will continue to drop: link here.

Posted in this past 48 hours:

Locator: 46121EVS. 

That was Jim Cramer's comment this morning -- "this is the high water mark for EVs," about 8:30 a.m. CT on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street," with Jim Cramer, Carl Quintanilla, and David Faber. 

Faber ,with some light banter, pushed back on Cramer's comment. Cramer sounded more serious than Faber who simply called GM's Cruise setback a speed bump.

From the blog yesterday:

  • Fake EVs: taking market share. 
  • EVsfor the urban rich. Very rich. You and I don’t make the cut.
  • EVs: three articles to be linked in a.m. All three were “front-page” articles in The WSJ.
Cybertruck: deliveries to begin November 30, 2023, a Thursday, exactly one week after Thanksgiving.
 
Today, those three articles on the "front page" of yesterday's WSJ:




All this in the last 24 hours. Twenty-four hours. And the UAW is now running GM, Ford, and Stellantis.

Three New Permits; Four DUCs Reported Completed -- November 21, 2023

Locator: 46127B. 

Weekly API data: OPEC is in deep trouble --

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Back to the Bakken

Locator: 46127B.

WTI: $77.66.

Active rigs: 36.

Three new permits, #40350 - #40352, inclusive:

  • Operators: KODA Resources, Grayson Mill
  • Fields: Fertile Valley (Divide County); Briar Creek (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Grayson Mill has a permit for a Sponheim well in NWSW 32-152-104, 
      • to be sited 1605 FSL and 293 FWL
    • KODA Resources has permits for two Stout wells SESW 14-160-102, 
      • both to be sited 326 FSL with one 1995 FWL and the other 1960 FWL

Six oil & gas permits renewed:

  • Petro-Hunt (6): six USA wells in Charlson oil field, McKenzie County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

36630, 1,227, XTO, Arnold 21X-17BXC, Tobacco Garden,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20232323125228721654040310374401434
BAKKEN8-20232003060000
  • 38225, n/d, MRO, Foolish Bear USA 11-16H, Four Bears,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20232978187808766127184270209
BAKKEN8-202331975997469494335733338025
BAKKEN7-202331116841176910930393963920427
BAKKEN6-202330151691513213777463454606452
BAKKEN5-2023312242922474215575203851649165
BAKKEN4-2023302941329191220804419343325673
BAKKEN3-2023172776272919902619257135
  • 38226, 2,848, MRO, Coleman USAA 11-16TFH, Four Bears,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202329141961419411339355153530312
BAKKEN8-202331185271857214541453524509534
BAKKEN7-202331268302678918887554365517237
BAKKEN6-202323211222107515320315893140434
BAKKEN5-2023313166331599238443990639617123
BAKKEN4-2023292753027886259693676636050555
BAKKEN3-2023263625035642312954381942999599
  • 38227, n/d, MRO, Herzig USA 11-16H, Four Bears,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023288317827460002495824031611
BAKKEN8-202331121291212987133822237285541
BAKKEN7-2023311503515204100223829837804105
BAKKEN6-202330159961578597703015029657131
BAKKEN5-2023312297622977139713274432229124
BAKKEN4-2023241868218222139002431823193876

Nvidia -- NVDA -- 3Q23 Earnings

Locator: 46126NVDA. 

 
Barron’s: link here. For serious investors, NVDA needs to be part of their portfolios.

Barron's: link here

From a Martin Peers' newsletter:

As the tech world remained riveted by the OpenAI soap opera, the real artificial intelligence money machine was demonstrating the fine art of printing greenbacks.
That would be Nvidia, which reported on Tuesday that its revenue soared 206% in the October quarter, to $18.1 billion from $5.9 billion a year earlier.
That’s what happens when you essentially corner the market for the specialized AI chips that are a must-have commodity for tech firms right now. And this growth is continuing.
Nvidia projected that revenue would soar to $20 billion in the January quarter, which would be an increase of 230% over the year-earlier number of $6.05 billion.
Just to give a sense of how much Nvidia’s business has mushroomed in the past couple of years, that projection implies Nvidia’s full fiscal year revenue will be around $59 billion, more than its combined revenue for the previous two fiscal years
Notably, Nvidia Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress told analysts the fourth-quarter projection would have been higher if the Biden administration hadn’t restricted chip sales to China!
In other words, Nvidia is making bank right now, but it could be doing even better. That wrinkle likely explains why the stock—which is up 242% so far this year—inched down a little after hours. (For more on Nvidia’s results, see here.)

The WSJ: the link.

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Earnings Announcement

Prior to earnings announcement

  • NVDA: Whisper: $3.47. Consensus: $3.18. Consensus revenue: $16.12 billion.
Actual:
The chipmaker reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.02 on revenue of $18.12 billion, both of which topped analyst expectations. Analysts had expected adjusted earnings per share to tally $3.36 on revenue of $16.1 billion.
Third quarter revenue increased 34% from the prior quarter and 206% from year ago, reflecting how increased demand for AI has boosted the company's sales throughout 2023.



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Watching Nvidia Move From The Bat Cave



Holiday Traveling -- Gasoline Demand Surges -- November 21, 2023

Locator: 46125ECON.

From Charles Kennedy

Corroborates the theme of the blog. 

NOG -- Announces Bolt-On Acquisitions -- November 21, 2023

Locator: 46124NOG.

Press release

HIGHLIGHTS 

  • bolt-on acquisitions of core non-operated working interest properties in the Northern Delaware and Appalachian Basins for a combined initial purchase price of $170 million in cash and 107,657 shares of common stock
  • combined average expected 2024 production of ~6,500 Boe per day (26% oil, 2-stream) 
  • combined cash flow from operations for the acquisitions expected to be $57.5 - $62.5 million in 2024, representing a 2.8 - 3.0x purchase price multiple 
  • expecting approximately $33 - $38 million in total 2024 capital expenditures on the combined assets 
  • NOG has existing ownership interests in approximately 90% of the Delaware Basin leasehold 
  • transactions expected to be accretive to key financial metrics in 2024 and on a multi-year basis 
  • acquisitions to be financed with cash on hand, operating free cash flow and borrowings under NOG’s revolving credit facility 
  • NOG hedged a portion of the expected production on a multi-year basis, at higher than current pricing levels, prior to signing 

Coincidentally, earlier today: 

RBN Energy: Williams' Transco Corridor expansions give Appalachian gas producers a way out. Archived.

Appalachian natural gas producers got good news earlier this month: Williams announced it was moving forward with the Southeast Supply Enhancement project, a large-scale expansion of southbound capacity out of the Northeast on its Transco Pipeline system.

Not only that, but it super-sized the project to 1.4 Bcf/d of capacity — nearly double the 800 MMcf/d it had offered in an open season held this summer.

The project is one of several brownfield expansions planned to provide additional supply access in Transco’s premium Zone 5 market area, which runs through Virginia and North Carolina — and the first large-scale takeaway expansion to be announced in the area since the long-delayed Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) was cleared for completion following years of regulatory and legal hurdles.

In today’s RBN blog, we provide the latest on the Transco Corridor expansions.

When it comes to midstream development in the Northeast, Appalachian gas producers have learned by now not to hold their breath.

The region is notorious for its staunch environmental opposition to hydrocarbon infrastructure projects and its propensity for sending gas pipeline projects to the trash pile. However, against all odds, midstream development in the region has thawed in recent months, in large part spurred by the unlikely advancement of MVP (dashed blue-and-black line in Figure 1), the long-embattled project to move up to 2 Bcf/d from the Appalachia gas supply basin to the Transco Corridor.

AI Non-Profits Fade Away -- November 21, 2023

Locator: 46123AI.

OpenAI. Go woke, go broke.

Having said that, this is an incredibly good Journal article on Sam Altman and AI. Absolutely incredible. It is starting to make sense. It's very possible two months from now it may seem like nothing ever happened, though Microsoft and Google are scrambling; Apple, Meta are watching with fascination; and, there's a very, very real possibility there will be a huge re-arrangement of the AI landscape by the end of the year -- about six weeks from now. 

One constant: everyone is going to need a lot of chips.

Nvidia's 3Q23 earnings to be released after market close today.

Tea leaves: "non-profits" in AI fade away.

Update On Williams' Transco Corridor -- Bakken Steady -- WTI Holds -- November 21, 2023

Locator: 46122B.

Personal investing, today --

  • bought WMT
  • bought BA
  • bought NOG -- initial 
  • sold nothing

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

"High water mark" for EVs: link here. Love him or hate him, he's provocative, insightful, quick, masterful with the memes -- FANG, Magnificent Seven -- and, now, "High Water Mark" for EVs. Right, wrong, indifferent, he will start the conversation.

Gasoline prices continue to fall.

Gaza: I understand the pressure to agree to a cease-fire to release the hostages but for the life of me, I don't see the endgame for either. Is Hamas leadership hoping to sneak some of their members out with the hostages? Strange.

Portland school strike: turns out it really was all about the money -- money for teachers' salaries -- had nothing to do with "better" environment for students. Combine this wish a year lost during the Covid lockdown and now this, it's not been a good couple of years for Portland's students.


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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $77.64.

Wednesday, November 22, 2023: 128 for the month; 128 for the quarter, 698 for the year
39775, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 5-18H2,
39080, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-9,

Tuesday, November 21, 2023: 126 for the month; 126 for the quarter, 696 for the year
39776, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 5-18H2,

RBN Energy: Williams' Transco Corridor expansions give Appalachian gas producers a way out. Archived.

Appalachian natural gas producers got good news earlier this month: Williams announced it was moving forward with the Southeast Supply Enhancement project, a large-scale expansion of southbound capacity out of the Northeast on its Transco Pipeline system. Not only that, but it super-sized the project to 1.4 Bcf/d of capacity — nearly double the 800 MMcf/d it had offered in an open season held this summer. The project is one of several brownfield expansions planned to provide additional supply access in Transco’s premium Zone 5 market area, which runs through Virginia and North Carolina — and the first large-scale takeaway expansion to be announced in the area since the long-delayed Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) was cleared for completion following years of regulatory and legal hurdles. In today’s RBN blog, we provide the latest on the Transco Corridor expansions.

When it comes to midstream development in the Northeast, Appalachian gas producers have learned by now not to hold their breath. The region is notorious for its staunch environmental opposition to hydrocarbon infrastructure projects and its propensity for sending gas pipeline projects to the trash pile. However, against all odds, midstream development in the region has thawed in recent months, in large part spurred by the unlikely advancement of MVP (dashed blue-and-black line in Figure 1), the long-embattled project to move up to 2 Bcf/d from the Appalachia gas supply basin to the Transco Corridor.

"High Water Mark" -- EVs -- Jim Cramer -- CNBC -- November 21, 2023

Locator: 46121EVS. 

That was Jim Cramer's comment this morning -- "this is the high water mark for EVs," about 8:30 a.m. CT on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street," with Jim Cramer, Carl Quintanilla, and David Faber. 

Faber ,with some light banter, pushed back on Cramer's comment. Cramer sounded more serious than Faber who simply called GM's Cruise setback a speed bump.

From the blog yesterday:

  • Fake EVs: taking market share. 
  • EVsfor the urban rich. Very rich. You and I don’t make the cut.
  • EVs: three articles to be linked in a.m. All three were “front-page” articles in The WSJ.
Cybertruck: deliveries to begin November 30, 2023, a Thursday, exactly one week after Thanksgiving.
 
Today, those three articles on the "front page" of yesterday's WSJ:




All this in the last 24 hours. Twenty-four hours. And the UAW is now running GM, Ford, and Stellantis.