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Tuesday, November 14, 2023

Tell Me Again: We're In A Recession (Charlie Munger) -- November 14, 2023

Locator: 46053INV. 

Schwab: our local Schwab office -- and specifically our personal Schwab broker -- hosts a monthly luncheon -- Investing 101 and Market Updates -- about twenty folks are invited --for the past year it's been interesting to watch the number of investors incredibly concerned about the future of the market; it will be interesting to see the (expected) "sea change" later this month.

Big story: today, if listening to CNBC all day long -- CNBC generally very, very negative -- everything points to an incredible 2024. We may be in best "investing configuration" we've seen in a very, very, very long time.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey: holy mackerel — up 9.1% when expectations were a minus 0.9%. Bidenomics? Link here.

Houses: mortgage demand highest in five months.

Target: earnings smash estimates.

Right now, overnight futures: hold.


Wow, this gets tedious. The WSJ.

No sign of recession or stagflation: The WSJ

Wholesale prices: fall 0.5% for greatest monthly decline since April 2020 — that’s three and a half years.
Wholesale prices in October posted their biggest decline in 2½ years, providing another indication that the worst of the inflation surge may have passed. 
The producer price index, which measures final-demand costs for businesses, declined 0.5% for the month, against expectations for a 0.1% from the Dow Jones consensus.
The department said that was the biggest monthly decline since April 2020. Excluding food and energy, core PPI was unchanged, also below the forecast for a 0.3% increase. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index increased 0.1%.

UK inflation: unexpectedly plummets. Lowest in two years.
 

UAW pact: update. More and more tea leaves suggest we're back to square one.

Polestar: update. One word: claustrophobic.

Volvo: update. Also, here.

The Market -- November 14, 2023

Locator: 46052INV.  

At the close:

CNBC is saying -- this is not me -- this is CNBC saying this -- all those folks that loaded up on MMFs to get 5% over the next year are now getting FOMO ....

The market has gone nowhere for two years ... we've had two bear markets in the past year --- the onus is now on the bears to prove we're headed for a recession. [Some will push back and the onus is on the bulls to keep the rally going.] So, we'll see.

Director's Cut To Be Released at 3:00 PM CT Today ---- September, 2023, Data

Locator: 46051CUT.  

Link here. Twitter summary.

Link here. Not viewable on my Apple laptop using the Firefox browser.

Director's Cuts are tracked here

Disclaimer applies. 

DUCs and wells off-line for operational reasons tracked here.

Producing wells: 18,179 -- new all-time high (July, 2023)

  • new all-time high, this month, September, 2023: 18,538 producing wells (preliminary)
    • the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources reported the state had 18,396 producing wells in August, 2023.
  • gas capture, statewide: 95% (down 1% m/m)

Highlights.

  • active rigs
    • today: 35
    • October: 33
    • September: 37
    • 37: August, 2023
    • 37: July, 2023
    • 37: June, 2023
    • expected to rise to the mid-forties with gradual increase over next two years;
  • crude oil production: 
    • September, 2023: 1,278,190 (+44.56%)
    • August, 2023: 1,223,617 (+3.3%)
    • July, 2023: 1,180,692 (+1%)
    • June, 2023: 1,166,604 bopd
    • May, 2023: 1,135,009 bopd
  • crude price (ND light sweet):
    • today: $72.55
    • September, 2023: $83.07
    • August, 2023: $77.15
    • July, 2023: $70.35.
    • June, 2023: $64.18
    • May, 2023; $65.82
  • natural gas:
    • September, 2023: 3,4440,284 MCF / day -- new all-time high
    • August, 2023: 3,312,919 MCF/day (+0.3%)
    • July, 2023: 3,292,150 MCF/day (+1%)
    • June, 2023: 3,247,513 MCF/day
    • May, 2023: 3,156,883 MCF/day
  • wells permitted:
    • October: 77
    • September: 59
    • August: 87
    • July: 70
    • June: 85
    • May: 63
    • April: 89
  • DUCs:
    • September: 367
    • August: 376
    • July: 419
    • June: 433
    • May: 459
    • April: 458
  • inactive:
    • September: 1,547
    • August: 1,624
    • July: 1,665
    • June: 1,693
    • May: 1,779
    • April, 1,899
  • completed:
    • October: 96 (preliminary)
    • September: 129 (preliminary)
    • August: 91
    • July: 83
    • June: 85 
    • May: 138 
    • April: 51 
  • producing: 
    • September, 2023: 18,538 (preliminary; new all-time high)
    • August, 2023: 18,396 (yet another new all-time high)
    • July, 2023: 18,179 (new all-time high)
    • June, 2023: 18,101 (new all-time high)
    • May, 2023: 17,9292 (new all-time)
    • April: 17,768

MRO's Deuce Pad In Bailey Oil Field -- November 14, 2023

Locator: 46050MRODEUCE.   

This should be fun. Let's walk through this together.

First, the first map:


Now, why am I interested in those five wells? Look at these two maps:



With all those confidential wells on that 12-well pad, let's see if there might be something to indicate any activity.

Now, let's look at those five wells:

#1: Bob Tuhy OFFLINE

  • 16666, 1,374, MRO, Bob Tuhy 44-19H, Bailey, t11/08; cum 519K 2/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20230000000
BAKKEN8-20230000000
BAKKEN7-20230000000
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-20232718171935719207701774
BAKKEN1-20233119791948813227401930
BAKKEN12-20223119581976935223901904

#2: Olson HUGE JUMP IN PRODUCTION

  • 17417, 376, MRO, Olson 14-20H, Bailey, t12/08; cum 443K 9/23:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023301283112824571261354813330181
BAKKEN8-202328100361008246841103201023352
BAKKEN7-2023171361313533830991350313317128
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-2023311336139667026962286112
BAKKEN2-2023281244123657324061943187
BAKKEN1-2023311181109956723341754301

#3: Corinne Olson

  • 19118, PA/TA, MRO, Corrine Olson 34-20, Bailey,

#4: C.O. HUGE JUMP IN PRODUCTION

  • 23699, 1,374, MRO, C.O. 34-20H, Bailey, t11/12; cum 387K 9/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023301818118177515061681016543222
BAKKEN8-202329160171597060777144951437473
BAKKEN7-2023311561149186849829699
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-2023724437912832224118
BAKKEN1-202331114511266321459110064
BAKKEN12-202230109710666341316897151

#5: MRO, Klay Carlson OFFLINE

  • 23980, 576, MRO, Klay Carlson 41-29TFH, Bailey, t6/13; cum 220K 5/23:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20230000000
BAKKEN8-20230000000
BAKKEN7-20230000000
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-2023257387949201042735101
BAKKEN4-20232890984611151256594427
BAKKEN3-20233111541159144617681265221
BAKKEN2-20232710031026114915231097191
BAKKEN1-20233112081216144218301358186

 The twelve-pad updated:

16666, see above,

39361, drl/drl, MRO, Skip 31-29H, Bailey,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023292863228573295412438824003320
BAKKEN8-2023795279495139746928687134
  • 39368, drl/drl, MRO, Red 31-29TFH, Bailey,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202329158861589230121391813698183
BAKKEN8-20231516898168420147041458273
  • 39369, drl/drl, MRO, Amber 31-29H, Bailey,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023291215712160440131142911247151
BAKKEN8-2023161259712555569569546946847
  • 39370, drl/conf, MRO, Deuce 21-29TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 49K 9/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023302505625056505992011919804262
BAKKEN8-202321236232354457269164541632081
  • 39371, drl/conf, MRO, Thompson 44-20TFH, Bailey, NPD,
  • 39372, drl/A, MRO, Sandra 44-20TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 12/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023302360723581465392091420583275
BAKKEN8-202323145921454335900140421392471
  • 39373, drl/A, MRO, Louise 34-20TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 67K 9/23
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023303344333449394883095730465409
BAKKEN8-2023253358233470464323070330447154
BAKKEN7-20232002000
  • 39374, drl/A, MRO, Peggy 24-20H, Bailey, t--; cum 89K 9/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023292783427886314122971029234396
BAKKEN8-2023314182641801431063730136990187
BAKKEN7-202361949519380222981460014402136
  • 39375, drl/A, MRO, Beth 24-20TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 79K 9/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023303229932295457243378533244450
BAKKEN8-2023302928629291383653025229998153
BAKKEN7-202381744017337253031690616673160
  • 39376, drl/A, MRO, Whalen 14-20H, Bailey, t--; cum 126K 9/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023303811838137349743597735405476
BAKKEN8-2023294199142120451043944839119198
BAKKEN7-2023304567445405674864465244038422
  • 39377, drl/A, MRO, Leah 14-200TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 80K 9/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023302275622732329592477024372331
BAKKEN8-202323144971470023699140021388471
BAKKEN7-2023234273542484542003893538401367

BRK-B Vs The S&P 500

Locator: 46049BRK.  

The charts:



Cash hoard? Why?

Nvidia:



 

On another note: this is why I don't favor restricting members of Congress from investing just like the rest of us: see this post

Did AAPL get back to a $3-trillion market cap? Nope, close but no cigar:

Based on these numbers, it looks like AAPL needs to hit $193 / share to get back to a $3-trillion market cap.

The Market Today -- A "Goldilocks" Economy -- November 14, 2023

Locator: 46048INV.   

 Clearly this is a day that one needs to watch the entire twelve hours of CNBC.

I've never seen this before: literally, in the middle of "Power Lunch," the host halted the discussion and was dumbfounded to see the Russell 2000 up 5%. That just never happens.

The tone of the discussion changed completely. 

One might argue "irrational exuberance," but that's something one never sees on CNBC. Wow.

It was most fun seeing fund managers trying to explain why they have been on the sidelines and continue to remain on the sidelines out of an abundance of caution. Okay.

But today, the big anchors on CNBC all agreed: there is something different about today's market.

Folks who focus on a recession seem to forget that "everyone" is now working (many with jobs), and "everyone" is making money.

For investors, the market today provides an opportunity one seldom sees. 

I have some thoughts on investing in this market, but this is not an investment site, so I will not post those thoughts.

Perhaps more as the day progresses. 

**********************


Wow, there has been a lot of great commentary today.

The huge takeaways:

  • a classic bull market since 2012
  • already in a Santa Claus rally
  • too many folks have mis-allocated too much of their portfolio into cash (my favorite chart)
  • investors don't need the Fed to lower rates; the economy is managing very, very well
  • those on fixed income are doing well

Inflation — Recession — Disinflation — Soft Landing — November 14, 2023

Locator: 46047INV.  

Personal investing:

  • sold MRK
  • will buy BA
  • bought DVN

Disinflation: food. Exactly what I said a couple of days ago on the blog. It seems like prices have simply re-set.

Inflation: it may not have been transitory but it sure didn’t last long in the big scheme of things. So far, we have all survived. And some investors have never done so well. For two years, a buying opportunity.

Home Depot: CEO got it exactly right this morning.

Cramer: big smile. Huge fan of JPow. Agree completely.

Futures surging.

CPI: a lot will be written about this today. For the archives: came in lower than expected. Albeit, barely.

Shelter: this was the real crack today --- and that's leading to rational exuberance in the market today.

NVDA: continues to be the big story. “The Magnificent Seven”: still the market.

Foxconn: surprise earnings report.

Xi-Biden on tap.

Rivian: story to follow. Will need to raise huge amounts of money. New factory in Georgia. “Big Three” “losing money through their eyeballs.” — Cramer.

Oil: we'll come back to these two stories later, if I remember. 

From a week ago

S&P: blew through 4,400. Whoo-hoo!

More later but until then, this chart. This chart is not for this year: this is a 30-year historical pattern which will probably be entirely different this year according to reader feedback.

RACE: this is the only auto company in which I invest.


Schwab: today we're bringing our broker a bottle of champagne, a couple of stemless champagne flutes, and some nice chocolate with a note of congratulations for the successful acquisition of TDAmeritrade. It's been a challenging (horrendous) year but at least it's over and, going forward, things should be much, much better. I'm watching all the Schwab / Think or Swim ads on television -- generally during NFL games. I don't trade so I've never been interested in a "trading platform" but so many folks have so many good things to say about Think or Swim, I may have to take a look.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.82. Nothing wrong with that. And moving higher today.

No wells coming off confidential list today.

One inconsequential well comes off list tomorrow. 

RBN Energy: Enterprise's multifaceted plan for dealing with the coming deluge of Permian NGLs. Archived.

Crude-oil-focused production growth in the Permian is generating increasing volumes of associated gas that need to be processed and mixed NGLs that need to be piped to Mont Belvieu, fractionated and exported. All that suggests the need for still more infrastructure — processing plants, NGL pipelines, fractionators and export facilities — and Enterprise Products Partners, a top-tier NGL midstreamer, recently laid out a multibillion-dollar plan to help Permian producers keep pace. 

In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the new set of projects Enterprise has in the works. We recently concluded a seven-part series on the handful of large U.S. midstream companies with the sequential assets — the NGL networks — capable of taking NGL molecules from wellheads in the Permian and other liquids-rich plays to the ultimate U.S. recipients of NGL purity products, be they petrochemical plants, refineries, propane distributors, or NGL export terminals. And wouldn’t you know it, Enterprise followed up our series with a blockbuster announcement of perhaps the most comprehensive set of new NGL-related infrastructure projects in years.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source