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Sunday, October 8, 2023

World At War: GOP Won’t Confirm General Officer Promotions — October 8, 2023

Locator: 45697SENATE.

Link here.

I’ve long lost the bubble on this one but Peter Zeihan has commented on this issue.

Oh, that’s right. It’s an abortion issue.

One wonders if …

More: 

Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials have had a raw tone in their conversations with American counterparts this weekend, clearly shaken by an assault that, proportionally to their country’s population, is a bigger blow than the attacks of September 11, 2001, in the United States, the senior administration official said.

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Crickets

"10-7"was Israel's "9-11."

Obama: crickets.

Nobel Peace Prize winner.

Not even a note of condolences.

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Chicken Sandwich Indicator! How Bad The US Economy Really Is! October 8, 2023

Locator: 45696ECON.

Link here.


Meanwhile, sports: 

NASCAR:

  • ELIMINATED DRIVERS
  • Bubba Wallace
  • Ross Chastain
  • Kyle Busch
  • Brad Keselowski 
  • ADVANCING TO THE ROUND OF 8
    • William Byron
    • Martin Truex Jr.
    • Denny Hamlin
    • Kyle Larson
    • Chris Buescher
    • Christopher Bell
    • Tyler Reddick
    • Ryan Blaney

Baseball: Texas over Baltimore, 11 - 8. Texas Rangers lead series 2 - 0.

NFL: Chiefs, 27, at Minnesota, 20. Final.

NFL: Dallas Cowboys tonight. [Later, third quarter: doesn’t look good for Dallas. Three turnovers so far; not all Dak’s fault, but he still looks like the weak link. Following the interception, on the very next play, the 49ers score a touchdown. Late third period, 42 - 10. Holy mackerel! Another interception! This one is clearly on Dak. The 49ers put in their 2nd-string quarterback — the game is over with ten minutes left to play. Is Dak benched?]

NFL: the question with regard to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady seems to be answered, doesn’t it? Link here.

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How Much Time And Money Was Wasted? America's Potential Never Fails To Amaze Me -- Coal: The Transition Fuel -- October 8, 2023

Locator: 45695COAL.

It's very likely, had all the politics not been there, the California bullet train would have been completed by now. Dictators like Xi or Putin would have gotten it done. But that's not the way it's done in America.

I thought about "all" of that -- all the story lines -- when I saw this article at oilprice / ZeroHedge, link here:

And where is this new battery plant going to be built?

Kansas.

Johnson County, Kansas.

Lawrence, Kansas.

Lawrence Energy Center, Kansas. About thirty miles west of Kansas City, on the north side of Lawrence, probably can't been seen from I-76 to the south. Maybe. Right on the Kansas River. I-76 -- lined with wind turbines.

Wow, talk about controversy.

Folks are nuts.

So many story lines in that article.

The one that caught my eye: another huge success story -- for MAGA -- President Biden's inflation reduction act -- and for he (Biden) won't be rewarded by the Jayhawks. 

This about says it all.

A reminder: China is building a new coal power plant every day; Kansas is simply extending the life of one plant a few years long. Call it was it is: coal is a transition fuel. LOL.



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Nvidia -- Update -- Feature Story -- The WSJ -- October 8, 2023

Locator: 45694NVIDIA.

Link here. 

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Three More Spectacular Enerplus Hay Draw Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- October 8, 2023

Locator: 45693HAYDRAW.

The Enerplus Hay Draw wells in the Little Knife are tracked here. They are simply incredible. Three Hay Draw wells coming off confidential list this next week:

  • 38834, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-344-2H, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20233138351439
7-20233632662862
6-20233508956937
5-20234049059119
4-202394260
  • 38838, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-34-6H, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20232102638092
7-20232761349876
6-20234722084672
5-20232712344961
4-20231000
  • 38837, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-34-5H, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-202351727107135
7-20233167555940
6-20234757279086
5-20232578739218
4-20233070

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A Meme Is A Meme Is A Meme -- At Least In The Bakken -- October 8, 2023

Locator: 45692B.

Remember all that talk about daughter wells doing so much worse than parent wells in unconventional plays? Another meme. It gets tedious.

Almost all wells being reported in the Bakken these days are daughter wells, and they are simply spectacular.

We'll go through some of them later today.

***********************
Word Of The Day

Ebonpoint.

I've never seen that word before.

The First Queen of England, Linda Porter, c. 1995, p. 48.

From the Middle French, en bon point. In good condition. First used as a noun in England in the 17th century. Shakespeare?

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Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- October 8, 2023

Locator: 45691B.

The wells:

  • 39683, conf, Cresent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 4-19-18-158N-100W MBH, Winner, no production data,
  • 39330, conf, CLR, Arthur 8-12H, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 39282, conf, Oasis, Harrier 5401 43-22 6B, Todd, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20233235130686
7-20232947924225
6-20233051924803
5-20233041524510
4-202322951434
  • 39684, conf,  Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Farthing 3-30-31-158N-100W-MBH, Church, no production data,
  • 39283, conf, Oasis, Kestrel 5401 43-22 5BX, Todd,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20233356431690
7-20232686223583
6-20232896123144
5-20232904920741
4-202334572261
  • 36780, conf, BR, George 1C TFH, 39331, conf, CLR, Arthur 9-12H1, Pershing, no production data,
  • 39685, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 3-19-18-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data,
  • 39332, conf, CLR, Arthur 10-12H, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 38922, conf, Oasis, Kestrel 5401 43-22 2B, Todd,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20233157728684
7-20232779523362
6-20232854521865
5-20233095424156
4-202329251617
  • 39429, conf,  Petro-Hunt, Dean Wormer 149-102-33D-28-4H, Moline, no production data,
  • 38275, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-3, Blue Buttes,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20232071524074
7-20232608549822
6-20231948730988
5-20233067545606
4-20232986235719
  • 39430, conf, Petro-Hunt, D Annunzio 148-102-6B-7-1H, Boxcar Butte, no production data,
  • 39333, conf, CLR, Hegler 6-13H, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 38274, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-4, Blue Buttes,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20231648741763
7-20231882733253
6-20232032430870
5-20233000842756
4-20232864139550
  • 39453, conf, Slawson, Golden Eye Federal 3-2H, Sanish, no production data,
  • 39334, conf, CLR, Hegler 7-13H1, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 38834, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-344-2H, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20233138351439
7-20233632662862
6-20233508956937
5-20234049059119
4-202394260
  • 39335, conf, CLR, Hegler 8-13H, Little Knife no production data,
  • 39651, conf, Ovintiv, Eide 150-99-6-7-5H, Garden, no production data,
  • 39336, conf, CLR, Hegler 9-13H1, Little Knife no production data,
  • 38837, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-34-5H, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-202351727107135
7-20233167555940
6-20234757279086
5-20232578739218
4-20233070
  • 39650, conf, Ovintiv, Fleck 150-99-6-7-9HLW, Sandrocks, no production data,
  • 39337, conf, CLR, Hegler 10-13H, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 38838, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-34-6H, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20232102638092
7-20232761349876
6-20234722084672
5-20232712344961
4-20231000
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Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- October 8, 2023

Locator: 45690B.

Wednesday, October 18, 2023: 41 for the month; 41 for the quarter, 611 for the year
39683, conf, Cresent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 4-19-18-158N-100W MBH,
39330, conf, CLR, Arthur 8-12H,
39282, conf, Oasis, Harrier 5401 43-22 6B,

Tuesday, October 17, 2023: 38 for the month; 38 for the quarter, 608 for the year
39684, conf,  Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Farthing 3-30-31-158N-100W-MBH,
39283, conf, Oasis, Kestrel 5401 43-22 5BX,
36780, conf, BR, George 1C TFH,

Monday, October 16, 2023: 35 for the month; 35 for the quarter, 605 for the year
39331, conf, CLR, Arthur 9-12H1,

Sunday, October 15, 2023: 34 for the month; 34 for the quarter, 604 for the year
39685, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 3-19-18-158N-100W-MBH,
39332, conf, CLR, Arthur 10-12H,
38922, conf, Oasis, Kestrel 5401 43-22 2B,

Saturday, October 14, 2023: 31 for the month; 31 for the quarter, 601 for the year
39429, conf,  Petro-Hunt, Dean Wormer 149-102-33D-28-4H,
38275, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-3,

Friday, October 13, 2023: 29 for the month; 29 for the quarter, 599 for the year
39430, conf, Petro-Hunt, D Annunzio 148-102-6B-7-1H
39333, conf, CLR, Hegler 6-13H,
38274, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-4,

Thursday, October 12, 2023: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 596 for the year
None.

Wednesday, October 11, 2023: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 596 for the year
39453, conf, Slawson, Golden Eye Federal 3-2H,
39334, conf, CLR, Hegler 7-13H1,
38834, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-344-2H,

Tuesday, October 10, 2023: 23 for the month; 23 for the quarter, 593 for the year
39335, conf, CLR, Hegler 8-13H,

Monday, October 9, 2023: 22 for the month; 22 for the quarter, 592 for the year
39651, conf, Ovintiv, Eide 150-99-6-7-5H,
39336, conf, CLR, Hegler 9-13H1,
38837, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-34-5H,

Sunday, October 8, 2023: 19 for the month; 19 for the quarter, 589 for the year
39650, conf, Ovintiv, Fleck 150-99-6-7-9HLW,
39337, conf, CLR, Hegler 10-13H,
38838, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-34-6H,

Saturday, October 7, 2023: 16 for the month; 16 for the quarter, 586 for the year
None.
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Another Busy, Busy Day -- October 8, 2023

Locator: 45689B.

At the top: college football yesterday -- link here -- how much money lost by gamblers -- mush have been huge -- just some of the upsets:

  • comments:
    • USC was atrocious last night; three overtime periods; win with a two-point conversion
    • Louisville stunned Notre Dame
    • the UCLA "upset" was not a real upset; UCLA was favored by 3.5 points going into the game; the ranking was simply wrong
    • must-see video: Miami losing to Georgia Tech 
      • worst-ever decision by coach
      • coach blames player

In the queue today:

  • in general
    • Hamas: why?
    • college football yesterday
    • NASCAR: yesterday and today
  • high interest rates killing renewable energy
    • consider the source, but this is one of his better posts; having said that, not sure he's correct; needs to be fact checked: NYSE suggest NEP fell 24% in the past five days; but has fallen 53% in past month
    • Javier Blas: best observation in some time --  EU solar in huge trouble; blames high energy prices -- say what? Link here.
    • definition of insanity -- Twain's Musctache -- link here.
  • EVs -- plenty of money out there; recession? what recession -- look at Volvo (below)
    • Tesla's China-made EV sales volume falls 10.9% year/year (September)
    • world EV sales: 18% of world auto sales
      • registrations up 45% y/y (August)
    • electric car sales to private buyers fall sharply
      • private EV sales are nosediving in the UK
    • US Treasury, IRS announce new tax-incentive guidelines to spur EV sales
    • Volvo EVs are in demand across the US; sales rise 631% y/y (September)
  • Wrap -- The WSJ
    • Israel's opportunity to destroy Hamas -- The WSJ
    • Nvidia -- The WSJ
    • deficits and Treasury bonds: not out of the woods yet; not by a long shot -- The WSJ
    • the US economy's secret weapon: seniors with money to spend -- The WSJ
    • the real problem for Big Box stores: organized crime -- The WSJ
    • the oil patch is primed for an era of megadeals -- The WSJ
    • autopay costing consumers more in interest -- The WSJ
  • AMD: to have 5% share of the AI chip market at end of 2024 -- analyst; link here;
  • Nvidia
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Rumored XOM-PXD Is Sure Taking A Long Time To Play Out -- October 8, 2023

Locator: 45688XOM.

Link here.

The deal has been rumored for a long, long time but chatter seemed even greater this past week -- and yet, no news yet, mid-weekend. Having said that, these deals usually get announced Monday morning.

But.

From the linked story:

Ultimately, your view of this deal comes down to your view on oil prices. Pioneer has been so successful, in part, because a few years ago, when oil prices were a lot lower than they are now, they didn’t believe the naysayers saying that oil was finished, and that alternative energy was taking over. They took advantage of that conventional wisdom and went out and acquired assets in the Permian Basin while they were on sale. Exxon is now saying that they believe that oil will go even higher from here and, to borrow a phrase from the bond market, stay higher for longer.
However, believing that when crude is currently trading in a $80-$130 range is a lot less convincing when compared to the $40-$60 range it was in when PXD made those moves.

So, we'll see. 

XOM has $30 billion cash. 

The deal: $60 billion. 

Years ago, Warren Buffett / BRK bought BSNF (BNI) for $45 billion, if I recall correctly.

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