Briefly -- October 26, 2023

Locator: 45847EVS.

Ford: This is going to be fascinating to watch.

 Ford doesn't know it yet, and Ford will never admit it but the UAW just saved Ford's "rear end."  My reasoning is pretty well spelled out on the blog over the past couple of years. 

Link here. 

All those jurisdictions -- California in the lead -- that mandated EVs by 2030 or 2035 are going to have to re-think this. They, too, won't admit they're wrong, and they won't change any mandates now, but at some point ... the only folks who don't understand the implications of the bullets in the screenshot below are those who can't read English and/or never completed fifth grade.

Warren: two big stories --

• apparently he hasn't sold his PARA yet; but,
• he did buy more OXY.

Amazon earnings: blew past expectations.

Cisco Webex and Apple hook up.

Apple is in trouble -- at least in the short term. Laptop demand has fallen significantly. We're going to see some great bargains come Black Friday.

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The Movie Page

Link here.

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Miley Cyrus

I'm On A Four - Day Road Trip To Chattanooga -- Five New Permits -- October 26, 2023

Locator: 45846B.

I will post at least once to make sure I don't break my record of blogging at least once every day, but it's very likely I will take a real vacation from blogging.

This is where I will be -- Ross's Landing, Chattanooga. 

Link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $83.57.

Active rigs: 36.

Five new permits, #40298 - #40302, inclusive:

• Operators: Whiting (4); Hess
• Fields: Sanish (Mountrail), Wheelock (Williams)
• Comments: pending

Three permits renewed:

Two permits canceled:

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37781, BR,
• 39429, Petro-Hunt

FANG -- October 26, 2023

Locator: 45845FANG.

I don't subscribe to SeekingAlpha so I can't access the article, but I do get the headlines. Mike Fitzsimmons is one of the better energy analysts.

Buffett Was Right Again About The Housing Market — MarketBeat — October 26, 2023

Locator: 45844BUFFETT.

I bet Warren Buffett was even surprised.

See this link. The magnitude in the decline in new house prices was “head-turning.” — Barron’s.

Locator: 45837HOUSING.

In all the "stuff" that was reported today, I completely missed this until I was going through some of Liz's charts again. I assume everyone else saw this but me -- most remarkable / most remarkably, I didn't see this reported by anyone else and I certainly didn't see the headline -- again, it was probably only me … but … 

Someone else must have also noted it … Warren Buffett!!! He was right again!

Is Warren Buffett ever wrong? If you are sighing at the fact that you hesitated to buy construction stocks due to tales of doom and gloom, then today is your lucky day, as MarketBeat is bringing you yet another way to measure this market more clearly and maybe even ride the rest of the wave higher. 

Earnings season can bring you vast data and trends that you can trace back to the bigger picture, so you don't miss the forest by focusing on one or even a few trees. With two companies supporting the real estate sector, mainly construction and renovation, announcing their earnings this week, the writing is now on the wall.

PulteGroup is one of the 'comparable' companies like those Buffett bought last quarter in his bet for a sustained boom in construction. If you still need to catch up on those, here's a list (at the linked story) of Buffett stocks that will likely rise before Buffett's holdings take off, just by nature of the industry.

Pulte stock is up in the pre-market hours of Tuesday morning by as much as 2.4% after reporting on its third quarter 2023 earnings results, but more on their importance in a bit. 

Another company that provides a great indicator of spending activity for housing, whether new homes or renovation activity, has also entered the chat. Sherwin-Williams NYSE: SHW is another stock that is popping off in the pre-market session, this one by a more significant 3.1%.

Later, we’ll bring you up to speed on a bet by Buffett that may not turn out so well, suggesting he may be a mortal after all. 

EVs -- ADAS Rankings -- Consumer Reports -- October 26, 2023

Locator: 45843EVS. 

Link here.

Baku, Ankara, And Peter Zeihan -- October 26, 2023

Locator: 45842ZEIHAN. 

From Peter Zeihan today:

So, let's check the map.

Baku and Ankara are joined at the hip.

Breaking News On US Economy -- Surge In Growth -- Area Under The Curve -- WSJ -- October 26, 2023

Locator: 45841ECON. 

Drudge doesn’t often put headlines in RED, but in this case US GDP caught so many folks oft-guard, he put the news in RED. Bidenomics?

The reason for the GPD growth, from The WSJ: "area under the curve." LOL:

 From CNBC: 

Link here.

Earlier, from The WSJ:

For the US:

 Others:

Note: wikipedia's most recent estimate for the US was $26.854 trillion; now two days ago, October 24, 2023, the estimate for US GDP has increased to $26.94 trillion. In percentages, about the same but in raw dollars, not trivial. At least in my mind.

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US Debt vs GDP

With all the economic data coming out today, I was curious to see US debt vs GDP ddat.

From tradingeconomics:

As a percentage, US debt has remained fairly constant in the past two years and actually dropped in 2021 year/year.

I forget, who was president in 2020?

Who was president for the past two years when the ratio initially dropped but has, for the most part, stayed constant?

Tech Update: Intel, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm -- October 26, 2023

Locator: 45840INV. 

Link here.

For me, the most interesting of the four: Qualcomm. 

We already knew the story with regard to Nvidia and AMD.

But now, a new wrinkle:

And then this:

Tea leaves: major shift in PC architecture over thee next few years.

Eight Wells Coming Off Confidential List Heading Into The Weekend -- October 26, 2023

Locator: 45839B. 

GM: during Mary Barra's era, shares have dropped 25% over the past nine years -- Barron's. One would never know that by listening to CNBC's auto analyst, Phil LeBeau. Worse: even with reinvested dividends, the stock has had a slightly negative annualized return. Meanwhile, excluding reinvested dividends, Ford shares have appreciated almost 30% over the past five years. However, going back nine years, as Barron's did with GM, Ford share price:

• today, $11.54
• October 31, 2014: $14.09
• 14.09 - 11.54 = a 22% decline.

Which, I guess tells another story.

Is it the CEO or the American car industry?

Something suggests to me that with the new UAW contract, the next ten years may not be a whole lot better. And then throw in the transition to EVs.

See this post.

Cramer

Israel: tell me the ground invasion has not begun by telling me the ground invasion has not begun.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $83.78.

Friday, October 27, 2023: 67 for the month; 67 for the quarter, 637 for the year
39718, conf, Kraken, Sutton 3-10 6H,
39495, conf, CLR, Thaxton 5-35H,
38094, conf, Enerplus, Ommuura 148-93-05D-06H,
31204, conf, BR, Abercrombie 5-8-12MBH,

Thursday, October 26, 2023: 63 for the month; 63 for the quarter, 633 for the year
39494, conf, CLR, Thaxton 6-35H,
38923, conf, Oasis, Kestrel 54001 43-22 3B,
38093, conf, Enerplus, SEI 148-93-05D-06H,
31203, conf, BR, Abercrombie 44-8-12UTFH,

RBN Energy: Chevron shuns Permiaan for $60 billion grab of Guyana-focused Hess.

Rumors about potential oil and gas mergers are always swirling, but the announcement of ExxonMobil’s record-breaking deal to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources a couple of weeks ago generated a fever pitch of speculation about potential matchups. In the past week, we’ve seen media reports of possible courtships between Devon Energy and Marathon Oil and then Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy. However, it was Chevron that shocked the oil patch by swiping right on former integrated oil company Hess Corp., opting for a $60 billion acquisition of an E&P with no Permian Basin exposure. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the drivers and implications of what is now the second-largest U.S. upstream transaction ever. 

Chevron, the #2 global integrated oil company with a market cap of $311 billion, had been expected to respond to the dramatic acquisition by #1 ExxonMobil, and speculation logically focused on a move to boost scale in the Permian Basin. In contrast with peers that have focused on shale-related acquisitions, Chevron has been developing the substantial legacy position created with its 2000 merger with Texaco. The company’s Q2 2023 output of 772 Mboe/d placed it second among Permian producers, well ahead of ExxonMobil’s 560 Mboe/d. The company’s aggressive development plan targeted 1 billion boe/d of Permian production by 2025, well ahead of its larger competitor’s goal of reaching that level by 2027, but the Pioneer acquisition will catapult ExxonMobil to 1.3 billion boe/d. Would Chevron respond with a Permian deal of its own?