This Begs THE Question— October 18, 2023

Locator: 45819BIDEN.

Link here.

Handled deftly: neatly, skillful, and quick in movement.

Threaded the needle.

From the linked article:

President Joe Biden’s trip to Israel was a gamble. With it, he became the first U.S. president to travel to that country while it was at war.

Missiles rain down on Israel daily. The situation on the country’s borders with Gaza in the South and Lebanon in the north is volatile. And yet, physical danger, while a very real consideration on Biden’s trip, was not the greatest risk he was undertaking.

Shale -- October 18, 2023

Locator: 45818B.

Link here.

Link here.

CrownRock, L.P.

• MIDLAND, Texas, April 13, 2021 /PRNewswire/ — CrownRock, L.P. (“CrownRock”), an oil and gas producing joint venture of CrownQuest Operating and Lime Rock Partners, 
• The private equity-backed company, which is led by Texas billionaire businessman Timothy Dunn, has initiated discussions with investment banks about hiring advisers to run a sale process that will kick off by early 2024, the sources said.

To acquire or be acquired.

Prior to the XOM-PXD announcement:

• The potential sale of CrownRock could end up being the largest in the U.S. oil and gas producing patch since ConocoPhillips' all-stock deal for Concho Resources in 2020, which valued the latter at $13.3 billion, including debt.

Channeling PXD.

Could we see a 3-company mega-deal? Nope, just joking, but it would be exciting.

Link here.

North Dakota In Region That Was Allocated Largest Amount Of Government Money For Grid Enhancement -- October 18, 2023

Locator: 45817GRID.

Link here.

Atmospheric CO2 -- September, 2022, Data

Locator: 45816CO2.

Link here.

My Favorite Chart -- Just Posted -- September 2023 Data

Locator: 45815INV.

Link here.

Five New Permits; After Hours, WTI: $88.32; Earnings: Tesla, Netflix -- October 18, 2023

Locator: 45814INV.
Locator: 45814B.

Netflix earnings:

• subscriber numbers: big beat; 8.76 million vs 5.49 million
  
• shares: up 23.54, up 8%
• EPS: big beat; $3.73 vs $3.49
  
• rev: $8.54 billion vs $8.54 billion forecast
  
• will raise subscription prices
  

Tesla earnings:

• shares: dropped 5% during the day; after hours, another 1% down; shares after earnings, up very slightly
  
• miss top and bottom line
• adjusted margin 16.1%
• EPS: 66 cents vs 73 cents forecast
• rev: $23.35 billion vs $24.10 billion forecast

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: 88.32.

Five new permits, #40273 - #40277, inclusive:

• Operators: Empire North Dakota, Phoenix Operating (3), BR
• Fields: Starbuck (Bottineau); Burg (Williams); Twin Valley (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Phoenix has permits for three Young wells, SENE5-159-99; 
• to be sited between 2243 FNL and 2303 FNL and all three 666 FEL;
• Empire North Dakota has a permit for a Nuthatch well, SWNE 29-161-78, 
• to be sited 1980 FNL and 2112 FEL
• BR has a permit for a Carlsbad well SWNW 17-152-97; 
• to be sited 1590 FNL and 1314 FWL

CO2 storage well completed:

• 28279, Dakota Gasification Company, Coteau 1, SWSW 1-145-88, DGC Beulah Broom Creek storage facility; Mercer County;

EIA -- October 18, 2023

Locator: 45813EIA.

WTI: up 2%; up $1.72; trading at $88.38.

Link here.

• U.S. commercial crude oil inventories: down 4.5 million bbls; 5% below average at 419.7 million bbls
• imports averaging 5.5% more than same four-week period last year
• refineries: 86.1% -- wow, that's really low
• distillates: 12% below the five-year average
• jet fuel supplied: down 0.2% compared with same four-week period last year;

Gasoline demand, link here:

UAW Today -- October 18, 2023

Locator: 45813UAW.

PSA: Grocery Shopping -- October 18, 2023

Locator: 45812PSA.

Grocery shopping list.

September: before October, start buying a little bit of candy each time you stop by Walmart, Target. Or Amazon. If you're buying candy, you are behind the 8-ball, as they say.

October: start stocking up for Thanksgiving. After Halloween, it will be too late to start getting ready for Thanksgiving.  If you have a freezer, buy your turkey now. 

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The Periodical Page

Of all the "magazines" to which I subscribe, The Atlantic never, never disappoints. This issue was particularly good.

Articles in the latest issue, long essays on each of the following:

• the retiring General Mark Milley;
• the retiring US senator Mitt Romney;
• the hope-to-be retiring Kamala Harris;
• Two book reviews:
• The Maniac, by "Chilean" writer Benjammin Labatut.
• The Iliad, by Emily Wilson.

I've just finished The Maniac. Incredible. Biographical novel; it was only about halfway through the book when I "figured" out the author's style. Very, very clever.

I can't image reading this new version of The Iliad: sounds like it's being translated (for the umpteenth time) by a woke author: removing the barbaric words from The Iliad. And, I guess, she uses "more" poetic words. Sounds like a doctoral thesis. Good for Emily Wilson, but really, do we need yet another translation? My hunch: the review by Graeme Wood will be better than the translation by Emily Wilson.

Graeme Wood? Look at this resume:

In 2017, he won the Canadian Governor General's Award for English-language non-fiction, which he was eligible for due to holding Canadian citizenship, for his book The Way of the Strangers: Encounters with the Islamic State.

Graeme Wood was born in Polk County, Minnesota.

He grew up in Dallas and graduated from St. Mark's School of Texas in 1997. He spent a year studying Arabic Language at American University in Cairo, and also studied central Asian languages at Indiana University and Deep Springs College before transferring to Harvard College to study African-American Studies and Philosophy, graduating in 2001.

St Mark's in Dallas? 

Wes Anderson’s first feature film was also his first collaboration with actors Owen and Luke Wilson. The director filmed “Bottle Rocket” primarily on location in Dallas, the same city where the Wilson brothers were raised. (Anderson also grew up in Texas.)

The high school featured in the film, St. Mark’s High School, was where Owen Wilson went to school before being expelled for cheating on a math test.

The actor reportedly chose the school for the film as an act of playful revenge. The film also features the last house Frank Lloyd Wright ever designed, the Gillin Residence, a sprawling building in Wright’s signature Usonian style. This Dallas house serves as the backdrop for where the eccentric robbery crew plot and practice their heists.

Our family knows St Mark's well. Our oldest granddaughter competed against St Mark's on numerous occasions -- water polo. Wow, what great memories. 

Usonian style?

Usonia is a word that was used by the American architect Frank Lloyd Wright to refer to the United States in general (in preference over America), and more specifically to his vision for the landscape of the country, including the planning of cities and the architecture of buildings. 

Wright proposed the use of the adjective Usonian to describe the particular New World character of the American landscape as distinct and free of previous architectural conventions.

Wow -- what a great blog.

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The Movie Page

Ranking Wes Anderson's eleven movies.

Link here.

I would tend to agree.

Budapest Hotel (#4) just barely beats out Asteroid City (#5).

Two completely different movies.

Budapest Hotel is prototypical Wes Anderson.

Asteroid City is Ameria's answer to Ingmar Bergman and/or Henrik Ibsen. 

Tim Burton's Edward Scissorhands comes to mind. Stars Johnny Depp.

Back to: Budapest Hotel (#4) just barely beats out Asteroid City (#5).

The question: whether this list holds up ten years from now (the same movies, not including any future Wes Anderson movies). I think Asteroid City holds up better among serious movie critics -- the ones who like Ingmar Bergman and Orson Welles.

From Bad To Worse -- October 18, 2023

Locator: 45811UAW.

This is absolutely not the story Bill Ford wanted to see this morning (scroll to the bottom -- CHINA BYD).

Let's start with a few graphics (BTW, does Bill Ford remind one of Algore?).

From yesterday:

• auto suppliers asking for federal assistance to weather the UAW strike
• sound familiar?

So, how did that work out for Ford? Link here.

Now this: 

Her enthusiasm underscores how Chinese automakers are winning over drivers as they make major inroads into Europe’s electric vehicle market, challenging long-established homegrown brands in an industry that’s key to the continent’s green energy transition.

The competitive threat has spurred the European Union to launch an investigation into Beijing’s support for its EV industry. That adds to tech-related tensions between the West and China, which is one of Europe’s biggest trading partners and the world’s biggest auto market.

China’s EV onslaught, along with massive U.S. clean energy funding that has drawn investment away from Europe, shows how the 27-nation bloc is caught in the middle of the global race for green technology.

Chinese EV makers are drawn to Europe because auto import tariffs are just 10% versus 27.5% in the U.S., independent auto analyst Matthias Schmidt said. Europe also has the world’s second-biggest EV battery market after China.

Nevermind the geopolitics. Climate-conscious car buyers in Europe who are grappling with an increased cost of living rave about how Chinese EVs are affordable yet packed with features and stylish designs.

“Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.” most likely writer and philosopher George Santayana who originally wrote, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

From wiki:

Exports of passenger cars increased nearly two hundred-fold in the sixties compared to the previous decade, and were now up to 17.0 percent of the total production.

This though, was still only the beginning.

Rapidly increasing domestic demand and the expansion of Japanese car companies into foreign markets in the 1970s further accelerated growth. Effects of the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo accelerated vehicle exports along with the exchange rate of the Japanese yen to the U.S. Dollar, UK Pound, and West German Deutsche Mark. Passenger car exports rose from 100,000 in 1965 to 1,827,000 in 1975. Automobile production in Japan continued to increase rapidly after the 1970s, as Mitsubishi (as Dodge vehicles) and Honda began selling their vehicles in the US.

Even more brands came to America and abroad during the 1970s, and by the 1980s, the Japanese manufacturers were gaining a major foothold in the US and world markets.

In the early 1970s, the Japanese electronics manufacturers began producing integrated circuits (ICs), microprocessors and microcontrollers for the automobile industry, including ICs and microcontrollers for in-car entertainment, automatic wipers, electronic locks, dashboard, and engine control. The Japanese automobile industry widely adopted ICs years before the American automobile industry.

BRK -- Storms Never Last — October 18, 2023

Locator: 45810INV.

Best song ever to almost end up in the trash? Written by Jessi Colter.

Meanwhile, best call ever? Link here. 

 
The story linked at Barron's.

Berkshire Hathaway’s bet on an inactive Florida hurricane season looks like it will pay off, potentially netting the company several billion dollars.

Berkshire operates a major property and casualty insurer and decided early this year to take on about $15 billion of exposure if storms struck Florida during this year’s hurricane season. So far, there has been one notable storm to hit Florida, Hurricane Idalia, around September 1 and it caused insured damage of $3 billion to $5 billion, according to Moody’s RMS. That’s modest by current hurricane standards with Hurricane Ian in 2022 causing $50 billion in insured damages. Berkshire’s share of the Idalia loss is likely to be small. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment. 

BRK class A stock is down 0.4% Tuesday to $525,320 and is up 12% this year, about two percentage points behind the S&P 500.

The peak of the hurricane season ends in mid October and while storms may occur into mid November, they tend to be less severe. There are no major storms developing now in the Atlantic Ocean. 

Berkshire has largely been out of the Florida hurricane market in recent years because its lead insurance executive, Ajit Jain, felt rates were inadequate to compensate for the risk. That changed this year. Jain and CEO Warren Buffett discussed the move at the company’s annual meeting in May.

So many story lines here. My favorite: the S&P this year -- and stock pickers should have done much,much better. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

TSM -- October 18, 2023

Locator: 45809INV.

Too much to cover here, so will simply provide the links. 

Folks are on their own.

Tech at the top, a tab.

Foxconn throws in the towel: won't chase high-end chips (euphemism for "Nvidia"). 

So, we're left with two? Nvidia and AMD? 

Nope. Three: Nvidia, AMD, and Silicon.

Apple: $3-trillion company --

• one trillion: iPhones, and other hardware/software
• one trillion: services; think cloudd
• one trillion: chips

Foxconn won't chase 4 nm and 3 nm technology. Say what.

Apple now at 3 nm.

And now, TSM: 2 nm now and 1 nm around the corner.

Wiki: link here.

TSM to build a huge new 2-nm / 1-nm facility in Taiwan. 

TSM — which produces chips for some of the world's largest tech companies including Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) — did not provide information on potential sites for new facilities. See below.

AMD CEO says she doesn't believe in moats.

Money is a moat. And TSM has a lot of money. Enough money to build brand new 1-nm / 2-nm facilities. 

Ticker: falling this past week; up 140% over past five years; up 45% over past year. P/E of 16 and pays 2%.

**************************
Deep In The Weeds

TSM had hoped to build the new facility in Longtan, northern Taiwan, but looks like it will have to build next to its current facility in south Taiwan, in Kaohsiung Chen Chi-mai. 

Maybe a map later, when I have more time. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Hasbro -- October 18, 2023

Locator: 45808INV.

I don't even know where to begin.

For me, this may simply be the biggest tech story of the day, for the week? The reason for the excitement was buried deep in the story.

Hasbro.

From the linked Barron's story:

Videogame players have rushed to join the imaginary world that exists inside Baldur’s Gate 3, but the likely financial impact of the game on Hasbro is no fantasy at all.

Baldur’s Gate 3, the videogame version of Dungeons & Dragons, has taken both the gaming world and social media by storm since it was released on Aug. 3. The videogame was created by developer Larian Studios, but Hasbro stands to gain nonetheless because its Wizards of the Coast unit owns the widely popular tabletop version of the role-playing game. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect the company to report third-quarter Wizards of the Coast and Digital gaming revenue of $390 million on Oct. 26, which is a jump from the same period last year’s $304 million. Franchise brand sales for the quarter are expected to be $1.02 billion, up from last year’s $814 million.

“We will likely make more money on Baldur’s Gate 3 than we have made on all of our film licensing for the last five to 10 years, combined,” Hasbro Chief Executive officer Chris Cocks said on the company’s second-quarter earnings call in August. That includes movies like Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, as well as recent Transformers and G.I. Joe films.

Jefferies analyst Andrew Uerkwitz wrote in a research note Tuesday that he expects management to offer more detail on the outlook for videogame-related revenue when it discloses the third-quarter results. He said he is “positively biased for management commentary regarding the WOTC [Wizards of the Coast] segment.”

Hasbro could use the good news. Analysts expect the company to post third-quarter revenue of $1.657 billion, which would be down from $1.676 billion a year earlier.

“They are refocusing on their core product lines—the toys and games—looking into their licensing, and really looking for new ways to reconnect with consumers coming off of the pandemic-fueled sales boom that the greater industry also benefited from, and essentially a terrible holiday season last year across the board where there were inventory jam ups,” Zahn said.

Eight Wells Coming Off Confidential List These Next Two Days -- October 18, 2023

Locator: 45807B.

Huge day; so much blogging; mostly about earnings; all good; we'll get back to these later this morning:

• BRK -- tropical storms
• Hasbro -- Nvidia
• Stockholm -- EVs
• Airlines -- huge profits
• P&G -- beats estimates
• WTI -- surges; even so, oil companies shares hold back
• anyone check out the S&P for the year so far? 
  

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: surges; up almost 3% overnight; breaches $89; up $2.39 in pre-market

Thursday, October 19, 2023: 46 for the month; 46 for the quarter, 616 for the year
39682, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Farthing 4-30-31-158N-100W-MBH, Church
39329, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIU 5-31H1, Jim Creek,
39281, conf, Oasis, Osprey 5401 43-22 2B, Todd,
37450, conf, Hess, Austin 105-1929H, Parshall,
36779, conf, BR, George 1B MBH, Pershing,

Wednesday, October 18, 2023: 41 for the month; 41 for the quarter, 611 for the year
39683, conf, Cresent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 4-19-18-158N-100W MBH,
39330, conf, CLR, Arthur 8-12H,
39282, conf, Oasis, Harrier 5401 43-22 6B,

RBN Energy: Petra Nova restart provides an intriguing test case for carbon-capture technology.

Second chances don’t always come around, but when they do, you’d do well to learn from your previous experiences and make the most of them. For the Petra Nova carbon-capture/enhanced-oil-recovery (EOR) project southwest of Houston, its previous three-year run largely confirmed the preconceived notions of critics as a highly touted project that fell short of expectations for a variety of economic and technical reasons. But it also enjoyed some significant successes, and now the facility has been given a second life, courtesy of a new owner and higher oil prices. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the long-awaited restart of the Petra Nova project, what its owner hopes to gain from it, and what it could mean for the carbon-capture industry.