Pages

Friday, October 13, 2023

3Q23 EV Sales -- October 13, 2023

Locator: 45773EVS.

Link here.

Such incredibly poor analysis. 

I'll try to find time over the weekend (probably while watching the Dallas Cowboys game) to do my own analysis and sort this all out. Such incredibly poor analysis. 

Later, this story sent to me by a reader, link here. I was going to post a screenshot but after reading the story -- this is mostly clickbait. End of story.

I'll get back to the first story linked above, over at TipRanks.

*************************
EV Sales -- The WSJ

Link here.


From the linked article:

The auto industry’s push to boost sales of electric vehicles is running into a cold, hard reality: buyers’ interest in these models is proving shallower than expected.
While EV sales continue to grow—rising 51% this year through September—the rate has slowed from a year earlier and unsold inventory is starting to pile up for some brands.
Some car companies, such as Ford Motor F -1.58%decrease; and Toyota Motor -2.16%decrease;  are tempering their expectations for EVs and shifting more resources into hybrids, which have been drawing consumers at a faster clip.

If these numbers continue to worsen, the longer the UAW remains on strike, the more likely Ford will pull back some of its already generous offers. 

The Incredible MRO Daniel Pad In Antelope-Sanish Has Been Updated -- October 13, 2023

Locator: 45772B.

Link here.

****************************
The Movie Page

An e-mail sidebar with a reader led me to respond to the reader with the e-mail note below. The reader had suggested I might be interested in The Lost City of Z(ed).

My reply:

1. I watched the movie -- Amazon Prime Video --- The Lost City of Zed --- my first thought -- this movie would have been a blockbuster had it starred a young Sean Connery directed by the "Bond" franchise, or a young Harrison Ford directed by the "Indiana Jones" franchise. As it was, it was too much of documentary -- sort of a "Downton Abbey in the jungle." That was earlier this afternoon.

2. This evening I watched Jamie Foxx (who was one of four producers) and Tommy Lee Jones in The Burial, currently being advertised heavily on Amazon Prime Video.  Tommy Lee Jones never, never, never fails to amaze me -- and at his age, he could have phoned his part in but he seemed to really take the part and live it -- Jamie Foxx was incredible. It's not the kind of movie I would see in a movie theater -- but on Prime Video, pretty amazing.The ending is predictable, but I have to say, there was a bit of me that was unsure -- it could have gone either way -- but even so, I was blown away even if you "knew" the ending. At the climax -- you had a fist pump, and ready to turn it off and go to bed -- but then there was more -- the "epilogue" was the cherry on top. The movie is currently being billed as the #1 movie in the US right now -- and Amazon would certainly have more reliable figures than Nielsen.

3. Both movies were based on true stories.

4. The Burial will likely be on my short list of all time favorites, but I probably wouldn't watch it again, as opposed to something like Citizen Kane or Casablanca which I never tire of watching and watch at least once a year.

5. Having said all that, I've watched Asteroid City not less than five times start to finish -- it came out in July, I believe -- it's the only movie I have ever bought on streaming TV and now own a copy that I can watch whenever I want on Amazon Prime for the rest of my life. Warning: if you are not a Wes Anderson fan and if you watch the movie only once, I can pretty much guarantee that you will hate the film. I had to watch it three times in the local movie theater before I became obsessed with it. I will now not watch it for a year -- and then come back to it and see how I still feel about it.
The above is a not-ready-for-prime-time-posting but wanted to post it for the archives.

Week 41: October 9, 2023 -- October 15, 2023

Locator: 45771B.

Top, top story:

  • Biden to visit Israel?
  • a 2nd carrier group headed to the Mideasrr
  • Israel: ready to start ground invasion of northern end of the Gaza Strip
    • reports that Hamas leader that orchestrated latest crisis is dead

Top North Dakota energy story:

  • North Dakota selected as one of seven sites by the Biden administration for a national hydrogen hub;

Top story:

  • US House with no speaker
  • US Senate won't confirm US military leaders; GOP leadership at its finest

Top international non-story story:

  • Russian-Ukraine war continues; drags on and on and on
    • Russia most recently invaded February 22, 2022
    • the war actually goes back to 2014
  • new world order in the Mideast
    • Saudi Arabia talking with Iran; cuts off talks with Israel

Top international non-story story:

Top international energy story:

  • New York refuses rate increases, refuses more money for offshore wind

Top national non-energy story:

  • GDPNow comes in at 5.2% for 3Q23 estimate;
  • mortgage rate trending toward 8%;
  • the rout in bonds -- the story won't go away
    • bankers setting new records borrowing funds from the Fed's "emergency" window
    • my wife has her own version of an "emergency window" -- her IRA
  • UAW strike in its fourth week
    • race to see who can idle the most workers the fastest: management (layoffs); union (strike)
  • first-world problem: Americans increasingly divided over self-checkout -- LOL
    • but the bigger story is being missed

Top national energy story:

  • North Dakota selected as one of seven sites by the Biden administration for a national hydrogen hub;

Focus on frackingmost recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:


Top North Dakota energy story:

  • North Dakota selected as one of seven sites by the Biden administration for a national hydrogen hub;

Geoff Simon's quick connects:

Bakken economy:

  • holding in there -- active rigs running about 37;

Commentary:

********************************
Eclipse


October 14, 2023



Five New Permits; Eleven Permits Renewed; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- October 13, 2023

Locator: 45770B.

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $87.69. Up 5.77%; up $4.78.

Five new permits, #40258 - #40262, inclusive:

  • Operators: Enerplus (4); Empire North Dakota, LLC
  • Fields: Murphy Creek (Dunn County); Starbuck (Bottineau)
  • Comments:
  • Empire North Dakota has a permit for a Whooping Crane well, NWSE 29-161-78, 
    • to be sited 2050 FSL and 1650 FEL
  • Enerplus has permits for four MC-Kudrna wells; SESE 100-144-95; 
    • to be sited 222 FSL and between 1134 FEL and 1236 FEL;

Eleven permits renewed:

  • CLR (7): two Elveida and three Bliss permits, all in Divide county, Sadler oil field; one Quale Federal permit and one Harms Federal permit, both in Antelope oil field, McKenzie County;
  • BR (4): four Carlsbad permits, Twin Valley, McKenzie County;

Two CO2 storage wells completed:

  • 39315, CLR, Quale Federal 3-1H2, , SENW 1-152-94, Antelope, McKenzie County;
  • 39316, CLR, Harms Federal 16-33H, SENW 1-152-94, Antelope, McKenzie County;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  1. 31212, 0, BR, Gladstone 5-1-13TFH,
  2. 33055, 2,796, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36A,
  3. 39304, 816, CLR, Meadowlark FIU 9-6H1,

Does This Complicate Fain's Negotiations -- Maybe A Strike At An F-150 Lightning Plant Is Just What Ford Needs -- October 13, 2023

Locator: 45769FORD.

Local Chevy dealers knocking $10K off the Silverado, Octobe4, 14, 2023.  I'm thinking inventory.

The emperor wears no clothes, February 18, 2023: link here.

For sales, mixed but better, June 5, 2023: link here.

Infrastructure lacking, August 19, 2023: link here.

Slashes prices on the F-150, August 25, 2023: link here.

Stealth launch, September 13, 2023: link here.

Does Ford have a problem, September 21, 2023: link here.

A theme that started to develop just about around the time the first strike action started was that there was a surplus of F-150 Lightnings and sales were beginning to slow ahead of winter.

I asked whether a strike slowing F-150 Lightning production was necessarily bad.

Today, in The WSJ, about the time UAW president Shawn Fain was spelling out new strike tactics, this story appeared: link here.

Ford Motor is considering cutting a work shift at the plant where it builds its electric F-150 Lightning pickup as demand for the EV truck falters, according to a memo from a United Auto Workers official.

The official, who leads the union’s local chapter that represents workers at the truck factory, said in a letter dated Tuesday that the automaker was considering canceling the shift and indicated that it was looking to build more gas-engine trucks instead.

“It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that our sales for the Lightning have tanked,” the union leader wrote in the memo, which was viewed by The Wall Street Journal.

The electric truck, which first rolled off assembly lines in April 2022, has been a central part of Ford’s EV strategy and its debut was a move by the company to capitalize on its brand popularity with pickup-truck drivers.

A Ford spokeswoman declined to comment on the possibility of eliminating a shift at the facility, and said there are some shorter-term schedule changes as it works through supply-chain disruptions and quality checks.

Sales of the EV pickup, which initially had long wait lists, have sputtered in recent months. Ford recorded a 45.8% drop in U.S. vehicle sales of its electric truck in the third quarter. Production of the vehicle halted over the summer as the Lightning plant went down for a scheduled six-week expansion. The factory came back online in August.

The company said that a temporary shutdown of the factory limited deliveries this summer, and the facility is now ready to increase production to meet customer demand.

The company has twice increased its output targets at the Dearborn, Mich. facility, to an annual production rate of 150,000 vehicles. Late last year, Ford added a third shift at the plant to meet its factory output goals.

More broadly, Ford has recently walked back some of its earlier EV ambitions. Company executives said in July that Ford would now produce 600,000 EVs annually by the end of 2024, extending the previous delivery target by a year. Ford also backed off a previous goal to produce two million EVs by the end of 2026.

“We expect the EV market to remain volatile until the winners and losers shake out,” Ford CEO Jim Farley told analysts on an earnings call in July.

Much more at the link, confirming a dismal outlook.

Generally when I think of Farley and Ford, I think of Ballmer and Microsoft. 

**************************
Politics

For the record, Peter Zeihan and I are on the same page of music when it comes to thoughts on Donald Trump.

MRO Wells Now Reporting -- The 2M-P-R-2T Pad

Locator: 45768B.

These wells are tracked here.

The wells:

  • 38040, loc/A (10/23), MRO, TR USA 24-7H, Bailey, 612 FNL 490 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2023312965029648225443799137558327
BAKKEN7-2023313160931637246593004729752209
BAKKEN6-2023283901038970331994016339317728
BAKKEN5-20232441882417644663535353334161848
BAKKEN4-2023270091000

38041, loc/A (10/23), MRO, Terrel USA 24-7TFH, Bailey, 581 FNL 456 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94; no production data;

  • 38042, loc/A (10/23), MRO, Reems USA 14-7H, Bailey, 550 FNL 439 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2023312526525274222713025629913259
BAKKEN7-2023312955829539280872651726257184
BAKKEN6-2023302542025413301342667026108484
BAKKEN5-20232933868341535547132845310261736
BAKKEN4-20236121371175616244939882711074
  • 38043, loc/A (10/23), MRO, Pavlish USA 11-18TFH, Bailey, 519 FNL 414F FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94; no production data;
  • 38044, loc/A (10/23), MRO, Millie USA 21-18H, Bailey, 488 FNL 389 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94; no production data;
  • 38045, loc/NC (10/23), MRO, Magdalena USA 21-18TFH, Bailey, 241 FNL 1261 FEL, lot 1 18-146-94; no production data;

Nearest well of interest is off line:

  • 16666, 502, MRO, Bob Tuhy 44-19H, Bailey, t11/08; cum 519K 2/23; off line; jump in production 6/15;

The End Of Covid -- As A National Public Health Concern -- October 13, 2023

Locator: 45767COVID.

This is quite remarkable. After years of combining pneumonia, "seasonal flu," and Covid in its weekly surveillance update, the CDC appears to be going back to separating out Covid from "seasonal flu."

It appears the CDC no longer posts that most important graphic that combines the three.

All I could find today was the graphic on "seasonal flu." The Covid data is still there but not in that simple chart that the CDC was posting as recently as last week.

I take this as evidence that from a national public health point of view, Covid has "disappeared" as a concern. Sure, we'll get stories of new variants and weekly statistics of new cases and new hospitalizations, but from my perspective, Covid is "gone" based on CDC surveillance data released today.

October 6, 2023: this was the last time this graphic was shown -- it is no long being posted by the CDC suggesting we're back to "normal."

****************************
The Book Page

Linda Porter's 1995 biography of Queen Mary, the first queen of England.

I'm coming near the end, maybe two-thirds of the way through the book.

The first third of the book was about King Henry III's first two daughters, Mary and Elizabeth, and then a bit about his first and only son, Edward.

The middle fifth of the book moved very, very quickly, covering Edward's short life, "king" at age nine and dead at age sixteen. 

The next fifth of the book moved quickly as the throne went from Jane Grey (for nine days) and then to Mary, the first queen of England. And that's where I am now.

Page 229: 

"Those spared by the weather might equally succumb to disease. Epidemics did not always follow bad harvests but their effects were just as devastating. in 1558, the year of Mary's own demise, a virus probably related to influenza caused one of the greatest losses of life in England in a single year since the Black Death.'

From wiki:

In 1557, a pandemic strain of influenza emerged in Asia, then spread to Africa, Europe, and eventually the Americas. This flu was highly infectious and presented with intense, occasionally lethal symptoms. Medical historians like Thomas Short, Lazare Rivière and Charles Creighton gathered descriptions of catarrhal fevers recognized as influenza by modern physicians attacking populations with the greatest intensity between 1557 and 1559.
The 1557 flu saw governments, for possibly the first time, inviting physicians to instill bureaucratic organization into epidemic responses. It is also the first pandemic where influenza is pathologically linked to miscarriages, given its first English names, and is reliably recorded as having spread globally. Influenza caused higher burial rates, near-universal infection, and economic turmoil as it returned in repeated waves. 

If you know, you know. 

The book above was published almost fifteen years before Covid-19 identified.

****************************
Queen Mary: The First Queen Of England

Linda Porter, c. 1995, p. 401:

Disease was stalking Mary's kingdom. In 1557, Charles Wriothesley wrote in his Chornicle:
'This summer reigned in England diverse strange and new sicknesses, taking men and women in their heads; as strange agues and fevers, whereof many died.'
In the countryside and in the towns people began to fall ill with unexplained fevers and a general malaise that sapped their strength, often over a long period of time.
Death was not always sudden, but for many it was inseparable.
During the summer of 1558, the situation deteriorated, accelerating to produce the greatest mortality crisis off the 16th century.
The result was a demographic disaster of huge proportions, with nearly 40 per cent of the country affected.
In 1558 / 1559, the number of deaths reported was 124 per cent above the national average. Burials exceeded baptisms in parish registers almost everywhere.
Among the major towns of England, only Hull and Shrewsbury were not severely affected. The situation grew worse as the summer gave way to autumn. In the fields the harvest lay ungathered:
'Much corn was lost .. for lack off workmen and labourers;"

... affected, more than half the people in Portsmouth, Southampton and the island (Isle of Wight), itself
... a month later, in Dover, people arriving from Calais dying daily
... the epidemic came after a year of good harvests and was particularly deadly among the well-nourished ruling class. This points to it being a new type of virus, probably related to influenze
... it was certainly not the plague, whose symptoms were well known and recognizsed, nor does it seem to have been an outbreak of the sweating sickness, which had last visited England in 1551 ... sweating sickness, also, most likely viral
... chief among the victims of that terrible ear: Cardinal Pole and Queen Mary herself.

Well read infectious disease scientists, like Tony Fauci, were very, very aware of these regional and global epidemics, and the fact that "we" still had no specific cure for viral diseases, like the antibiotics we have for bacterial disease. 

The more one reads ... well, if you know, you know.

Epilogue:

Reginald Pole (12 March 1500 – 17 November 1558) was an English cardinal of the Catholic Church and the last Catholic archbishop of Canterbury, holding the office from 1556 to 1558, during the Counter-Reformation. Died of the same viral disease as Queen Mary, about twelve hours later.

WTI Update -- October 13, 2023

Locator: 45766WTI.

Conflicting stories why oil has surged.

Comment: some analysts are overthinking this.

A new world order: Saudi Arabia and Iran have made "their" first phone call in decades.

USA seen in weakest situation since WWII.

A window of opportunity.

WTI

  • up 5.66%
  • up $4.69 / bbl
  • trading at $87.60

The breaking point: Rod Stewart turning down the Saudis.

UAW Today -- October 13, 2023

Locator: 45765UAW.

  • UAW today: link here.
    • change in tactics
    • no longer waiting until Friday to make next announcement
    • new strikes can / could happen at any time
  • Headlines:
    • F: "our best and final offer is on the table"
  • Interpretation:
    • time to tweak the details
    • dot the i's and cross the t's
  • Comments
    • it would behoove management to have a psychologist, psychiatrist, hostage negotiator on contract

Let's Put This In Perspective -- October 13, 2023

Locator: 45764INV.

"Everybody's" whining about the $60-billion price tag, XOM might pay for PXD.

Warren Buffett: BNSF (BNI) -- $45 billion, years ago.

AMD: Xilinx - $50 billion, a few years ago.

Microsoft: Activision: $69 billion. Today.

****************************
Pop Quiz For The Day

I have absolutely no interest in satellites. I do not invest in satellite companies. I have no interest in Viastat.

So, why would I post this story?

Link here.

I will post a few paragraphs from the linked story in which "the answer" is hidden.

In July, it looked as if the satellite data and services provider would have to take a big write-off due to trouble with a satellite already in orbit. But it turns out that management on the ground has been able to minimize the problem, while insurance will limit the damage as well. 

In July, Viasat announced that an “unexpected event” happened during the deployment of the reflector of a new communications satellite, the ViaSat-3 F1, which is also sometimes referred to as ViaSat-3 Americas. The reflector is essentially the dish-like part of a satellite that collects and focuses data streams.  

Shares fell 28%, wiping out some $1.5 billion in market capitalization. It was a harsh reaction, but it is easy to see why the drop was large. The cost of that satellite was about $700 million.

Thursday, Viasat said that while the new satellite’s usefulness is compromised, the company will still be able to meet its commitments to customers. It isn’t a complete write-off; there is no need to replace the satellite. The overall business can manage through the loss.

The new satellite will function at about 10% of its planned capacity.

DVN, PXD, OXY -- October 13, 2023

Locator: 45763INV.

Link here


Re-posting from yesterday:

************************************
PXD, OXY, DVN

  • check out market cap of PXD and OXY
  • today, 2:50 p.m., October 12, 2023:
    • OXY: $55.94 billion; p/e = 11; div = 1.14%; shares trading at $65 / share;
    • PXD: $56.04 billion; p/e = 10; div = 6.85%; shares trading at $240 / share;

Now, let's take a look at DVN:

  • DVN: $30 billion; p/e = 6; div = 10.7%; shares trading at $47 / share;

I was so overweight in oil I quit buying "new" oil about two years ago:

  • some exceptions;
  • I consider oil a "utility" now.

I still won't buy "new" oil (with exceptions) but I think I've found another exception.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Wow, Wow, Wow! The Seven Sisters — Heartland Hydrogen Hub — October 13, 2023

Locator: 45761H2HUBS.

Link here. Charles Kennedy.

  • Mid-Atlantic H2: blue
  • Appalachian H2: deep blue
  • California H2: deep blue
  • Gulf Coast (Houston) H2: blue
  • Heartland H2: blue
  • Midwest H2: blue
  • Pacific Northwest H2: deep blue

Link here.

Link here.

Link here.

Link here.

Why North Dakota “won”: for its good writing. LOL.

The “meat” of the application, penned by Miss North Dakota:

The Hub plans to offer unique opportunities of equity ownership with the Mandan, Hidatsa and Arikara Nation and to local farmers and farmer co-ops through a private sector partnership that will allow local farmers to receive more competitive pricing for clean fertilizer. These initiatives can help reduce roughly 1 million metric tons per year of carbon emissions—roughly equivalent to the annual emissions of 220,000 gasoline-powered cars—while extending profit-sharing and benefits from the expanding hydrogen economy to wider communities, a model with the potential for replication across the Midwest. 
The Heartland Hydrogen Hub’s use of open access storage and pipeline infrastructure will create a hydrogen network accessible to both current and new hydrogen users. The Heartland Hydrogen Hub has committed tens of millions of dollars to create an education consortium to oversee career development, workforce training, apprenticeship programs, and K-12 STEM education, which includes several tribal colleges and universities. A goal of the Heartland Hydrogen Hub is to contract hundreds of millions of dollars for businesses owned by women, minorities, disabled veterans, disadvantaged communities, or LGBTQ persons.

JPM: Bank Reports BTE — October 13, 2023

Locator: 45760BANKS.

Link here.

BlackRock had a great quarter also.

Amazing How Fast Inflation Drops When Supply Chains Improve — Liz — October 13, 2023

Locator: 45758ECON.

Now it’s disinflation and deflation.

Liz Sonders: food disinflation.

Liz Sonders: vehicle deflation.

On Top Of Everthing Else -- It's -- Wait For It -- Friday The Thirteenth -- October 13, 2023

Locator: 45756B.

WTI: $86.15. Up almost 4% as Israel prepares to invade the northern Gaza Strip. [WTI up 4.5%, still pre-market.]

Sunday, October 15, 2023: 34 for the month; 34 for the quarter, 604 for the year
39685, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 3-19-18-158N-100W-MBH,
39332, conf, CLR, Arthur 10-12H,
38922, conf, Oasis, Kestrel 5401 43-22 2B,

Saturday, October 14, 2023: 31 for the month; 31 for the quarter, 601 for the year
39429, conf,  Petro-Hunt, Dean Wormer 149-102-33D-28-4H,
38275, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-3,

Friday, October 13, 2023: 29 for the month; 29 for the quarter, 599 for the year
39430, conf, Petro-Hunt, D Annunzio 148-102-6B-7-1H
39333, conf, CLR, Hegler 6-13H,
38274, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-4,

RBN Energy: "ring of fire" eclipse to stress power grids from California to Texas. Even the Druids could have made this forecast (prediction?).

The uncertainties around solar power are well understood. When the sun doesn’t shine as much as expected, power grids that rely heavily on solar must turn elsewhere to meet consumer demand. And while a shortfall in solar generation can be tricky to navigate, the difference between actual and forecast levels is typically only a few percentage points, and power grids are usually ready and able to make up any difference. But what happens when the daytime sun is obscured for hours at a time? Much of the U.S. is about to find out. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll preview the path of the October 14 solar eclipse, detail its expected impact on the generation of electricity, and describe what steps are being taken to keep power grids performing as usual.

Types of Solar Eclipses

Figure 1. Types of Solar Eclipses. Source: American Astronomical Society

Before we get too far into any discussions about the eclipse’s impact on solar generation and the power grid, let’s get some basic definitions out of the way. A solar eclipse occurs when the moon passes between the sun and the Earth, casting a shadow on the Earth that either fully or partially blocks the sun’s light in some areas. During an annular solar eclipse (far right in Figure 1 above), like the one coming shortly, the moon is not big enough to cover the entire sun. This happens when the moon is farthest away from the Earth. The sun’s outer edge remains visible and forms a “ring of fire” in the sky, although most of the sunlight will be blocked in the eclipse’s path. During a total solar eclipse (far left), the moon completely covers the sun. This takes place when the moon’s orbit is closest to the Earth. A total solar eclipse is only visible if you are in the path where the moon casts its darkest shadow. A partial solar eclipse (middle) occurs when the moon obscures a portion of the sun. (There is also a hybrid solar eclipse, which occurs when the same eclipse changes from annular to total — or the reverse — along its path. It’s the rarest type of eclipse.)