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Saturday, October 14, 2023

A Bit Of Hyperbole? October 14, 2023

Locator: 45783HYPERBOLE.

Link here.

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The Sports Page

Friday, October 13, 2023.

The last time the Buffaloes will play a game on Friday the Thirteenth.

Look at that halftime score.

Murder In The US -- A Record? October 14, 2023

Locator: 45781B.

Link here.

The United States may be experiencing one of the largest annual percent changes in murder ever recorded ... the author is a crime analyst based in New Orleans and co-founder of AH Datalytics.

Not on my bingo card.

Not widely reported.

I seem to get statistics on everything ... so how did I miss this one? 

Wow, look at this lede:

Murder is down about 12 percent year-to-date in more than 90 cities that have released data for 2023, compared with data as of the same date in 2022. Big cities tend to slightly amplify the national trend—a 5 percent decline in murder rates in big cities would likely translate to a smaller decline nationally. But even so, the drop shown in the preliminary data is astonishing.

The good news comes with the caveat that murder is not uniformly falling everywhere. Memphis, for example, has experienced an uptick following the killing of Tyre Nichols in January. Additionally, even a record double-digit percent decline in murder in 2023 would still mean that a couple thousand more people will be murdered in America this year than in 2019. Finally, mass shootings are on the rise even as overall gun violence appears to be falling.

All of that said, the good news is, well, good. Murder is down 13 percent in New York City, and shootings are down 25 percent, relative to last year as of late May.
Murder is down more than 20 percent in Los Angeles, Houston, and Philadelphia. And, most significantly, murder is down 30 percent—30 percent!—or more in Jackson, Mississippi; Atlanta, Georgia; Little Rock, Arkansas; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; and others.

Explaining the trend is much more difficult than describing it. The cause of the Great Crime Decline of the 1990s, when murder fell 37 percent over six years, is still not fully understood, so any explanations of the current trend must remain in the hypothesis phase for now.
The national nature of both the surge in murder in 2020 and the apparent decrease this year suggests that national explanations will be more convincing than local anecdotes. Moreover, the factors that caused murder to begin to spike in the summer of 2020 may not be the same factors (now, theoretically, in reverse) that are contributing to its decline in 2023.

It is interesting. It doesn't seem like we've had much civil strife this past summer. Maybe it's just selective memory.

An Old Lime Rock Resources Well In Murphy Creek Shows Some Renewed Activity -- October 14, 2023

Locator: 45780B.

The well:

  • 18300, 1,562, Lime Rock Resources, Neal 1-33-28H-144-95, Murphy Creek, t2/10; cum 225K 8/14; cum 379K 8/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-202331258724723348119470197
BAKKEN7-20231001671030
BAKKEN6-20239229308229134650
BAKKEN5-2023311129112196875242419
BAKKEN4-2023301112109493158722760
BAKKEN3-2023311101112694671846365

 Four wells on two neighboring pads (one large pad?)

  • 17525, 1,414, Lime Rock Resources, Twist 31-4H, Murphy Creek, t4/10; 294K 8/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20233118571765236589249347
BAKKEN7-20237007693200
BAKKEN6-2023134345104223382225
BAKKEN5-20233112001168121296462526
BAKKEN4-20233010971118123068332559
BAKKEN3-202331122212351160842109419
  • 35654, 917, Lime Rock Resources, Twist 5-3-10H-143-95L, Murphy Creek, t8/19; 256K 8/23; note the high permit number for a well completed back in 2019;
oolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20233133203444944317251028270
BAKKEN7-202331393538491312220801496111
BAKKEN6-20232434763360895616551132127
BAKKEN5-202315214023366510129301050
BAKKEN4-202330487748811507225156241365
BAKKEN3-202331542154841870619433511026
BAKKEN2-2023275945567618195161111046
BAKKEN1-202332372597362200
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-202241984074391701420
BAKKEN9-20223024132377548618511315158
BAKKEN8-202231209120545383160212430
BAKKEN7-2022302545255961812175170198
  • 35655, 1,015, Lime Rock Resources, Neal 5-33-28H-144-95L, Murphy Creek, t8/19; 300K 8/23; note the high permit number for a well completed back in 2019;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2023312845289650131884863614
BAKKEN7-2023312801280252231822931482
BAKKEN6-2023302968298150401912782719
BAKKEN5-20233130193002523318553121125
BAKKEN4-2023302916289150891708401900
BAKKEN3-202331280328085174858202250

Change In Fortune In Two Wells Near Williston -- October 14, 2023

Locator: 45779B.

The well: : at $50 / bbl back in November, 2022 = $42,000 / month; most recently, 8/23, at $80 / bbl = $280,000 / month.

  • 20160, 2,173, Grayson Mill/Statoil / BEXP, Field 18-19 3H, Todd; t10/11; cum 194K 9/16; cum 291K 8/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2023293413343015357424631371109
BAKKEN7-202331349334521874636903031659
BAKKEN6-2023303633359122951354023251215
BAKKEN5-2023312825262327903273210821574
BAKKEN4-2023191114975205381096568460
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-20230000000
BAKKEN1-202349338612813910617
BAKKEN12-20223184482810791267863280
BAKKEN11-202230840796911109989782
BAKKEN10-20223186010031042112194556
BAKKEN9-20223085682997699293731
BAKKEN8-2022318988941049101598629
BAKKEN7-20223184386987891385558

The well: at $50 / bbl back in November, 2022 = $12,500 / month; most recently, 8/23, at $80 / bbl = $96,000 / month.

  • 19308, 1,235, Oasis, Glover 5601 12-17H, Wildcat/Tyrone, t6/11; cum 137K 12/14; cum 230K 8/23; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20233111378072690138812850
BAKKEN7-2023311208142827251627150814
BAKKEN6-2023301259106838691648747772
BAKKEN5-2023241150121828891500734666
BAKKEN4-202315151011202040165
BAKKEN3-2023265275532006677371280
BAKKEN2-20237001028700
BAKKEN1-2023158501526136090
BAKKEN12-20227277591419369151189
BAKKEN11-2022302472481315661478132
BAKKEN10-2022318347421948593355238
BAKKEN9-2022304974871343601320230
BAKKEN8-2022315975301751665446163

Niemitalo #19502 -- This Old Well -- Spud In 2008 -- Completed In 2011 -- Off Line Since Early 2021 -- Now Back On Line -- October 14, 2023

Locator: 45778B.

The well:

  • The Niemitalo 31-15XH (#19502) runs parallel to the Kinnoin 11-14H (#17081) which had an IP of 3,311, and has produced 534,267 bbls of oil as of 6/12. It was spudded 8/08.  (At $50/bbl, 400K bbls = $20 million.) 400,000 bbls in less than three years and it continues to produce at 10,000 bbls/month (at $75/bbl, 3/4 of a million dollars every month); t2/11; cum 426K 7/17; cum 515K 8/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2023319209427291191107455
BAKKEN7-20232159655310368047630
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-20230000000
BAKKEN1-20230000000
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-20220000000
BAKKEN9-20220000000
BAKKEN8-20220000000
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-20220000000
BAKKEN3-20220000000
BAKKEN2-20220000000
BAKKEN1-20220000000
BAKKEN12-20210000000
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20216343466344924920
BAKKEN6-202130180119691923071304526
BAKKEN5-2021261637172520730512951100
BAKKEN4-20212817291687176422542250
BAKKEN3-20213117931716238488848260
BAKKEN2-20212819581858230382737710
BAKKEN1-20213118842200257470346410
BAKKEN12-20203119781600299436343010

Taking a look at the map: it appears two new wells are being completed in the area -- #32123 and #32124.

Retail Theft -- Credit Card Company Source -- Updated April 13, 2023 -- Some Data Old -- October 14, 2023

Locator: 45777RETAIL.

Updates

Later, 10:30 p.m. CT: going down this rabbit hole was because I was curious if shoplifting was actually increasing (it appears it has) and, if so, why? I now feel very comfortable connecting the dots. One five-letter word connects the dots. And the theft of Tide is not due to "my" definition of shoplifting. Exhibit A: Portland, Oregon.



Later, 9:57 p.m. CT: in a sidebar e-mail discussion with a reader, a reader was surprised about Tide being under lock and key in the Target stores in the reader's home town. I didn't think much about it. I've been used to seeing high-priced, high-demand items under lock and key for a long time. The best example: Rogaine has been under lock and key for as long as I can remember.

I was kind of perplexed -- what was I missing? KSN-16, Joplin, Missouri, provides some help. Once you go down that rabbit hole, it never stops. But I still think folks are connecting important dots. Link here.

KSNF/KODE — Everyone needs it and if you buy if from Facebook Marketplace, chances are it’s stolen. According to the National Retail Federation’s 2022 Retail Security Survey, laundry detergent remains a staple for thieves just as it does for the average consumer. 

In fact, when breaking down the percentages of items stolen from retailers, detergent sits right behind designer clothes (34%) in second place at 21%

But what makes the clean commodity so popular among thieves? 

There’s a couple of reasons why it’s earned the moniker “liquid gold”: For starters, the desire for clean clothes extends to all social strata; rich or poor. A highly consumed product like detergent (or razors and baby formula) is always in need. This high demand assures thieves a quick turnaround. Along the same lines, detergent does not spoil which gives shoplifters an added layer of security to their haul. Finally, these pirates-of-Persil know that retailers have strict rules in place for employees to not interfere with shoplifters due to liabilities. 

Just recently, two California Big Lots managers were fired even after successfully stopping a man taking a cart full of stolen Tide jugs. Where do these ill-gotten-‘Gain(s)’ wind up? Often times right in your community’s Facebook marketplace. A search for ‘laundry detergent’ will turn up hundreds of results for local detergent sellers in many areas of the country.

I could go on all night but one gets the picture. Google shoplifting top items detergent Tide and one will get more than 550,000 hits in less than a second. 

Two big dots connected: Tide -- quick money to buy illicit drugs. 

By the way, a bit more searching reveals that shoplifting Tide is not likely the work of amateurs. This is "organized" crime and not shoplifting per se. The fog on this issue is starting to lift. Link here to a Denver story, July, 2023.

But there you have it. When a product is the #1 target of "organized" crime, no wonder it's under lock and key. For the record, Tide is not locked up in any of the big box stores, including both Walmart and Target, where I shop.

But it does suggest to me, that I may want to start stockpiling detergent. What's in our utility room?

Original Post

From credit card statistics, retail theft (shoplifting) by state, per capita, selected, link here, grouped by region. I did not find any state higher than ND / SD but I did not look at all states. If one finds a state higher than ND/SD let readers know (it turns out there are at least three).

  • North Dakota: 24% higher than national average. [Apparently oil workers like clean clothes also.]
  • South Dakota: 28% higher than national average.
  • Montana: 12% higher than national average.
  • Minnesota: 10% higher than national average.


  • California: 4% lower than national average.
  • Oregon: 6% lower than national average.
  • Washington: 8% lower than national average.


  • Mississippi: 15% higher than national average.
  • Alabama: 2% higher than national average.
  • Louisiana: less than 1% higher than national average. $270 per capita.

  • Texas: 12% lower than the national averag.
  • New Mexico: 4% higher than national average.
  • Arizona: 13% lower than national average.


  • Nation's capital, DC: 26% less than the national average.

Would this suggest in some states a very small group of folks are shoplifting high-priced items and in other states lots of shoplifters but engaged in small nickel-dime stuff? I honestly don't know. There is a lot of data but I'm not sure what it all means -- and, of course, retail theft must include both consumer- and employee-related.

So, let's check my theory. I haven't looked at Wyoming. I just did. Does Wyoming's data support my "theory"?

You can also check another "small" state: New Hampshire. And Vermont.

Maine? Maybe.

A different statistic:

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Self Check-Out 

Social media impact. 

The most recent "controversy" on self-checkout lanes at US retail stores started with this -- across the entire United States, repeat, across the entire United States, Walmart, which has 10,500 stores in the US, it was reported by local media and then spread across social media like wildfire: three Walmart stores in one city has removed all self-checkout lanes.

Say what you want but this sounds like a "test" by corporate headquarters to see if removing self-checkout lanes makes a difference. [Later, I'm wrong, here we go: wow, wow, wow -- I've just connected the dots -- it now all makes sense why there's an upsurge in shoplifting in the city in which Walmart has removed all self-checkout lanes. Wow, wow, wow. It connects the dots: Texas is now laying concertina wire along the border with New Mexico. Taking this a step further: the word is out: Texas will off free (Greyhound bus) transportation to points west and north. We're seeing the 21st century version of the underground railroad: families making their way to sanctuary states and sanctuary cities. Wow, wow. wow.  Why I love to blog.]

Let's say it's not a test. Let's say Walmart sees something in this city it sees nowhere else. That says more about that city than about pros/cons of self-checkout.

Surfing the net suggests retailers will take a page out of the Las Vegas casino playbook. Using facial recognition technology, retailers will concentrate on the 20% that account for 80% of consumer retail theft (shoplifting). That 80/20 rule? I think it's more like 95/5 across most of the US. 

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Texas

Everyday is a circus. 

I can't articulate how incredibly fun this area is. Everyday something happening. Today, I took Sophia to Daiso, and en route saw a huge party down at "Total Wines and More" -- O\one vendor --tequila -- has just completed 31 weeks of a national tour -- Rock And Roll Tequila -- based out of Miami -- one last month on tour -- will spend the last month in Texas. Whoo-hoo!

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The Book Page

This is really, really cool.

The writer of the Shakespeare plays was Sir Henry Neville, from a long line of a very, very important family during the reign of Henry VII, and perhaps before. The Neville family would have played key roles during the transition from Henry VII to Queen Anne (nine days) to Mary I to Elizabeth 1. 

It is most interesting to read biographies of British royalty during those periods to see if one can spot the Neville family.

I am now finishing Linda Porter's biography of Queen Mary 1, the first queen of England -- and I've run across the Neville name three times. Neville is in the index only twice. Neville, aka the bard, would have come of age during the last days of Henry VIII and would have started to reach his stride during the reign of Mary I. The next book I need to read is one that covers the transition from Mary 1 to Elizabeth 1 to see if I can find the dots of that period to connect with the dots of the Shakespearian plays.

One book? Rewriting The Renaissance

Really, really cool, the heroines of the Renaissance.

  • Isabella of Castille, 1451 - 1504. She and her husband financed an important voyages in the 1490s.
  • Katherine of Aragon: Henry VIII's first wife. Died after divorce, 1485 - 1536. Daughter of Isabella of Castille. And Ferdinand. Wow.
  • Catherine de Medici, 1519 - 1589.
    • Born into one of the most powerful families in Medieval Florence, Catherine de Medici was her own force to be reckoned with. She may not have been born with a crown on her head but the Medici money kept Henry II of France’s country and court afloat. Catherine is remembered for producing a great number of heirs and for fostering and betrothing her son to Mary, Queen of Scots.
  • Elizabeth I, 1533 - 1603. Contemporary of Sir Henry Neville, aka the bard.
  • Mary, Queen of Scots, 1542 - 1587.
    • My personal favorite Renaissance queen, Mary Queen of Scots has such a troubling history. The Scots have always been a rambunctious people, a people that don’t like to be told what to do or who their ruler is. Throw in religious divides and you have yourself Mary’s life. Mary was Catholic while many of the Scots wanted to be Protestant. After the death of her father, at six days old, Mary was queen. At age five she was sent to the safety of France to be raised at French court where she was betrothed to the French heir, Francis. She and Francis ruled for a short time, until his untimely death. She then went to Scotland to her rightful seat only to be pushed to abdication by the Scottish nobles. Seeking sanctuary from those who didn’t want her in Scotland, she went to England. Instead of sanctuary, Elizabeth I imprisoned and later executed the Scottish Queen.

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The Book Page

Bonus: a kletic poem. Not keltic (Celtic) but kletic.

Link here.

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NASCAR XFINITY

Playoffs.

Round of 8:

  • Las Vegas: today. For points and/or a win.
    • Herbst wins by 15 seconds -- holy mackerel
    • then Nemechek, Custer, C. Smith, Mayer, Allgaier, A. Hill, Jones, Hemric, and Riggs round out the top 10
  • Homestead-Miami: next week (October 21)
  • Martinsville, VA: weekend before Halloween

Championship: down to 4:

  • Phoenix: November 4.

A Slowly Sinking Balloon Vs A Sharp Pop -- October 14, 2023

Locator: 45776CHINA.

Updates

October 15, 2023: going bust. Peter Zeihan not mentioned.

Original Post

It is amazing how times have changed. Prior to Covid-19, it was reported incessantly that the Chinese economy would overtake the US by (insert your date here) and that China would someday buy the entire United States. 

Now? Not so much. 

Note the dates when these items were published:

UK-CEBR





Link here