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Thursday, November 9, 2023

Headlines — November 9, 2023

Locator: 46008HEADLINES.

Trees: link here.

Deflation: maybe this will help.

Grid: AI and EVs.

Honda: misses.

German grid: expensive. Governmental debacle.

Willow: let’s go Brandon.

PLUG: unplugged. Ouch. So glad I wasn’t in this one. My rules for investing worked this time. Incredible story gets worse the more one reads. Even CNBC missed this one. Even Drudge. See ticker. No one will admit they own it. May not survive. Not the first time. Motley Fool got it right from the very beginning. Twitter feed. Finally: this is getting CNBC's attention! Wow, they missed it yesterday as it was happening.  Walmart partners with PLUG, Forbes.

On top of things: LOL. 

And this is why I don't subscribe to SeekingAlpha:

US debt: a very reassuring graph. Delinquency: nice graph, study.

$37-billion treasure: Wyoming rare-earths mine.

Another record: my favorite chart. This has turned out to be quite a story. I remember the pushback I got when I first posted this story some months ago. Regional banks in deep doo-doo.

Lucid: Saudi’s money pit.

Blame it on the speculators: how many times have we heard this story?

Petrobras: how does this happen?

IBD on the big mergers: more for longer. Financial Times on same story behind paywall.

JPow: a legend. The only adult in the room.

Current pet peeve: business ads on CNBC warning us about climate change. Let's see -- An Inconvenient Truth, Algore, began making these presentations in 1989. Mildest season ever for hurricanes, summer, 2023. Wow -- 1989 --> 2023 = 34 years.

Urban Rambling -- November 9, 2023

Locator: 46007ARCH. 

Usual disclaimer applies. There will be content and typographical errors, and those errors are more likely in a long note like this. Read at your own risk. It's not meant for readers but for the grandchildren as an archival document to remind us what "things" were going on today.

Wow, I'm in a great mood. 

IRS: has just published new tax brackets. Whoo-hoo! I'm sure every change was made in favor of the taxpayer. LOL. IRS publishes new tax brackets for tax year 2024 on November 9, 2023. These new brackets are for tax year 2024! Because of inflation, the changes are actually in the taxpayers' favor.

Oilprice.com today

Inflation. I just returned from Target to pick up a few items. Target still has logistics issues; many shelves with empty spaces.

But having said that, it felt like prices have stabilized, and, in fact, dropped a bit. Sales everywhere, including a big sign, 10% off total bill for orders greater than $50. Or was it $10 off for orders greater than $50. I forget now. Whatever.

Apparently Target does not carry McCormick Cinnamon Sugar. I've never seen it there. Will continue to look. I love it on my French toast for breakfast. The French sure are clever, more on that later, if I remember. So, I'll order from Amazon. I'll start ordering my vanilla extract from Amazon, also. It's slightly less expensive than Target and much more convenient. Just a click away. 

But eggs! OMG. $5.00 / dozen last year at this time and Biden was getting all that blame for the high price of eggs (avian flu, of course, was the real cause, and poor logistics in some cases) but now at the high end stores (see yesterday's note), a dozen eggs cost $1.69 and today at Target, $1.39. Are you kidding me? $1.39 for twelve eggs. I hope folks are sending "thank you" notes to the White House. LOL. 12 cents an egg.

Seriously, grocery prices at Target have that feeling that we have simply seen a "reset." We're now where she should have been had there not been a Covid-19 lock down. So, we'll see.

The freezer coffins are over-stuffed (pun intended) with huge Butterball turkeys and their prices are starting to go up. Earlier this year, they were $0.99 / pound. Today, at Target, Butterball turkeys are $1.49 / pound. There was one honeysuckle turkey -- wow, it was huge -- for $1.19 / pound.

Every year for the past several years we've dropped off 10 - 15 turkeys at Sophia's elementary school for the annual Thanksgiving turkey drive, but not this year. I noticed that no one seemed to care one way or another how the drive went, not even a note in the school's weekly note with a summary of last year's drive. I'll donate the money to the "red kettle." Salvation Army.


 

Post-Covid: speaking of groceries, we're also "saving" a lot of money by drawing down on all the grocery and paper supplies we squirreled away during the Covid-19 lock down. A lot. 

Disney: had a great day. 

One Disney analyst, who is not a Disney bull, says Disney still has problems, but says that one exception is Disney Parks. Apparently the parks are reporting explosive profits / explosive growth. Not surprising. People say Disney park tickets are expensive. My response: "compared to what?" One can easily fact-check this; I did and, yes, Disney parks are doing great. I continue to add $200 / month to the 3-y/o twins Disney fund -- held in a Schwab investment account. They are three years old; they will go to Legoland, San Diego, when eight years old and Disneyland, Anaheim, California, when they are a bit older. The fund was started not long ago and now has over $5,000 invested.  

RSV: I mentioned that I got my RSV vaccination yesterday. Absolutely no cost to me: no deductible, no co-pay. Cost to insurer? $210.78. But we did get a coupon for 10% off on one grocery trip -- no limit on the 10%!

New car: with all the money I'm saving by shopping at Target, I was able to buy a new McLaren.



Jews not welcome? Sign of the times? On another note, DFW Kabob and Gyros restaurant, here in Grapevine, Texas, has excellent / outstanding Mediterranean / middle Eastern cuisine for really good prices. 

My wife and her best friend, who happens to be Jewish, were in line for lunch there today when a Palestinian (most likely) customer ahead of them, in a loud voice, shouted "yea, Palestine," to the DFWKAG proprietor who returned a "go, Palestine, from the river to the sea."

Needless to say, our Jewish friend was unable to have lunch there and they left. There are a gazillion restaurants from which to choose here in our local area. This will no longer be one of them.

I will send DDFWKAG a note to let them know of this incident and that I'm willing to make an 8x10 glossy / laminated sign, "Jews Not Welcome," for their window, if they would like. I wonder if they bake cakes.

Two New Permits; Nine DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 9, 2023

Locator: 46006B.

WTI: $75.66.

Active rigs: 35.

Two new permits, #40329 - #40330, inclusive:

  • Operators: Phoenix Operating, Hess
  • Fields: Burg (Divide); Big Butte (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Phoenix Operating has a permit for a Nate well, NENW 27-160-99; 
      • to be sited 588 FNL and 1581 FWL;
    • Hess has a permit for an EN-Lonetree farm well, SWSW 8-156-94; 
      • to be sited 845 FSL and 940 FWL;

CO2 storage well completed:

  • 38918, Dakota Gasification, Coteau 4, Mercer County, DGC Beulah Broom Creek Storage Facility #1.

Nine producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed:

  • 39691, 727, WPX, Nero 8-26H,
  • 38253, 884, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-6,
  • 39447, 1,551, CLR, Edward 7-23H,
  • 39448, 892, CLR, Edward 8-23H1,
  • 39449, 937, CLR, Edward 9-23H1,
  • 39436, 300, Eagle Operating, V-M 5-7,
  • 39187, 3,368, Grayson Mill, Jay 24-13F,
  • 39376, 3,109, MRO, Whalen 14-20H,
  • 39377, 2,512, MRO, Leah 14-20TFH,

EVs -- The Last Nail In The Coffin -- November 9, 2023

Locator: 46005EVS.

Before today, everyone agreed, "higher for longer."

Earlier this morning the results of the US Treasury's bond auction was released. 

The auction not only confirmed "higher for longer," but higher for much longer."

This is what "most" analysts seem to agree upon with regard to bonds and long term rates:

  • the Fed will NOT cut -- not even once -- in calendar 2024;
  • in fact, the Fed could raise rates, not once, but possibly even twice;
  • there WON'T be a recession in 2024 -- although it may feel like a recession to many folks.

This is the last nail in the coffin for the American EV companies: Ford, Rivian, Lucid, Polestar, and Arrival. It's possible TSLA will weather the storm but it won't be easy.

I'll post the graphics later, but go ahead, check them out for yourself.

Later, here are the graphics:







By the way, note that F is the only EV company paying a dividend, and the dividend is not trivial. Does anyone really think F will maintain a 6% payout with the headwinds they are facing:
the new UAW contract;

  • "higher for longer" could greatly impact sales;
  • stepping back from EV manufacturing -- great for short term results but horrendous for strategic planning

Hope Springs Eternal — November 9, 2023

Locator: 46004OIL.

Hope springs eternal.


There are four reasons, at least, why the SPR is irrelevant:

  • Saudi Arabia can turn on a dime, and bring back production to pre-2019 levels within three months if necessary;
  • the US is now setting records for crude oil production (previously posted)
  • the US is now setting crude oil export records which can be pulled back immediately if the US needs that oil;
  • US operators are choking back production, waiting for $150-oil like everyone else

And, if push really comes to shove, Bakken oil is so pure, one can put Bakken oil directly into IC engines without refining, or so I'm told.

Nature really is amazing, isn't it? The Bakken providing such perfect oil, "we" had to come up with fake reasons why we needed to go electric. LOL.

As soon as I saw “SPR” I realized he still has no clue.

Anyone worried about the SPR is like the cowboy looking for love in all the wrong places.

I will post the graphic and additional comments later.

If one goes to the link, be sure to read the replies. Some really, really good comments were made but most comments were inane.

Affirm Affirmed -- November 19, 2023

Locator: 46003INV. 

You can lead horses to water ... but you can't make them buy. LOL.

Folks might want to check out Affirm today. Best ticker on the board today?

Back on June 7, 2023, I wrote:

************************
Affirm

Link here.

Affirm stock soars on new deal with Amazon Pay.

Affirm: BNPL.

The deal will allow merchants who use Amazon Pay to offer Affirm's "Adaptive Checkout" which allows customers to pay their bills over time. The technology is already available on Amazon.com and the Amazon mobile app.

That's interesting. As noted: Amazon already offers "versions" of this on their website for retail customers.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.  


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And Then There's Nividia

I don't think I can write more about Nivdia than I already have.

I bought more at the open today.

Right now, Nividia is up over $11/share on a day the Dow is falling "three digits." 

On top of everything else, Nividia has even given their new super-chip a great name.

But everyone will talk about Buffett. Disney. Amazon. It gets tedious.

Update On E-Mail And Comments To The Blog -- November 9, 2023

Locator: 46002B. 

Wow, wow, wow -- as I've been posting since November 5, 2023, the Yahoo! e-mail address is not currently functioning. The Yahoo! folks have been awesome and apparently Sophia and I could re-establish the account, but Sophia and I have some concerns about connecting an e-mail with a blog and for the time we will not re-activate the account.

So, I have a back-up e-mail account which is "walled off" and I receive e-mail only from two members of my immediate family. I will connect this e-mail account with my Schwab broker if I don't re-establish the Yahoo! account.

My biggest concern was whether I would still receive comments to the blog and whether those comments could be received, moderated, and posted. 

The good news! Comments to the blog can be received, moderated, and posted.

I moderate comments very, very harshly. 

So, we'll see. 

I may moderate / reply to comments in a different format than I have in the past and may be of more interest to some readers now that I cannot reply by e-mail.

Overall, I feel I'm in a much, much better spot when it comes to investing.

S&P: Longest Winning Streak In 19 Years -- Bidenomics -- How Many Presidents Over 20 Years? November 9, 2023

Locator: 46001INV. 

Nvidia: before we get started -- folks are going to start hearing "Grace Hopper" more often starting today. CNBC is mentioning / stressing that Nvidia's new class of chips -- super-chips -- will set a new, higher bar.

At the open:

  • AAPL: up 51 cents.
  • Nvidia: up $9.34.
  • DVN: up 61 cents.
  • INTC: up 0.15%.

Personal investing:

  • bought NVDA at the open today.

The market:


 

The 21st Century -- America's Century -- Texas' Century -- November 9, 2023

Locator: 46004OIL.

Texas: LNG export terminals and crude oil exports.

From oilprice:

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- November 9, 2023

Locator: 46003B.

Calexas or Catexas? I use to fear Californians streaming to Texas. No more. It's just what we need. Especially in "red" counties.

Jobless claims:

  • initial very slightly less than expected: 217,000 vs 218,000 expected
  • revision from last week: up a bit
  • continuing claims: highest levels since last April, 2023
  • pre-market: held, after announcement

Market:

  • Dow: longest winning streak in a long, long time
  • all three indices "green" pre-market; but NASDAQ is right at flat line;
  • Dow moving up before jobless claims announced (early release for some?) 
    • Dow keeps pushing up in pre-market

WTI: investors have moved from "what could be" ($150) to "what it is" ($75). I simply marvel at these P/Es and dividends (in %)

  • DVN: 6.09 / 11.32%
  • CVX: 10.59 / 4.24%
  • ENB: 30.84 / 7.63%
  • EPD: 10.53 / 7.70%
  • COP: 12.52 / 3.42%

Personal health: received my RSV vaccination yesterday. Free and 10% off on any grocery purchase, no matter how big. 

  • side effects: absolutely nothing. I almost forgot to take Tylenol because I had no pain. This morning a very, very, very slight dull pain in upper arm in region of injection.
  • so, this autumn: Covid-19 #5; "seasonal flu"; and, now RSV (a one-time injection)
  • one last vaccine and then I'm all caught up: tetanus

California: talk of new mask mandates; in place in San Francisco hospitals; Los Angeles considering.

Personal investing:

  • will be adding more NVDA today

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $75.75.

Friday, November 10, 2023: 108 for the month; 108 for the quarter, 678 for the year
39706, conf, Oasis, MHA Moose 5090 43-7 4B,
39672, conf, Slawson, Barnstormer Federal 2-3-15H,

Thursday, November 9, 2023: 106 for the month; 106 for the quarter, 676 for the year
39707, conf, Oasis, MHA Moose 5090 43-7 5B,
37327, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Porcupine 4-19H,

RBN Energy: 40,000 subscribers.

Uranium Update -- Idaho Project Canceled -- Just Announced -- November 9, 2023

Locator: 46001RENEWABLES.

Peter Zeihan: why "non-dispatchable" energy can't satisfy electricity demands.

Nuclear: 24 minutes ago -- canceled:


writing on the wall:
  • link here: NuScale, October 26, 2023.
  • link here: eye-popping costs for NuScale small modular reactor

We don't hear much about uranium stocks on CNBC.


EV Update -- November 9, 2023

Locator: 46000EVS.

News, Lucid:

News, Rivian:

From Barron's today.


From earlier this week:

Link here.

Link here.

Nvidia -- November 9, 2023

Locator: 45999TECH.
Locator: 45999INV. 

Personal investing: will buy NVDA today.

A few weeks ago, the Biden administration announced the US would prohibit Nvidia from selling chips to China. What a huge opportunity for investors.






Abbreviated disclaimer (full disclaimer at the "welcome")

This is not an investment site

Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

All my posts are done for my benefit. I don't expect others to read anything I post nor do I expect others to agree on anything I post. I started the blog to help me remember things since I have such a poor memory

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source

*******************************
Grapevine Lake, Texas