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Monday, November 13, 2023

November, 2023, Dashboards Posted

Locator: 46046DASHBOARDS.  

EIA Dashboards:

Monday Night -- November 13, 2023

Locator: 46045TESLA. 

This needs to be fact-checked.


US LNG Export: could double by 2027.

ABBA: can never get enough of ABBA. NFL MNF or ABBA tonight? It’s ABBA. No contest.

Gaza: unless one searches for Gaza news, it’s amazing how little coverage there actually is. Headline news coverage. Headline Gaza news is mostly of political protests around the world.

Bittersweet memories tonight of past lives. It didn’t help that I’ve subscribed to a monthly British glossy of military aircraft. 

Investing: it’s just not that hard. Investing, not trading. With a 30-year horizon with s focus on one’s grandchildren. See this note on AMEX at this link. Now, see this note: Delta / AMEX. It’s not that difficult. Now, look at what Apple is doing. Or Walmart. Or Boeing. 

ABBA: can never get enough of ABBA. Say what? What about Linda Ronstadt?  Okay, it depends.

Pickleball? Link here. Yup. Everywhere in the DFW area, we may have the largest pickleball complex just down the street from where we live.

Thanksgiving travel: could be third busiest ever.

John Prine: at his best, none better.

Rate cuts: coming sooner than most people think — not the Fed — but banks. Source. Link here. I’m ready. And here but now it’s the Fed.

Road trip: hitting records.

Why Nvidia is winning. Why Apple will win: link here. Mediocrity is “out.” The best will be rewarded. Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom, TSM, MSFT.

Six New Permits; One Permit Renewed; Ten DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 13, 2023

Locator: 46044B.  

Fisker: all last week and through the weekend there were “predictions” that Fisker would surprise on the upside -- wow, talk about planted stories -- today, the earnings report -- the company missed and withheld guidance. Investors were so excited about the reports last week that during normal trading hours, Fisker closed up 7%. After hours? Not so good: down 14%. One link here but the story is everywhere. 

The CEO remains very, very optimistic.

The numbers:

  • revenue: $72 million vs forecast of $109 million; The WSJ; said expectations were a forecast of $143 million; one year earlier: revenue of $14,000 (no typo)
  • EPS: (27 cents) wider than the forecast (19) cents; one year earlier, EPS (49 cents) per share.
    • net loss of ($91 million) for 3Q23 vs a forecast off a ($69 million) loss

I don't think the linked CNBC article noted this but The WSJ did:

  • the company previously set a production target of at least 20,000 vehicles, but in fact delivered about 1,000;

Fisker did not provide new guidance.

Other data points:

  • based in Manhattan Beach, California
  • the company delayed its quarterly report -- attributing the change to the departure of its chief accounting officer in late October;
  • a new accounting officer reportedly began work this past week 

Wind: Charles Kennedy is reporting -- 

Danish offshore wind developer Orsted has officially withdrawn from a consortium set to bid on Norwegian offshore wind projects just days after pulling out of two U.S. offshore wind projects, Reuters reports, citing one of the consortium partners. The withdrawal comes just two days before Norway’s November 15, 2023, deadline to submit pre-qualification interests for the building of up to 1.5 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity. 

Separately, Orsted told Reuters by email that it was no longer prioritizing offshore wind development in Norway. Earlier in November, Orsted walked away from U.S. offshore wind projects, citing soaring costs, supply chain issues and high interest rates.

Prior to withdrawing from the U.S. projects, Orsted CEO Mads Nipper told Bloomberg that the Biden administration needed to guarantee more support for the projects at a time when soaring inflation was undermining the renewable energy sector.

Orsted would have received at least 30% tax credits under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA); however, the company had asked the Biden administration to guarantee subsidies without the domestic content requirement as well as requesting more time to source U.S.-made materials due to supply chain bottlenecks.

In late August, Orsted warned that it could face up to $2.3 billion in impairments on the U.S. projects.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.53.

Active rigs: 35.

Six new permits, #40331 - $40336, inclusive:

  • Operators: Grayson Mill (5); CLR
  • Fields: Briar Creek (McKenzie County); St Demetrius (Billings County)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has a permit for a Dahle well SWSW 25-142-99, 
      • to be sited 425 FSL and 420 FWL;
    • Grayson Mill has permits for three Hopes wells and two Sponheim wells, lot 4, section 30-152-104, 
      • to be sited between 800 FSL and 980 FSL; and between 298 FWL and 303 FWL

One permit renewed:

  • 29953, Murex, Evar P. Skari, Sandrocks, McKenzie County;

Ten producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 39372, 1,241, MRO, Sandra 44-20TFH, tracked here;
  • 39373, 3,070, MRO, Louise 34-20TFHtracked here;
  • 39375, 2,468, MRO, Beth 24-20TFH, tracked here;
  • 39570, 6, Challenger Point Energy, Jacobsen 13-6, a Madison well, I believe.
  • 39571, n/d, Challenger Point Energy, Jacobsen 11-6, a Madison well, I believe.
  • 37694, 0, BR, Lone Beaver 2-1-17TFH,
  • 37695, 117, BR, Lone Beaver 4-1-17MBH,
  • 37696, 100, BR, Lone Beaver 5-1-17TFH,
  • 37925, 0, BR, Lone Beaver 1-1-17MTFH
  • 37956, 1,130, CLR, Brangus FIU 3-11H2, (Brangus wells tracked here);

Breaking! November 13, 2023

Locator: 46043ECON.  

Just saying.


Ford: I talked about this during the strike and my comments foreshadowed this headline. Link here.

On an up day for the Dow, Ford is down half-a-percent, trading at $9.81.

Other Headlines

 John Sverdrup: John Sverdrup update.

Meth: Meanwhile, this story first appeared in The NYT. Somehow, maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think sterile needles and clean pipes are much of an answer. 

Covid-19:

India:

Nvidia Announcement -- November 13, 2023

Locator: 46042NVIDIA.  

Wow, NVDA up. It was negative at the open. Now up.

NVDA: my benchmark is BRK-B. Warren's benchmark is the S&P 500. It is very possible, BRK-B is one of my worst performing stocks y/y and five years / five years, and almost all my stocks pay healthy dividends, whereas BRK-B pays no dividends.

It may be of interest, that of the five top tech stocks, four are down in early morning trading; one is up -- Nvidia, and up significantly.

  • AMD: down almost 2%;
  • INTC: down 1.63%
  • MU: down 2%

You can't stop a train, as the commercial goes.

Link here. The story just broke.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.  

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

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ICYMI The First Time Around

Boeing: pays 8.65%. I find it amazing the Fast Money folks seem to find it hard to find stocks to recommend. And Buffett? Don’t even get me started.

Boeing: China last new order from Boeing was back in 2017. 

Pelosi: visit to Taiwain, August, 2022, set diplomatic efforts back significantly. Diplomatic relations between China and US probably at record low right now. Biden et al are trying to get this back on track.

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A Musical Interlude

Years ago, I was spending a lot of time in northern England / Yorkshire. It was a life-altering period in my life.

It reminded me of Goethe's trip to Italy in his middle age.

Among so many things that changed my life was this, Arvo Pärt:

Reporting This Week; Corn At Three-Year Lows -- November 13, 2023

Locator: 46041INV. 

Corn futures: 3-year low. On back of record corn production. Due to warm weather, longer growing season, adequate fertilizer, better genetic strains, adequate water. 

From FRED today:



Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source

Monday — November 13, 2023

Locator: 46040HEADLINES. 

Personal investing: today --

  • bought AAPL (in its own bucket)
  • bought NVDA (in the tech bucket)
  • bought BA (in the big cap / dividend bucket)
  • will sell nothing

AAPL: if AAPL goes green today, even by a penny, it's going to be a huge day.

Collapse of the Russian Navy: the four-seas problem -- Peter Zeihan.

Used cars: those high prices? Yeah, like the price of eggs — transitory.

  • used car prices have fallen to their lowest levels since April 2021
  • the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index has extended its maximum drawdown to -18%, the largest in index history
  • used car demand is waning as borrowing rates for used cars have surged to 7.3%, sparking an affordability crisis.
  • with used car prices at the top of the list causing inflation, the fall in used car prices (and the drop in rent increases) has probably done the most to head off another rate increase

Used car pricing: so you had to wait a year ... well, la de da ... from November 7, 2023

  • sedans down 16% y/y here in Texas
  • crossovers: down 10% year/year in Texas
  • EVs: some of the biggest price declines here in Texas
    • I’m seeing a lot more compact EVs in our apartment complex
  • Used car pricing; that transitory inflation had nothing to do with US spending or US debt.

Recession: there will be a recession. But not yet. See GDPNow.

Got Nvidia? Check out Oracle.

Apple: iMac review. A no-brainer. I would like to know more about the reviewer’s background.

  • the state-owned flagship Dubai carrier, a subsidiary of Emirates Group, is ordering 55 additional Boeing 777-9s and 35 777-8s, bringing the airline’s total orders for the 777X widebody jets to 205 units. 
  • Emirates already operates the largest number of Boeing 777 aircraft of any airline in the world
  • both Boeing and Airbus have highlighted the Middle East region as a major source of demand for wide-body aircraft.
Boeing: pays 8.65%. I find it amazing the Fast Money folks seem to find it hard to find stocks to recommend. And Buffett? Don’t even get me started.

 
Boeing: China last new order from Boeing was back in 2017.

Wind: for promoters and investors, a debacle. The whole renewable energy sector is a disaster.

UAW contract: not ratified. If true, absolutely predictable.
  • Ford still maintains a 6.09% payout
US LNG exports: likely to double through 2027. At the link, look at Plaquemines.
Freeway fire: I-10 downtown LA. So many story lines here, can’t even begin.


Fisker: update here. To report today. Forecast: a 25-cent loss. 

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Back to the Bakken

Focus on fracking: weekly edition.

WTI; $77.28.

Tuesday, November 14, 2023: 118 for the month; 118 for the quarter, 688 for the year
None.

Monday, November 13, 2023: 118 for the month; 118 for the quarter, 688 for the year
39078, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-7,
39322, conf, Oasis, Osprey 5401 44-23 4B,
37325, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Porcupine 6-19H,

Sunday, November 12, 2023: 115 for the month; 115 for the quarter, 685 for the year
39704, conf, Oasis, MHA Moose 5090 43-7 2B,
39420, conf, Petro-Hunt, Ty Webb 148-103-1A-12-4H,
38116, conf, Enerplus, Right 148-93-05D-06H-LL,

Saturday, November 11, 2023: 112 for the month; 112 for the quarter, 682 for the year
39705, conf, Oasis, MHA Moose 5090 43-7 3B,
39419, conf, Petro-Hunt, Dean Wormer 149-102-33D-28-3H,
39077, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-6,
37326, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Porcupine 5-19H,
 
Over the past four years, we’ve documented the strategic transformation of upstream oil and gas producers from growth at all costs to the fiscally conservative concentration on accumulating free cash flow to accelerate shareholder returns. Much like their upstream counterparts, midstream corporations and master limited partnerships (MLPs) have shifted to fiscal conservatism, focusing less on growth and capital investment and more on shareholder returns, acquisitions and debt reduction. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the cash flow allocation of a representative baker’s dozen of midstream companies as they compete for investor support.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source