Locator: 45853EVS.
XOM and MPC both raised their quarterly dividend this past week.
Friday, October 27, 2023
EVs Are Too Expensive -- October 27, 202
Locator: 45852EVS.
EVs are too expensive: link here.
Three days ago I wrote this:
Up until now manufacturers blamed their EV problems on lack of infrastructure, lack of choice, range anxiety -- now they admit the obvious -- all those concerns are valid, but the real problem is "COST."
EVs are luxury vehicles, trending toward $100,000 for any vehicle that meets the needs of a family or a soccer mom. Chevy Bolts aren't the answer.
When I went to our local Tesla showroom -- several years ago -- folks "oohed and aahed" over them -- how "good" they looked. My comment at the time, "for $100,000 they better look good."
By the way, no one -- as far as I know -- has mentioned this. This debt was "one thing" when money was free (0% Fed rate) but with interest rates trending toward 5% this debt now becomes "something else."
Four New Permits -- October 27, 2023
Locator: 45851B.
WTI: $85.54 -- up 2.8%; up $2.33 / bbl.
Four new permits, #40303 - #40306, inclusive:
- Operators: Stephens Williston DB SEG Williston (2); Neptune Operating, Hunt Oil
- Fields: Stanley (Mountrail); Briar Creek (Williams); and, Ross (Mountrail)
- Comments: pending
Three confidential CO2 storage wells completed:
- 40027, Dakota Gasification Company, Coteau 6, DGC Beulah Broom Creek Storage Facility #1;
- 11279, Murex Petroleum, Pearson 42-30, Bottineau County;
- 25713, Murex Petroleum, Deanna Marie 34-27H, Divide County;
The Purpose Of Meatloaf On A Meatloaf Sandwich -- October 27, 2023
Locator: 45850BEEF.
Okay, let's cut to the chase. All that talk about how expensive beef is. La de da.
In general, I no longer eat beef -- some exceptions to which I will get.
We're on a road trip to Chattanooga, TN. Yesterday, from the DFW (Texas) area to Monroe, LA, we made one stop, a McDonald's, of course. I had a diet Coke and a regular hamburger -- $1.89 for the hamburger. The patty of meat was so thin it was hardly noticed. McDonald's says they have not downsized their hamburgers; perhaps, but hard to believe.
Today, we're at an incredibly beautiful Alabama rest stop on I-20 east about three hours west of Chattanooga. We are having a picnic; the weather is gorgeous and it must be about 80°F -- sunny, clear, no wind.
We brought along the leftover meatloaf we picked up at Albertson's earlier this week in anticipation of this trip. I made my meatloaf sandwich and then realized: the only purpose for the sandwich / meatloaf is to "carry" the condiments: ketchup and Srirachi sauce.
I cut the meatloaf so thinly, as I always do -- about the thickness of that McDonald's hamburger -- but it was then, in this Alabama forest, that I realized that the whole purpose of the sandwich is to "carry" the condiments. I can't quite cut out meatloaf entirely on a meatloaf sandwich but give me time. And more Srirachi sauce. LOL.
By the way, the Brits / English have done this since WWII. I've probably had as many cucumber sandwiches (no meat whatsoever) as I've had meatloaf sandwiches since our tour of England back in the late 1980 / early 1990s.
Oh, to complete the story: bread? White bread, generic. Literally no brand name on the plastic except "White Bread," in all caps. $1.39 / loaf.
Srirachi sauce -- hard to find. But lasts forever in the refrigerator. Don't be afraid to stock up if you find it.
Meat loaf? Almost optional.
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The Book Page
Since our trip is along a most historical Civil War route, I brought along a copy of General US Grant's memoirs.
I don't read it in public while in the deep south east of Texas.
I learn something new from it every time I read it. I've read it twice and now read certain chapters, certain passages depending on where I'm reading and my thoughts about the Civil War at the time I'm reading.
Toyota's Technology Has Nothing To Do With Ford's Decision -- October 27, 202
Locator: 45849EVs. 
Updates
Later, 1:19 p.m. CT: everyone has their own ideas on EVs. That's fine. This was from a reader with a long history following transportation issues in the US. We're pretty much on the same sheet of music, as they say.
From my standpoint in the transportation business electric vehicles are a pipe dream.
High initial cost, very rapid depreciation, very limited parts and service outlets, hidden costs for charging and license that now includes the road use tax missing from fuel tax revenue.
For limited use, very small radius delivery zones they are perfect.
For a utilitarian use where your vehicle takes you all over, has some demands as far as carrying thing from the home repair store or towing your boat to do a little fishing early in the morning they fall short.
People live in their cars/trucks and need to have some faith that the vehicle they buy will fill their needs. You can’t take a family of five on a trip in a Volt. Inflation has taken a lot of discretionary spending money away so the second car/truck is not attainable.
Hybrids have a place for some of the people but they are very expensive to repair and not many shops have tech’s that can do major malfunction diagnosis and repairs.
Not enough thought has been given to the whole cost of transportation when the electric solution was picked, not even close to enough. Electric vehicle use is very limited and extremely expensive . Cars are the second largest household expense. The typical new car/truck are in all cases too expensive because of all the mandated features and most are way out of range for the common household to afford.
The total price is what is important to Hertz and they are not happy with that. The electric car is at best a niche market, not the answer to the problems.
Original Post
A reader suggests that Toyota's battery technology is the reason Ford is delaying its pivot to EV.
Toyota's battery technology -- which is probably years from now -- won't change consumers' minds about EVs.
As I told a reader:
The fact this "new technology" was posted on an obscure website and not on mainstream media speaks volumes. How many times have we seen reports like this? After decades of research, all of a sudden they've found the holy grail. Amazing. I don't believe it. And even if they did, Americans aren't buying. And if Toyota is successful, and Ford can't pivot to EVs, Ford will be killed by Toyota and Tesla.
Think where Toyota and Tesla will be five years from now with regard to EVs and Ford, GM will still be talking about ramping up. Ford's debt would increase by more than 10% with the new UAW contract and the pivot to EVs. They simply can't do it. And still pay a 5% dividend.
This is the real problem, all posted over the past few weeks with lots of background. By the way, which EV company do you not see on this chart?
And we haven't even mentioned the new UAW contract (well, I guess we did, in passing).
Ford's decision had nothing to do with Toyota's battery technology.
All three US auto manufacturers are in deep doo-doo and they cannot afford the billions it will take to convert to EVs.
Meanwhile, this delay -- by both GM and Ford, and I assume Stellantis -- will make the same announcement soon will put them even farther behind Tesla, Toyota, the Chinese car companies who will dominate the European market, Mercedes, VW, and Honda.
Thirteen Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over The Weekend -- The Oasis Wells In Williston Reporting Nice Numbers -- October 27, 2023
Locator: 45848B.
Most interesting story this week: so little mainstream business interest in the fact that Buffett is buying more OXY. No one seems to be reporting it. For investors, I think this might be number story this week.
Headlines:
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $84.00
Sunday, October 29, 2023: 76 for the month; 76 for the quarter, 646 for the year
39720, conf, Kraken Blaine LE 33-28 4H,
38757, conf, Oasis, Dahl W Federal 5301 13-15 4B, -- "Williston city well"
38095, conf, Enerplus, Blue 148-93-05D-06H,
34633, conf, MRO, Satrum 11-17TFH,
31205, conf, BR, Abercrombie 6-8-12UTFH,
Saturday, October 28, 2023: 71 for the month; 71 for the quarter, 641 for the year
39719, conf, Kraken, Blaine LE 33-28 11H,
38924, conf, Oasis, Kestrel 5401 43-22 4B,
38756, conf, Oasis, Dahl W Federal 5301 13-15 3B, -- "Williston city well"
38755, conf, Oasis, Dahl W Federal 5301 13-15-2B, -- "Williston city well"
39718, conf, Kraken, Sutton 3-10 6H,
39495, conf, CLR, Thaxton 5-35H,
38094, conf, Enerplus, Ommuura 148-93-05D-06H,
31204, conf, BR, Abercrombie 5-8-12MBH,
RBN Energy: the build-out of Permian gas processing capacity isn't over, not by a long shot.
Continued growth in Permian crude oil production can’t happen without sufficient infrastructure — not just takeaway capacity for crude, natural gas and NGLs but also the capacity to process the fast-increasing volumes of associated gas being produced in the Midland and Delaware basins. The incremental need for processing capacity is enormous, as evidenced by the ongoing, almost frenetic build-out of gas processing plants across the Permian. More than 1.2 Bcf/d of new capacity is slated to come online by the end of this year, with another 1.7 Bcf/d in the first half of 2024 and another 1.8 Bcf/d after that. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the race to add processing plants in key locations in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico and the drivers behind it.
Over the past six years, crude oil and natural gas production in the Permian has nearly tripled — yes, tripled! Production in the 70,000-square-mile basin is now averaging an astonishing 6.1 MMb/d (for crude) and 17.1 Bcf/d (for gas), and our forecast suggests those numbers will continue rising at a brisk pace over the next six years as Permian E&Ps become even more efficient and overseas demand for hydrocarbons remains strong. Production growth in the Permian depends on infrastructure — it’s as simple as that — and throughout the basin’s rebirth during the Shale Era midstream companies have been working hand in hand with producers and others to ensure that the gathering systems, gas processing plants, takeaway pipelines and other infrastructure needed are developed.